Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... An embedded mid-level short wave moves into the Southwest Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday as a more zonal flow pattern emerges across the central U.S. while more pronounced troughing continues across the Northeast. The arrival of stronger westerly flow aloft subsequent strengthening lee cyclone across the southern Plains could bring stronger winds to portions of the southern High Plains and West TX on Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday. A broad upper-level ridge builds over the central U.S. over the weekend into early next week straddled by troughing across the West and Northeastern CONUS. ...Southeast U.S.... Although dry conditions across the Southeast will persist with minimal recent precipitation and moderately dry fuels in place, winds should be relatively light with a more diffuse surface pressure gradient in place. Increasing boundary layer moisture ahead of a surface cyclone on Day 4/Friday will further limit the fire weather threat across the Southeast and FL, with rainfall expected Day 5/Saturday as the surface low and frontal boundary translates eastward along the northern Gulf Coast. ...Southern/Central Plains... Lee surface troughing and increasing westerly flow aloft will promote enhanced surface winds across the Southern Plains on Day 3/Thursday before a cold front moves through the region Day 4/Friday. However, anomalously high mid/upper-level Pacific moisture and cloud cover being ushered into the Southwest could be a considerable mitigating factor in suppressing a greater fire weather concern in terms of RH reductions across the Southern Plains late this week, limiting predictability in a broader critical fire weather event. Ensemble guidance consensus continues to show an overall favorable mid/upper level westerly flow pattern for dry, downslope conditions across the central and southern High Plains early next week. However, timing and magnitude of surface cyclone development and return flow events is still nebulous, which precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 12/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Southeast and Florida... Broad northwesterly flow aloft and offshore flow trajectories at the surface over the Southeast will maintain a dry boundary layer across the region for Wednesday. West-southwest winds across the Piedmont region will increase to between 10-15 mph by Wednesday afternoon in response to a surface trough moving through the Northeast. These winds coupled with relative humidity below 25% at times and dry fuels supports an elevated fire weather threat across GA and the Carolinas. A more west-northwesterly wind component across the FL Peninsula should alleviate fire weather concerns along the immediate FL Gulf Coast as marine influence takes precedence Wednesday. However, dry conditions including relative humidity below 30% (nearing 20% locally) and breezy winds should maintain an elevated fire weather risk across the bulk of the FL Peninsula where dry fuels remain. ..Williams.. 12/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced embedded impulse, and accompanying 500 mb jet streak, will pivot southeast along the backside of the near-stationary East Coast upper trough, supporting continued dry offshore flow across the Southeast tomorrow (Wednesday). By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip below 30 percent over several areas, from the Carolinas to Florida. Surface wind fields will not be overly intense, with sustained northwesterly surface winds expected to be around 10 mph (perhaps 15 mph locally) across the Southeast. However, low-end Elevated highlights have been introduced given the dry low-level conditions amid curing fuels, which should support at least localized wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Southeast and Florida... Broad northwesterly flow aloft and offshore flow trajectories at the surface over the Southeast will maintain a dry boundary layer across the region for Wednesday. West-southwest winds across the Piedmont region will increase to between 10-15 mph by Wednesday afternoon in response to a surface trough moving through the Northeast. These winds coupled with relative humidity below 25% at times and dry fuels supports an elevated fire weather threat across GA and the Carolinas. A more west-northwesterly wind component across the FL Peninsula should alleviate fire weather concerns along the immediate FL Gulf Coast as marine influence takes precedence Wednesday. However, dry conditions including relative humidity below 30% (nearing 20% locally) and breezy winds should maintain an elevated fire weather risk across the bulk of the FL Peninsula where dry fuels remain. ..Williams.. 12/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced embedded impulse, and accompanying 500 mb jet streak, will pivot southeast along the backside of the near-stationary East Coast upper trough, supporting continued dry offshore flow across the Southeast tomorrow (Wednesday). By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip below 30 percent over several areas, from the Carolinas to Florida. Surface wind fields will not be overly intense, with sustained northwesterly surface winds expected to be around 10 mph (perhaps 15 mph locally) across the Southeast. However, low-end Elevated highlights have been introduced given the dry low-level conditions amid curing fuels, which should support at least localized wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Southeast and Florida... Broad northwesterly flow aloft and offshore flow trajectories at the surface over the Southeast will maintain a dry boundary layer across the region for Wednesday. West-southwest winds across the Piedmont region will increase to between 10-15 mph by Wednesday afternoon in response to a surface trough moving through the Northeast. These winds coupled with relative humidity below 25% at times and dry fuels supports an elevated fire weather threat across GA and the Carolinas. A more west-northwesterly wind component across the FL Peninsula should alleviate fire weather concerns along the immediate FL Gulf Coast as marine influence takes precedence Wednesday. However, dry conditions including relative humidity below 30% (nearing 20% locally) and breezy winds should maintain an elevated fire weather risk across the bulk of the FL Peninsula where dry fuels remain. ..Williams.. 12/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced embedded impulse, and accompanying 500 mb jet streak, will pivot southeast along the backside of the near-stationary East Coast upper trough, supporting continued dry offshore flow across the Southeast tomorrow (Wednesday). By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip below 30 percent over several areas, from the Carolinas to Florida. Surface wind fields will not be overly intense, with sustained northwesterly surface winds expected to be around 10 mph (perhaps 15 mph locally) across the Southeast. However, low-end Elevated highlights have been introduced given the dry low-level conditions amid curing fuels, which should support at least localized wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Southeast and Florida... Broad northwesterly flow aloft and offshore flow trajectories at the surface over the Southeast will maintain a dry boundary layer across the region for Wednesday. West-southwest winds across the Piedmont region will increase to between 10-15 mph by Wednesday afternoon in response to a surface trough moving through the Northeast. These winds coupled with relative humidity below 25% at times and dry fuels supports an elevated fire weather threat across GA and the Carolinas. A more west-northwesterly wind component across the FL Peninsula should alleviate fire weather concerns along the immediate FL Gulf Coast as marine influence takes precedence Wednesday. However, dry conditions including relative humidity below 30% (nearing 20% locally) and breezy winds should maintain an elevated fire weather risk across the bulk of the FL Peninsula where dry fuels remain. ..Williams.. 12/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced embedded impulse, and accompanying 500 mb jet streak, will pivot southeast along the backside of the near-stationary East Coast upper trough, supporting continued dry offshore flow across the Southeast tomorrow (Wednesday). By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip below 30 percent over several areas, from the Carolinas to Florida. Surface wind fields will not be overly intense, with sustained northwesterly surface winds expected to be around 10 mph (perhaps 15 mph locally) across the Southeast. However, low-end Elevated highlights have been introduced given the dry low-level conditions amid curing fuels, which should support at least localized wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on New Year's Day across parts of southern California and Arizona. ...Southern CA to AZ... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of southern CA Thursday morning, before dampening as it shifts eastward across parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region later in the period. Cooling aloft atop modestly increasing low-level moisture will support some early-day thunderstorm potential across coastal southern CA. Guidance continues to vary regarding the strength, trajectory, and magnitude of attendant flow fields of this system as it approaches the coast. The somewhat stronger and farther south solutions (such as the 12Z NAM/RRFS) depict potential for strong storm development offshore, which could affect near-coastal areas of southern CA during the morning before weakening. Other guidance (such as the 12Z ECMWF) has trended northward, bringing stronger midlevel flow across southern CA, but also greater displacement between substantial cooling aloft and the more favorable low-level moisture. In general, confidence in sufficient strengthening of flow within this weak buoyancy regime remains too low to include severe probabilities. Uncertainty regarding the evolution of the shortwave extends downstream into parts of the Desert Southwest, but an area of modestly enhanced low-level moisture across southwest AZ could support isolated storm development later in the day into the evening, as some cooling aloft overspreads the region. ..Dean.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on New Year's Day across parts of southern California and Arizona. ...Southern CA to AZ... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of southern CA Thursday morning, before dampening as it shifts eastward across parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region later in the period. Cooling aloft atop modestly increasing low-level moisture will support some early-day thunderstorm potential across coastal southern CA. Guidance continues to vary regarding the strength, trajectory, and magnitude of attendant flow fields of this system as it approaches the coast. The somewhat stronger and farther south solutions (such as the 12Z NAM/RRFS) depict potential for strong storm development offshore, which could affect near-coastal areas of southern CA during the morning before weakening. Other guidance (such as the 12Z ECMWF) has trended northward, bringing stronger midlevel flow across southern CA, but also greater displacement between substantial cooling aloft and the more favorable low-level moisture. In general, confidence in sufficient strengthening of flow within this weak buoyancy regime remains too low to include severe probabilities. Uncertainty regarding the evolution of the shortwave extends downstream into parts of the Desert Southwest, but an area of modestly enhanced low-level moisture across southwest AZ could support isolated storm development later in the day into the evening, as some cooling aloft overspreads the region. ..Dean.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on New Year's Day across parts of southern California and Arizona. ...Southern CA to AZ... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of southern CA Thursday morning, before dampening as it shifts eastward across parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region later in the period. Cooling aloft atop modestly increasing low-level moisture will support some early-day thunderstorm potential across coastal southern CA. Guidance continues to vary regarding the strength, trajectory, and magnitude of attendant flow fields of this system as it approaches the coast. The somewhat stronger and farther south solutions (such as the 12Z NAM/RRFS) depict potential for strong storm development offshore, which could affect near-coastal areas of southern CA during the morning before weakening. Other guidance (such as the 12Z ECMWF) has trended northward, bringing stronger midlevel flow across southern CA, but also greater displacement between substantial cooling aloft and the more favorable low-level moisture. In general, confidence in sufficient strengthening of flow within this weak buoyancy regime remains too low to include severe probabilities. Uncertainty regarding the evolution of the shortwave extends downstream into parts of the Desert Southwest, but an area of modestly enhanced low-level moisture across southwest AZ could support isolated storm development later in the day into the evening, as some cooling aloft overspreads the region. ..Dean.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on New Year's Day across parts of southern California and Arizona. ...Southern CA to AZ... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of southern CA Thursday morning, before dampening as it shifts eastward across parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region later in the period. Cooling aloft atop modestly increasing low-level moisture will support some early-day thunderstorm potential across coastal southern CA. Guidance continues to vary regarding the strength, trajectory, and magnitude of attendant flow fields of this system as it approaches the coast. The somewhat stronger and farther south solutions (such as the 12Z NAM/RRFS) depict potential for strong storm development offshore, which could affect near-coastal areas of southern CA during the morning before weakening. Other guidance (such as the 12Z ECMWF) has trended northward, bringing stronger midlevel flow across southern CA, but also greater displacement between substantial cooling aloft and the more favorable low-level moisture. In general, confidence in sufficient strengthening of flow within this weak buoyancy regime remains too low to include severe probabilities. Uncertainty regarding the evolution of the shortwave extends downstream into parts of the Desert Southwest, but an area of modestly enhanced low-level moisture across southwest AZ could support isolated storm development later in the day into the evening, as some cooling aloft overspreads the region. ..Dean.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes are needed with the 20z Day 1 Update. Thunderstorm activity is not expected through tonight/early Wednesday. ..Leitman.. 12/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With cool/stable conditions prevalent behind a cold front across a large portion of the CONUS, thunderstorms are not forecast today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes are needed with the 20z Day 1 Update. Thunderstorm activity is not expected through tonight/early Wednesday. ..Leitman.. 12/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With cool/stable conditions prevalent behind a cold front across a large portion of the CONUS, thunderstorms are not forecast today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes are needed with the 20z Day 1 Update. Thunderstorm activity is not expected through tonight/early Wednesday. ..Leitman.. 12/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With cool/stable conditions prevalent behind a cold front across a large portion of the CONUS, thunderstorms are not forecast today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes are needed with the 20z Day 1 Update. Thunderstorm activity is not expected through tonight/early Wednesday. ..Leitman.. 12/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With cool/stable conditions prevalent behind a cold front across a large portion of the CONUS, thunderstorms are not forecast today. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New Year's Day along coastal southern California. ...Coastal southern CA... An initially slow-moving upper low is forecast to eject northeastward as a shortwave trough and approach coastal southern CA by the end of the period. The primary midlevel cold core is forecast to still be offshore at the end of the period (12Z Thursday). However, some moistening beneath modest cooling aloft could support isolated thunderstorm potential late in the period across the Channel Islands and eventually coastal areas of southern CA. Some enlargement of low-level hodographs is expected as this system approaches, but with scant buoyancy and only modest effective shear, organized severe potential appears low. ..Dean.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New Year's Day along coastal southern California. ...Coastal southern CA... An initially slow-moving upper low is forecast to eject northeastward as a shortwave trough and approach coastal southern CA by the end of the period. The primary midlevel cold core is forecast to still be offshore at the end of the period (12Z Thursday). However, some moistening beneath modest cooling aloft could support isolated thunderstorm potential late in the period across the Channel Islands and eventually coastal areas of southern CA. Some enlargement of low-level hodographs is expected as this system approaches, but with scant buoyancy and only modest effective shear, organized severe potential appears low. ..Dean.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New Year's Day along coastal southern California. ...Coastal southern CA... An initially slow-moving upper low is forecast to eject northeastward as a shortwave trough and approach coastal southern CA by the end of the period. The primary midlevel cold core is forecast to still be offshore at the end of the period (12Z Thursday). However, some moistening beneath modest cooling aloft could support isolated thunderstorm potential late in the period across the Channel Islands and eventually coastal areas of southern CA. Some enlargement of low-level hodographs is expected as this system approaches, but with scant buoyancy and only modest effective shear, organized severe potential appears low. ..Dean.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New Year's Day along coastal southern California. ...Coastal southern CA... An initially slow-moving upper low is forecast to eject northeastward as a shortwave trough and approach coastal southern CA by the end of the period. The primary midlevel cold core is forecast to still be offshore at the end of the period (12Z Thursday). However, some moistening beneath modest cooling aloft could support isolated thunderstorm potential late in the period across the Channel Islands and eventually coastal areas of southern CA. Some enlargement of low-level hodographs is expected as this system approaches, but with scant buoyancy and only modest effective shear, organized severe potential appears low. ..Dean.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...Western Oklahoma and Northwest Texas... Lee surface trough development across the central High Plains will initiate a swath of modest southwest flow of up to 15 mph across eastern TX to the lower MO River Valley. Temperatures will quickly rise into the 50s to near 60 across western OK/northwestern TX under clear skies. Although winds be marginal in terms of speed, current surface dewpoints in the low teens to below 10F in some areas in western OK (supporting 15-25% afternoon RH), longer term rainfall deficits amid expanding drought, along with dry fuels and above normal fuel loading across this region will enhance fire danger this afternoon. Only minor changes to the current Elevated highlights were needed. ...Southeast and Florida... An elevated fire weather threat remains across the Southeast and FL amid a dry, post frontal regime. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph aligned with minimum relative humidity in the 25-35% range should allow for several hours of elevated fire weather conditions primarily across GA and FL through the afternoon. Warmer temperatures in the 60s across southern FL could support relative humidity closer to 20% this afternoon with dry, parallel peninsular flow in place. Thus, elevated highlights were maintained across the Southeast and FL today. ..Williams.. 12/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will prevail along the East Coast, with broad northwesterly flow aloft expected to overspread much of the central U.S. today. Embedded mid-level impulses pivoting around the upper trough will encourage multiple southeastward surges of surface high pressure east of the Mississippi River, with lee troughing expected across the High Plains. Modest downslope flow along the central and southern High Plains will promote low-end Elevated conditions across western Oklahoma into northwestern Texas, where localized wildfire spread will be possible given dry fuels. Offshore flow due to the aforementioned surface high pressure surges will continue to support dry, occasionally breezy conditions across portions of the Southeast into the FL Peninsula, where low-end Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...Western Oklahoma and Northwest Texas... Lee surface trough development across the central High Plains will initiate a swath of modest southwest flow of up to 15 mph across eastern TX to the lower MO River Valley. Temperatures will quickly rise into the 50s to near 60 across western OK/northwestern TX under clear skies. Although winds be marginal in terms of speed, current surface dewpoints in the low teens to below 10F in some areas in western OK (supporting 15-25% afternoon RH), longer term rainfall deficits amid expanding drought, along with dry fuels and above normal fuel loading across this region will enhance fire danger this afternoon. Only minor changes to the current Elevated highlights were needed. ...Southeast and Florida... An elevated fire weather threat remains across the Southeast and FL amid a dry, post frontal regime. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph aligned with minimum relative humidity in the 25-35% range should allow for several hours of elevated fire weather conditions primarily across GA and FL through the afternoon. Warmer temperatures in the 60s across southern FL could support relative humidity closer to 20% this afternoon with dry, parallel peninsular flow in place. Thus, elevated highlights were maintained across the Southeast and FL today. ..Williams.. 12/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will prevail along the East Coast, with broad northwesterly flow aloft expected to overspread much of the central U.S. today. Embedded mid-level impulses pivoting around the upper trough will encourage multiple southeastward surges of surface high pressure east of the Mississippi River, with lee troughing expected across the High Plains. Modest downslope flow along the central and southern High Plains will promote low-end Elevated conditions across western Oklahoma into northwestern Texas, where localized wildfire spread will be possible given dry fuels. Offshore flow due to the aforementioned surface high pressure surges will continue to support dry, occasionally breezy conditions across portions of the Southeast into the FL Peninsula, where low-end Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...Western Oklahoma and Northwest Texas... Lee surface trough development across the central High Plains will initiate a swath of modest southwest flow of up to 15 mph across eastern TX to the lower MO River Valley. Temperatures will quickly rise into the 50s to near 60 across western OK/northwestern TX under clear skies. Although winds be marginal in terms of speed, current surface dewpoints in the low teens to below 10F in some areas in western OK (supporting 15-25% afternoon RH), longer term rainfall deficits amid expanding drought, along with dry fuels and above normal fuel loading across this region will enhance fire danger this afternoon. Only minor changes to the current Elevated highlights were needed. ...Southeast and Florida... An elevated fire weather threat remains across the Southeast and FL amid a dry, post frontal regime. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph aligned with minimum relative humidity in the 25-35% range should allow for several hours of elevated fire weather conditions primarily across GA and FL through the afternoon. Warmer temperatures in the 60s across southern FL could support relative humidity closer to 20% this afternoon with dry, parallel peninsular flow in place. Thus, elevated highlights were maintained across the Southeast and FL today. ..Williams.. 12/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will prevail along the East Coast, with broad northwesterly flow aloft expected to overspread much of the central U.S. today. Embedded mid-level impulses pivoting around the upper trough will encourage multiple southeastward surges of surface high pressure east of the Mississippi River, with lee troughing expected across the High Plains. Modest downslope flow along the central and southern High Plains will promote low-end Elevated conditions across western Oklahoma into northwestern Texas, where localized wildfire spread will be possible given dry fuels. Offshore flow due to the aforementioned surface high pressure surges will continue to support dry, occasionally breezy conditions across portions of the Southeast into the FL Peninsula, where low-end Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more