Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will continue to deepen while ejecting into the Atlantic, supporting a deep northwesterly flow regime across the central U.S. as a surface cold front surges offshore today. The post cold-frontal regime across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas will promote 15 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds amid 25-25 percent RH (perhaps locally lower in some spots). Elevated highlights are warranted given dry fuels that have not experienced rainfall in 1-2 weeks. Similarly, dry north-northwesterly surface flow will prevail over the Plains given the aforementioned deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Wind speeds will be weaker compared to previous days, with cooler temperatures also expected. Nonetheless, widespread 15+ mph sustained north-northwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH and drying fuels necessitates Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will continue to deepen while ejecting into the Atlantic, supporting a deep northwesterly flow regime across the central U.S. as a surface cold front surges offshore today. The post cold-frontal regime across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas will promote 15 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds amid 25-25 percent RH (perhaps locally lower in some spots). Elevated highlights are warranted given dry fuels that have not experienced rainfall in 1-2 weeks. Similarly, dry north-northwesterly surface flow will prevail over the Plains given the aforementioned deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Wind speeds will be weaker compared to previous days, with cooler temperatures also expected. Nonetheless, widespread 15+ mph sustained north-northwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH and drying fuels necessitates Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will continue to deepen while ejecting into the Atlantic, supporting a deep northwesterly flow regime across the central U.S. as a surface cold front surges offshore today. The post cold-frontal regime across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas will promote 15 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds amid 25-25 percent RH (perhaps locally lower in some spots). Elevated highlights are warranted given dry fuels that have not experienced rainfall in 1-2 weeks. Similarly, dry north-northwesterly surface flow will prevail over the Plains given the aforementioned deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Wind speeds will be weaker compared to previous days, with cooler temperatures also expected. Nonetheless, widespread 15+ mph sustained north-northwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH and drying fuels necessitates Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning along coastal southern California. ...Southern CA... A retrograding cutoff low currently near the central/southern CA coast is consistently progged to eject back northeastward as a shortwave trough towards the southern CA coast on Wednesday night. Ahead of this trough, sufficient 850-700 mb moisture within the modest warm conveyor combined with weak mid-level cooling may yield scant elevated buoyancy by the 06-12Z period. This could support a threat of isolated thunderstorms, mainly early morning Thursday. ..Grams.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning along coastal southern California. ...Southern CA... A retrograding cutoff low currently near the central/southern CA coast is consistently progged to eject back northeastward as a shortwave trough towards the southern CA coast on Wednesday night. Ahead of this trough, sufficient 850-700 mb moisture within the modest warm conveyor combined with weak mid-level cooling may yield scant elevated buoyancy by the 06-12Z period. This could support a threat of isolated thunderstorms, mainly early morning Thursday. ..Grams.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning along coastal southern California. ...Southern CA... A retrograding cutoff low currently near the central/southern CA coast is consistently progged to eject back northeastward as a shortwave trough towards the southern CA coast on Wednesday night. Ahead of this trough, sufficient 850-700 mb moisture within the modest warm conveyor combined with weak mid-level cooling may yield scant elevated buoyancy by the 06-12Z period. This could support a threat of isolated thunderstorms, mainly early morning Thursday. ..Grams.. 12/29/2025 Read more

MD 2285 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 2285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0840 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern New York and northern Massachusetts into central and northern Vermont and New Hampshire Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 290240Z - 290745Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected across portions of New England through tonight, with at least .06 inch/3 hour accretion rates possible. The best chance for the highest accretion rates, particularly over the next 3-6 hours, would be over northern New England. DISCUSSION...Warm-air/moisture advection, within the 925-700 mb layer, is increasing over the northern Appalachians in response to an approaching, deepening surface cyclone and accompanying 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak. A broad shield of rainfall is overspreading a surface layer that has been and remains well below freezing in several locales. While warm-air advection aloft is strong, the displacement of the sub-freezing surface temperatures may not take place until after 3 AM EST. Heavier WAA-induced rainfall atop a persistent sub-freezing surface is quite favorable for appreciable ice accumulations over the next 6 hours. An ice storm is possible, with over .06/3 hour accumulation rates potentially becoming commonplace. The best chance for significant ice accumulations would be over parts of northern New England, closer to the international border. Here, At least moderate rain rates should fall into a sub-freezing surface layer the longest, with 32+ F surface temperatures approaching from the south, reaching this region much later tonight. ..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43187107 42647172 42517236 42437317 42477421 42687531 42897580 44127560 44687545 45027472 45107260 44957172 44287122 43187107 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across the lower Rio Grande Valley very early in the period. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley... Surface front is surging south across south central TX late this evening as pressures build over the central/southern Plains. Latest model guidance suggests the wind shift will reach the international border around 12z, then quickly advance deep into northeast Mexico. A narrow band of shallow convection is currently noted along the front as far west as Wilson county TX. Forecast soundings for deep South TX at the start of the period suggest both pre frontal and post frontal parcels will exhibit sufficient buoyancy for the strongest updrafts to possibly penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Any post frontal lightning threat should be over by 15z. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across the lower Rio Grande Valley very early in the period. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley... Surface front is surging south across south central TX late this evening as pressures build over the central/southern Plains. Latest model guidance suggests the wind shift will reach the international border around 12z, then quickly advance deep into northeast Mexico. A narrow band of shallow convection is currently noted along the front as far west as Wilson county TX. Forecast soundings for deep South TX at the start of the period suggest both pre frontal and post frontal parcels will exhibit sufficient buoyancy for the strongest updrafts to possibly penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Any post frontal lightning threat should be over by 15z. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across the lower Rio Grande Valley very early in the period. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley... Surface front is surging south across south central TX late this evening as pressures build over the central/southern Plains. Latest model guidance suggests the wind shift will reach the international border around 12z, then quickly advance deep into northeast Mexico. A narrow band of shallow convection is currently noted along the front as far west as Wilson county TX. Forecast soundings for deep South TX at the start of the period suggest both pre frontal and post frontal parcels will exhibit sufficient buoyancy for the strongest updrafts to possibly penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Any post frontal lightning threat should be over by 15z. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across the lower Rio Grande Valley very early in the period. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley... Surface front is surging south across south central TX late this evening as pressures build over the central/southern Plains. Latest model guidance suggests the wind shift will reach the international border around 12z, then quickly advance deep into northeast Mexico. A narrow band of shallow convection is currently noted along the front as far west as Wilson county TX. Forecast soundings for deep South TX at the start of the period suggest both pre frontal and post frontal parcels will exhibit sufficient buoyancy for the strongest updrafts to possibly penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Any post frontal lightning threat should be over by 15z. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/29/2025 Read more

MD 2283 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Areas affected...Central Minnesota into northern Iowa Concerning...Blizzard Valid 282353Z - 290500Z SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions are expected to gradually increase through the evening across portions of the Upper Midwest. 30-40 mph sustained westerly winds will coincide with increasing snowfall rates, resulting in reduced visibility, perhaps below a quarter mile, in some instances. DISCUSSION...Mesoanalysis indicates that the surface low, currently at 993 mb and located over southern Lake Michigan, is continuing to deepen while gradually drifting to the northeast. In response to surface low intensification is a broadening and gradual strengthening of the west-northwesterly surface wind field within the low's northwestern quadrant. Surface observations show widespread 30+ mph sustained wind speeds across much of western MN into central IA. Meanwhile deep-layer cold air advection, and the advection of mid-level moisture around the surface low, is resulting in a broad band of snow pivoting around the low's northwestern quadrant. As a result, moderate to perhaps occasionally heavy snowfall rates will coincide with the 30+ mph west-northwesterly surface wind field, which may strengthen further in tandem with the low. Increasingly common blizzard conditions may manifest, with reduced visibility down to or below a quarter mile where the heavier snow bands and wind gusts may overlap. ..Squitieri.. 12/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 45619391 45769447 45819518 45589575 45089579 44559551 43319451 42079333 41909267 42159195 42609141 43149124 43629149 44089188 44729280 45619391 Read more

MD 2284 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 643... FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 2284 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Areas affected...central Indiana...western Kentucky and Tennessee...extreme southern Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 643... Valid 290058Z - 290400Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 643 continues. SUMMARY...Areas of damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado remain possible from central Indiana southwestward into the lower Ohio Valley. Sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as far south as western Tennessee. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues to move rapidly east coincident with the cold front, with indications of QLCS storm mode at times. Convective trends may be dwindling across the far northern areas, as the line encounters a relatively cooler boundary layer. Farther south toward the OH River and toward western KY and TN, temperatures remain in the 70s F with lower 60s F dewpoints. This is generally resulting in MLCAPE values of a few hundred J/kg. However, little instability is needed to persist the damaging wind threat as the line is strongly forced and with 50 kt around 1 km AGL. Low-level SRH is also strong with 0-1 km values to 400 m2/s2. Given the loss of heating and rapidly moving cold front, the severe storms risk is expected to last a few hours until the line pushes through the narrow instability axis. In the near term, the greatest risk areas continues to be within the tornado watch extending from central IN into western KY, and the watch may be locally extended in time or space as conditions warrant. ..Jewell.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36048994 37408883 38448738 39798622 40208580 40198535 39688521 38788545 37978603 36698737 35938842 35718910 35708968 35888995 36048994 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0643 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 643 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PAH TO 15 W OWB TO 45 NNE OWB TO 35 SE BMG TO 30 ENE MIE. ..JEWELL..12/29/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND...IWX...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 643 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC031-071-079-117-135-139-147-290240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR JACKSON JENNINGS ORANGE RANDOLPH RUSH SPENCER KYC033-059-107-143-149-233-290240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL DAVIESS HOPKINS LYON MCLEAN WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 643 TORNADO IL IN KY MO 282045Z - 290200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 643 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Central Illinois Western and Central Indiana Western Kentucky Far Southeast Missouri * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 900 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will move quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds up to 65-75 mph and a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Lafayette IN to 5 miles southeast of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 26045. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible over parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening. Severe/damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are the primary threats. ...01z Update... Midlevel low is digging southeast across southeast SD early this evening. This feature is forecast to track across IA then eject into northern lower MI by the end of the period as an intense 500mb speed max translates into the OH Valley. In response to this short wave, surface low will deepen as it lifts north across lower MI overnight. The primary concern for deep convection, especially this evening, will be along the cold front as it surges across IN/western KY. Latest radar data exhibits a narrow, strongly forced line of convection from near Fort Wayne, IN southwest across southern IL into extreme northeast AR. This activity has progressed through the primary corridor of instability, but pre frontal air mass across the OH Valley remains adequately buoyant for surface-based convection, at least for the next several hours. Damaging winds should be the primary risk this evening, though a tornado or two can not be ruled out. ..Darrow.. 12/29/2025 Read more