SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late New Year's Eve into early
New Year's Day along coastal southern California.
...Southern CA...
An initially retrograding upper low off of the southern CA coast is
forecast to stall and then eject northeastward as a shortwave trough
through the period, approaching the coast by early Thursday morning.
A modest increase in moisture beneath cooling temperatures aloft
could support weak thunderstorm development, mainly late in the
period from the Channel Islands to the immediate southern CA coast.
With only very meager forecast buoyancy, convection is expected to
remain too shallow and disorganized for an appreciable severe
threat, despite some increase in deep-layer flow/shear with time.
..Dean.. 12/29/2025
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late New Year's Eve into early
New Year's Day along coastal southern California.
...Southern CA...
An initially retrograding upper low off of the southern CA coast is
forecast to stall and then eject northeastward as a shortwave trough
through the period, approaching the coast by early Thursday morning.
A modest increase in moisture beneath cooling temperatures aloft
could support weak thunderstorm development, mainly late in the
period from the Channel Islands to the immediate southern CA coast.
With only very meager forecast buoyancy, convection is expected to
remain too shallow and disorganized for an appreciable severe
threat, despite some increase in deep-layer flow/shear with time.
..Dean.. 12/29/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Discussion...
In the wake of multiple cold-frontal passages, dry and stable
conditions are expected to preclude thunderstorm development across
the CONUS through the period.
..Dean.. 12/29/2025
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An amplified upper trough/low with an intense mid-level jet will
continue advancing east-northeastward over Ontario/Quebec and the
eastern CONUS today. A related strong surface cold front will also
move east-southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf through the
period. With negligible instability forecast over land ahead of the
front, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10%.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/29/2025
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An amplified upper trough/low with an intense mid-level jet will
continue advancing east-northeastward over Ontario/Quebec and the
eastern CONUS today. A related strong surface cold front will also
move east-southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf through the
period. With negligible instability forecast over land ahead of the
front, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10%.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/29/2025
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
Minor modifications were made based on the latest observations and
high-resolution forecast guidance. Light showers along the cold
front are moving towards the coast from the Piedmont, but dry and
windy conditions are filtering in behind the front. Combining and
expanding the Elevated areas was considered, but recent and expected
precipitation today precluded this change. However, locally elevated
conditions are possible from south/east Texas through south Alabama
in a dry, breezy post-frontal airmass.
..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will continue to deepen while ejecting
into the Atlantic, supporting a deep northwesterly flow regime
across the central U.S. as a surface cold front surges offshore
today. The post cold-frontal regime across portions of the Southeast
into the Carolinas will promote 15 mph sustained west-northwesterly
surface winds amid 25-25 percent RH (perhaps locally lower in some
spots). Elevated highlights are warranted given dry fuels that have
not experienced rainfall in 1-2 weeks.
Similarly, dry north-northwesterly surface flow will prevail over
the Plains given the aforementioned deep-layer northwesterly flow
regime. Wind speeds will be weaker compared to previous days, with
cooler temperatures also expected. Nonetheless, widespread 15+ mph
sustained north-northwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH
and drying fuels necessitates Elevated highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
Minor modifications were made based on the latest observations and
high-resolution forecast guidance. Light showers along the cold
front are moving towards the coast from the Piedmont, but dry and
windy conditions are filtering in behind the front. Combining and
expanding the Elevated areas was considered, but recent and expected
precipitation today precluded this change. However, locally elevated
conditions are possible from south/east Texas through south Alabama
in a dry, breezy post-frontal airmass.
..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will continue to deepen while ejecting
into the Atlantic, supporting a deep northwesterly flow regime
across the central U.S. as a surface cold front surges offshore
today. The post cold-frontal regime across portions of the Southeast
into the Carolinas will promote 15 mph sustained west-northwesterly
surface winds amid 25-25 percent RH (perhaps locally lower in some
spots). Elevated highlights are warranted given dry fuels that have
not experienced rainfall in 1-2 weeks.
Similarly, dry north-northwesterly surface flow will prevail over
the Plains given the aforementioned deep-layer northwesterly flow
regime. Wind speeds will be weaker compared to previous days, with
cooler temperatures also expected. Nonetheless, widespread 15+ mph
sustained north-northwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH
and drying fuels necessitates Elevated highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 2286 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 2286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Areas affected...Parts of Upper Michigan and far northern Lower
Michigan
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 290932Z - 291530Z
SUMMARY...Banded heavy snow with rates of 1-2 inches per hour and
periods of blizzard conditions are expected through the morning
hours.
DISCUSSION...To the west/northwest of a very deep low pressure
system (983 mb surface low over Lake Huron), substantial deep-layer
lift is overspreading a cold, deeply saturated profile over Upper MI
and vicinity. The combination of this lift through a deep/saturated
DGZ and isothermal layer below will promote efficient crystal growth
and aggregation. As as result, widespread and prolonged heavy
snowfall rates of 1-1.5 inches per hour are expected, with even
higher rates to around 2 inches per hour over the higher terrain and
beneath the core of more organized banding. In addition to these
substantial and prolonged rates, a very tight pressure gradient
peripheral to the deep surface low and strong low-level jet
(50-60-kt flow in the lowest 1 km AGL per MQT VWP) will promote
40-50 mph gusts and intermittent blizzard conditions in conjunction
with the heavy snowfall rates.
..Weinman.. 12/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...
LAT...LON 45458526 45558610 45788701 46168815 46508849 46718842
46828799 46578760 46408716 46428653 46618622 46738507
46538424 46158371 45818366 45538398 45398451 45458526
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a trough over the Great Lakes
and much of the eastern U.S. whereas a split-flow pattern prevails
over the West. A cold front will continue south through much of the
Gulf of America and move east of the Eastern Seaboard during the
period. High pressure centered over the south-central states will
lead to cool/stable conditions over much of the Lower 48.
..Smith/Weinman.. 12/29/2025
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a trough over the Great Lakes
and much of the eastern U.S. whereas a split-flow pattern prevails
over the West. A cold front will continue south through much of the
Gulf of America and move east of the Eastern Seaboard during the
period. High pressure centered over the south-central states will
lead to cool/stable conditions over much of the Lower 48.
..Smith/Weinman.. 12/29/2025
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a trough over the Great Lakes
and much of the eastern U.S. whereas a split-flow pattern prevails
over the West. A cold front will continue south through much of the
Gulf of America and move east of the Eastern Seaboard during the
period. High pressure centered over the south-central states will
lead to cool/stable conditions over much of the Lower 48.
..Smith/Weinman.. 12/29/2025
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will
approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears
increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states
through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern
High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture
return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass
intrusion today.
Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday
to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and
into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread
across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of
amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of
signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly
lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant
concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will
approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears
increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states
through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern
High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture
return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass
intrusion today.
Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday
to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and
into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread
across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of
amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of
signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly
lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant
concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will
approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears
increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states
through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern
High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture
return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass
intrusion today.
Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday
to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and
into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread
across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of
amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of
signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly
lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant
concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will
approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears
increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states
through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern
High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture
return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass
intrusion today.
Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday
to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and
into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread
across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of
amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of
signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly
lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant
concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad northwesterly mid-level flow regime will prevail across the
eastern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), with multiple embedded
impulses poised to traverse this flow and encourage the continued
southward shunting of surface high pressure. Offshore flow within a
post-cold-frontal regime will encourage 10-15 mph sustained
northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH along portions of
the Carolinas, southward to the Florida Peninsula, where Elevated
highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface
flow pivoting around a surface high will support 15 mph sustained
winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH atop dry fuels over parts of
the southern Plains, warranting Elevated highlights.
..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad northwesterly mid-level flow regime will prevail across the
eastern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), with multiple embedded
impulses poised to traverse this flow and encourage the continued
southward shunting of surface high pressure. Offshore flow within a
post-cold-frontal regime will encourage 10-15 mph sustained
northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH along portions of
the Carolinas, southward to the Florida Peninsula, where Elevated
highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface
flow pivoting around a surface high will support 15 mph sustained
winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH atop dry fuels over parts of
the southern Plains, warranting Elevated highlights.
..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad northwesterly mid-level flow regime will prevail across the
eastern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), with multiple embedded
impulses poised to traverse this flow and encourage the continued
southward shunting of surface high pressure. Offshore flow within a
post-cold-frontal regime will encourage 10-15 mph sustained
northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH along portions of
the Carolinas, southward to the Florida Peninsula, where Elevated
highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface
flow pivoting around a surface high will support 15 mph sustained
winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH atop dry fuels over parts of
the southern Plains, warranting Elevated highlights.
..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad northwesterly mid-level flow regime will prevail across the
eastern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), with multiple embedded
impulses poised to traverse this flow and encourage the continued
southward shunting of surface high pressure. Offshore flow within a
post-cold-frontal regime will encourage 10-15 mph sustained
northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH along portions of
the Carolinas, southward to the Florida Peninsula, where Elevated
highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface
flow pivoting around a surface high will support 15 mph sustained
winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH atop dry fuels over parts of
the southern Plains, warranting Elevated highlights.
..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
