SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
With cool/stable conditions prevalent behind a cold front across a
large portion of the CONUS, thunderstorms are not forecast today.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/30/2025
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
With cool/stable conditions prevalent behind a cold front across a
large portion of the CONUS, thunderstorms are not forecast today.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/30/2025
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 301300Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
The absence of appreciable instability across the CONUS will
preclude thunderstorm development through tonight.
..Bunting/Weinman.. 12/30/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A return of deep convection remains likely on D4-5/Friday-Saturday
across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into the Deep
South. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should emanate out of the
Southwest and may briefly amplify on D4/Friday over TX, as it
becomes absorbed within the broader cyclonic flow regime across
eastern North America. Latest guidance has decidedly trended towards
dampening this impulse and attendant surface cyclone reflection as
they progress across the Gulf Coast States/northern Gulf Friday
night into Saturday. This combined with predominately westerly
low-level wind profiles may support only a marginal severe threat.
After this minor wave, severe potential appears negligible in the
D6-8 time frame.
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on New Year's Day across parts
of southern California and Arizona.
...Southern CA to AZ...
While guidance has general agreement of a compact/lower-amplitude
shortwave impulse off the southern CA coast, models differ on its
spatial placement and potential dampening inland on Thursday amid a
broad ridge anchored across the West downstream of a longwave trough
in the northeast Pacific. This renders uncertainty over the degree
of mesoscale low-level flow enhancement along coastal southern CA
between 12-18Z, which will be crucial to any severe potential with
low-topped convection amid a meager buoyancy profile. In addition,
with latitudinal inconsistency in placement of the compact mid-level
cold core, confidence is low in the degree of thunderstorm
potential. The 00Z ECMWF appears to support potential for
low-probability severe on Thursday morning. Most other models, along
with the latest GEFS and yesterday's ECENS ML guidance, indicate
negligible severe potential.
Farther inland, buoyancy should remain scant east of the Peninsular
Ranges. But it may be adequate for sporadic lightning flashes that
yield very isolated thunderstorms across southwest AZ through
Thursday evening.
..Grams.. 12/30/2025
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
A pronounced embedded impulse, and accompanying 500 mb jet streak,
will pivot southeast along the backside of the near-stationary East
Coast upper trough, supporting continued dry offshore flow across
the Southeast tomorrow (Wednesday). By afternoon peak heating, RH
may dip below 30 percent over several areas, from the Carolinas to
Florida. Surface wind fields will not be overly intense, with
sustained northwesterly surface winds expected to be around 10 mph
(perhaps 15 mph locally) across the Southeast. However, low-end
Elevated highlights have been introduced given the dry low-level
conditions amid curing fuels, which should support at least
localized wildfire spread.
..Squitieri.. 12/30/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will prevail along the East Coast, with
broad northwesterly flow aloft expected to overspread much of the
central U.S. today. Embedded mid-level impulses pivoting around the
upper trough will encourage multiple southeastward surges of surface
high pressure east of the Mississippi River, with lee troughing
expected across the High Plains. Modest downslope flow along the
central and southern High Plains will promote low-end Elevated
conditions across western Oklahoma into northwestern Texas, where
localized wildfire spread will be possible given dry fuels. Offshore
flow due to the aforementioned surface high pressure surges will
continue to support dry, occasionally breezy conditions across
portions of the Southeast into the FL Peninsula, where low-end
Elevated highlights remain in place.
..Squitieri.. 12/30/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New
Year's Day along coastal southern California.
...Coastal southern CA...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will approach but remain offshore
of coastal southern CA through 12Z Thursday. The compact mid-level
cold core might reach the Channel Islands, with generally slight
cooling farther east. This may be sufficient for charge separation
near the end of the period, as low-topped convection is expected to
increase overnight ahead of the trough. Despite modest low-level
hodograph curvature, weak effective bulk shear amid a meager
buoyancy profile suggests convection should remain too
shallow/disorganized for an appreciable severe threat.
..Grams.. 12/30/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/30/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/30/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
..Darrow.. 12/30/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
..Darrow.. 12/30/2025
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MD 2287 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 2287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Areas affected...Northeast Ohio...northwest Pennsylvania...western
New York
Concerning...Snow Squall
Valid 292014Z - 300015Z
SUMMARY...Snow squall conditions are possible as a secondary cold
front moves off of Lake Erie. Moderate to briefly heavy snowfall and
strong wind gusts will lead to reduced visibility with this
activity.
DISCUSSION...A secondary cold front is moving through the Great
Lakes region as a potent upper low continues through southern
Ontario/Quebec. A coherent band structure has develop as the front
has approached Lake Erie. This band is expected to move onshore and
progress into Ohio/Pennsylvania/New York. Moderate to briefly heavy
snowfall may occur with this activity. Strong cold advection has led
to steep enough lapse rates in the boundary layer which could could
contribute to enhanced wind gust potential above what has already
been ongoing synoptically this afternoon.
..Wendt.. 12/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41298236 41718165 42188006 42687873 42967772 42917753
42647716 41967761 41427913 41068061 40868134 40878175
41068217 41298236
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
Upper-level ridging will be over the West with upper-level troughing
over the East for much of this week before more quasi zonal flow is
likely to develop across the CONUS. A weaker closed low is likely to
move into southern California mid to late this week then weaken as
it traverses through the base of the upper-level ridging across the
Southwest. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Southeast
through Day 4/Thursday before moisture returns from the Gulf and
increases chances of rain across the region Day 5/Friday - Day
6/Saturday. Weak downslope flow is likely on portions of the central
High Plains mid to late this week before a cold front slides south
down the Plains late Day 4/Thursday into Day 6/Saturday.
...Southeast...
Elevated conditions remain likely in portions of the Southeast Day
3/Wednesday, but the 40% area was reduced from yesterday's outlook.
Breezy westerly winds will overlap a dry post-frontal airmass from
southern Georgia/vicinity through the Carolinas, and RH will be
below elevated criteria across much of the Southeast/Gulf Coast Day
3/Wednesday. However, weaker flow will limit areas reaching
elevated/locally critical criteria across the broader Southeast
region. Locally elevated conditions are possible again Day
4/Thursday from eastern Alabama into South Carolina and north
Florida. While rain is likely across much of the Southeast Day
5/Friday - Day 6/Saturday, most areas will not see heavy rainfall,
including some areas seeing little to none (e.g., south Florida).
...Southern/Central Plains...
Dry/breezy conditions are possible Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday
on portions of the southern/central High Plains in a modest
downslope flow regime. Additionally, drier and potentially breezy
return flow may reach locally elevated thresholds in portions of
Texas during these days before a cold front pushes south down the
Plains. No precipitation is expected into the weekend for the
southern/central Plains, the rest of Texas, and into the western
Lower Mississippi Valley. These dry conditions will further cure
fuels regardless if they meet elevated/critical criteria.
..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
Upper-level ridging will be over the West with upper-level troughing
over the East for much of this week before more quasi zonal flow is
likely to develop across the CONUS. A weaker closed low is likely to
move into southern California mid to late this week then weaken as
it traverses through the base of the upper-level ridging across the
Southwest. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Southeast
through Day 4/Thursday before moisture returns from the Gulf and
increases chances of rain across the region Day 5/Friday - Day
6/Saturday. Weak downslope flow is likely on portions of the central
High Plains mid to late this week before a cold front slides south
down the Plains late Day 4/Thursday into Day 6/Saturday.
...Southeast...
Elevated conditions remain likely in portions of the Southeast Day
3/Wednesday, but the 40% area was reduced from yesterday's outlook.
Breezy westerly winds will overlap a dry post-frontal airmass from
southern Georgia/vicinity through the Carolinas, and RH will be
below elevated criteria across much of the Southeast/Gulf Coast Day
3/Wednesday. However, weaker flow will limit areas reaching
elevated/locally critical criteria across the broader Southeast
region. Locally elevated conditions are possible again Day
4/Thursday from eastern Alabama into South Carolina and north
Florida. While rain is likely across much of the Southeast Day
5/Friday - Day 6/Saturday, most areas will not see heavy rainfall,
including some areas seeing little to none (e.g., south Florida).
...Southern/Central Plains...
Dry/breezy conditions are possible Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday
on portions of the southern/central High Plains in a modest
downslope flow regime. Additionally, drier and potentially breezy
return flow may reach locally elevated thresholds in portions of
Texas during these days before a cold front pushes south down the
Plains. No precipitation is expected into the weekend for the
southern/central Plains, the rest of Texas, and into the western
Lower Mississippi Valley. These dry conditions will further cure
fuels regardless if they meet elevated/critical criteria.
..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast in the U.S. through tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
No changes are made to the outlook for this issuance.
..Broyles.. 12/29/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An amplified upper trough/low with an intense mid-level jet will
continue advancing east-northeastward over Ontario/Quebec and the
eastern CONUS today. A related strong surface cold front will also
move east-southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf through the
period. With negligible instability forecast over land ahead of the
front, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10%.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast in the U.S. through tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
No changes are made to the outlook for this issuance.
..Broyles.. 12/29/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An amplified upper trough/low with an intense mid-level jet will
continue advancing east-northeastward over Ontario/Quebec and the
eastern CONUS today. A related strong surface cold front will also
move east-southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf through the
period. With negligible instability forecast over land ahead of the
front, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10%.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area in the Southeast
based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. With both
Elevated areas, there is some concern that it may be more locally
elevated winds/RH, but both areas were maintained given the
potential for elevated fire weather conditions.
..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/
...Synopsis...
A broad northwesterly mid-level flow regime will prevail across the
eastern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), with multiple embedded
impulses poised to traverse this flow and encourage the continued
southward shunting of surface high pressure. Offshore flow within a
post-cold-frontal regime will encourage 10-15 mph sustained
northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH along portions of
the Carolinas, southward to the Florida Peninsula, where Elevated
highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface
flow pivoting around a surface high will support 15 mph sustained
winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH atop dry fuels over parts of
the southern Plains, warranting Elevated highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area in the Southeast
based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. With both
Elevated areas, there is some concern that it may be more locally
elevated winds/RH, but both areas were maintained given the
potential for elevated fire weather conditions.
..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/
...Synopsis...
A broad northwesterly mid-level flow regime will prevail across the
eastern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), with multiple embedded
impulses poised to traverse this flow and encourage the continued
southward shunting of surface high pressure. Offshore flow within a
post-cold-frontal regime will encourage 10-15 mph sustained
northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH along portions of
the Carolinas, southward to the Florida Peninsula, where Elevated
highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface
flow pivoting around a surface high will support 15 mph sustained
winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH atop dry fuels over parts of
the southern Plains, warranting Elevated highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
