SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible over parts of the
Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening. Severe/damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado are the primary threats.
...01z Update...
Midlevel low is digging southeast across southeast SD early this
evening. This feature is forecast to track across IA then eject into
northern lower MI by the end of the period as an intense 500mb speed
max translates into the OH Valley. In response to this short wave,
surface low will deepen as it lifts north across lower MI overnight.
The primary concern for deep convection, especially this evening,
will be along the cold front as it surges across IN/western KY.
Latest radar data exhibits a narrow, strongly forced line of
convection from near Fort Wayne, IN southwest across southern IL
into extreme northeast AR. This activity has progressed through the
primary corridor of instability, but pre frontal air mass across the
OH Valley remains adequately buoyant for surface-based convection,
at least for the next several hours. Damaging winds should be the
primary risk this evening, though a tornado or two can not be ruled
out.
..Darrow.. 12/29/2025
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible over parts of the
Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening. Severe/damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado are the primary threats.
...01z Update...
Midlevel low is digging southeast across southeast SD early this
evening. This feature is forecast to track across IA then eject into
northern lower MI by the end of the period as an intense 500mb speed
max translates into the OH Valley. In response to this short wave,
surface low will deepen as it lifts north across lower MI overnight.
The primary concern for deep convection, especially this evening,
will be along the cold front as it surges across IN/western KY.
Latest radar data exhibits a narrow, strongly forced line of
convection from near Fort Wayne, IN southwest across southern IL
into extreme northeast AR. This activity has progressed through the
primary corridor of instability, but pre frontal air mass across the
OH Valley remains adequately buoyant for surface-based convection,
at least for the next several hours. Damaging winds should be the
primary risk this evening, though a tornado or two can not be ruled
out.
..Darrow.. 12/29/2025
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible over parts of the
Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening. Severe/damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado are the primary threats.
...01z Update...
Midlevel low is digging southeast across southeast SD early this
evening. This feature is forecast to track across IA then eject into
northern lower MI by the end of the period as an intense 500mb speed
max translates into the OH Valley. In response to this short wave,
surface low will deepen as it lifts north across lower MI overnight.
The primary concern for deep convection, especially this evening,
will be along the cold front as it surges across IN/western KY.
Latest radar data exhibits a narrow, strongly forced line of
convection from near Fort Wayne, IN southwest across southern IL
into extreme northeast AR. This activity has progressed through the
primary corridor of instability, but pre frontal air mass across the
OH Valley remains adequately buoyant for surface-based convection,
at least for the next several hours. Damaging winds should be the
primary risk this evening, though a tornado or two can not be ruled
out.
..Darrow.. 12/29/2025
Read more
MD 2280 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST/NORTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota into northwest/northern
Wisconsin
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 281840Z - 290045Z
SUMMARY...Conditions will initially be marginal for heavier snowfall
rates, but cooling temperatures at the surface and aloft will
increase potential for snowfall rates to around 1 inch per hour.
DISCUSSION...As the mid-level jet intensifies in the central Plains,
a surface low continues to deepen in northern Illinois. Cold air
advection is increasing within the upper Mississippi Valley in
response. Furthermore, deep-layer lift is also increasing as
evidenced by a broad area of precipitation moving into parts of
northwest/northern Wisconsin. While temperatures in some areas have
been just above freezing for most of the morning, recent surface
observations have shown decreasing temperatures/dewpoints. Dynamic
cooling within the heavier precipitation bands has also been
evident. That said, snowfall should increase through the afternoon.
Observations from Eau Claire and Hayward already show moderate
snowfall occurring. As the atmospheric profile continues to cool,
the environment should become more favorable for snowfall rates up
to around 1 inch per hour through late afternoon/early evening.
..Wendt.. 12/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 46479079 46509029 46298948 46128922 45778928 44679108
44269186 44049236 43999277 44059292 44669282 45029257
45429221 46059139 46479079
Read more
WW 0643 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 643
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE FAM TO
20 WSW MVN TO 30 S MTO TO 20 S DNV TO 30 N LAF TO 5 WSW SBN.
..JEWELL..12/28/25
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND...IWX...LMK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 643
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-023-025-033-035-045-047-055-059-065-069-077-079-081-087-
101-121-127-145-151-153-159-165-181-185-191-193-199-290040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER CLARK CLAY
CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR
EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN
HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LAWRENCE MARION MASSAC
PERRY POPE PULASKI
RICHLAND SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
INC005-011-013-015-017-021-023-027-031-035-037-045-049-051-053-
055-057-059-063-065-067-069-071-079-081-083-085-093-095-097-099-
101-103-105-107-109-117-119-121-125-129-131-133-135-139-145-147-
149-153-157-159-163-165-167-169-173-181-183-290040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
MD 2282 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 643... FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Areas affected...Extreme southeast Missouri...southern and eastern
Illinois...and western Indiana
Concerning...Tornado Watch 643...
Valid 282149Z - 282315Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 643 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for occasional damaging gusts and tornadoes
with embedded circulations will continue as storms consolidate and
spread eastward across Illinois toward Indiana.
DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a line of thunderstorms has
consolidated along the cold front moving quickly eastward across
Illinois. A corridor of weak buoyancy precedes the front, where
surface temperatures peaked in the mid 60s to lower 70s, in the
presence of lower 60s dewpoints. Recent observations from KILX
revealed a tornadic debris signature southeast-through-east of
Decatur, IL, with a circulation embedded in the line. Additional
tornadoes will be possible given the long, low-level hodographs and
substantial (200-300 m2/s2) SRH in the storm inflow, within a
sufficiently moist and weakly unstable pre-storm environment.
Additional storm development is expected farther south along the
front toward extreme southeast MO and southern IL over the next 1-2
hours. Though the loss of surface heating will result in a gradual
reduction in buoyancy with eastward extent, strong wind profiles
will help maintain the potential for a few tornadoes and damaging
gusts into late evening.
..Thompson.. 12/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 40498806 41168761 41238685 40968628 39858691 38848759
37878829 37198907 37038965 37149002 37898975 39228889
40498806
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 2280 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST/NORTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota into northwest/northern
Wisconsin
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 281840Z - 290045Z
SUMMARY...Conditions will initially be marginal for heavier snowfall
rates, but cooling temperatures at the surface and aloft will
increase potential for snowfall rates to around 1 inch per hour.
DISCUSSION...As the mid-level jet intensifies in the central Plains,
a surface low continues to deepen in northern Illinois. Cold air
advection is increasing within the upper Mississippi Valley in
response. Furthermore, deep-layer lift is also increasing as
evidenced by a broad area of precipitation moving into parts of
northwest/northern Wisconsin. While temperatures in some areas have
been just above freezing for most of the morning, recent surface
observations have shown decreasing temperatures/dewpoints. Dynamic
cooling within the heavier precipitation bands has also been
evident. That said, snowfall should increase through the afternoon.
Observations from Eau Claire and Hayward already show moderate
snowfall occurring. As the atmospheric profile continues to cool,
the environment should become more favorable for snowfall rates up
to around 1 inch per hour through late afternoon/early evening.
..Wendt.. 12/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 46479079 46509029 46298948 46128922 45778928 44679108
44269186 44049236 43999277 44059292 44669282 45029257
45429221 46059139 46479079
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
The large-scale mid-level pattern for this forecast period will be
characterized by northwest flow across much of the eastern United
States, resulting from a western ridge and eastern trough. Global
guidance continues to suggest a short-wave trough will undercut the
ridge mid-to-late week, although timing of this trough varies from
run-to-run.
... Southern Plains ...
A low-end fire threat may develop on Tuesday (D3) associated with a
modest dry-return flow pattern. Afternoon minimum relative humidity
will fall below critical criteria (15-20%) across the region, with
temperatures beginning to warm in response to the surface ridge
moving east of the area. The limiting factor for a fire environment
supportive of critical fire weather conditions appears to be the
surface winds. As the center of the surface ridge moves slowly east,
winds will turn southwesterly and weaken on Tuesday as compared to
previous days. This forecast maintains the inherited 40% area given
model guidance tendency to under-forecast winds. Further refinements
will be needed in subsequent forecasts.
Later in the week may see an uptick in large-scale fire weather
concerns as westerly surface winds increase in response to the
approaching aforementioned short-wave trough undercutting the
western ridge. There will likely be a period of at least elevated
fire weather concerns associated with this feature before surface
winds across portions of the area back to northerly in response to a
developing surface low across the ArkLaTex region. The timing and
details of this scenario are such that forecast probabilities on any
day are too low to warrant highlights.
... Southeast US ...
A very dry continental polar airmass will be entrenched across the
region in the wake of the strong cold frontal passage on Monday.
Most areas across the region will achieve minimum relative humidity
below critical thresholds (25-30%) for multiple consecutive days. On
Tuesday (D3), winds will remain somewhat gusty before the
surface-pressure gradient further relaxes on Wednesday. A mitigating
factor on Tuesday for fire occurrence will be the cold temperatures,
with high temperatures across the Appalachians struggling to get out
of the 30s.
On Wednesday (D4), the continental polar airmass will moderate
slightly, allowing for warmer afternoon temperatures. However,
northerly winds will hold any moisture return at bay, resulting in
even lower relative humidity than the previous day. The mitigating
factor on Wednesday will be that surface winds should decrease as
compared to Tuesday as the surface pressure gradient continues to
relax.
This forecast will introduce an expansive 40% area on both Tuesday
and Wednesday. Further refinements will be necessary in subsequent
forecasts.
The dry airmass will persist beyond Wednesday for at least some
areas of the Southeast. However, at this time range some uncertainty
exists in the magnitude and timing of potential moisture return
associated with a surface low tied to the aforementioned short-wave
trough.
..Marsh.. 12/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
The large-scale mid-level pattern for this forecast period will be
characterized by northwest flow across much of the eastern United
States, resulting from a western ridge and eastern trough. Global
guidance continues to suggest a short-wave trough will undercut the
ridge mid-to-late week, although timing of this trough varies from
run-to-run.
... Southern Plains ...
A low-end fire threat may develop on Tuesday (D3) associated with a
modest dry-return flow pattern. Afternoon minimum relative humidity
will fall below critical criteria (15-20%) across the region, with
temperatures beginning to warm in response to the surface ridge
moving east of the area. The limiting factor for a fire environment
supportive of critical fire weather conditions appears to be the
surface winds. As the center of the surface ridge moves slowly east,
winds will turn southwesterly and weaken on Tuesday as compared to
previous days. This forecast maintains the inherited 40% area given
model guidance tendency to under-forecast winds. Further refinements
will be needed in subsequent forecasts.
Later in the week may see an uptick in large-scale fire weather
concerns as westerly surface winds increase in response to the
approaching aforementioned short-wave trough undercutting the
western ridge. There will likely be a period of at least elevated
fire weather concerns associated with this feature before surface
winds across portions of the area back to northerly in response to a
developing surface low across the ArkLaTex region. The timing and
details of this scenario are such that forecast probabilities on any
day are too low to warrant highlights.
... Southeast US ...
A very dry continental polar airmass will be entrenched across the
region in the wake of the strong cold frontal passage on Monday.
Most areas across the region will achieve minimum relative humidity
below critical thresholds (25-30%) for multiple consecutive days. On
Tuesday (D3), winds will remain somewhat gusty before the
surface-pressure gradient further relaxes on Wednesday. A mitigating
factor on Tuesday for fire occurrence will be the cold temperatures,
with high temperatures across the Appalachians struggling to get out
of the 30s.
On Wednesday (D4), the continental polar airmass will moderate
slightly, allowing for warmer afternoon temperatures. However,
northerly winds will hold any moisture return at bay, resulting in
even lower relative humidity than the previous day. The mitigating
factor on Wednesday will be that surface winds should decrease as
compared to Tuesday as the surface pressure gradient continues to
relax.
This forecast will introduce an expansive 40% area on both Tuesday
and Wednesday. Further refinements will be necessary in subsequent
forecasts.
The dry airmass will persist beyond Wednesday for at least some
areas of the Southeast. However, at this time range some uncertainty
exists in the magnitude and timing of potential moisture return
associated with a surface low tied to the aforementioned short-wave
trough.
..Marsh.. 12/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
The large-scale mid-level pattern for this forecast period will be
characterized by northwest flow across much of the eastern United
States, resulting from a western ridge and eastern trough. Global
guidance continues to suggest a short-wave trough will undercut the
ridge mid-to-late week, although timing of this trough varies from
run-to-run.
... Southern Plains ...
A low-end fire threat may develop on Tuesday (D3) associated with a
modest dry-return flow pattern. Afternoon minimum relative humidity
will fall below critical criteria (15-20%) across the region, with
temperatures beginning to warm in response to the surface ridge
moving east of the area. The limiting factor for a fire environment
supportive of critical fire weather conditions appears to be the
surface winds. As the center of the surface ridge moves slowly east,
winds will turn southwesterly and weaken on Tuesday as compared to
previous days. This forecast maintains the inherited 40% area given
model guidance tendency to under-forecast winds. Further refinements
will be needed in subsequent forecasts.
Later in the week may see an uptick in large-scale fire weather
concerns as westerly surface winds increase in response to the
approaching aforementioned short-wave trough undercutting the
western ridge. There will likely be a period of at least elevated
fire weather concerns associated with this feature before surface
winds across portions of the area back to northerly in response to a
developing surface low across the ArkLaTex region. The timing and
details of this scenario are such that forecast probabilities on any
day are too low to warrant highlights.
... Southeast US ...
A very dry continental polar airmass will be entrenched across the
region in the wake of the strong cold frontal passage on Monday.
Most areas across the region will achieve minimum relative humidity
below critical thresholds (25-30%) for multiple consecutive days. On
Tuesday (D3), winds will remain somewhat gusty before the
surface-pressure gradient further relaxes on Wednesday. A mitigating
factor on Tuesday for fire occurrence will be the cold temperatures,
with high temperatures across the Appalachians struggling to get out
of the 30s.
On Wednesday (D4), the continental polar airmass will moderate
slightly, allowing for warmer afternoon temperatures. However,
northerly winds will hold any moisture return at bay, resulting in
even lower relative humidity than the previous day. The mitigating
factor on Wednesday will be that surface winds should decrease as
compared to Tuesday as the surface pressure gradient continues to
relax.
This forecast will introduce an expansive 40% area on both Tuesday
and Wednesday. Further refinements will be necessary in subsequent
forecasts.
The dry airmass will persist beyond Wednesday for at least some
areas of the Southeast. However, at this time range some uncertainty
exists in the magnitude and timing of potential moisture return
associated with a surface low tied to the aforementioned short-wave
trough.
..Marsh.. 12/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
The large-scale mid-level pattern for this forecast period will be
characterized by northwest flow across much of the eastern United
States, resulting from a western ridge and eastern trough. Global
guidance continues to suggest a short-wave trough will undercut the
ridge mid-to-late week, although timing of this trough varies from
run-to-run.
... Southern Plains ...
A low-end fire threat may develop on Tuesday (D3) associated with a
modest dry-return flow pattern. Afternoon minimum relative humidity
will fall below critical criteria (15-20%) across the region, with
temperatures beginning to warm in response to the surface ridge
moving east of the area. The limiting factor for a fire environment
supportive of critical fire weather conditions appears to be the
surface winds. As the center of the surface ridge moves slowly east,
winds will turn southwesterly and weaken on Tuesday as compared to
previous days. This forecast maintains the inherited 40% area given
model guidance tendency to under-forecast winds. Further refinements
will be needed in subsequent forecasts.
Later in the week may see an uptick in large-scale fire weather
concerns as westerly surface winds increase in response to the
approaching aforementioned short-wave trough undercutting the
western ridge. There will likely be a period of at least elevated
fire weather concerns associated with this feature before surface
winds across portions of the area back to northerly in response to a
developing surface low across the ArkLaTex region. The timing and
details of this scenario are such that forecast probabilities on any
day are too low to warrant highlights.
... Southeast US ...
A very dry continental polar airmass will be entrenched across the
region in the wake of the strong cold frontal passage on Monday.
Most areas across the region will achieve minimum relative humidity
below critical thresholds (25-30%) for multiple consecutive days. On
Tuesday (D3), winds will remain somewhat gusty before the
surface-pressure gradient further relaxes on Wednesday. A mitigating
factor on Tuesday for fire occurrence will be the cold temperatures,
with high temperatures across the Appalachians struggling to get out
of the 30s.
On Wednesday (D4), the continental polar airmass will moderate
slightly, allowing for warmer afternoon temperatures. However,
northerly winds will hold any moisture return at bay, resulting in
even lower relative humidity than the previous day. The mitigating
factor on Wednesday will be that surface winds should decrease as
compared to Tuesday as the surface pressure gradient continues to
relax.
This forecast will introduce an expansive 40% area on both Tuesday
and Wednesday. Further refinements will be necessary in subsequent
forecasts.
The dry airmass will persist beyond Wednesday for at least some
areas of the Southeast. However, at this time range some uncertainty
exists in the magnitude and timing of potential moisture return
associated with a surface low tied to the aforementioned short-wave
trough.
..Marsh.. 12/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
WW 0643 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 643
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ALN
TO 30 SW DEC TO 20 WNW CMI TO 40 ESE MMO.
..WENDT..12/28/25
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND...IWX...LMK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 643
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-005-019-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-047-049-051-053-
055-059-065-069-075-077-079-081-087-091-101-121-127-135-139-145-
147-151-153-157-159-165-173-181-183-185-189-191-193-199-
282240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER BOND CHAMPAIGN
CLARK CLAY CLINTON
COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND
DOUGLAS EDGAR EDWARDS
EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FORD
FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON
HARDIN IROQUOIS JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KANKAKEE LAWRENCE MARION
MASSAC MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE
PERRY PIATT POPE
PULASKI RANDOLPH RICHLAND
SALINE SHELBY UNION
VERMILION WABASH WASHINGTON
WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON
Read more
WW 643 TORNADO IL IN KY MO 282045Z - 290200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 643
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern and Central Illinois
Western and Central Indiana
Western Kentucky
Far Southeast Missouri
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
900 PM EST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will move quickly
east-northeastward this afternoon and evening while posing a threat
for scattered severe/damaging winds up to 65-75 mph and a couple of
tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Lafayette
IN to 5 miles southeast of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 26045.
...Gleason
Read more
MD 2281 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Areas affected...Far eastern Missouri...central and southern
Illinois...and western Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 281918Z - 282115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A band of storms is expected to form along the cold front
by mid afternoon in Illinois and spread eastward through late
evening into Indiana. Occasional wind damage and a couple of
tornadoes will be the main threats, and a watch is possible by
20-21z.
DISCUSSION...A surface cyclone is in the early stages of deepening
along a baroclinic zone across northern IL, downstream from an
amplifying midlevel trough and associated 100+ kt midlevel jet.
Within the warm sector of the cyclone, visible satellite imagery
shows some cloud breaks from MO into central IL, where surface
temperatures have warmed to 68+ F with dewpoints in the low 60s.
Surface-based CAPE has increased to 500-1000 J/kg as convective
inhibition weakens immediately ahead of the front. Shallow
convection is ongoing in the zone of ascent along the front, and the
threat for thunderstorms will increase through late afternoon as the
front interacts with the moist/weakly unstable boundary layer into
IL.
Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favor supercells. Still,
relatively weak buoyancy, linear forcing for ascent and fairly fast
frontal movement favor a more linear storm mode tied closely to the
frontal circulation. Thus, a mixed convective mode is probable,
with damaging gusts the main threat given roughly 50 kt flow in the
lowest 1-2 km above ground level. A couple of tornadoes may also
occur with any sustained supercells and/or embedded circulations
within line segments. A watch may need to be considered by 20-21z.
..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38998743 37448896 37519006 38929046 39679034 40678945
41028902 41118844 41258684 41068649 40188648 38998743
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 2278 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Areas affected...North central Iowa...southern and eastern Minnesota
and northwestern Wisconsin
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 281552Z - 282145Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow, with rates near 1 inch per hour, is expected
to develop by midday in east central Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin. Occasional blizzard conditions are expected into
southern Minnesota and northern Iowa.
DISCUSSION...Gradual erosion of a warm nose (noted in the 12z MPX
sounding) will continue through the afternoon from eastern MN into
northwest WI as a result of strengthening ascent and
cooling/saturation of profiles to the northwest of a deepening
cyclone now near the IA/MO/IL border. Near-surface cooling from
northwest-to-southeast will become more favorable for
accumulating/heavy snow from east central MN into northwest WI
within the primary deformation band, while snowfall rates will be
lower farther southwest into southern MN/northern IA. However, a
strengthening pressure gradient and rapidly falling temperatures
into the teens/single digits will result in blowing snow and
blizzard conditions (frequent gusts 35-50 mph with visibility
reduced to 1/4 mi or less) from southern MN/northern IA through the
afternoon.
..Thompson.. 12/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 44149300 43569311 43169339 42899399 42959490 43549539
44319536 45199483 46129356 46609234 46829155 46809116
46409115 46039152 45179278 44709305 44149300
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Midwest and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon through the evening.
Severe/damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes are the primary
threats.
...20Z Update...
The only change to the outlook for this issuance is to trim the
Marginal Risk area across parts of north-central Illinois behind a
cold front that is moving southeastward across the region.
..Broyles.. 12/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025/
...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
An upper trough/low over the northern Plains this morning will
further intensify today as it develops towards the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes through the period. Pronounced large-scale
ascent associated with a strengthening mid/upper jet (100-120 kt at
500 mb) over the mid MS Valley into IL/IN will encourage rapid
deepening of a surface low as it develops from central/northern IL
into Lower MI by this evening. A rather moist low-level airmass with
generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints will continue to
spread northward across the mid MS Valley into parts of the
Midwest/OH Valley and southern Great Lakes regions in tandem with a
northward-shifting surface warm front. A cold front is also expected
to sweep east-southeastward across these regions this
afternoon/evening as the surface low tracks northeastward. This cold
front should serve as a focus for strong to severe convection later
today.
The 12Z ILX sounding showed a moist but saturated profile through
much of the troposphere, with strong west-southwesterly
mid/upper-level winds already present over the warm sector. Current
expectations are for ongoing, mostly elevated convection across
central IL to pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to locally
severe gusts given the strength of the mid-level flow. This activity
may linger along/just north the warm front through the afternoon as
it spreads quickly east-northeastward into IN. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to form along/near the cold front across
IL and vicinity by 20-22Z as modest/filtered daytime heating occurs,
with come cloud breaks already noted in visible satellite imagery
across east-central MO/south-central IL. It does appear that surface
temperatures are warming faster/more than forecast by some guidance
across the warm sector in IL, with 16Z observations at some stations
already reaching into the upper 60s/low 70s.
The more aggressive 12Z guidance and recent RAP runs suggest that
around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE may ultimately develop in a narrow
corridor across eastern IL and western IN/KY ahead of the front,
even though modest lapse rates aloft will likely inhibit more robust
destabilization. This weak instability should be sufficient to
support organized updrafts, as both low-level and deep-layer shear
will be quite strong owing to the strengthening wind profiles across
the warm sector this afternoon/evening with the approaching
mid/upper-jet. There is still some uncertainty regarding the
potential for pre-frontal convection. But, any low-topped supercells
that can form and be sustained should pose a threat for a couple of
tornadoes with upwards of 200-250 m2/s2 of effective SRH present.
Eventual development of a thin/forced line of convection along the
cold front appears likely, with a threat for scattered
severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of embedded tornadoes. At
least an isolated severe threat may persist this evening/tonight
across the OH Valley and parts of western PA, where low-level flow
is forecast to remain quite strong even with minimal instability.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Midwest and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon through the evening.
Severe/damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes are the primary
threats.
...20Z Update...
The only change to the outlook for this issuance is to trim the
Marginal Risk area across parts of north-central Illinois behind a
cold front that is moving southeastward across the region.
..Broyles.. 12/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025/
...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
An upper trough/low over the northern Plains this morning will
further intensify today as it develops towards the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes through the period. Pronounced large-scale
ascent associated with a strengthening mid/upper jet (100-120 kt at
500 mb) over the mid MS Valley into IL/IN will encourage rapid
deepening of a surface low as it develops from central/northern IL
into Lower MI by this evening. A rather moist low-level airmass with
generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints will continue to
spread northward across the mid MS Valley into parts of the
Midwest/OH Valley and southern Great Lakes regions in tandem with a
northward-shifting surface warm front. A cold front is also expected
to sweep east-southeastward across these regions this
afternoon/evening as the surface low tracks northeastward. This cold
front should serve as a focus for strong to severe convection later
today.
The 12Z ILX sounding showed a moist but saturated profile through
much of the troposphere, with strong west-southwesterly
mid/upper-level winds already present over the warm sector. Current
expectations are for ongoing, mostly elevated convection across
central IL to pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to locally
severe gusts given the strength of the mid-level flow. This activity
may linger along/just north the warm front through the afternoon as
it spreads quickly east-northeastward into IN. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to form along/near the cold front across
IL and vicinity by 20-22Z as modest/filtered daytime heating occurs,
with come cloud breaks already noted in visible satellite imagery
across east-central MO/south-central IL. It does appear that surface
temperatures are warming faster/more than forecast by some guidance
across the warm sector in IL, with 16Z observations at some stations
already reaching into the upper 60s/low 70s.
The more aggressive 12Z guidance and recent RAP runs suggest that
around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE may ultimately develop in a narrow
corridor across eastern IL and western IN/KY ahead of the front,
even though modest lapse rates aloft will likely inhibit more robust
destabilization. This weak instability should be sufficient to
support organized updrafts, as both low-level and deep-layer shear
will be quite strong owing to the strengthening wind profiles across
the warm sector this afternoon/evening with the approaching
mid/upper-jet. There is still some uncertainty regarding the
potential for pre-frontal convection. But, any low-topped supercells
that can form and be sustained should pose a threat for a couple of
tornadoes with upwards of 200-250 m2/s2 of effective SRH present.
Eventual development of a thin/forced line of convection along the
cold front appears likely, with a threat for scattered
severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of embedded tornadoes. At
least an isolated severe threat may persist this evening/tonight
across the OH Valley and parts of western PA, where low-level flow
is forecast to remain quite strong even with minimal instability.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Midwest and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon through the evening.
Severe/damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes are the primary
threats.
...20Z Update...
The only change to the outlook for this issuance is to trim the
Marginal Risk area across parts of north-central Illinois behind a
cold front that is moving southeastward across the region.
..Broyles.. 12/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025/
...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
An upper trough/low over the northern Plains this morning will
further intensify today as it develops towards the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes through the period. Pronounced large-scale
ascent associated with a strengthening mid/upper jet (100-120 kt at
500 mb) over the mid MS Valley into IL/IN will encourage rapid
deepening of a surface low as it develops from central/northern IL
into Lower MI by this evening. A rather moist low-level airmass with
generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints will continue to
spread northward across the mid MS Valley into parts of the
Midwest/OH Valley and southern Great Lakes regions in tandem with a
northward-shifting surface warm front. A cold front is also expected
to sweep east-southeastward across these regions this
afternoon/evening as the surface low tracks northeastward. This cold
front should serve as a focus for strong to severe convection later
today.
The 12Z ILX sounding showed a moist but saturated profile through
much of the troposphere, with strong west-southwesterly
mid/upper-level winds already present over the warm sector. Current
expectations are for ongoing, mostly elevated convection across
central IL to pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to locally
severe gusts given the strength of the mid-level flow. This activity
may linger along/just north the warm front through the afternoon as
it spreads quickly east-northeastward into IN. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to form along/near the cold front across
IL and vicinity by 20-22Z as modest/filtered daytime heating occurs,
with come cloud breaks already noted in visible satellite imagery
across east-central MO/south-central IL. It does appear that surface
temperatures are warming faster/more than forecast by some guidance
across the warm sector in IL, with 16Z observations at some stations
already reaching into the upper 60s/low 70s.
The more aggressive 12Z guidance and recent RAP runs suggest that
around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE may ultimately develop in a narrow
corridor across eastern IL and western IN/KY ahead of the front,
even though modest lapse rates aloft will likely inhibit more robust
destabilization. This weak instability should be sufficient to
support organized updrafts, as both low-level and deep-layer shear
will be quite strong owing to the strengthening wind profiles across
the warm sector this afternoon/evening with the approaching
mid/upper-jet. There is still some uncertainty regarding the
potential for pre-frontal convection. But, any low-topped supercells
that can form and be sustained should pose a threat for a couple of
tornadoes with upwards of 200-250 m2/s2 of effective SRH present.
Eventual development of a thin/forced line of convection along the
cold front appears likely, with a threat for scattered
severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of embedded tornadoes. At
least an isolated severe threat may persist this evening/tonight
across the OH Valley and parts of western PA, where low-level flow
is forecast to remain quite strong even with minimal instability.
Read more
