SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
ILLINOIS TO INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over Illinois and
Indiana this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts
capable of wind damage and a couple of tornadoes are the primary
threats.
...Mid MS Valley east through IN-OH-western PA...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low near the
MT/ND border with a trough into the central Rockies/Sangre de
Cristos. This mid-level low will move into the central Great Lakes
by early Monday morning. Strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (80 kt)
extending from the base of the trough through the lower MO Valley
and OH Valley will feature an intensifying 110-kt jet reaching the
MO-IL border this evening before further strengthening to 130 kt
over OH by the end of the period.
A surface low over eastern KS will deepen rapidly through tonight as
it moves to Lake Huron. A frontal zone extending east-northeast
through the southern Great Lakes this morning will serve as the
northern edge of the moist sector. A cold front initially over
KS-OK will surge south-east. Southerly low-level flow across the
moist sector will maintain a fetch of seasonably high 58-62 deg F
dewpoints immediately ahead of the front/low.
A rain shield with embedded thunderstorms this morning from northern
MO into the southern Great Lakes could feature a stronger storm or
two through midday, but the primary severe risk will likely focus
this afternoon through tonight. Model guidance indicates the cap
will erode near the evolving triple point and cold front by mid-late
afternoon. Upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is possible across parts
of central into eastern IL with buoyancy tapering with east extent
across the OH Valley. A southward-developing convective band is
forecast to evolve late this afternoon through the early evening.
Long hodographs and strong 2-3 km flow will favor a risk for severe
gusts with the more intense storms and surges with the maturing
band. Models indicate the wind-damage threat may persist across the
OH Valley/southern Great Lakes tonight despite meager instability.
The tornado risk appears highest with cells that can develop near
the instability axis and mature before either destructive
interference of the larger-scale cold pool overwhelms cellular mode,
and/or this activity moves farther east into lessening instability.
..Smith/Weinman.. 12/28/2025
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
ILLINOIS TO INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over Illinois and
Indiana this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts
capable of wind damage and a couple of tornadoes are the primary
threats.
...Mid MS Valley east through IN-OH-western PA...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low near the
MT/ND border with a trough into the central Rockies/Sangre de
Cristos. This mid-level low will move into the central Great Lakes
by early Monday morning. Strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (80 kt)
extending from the base of the trough through the lower MO Valley
and OH Valley will feature an intensifying 110-kt jet reaching the
MO-IL border this evening before further strengthening to 130 kt
over OH by the end of the period.
A surface low over eastern KS will deepen rapidly through tonight as
it moves to Lake Huron. A frontal zone extending east-northeast
through the southern Great Lakes this morning will serve as the
northern edge of the moist sector. A cold front initially over
KS-OK will surge south-east. Southerly low-level flow across the
moist sector will maintain a fetch of seasonably high 58-62 deg F
dewpoints immediately ahead of the front/low.
A rain shield with embedded thunderstorms this morning from northern
MO into the southern Great Lakes could feature a stronger storm or
two through midday, but the primary severe risk will likely focus
this afternoon through tonight. Model guidance indicates the cap
will erode near the evolving triple point and cold front by mid-late
afternoon. Upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is possible across parts
of central into eastern IL with buoyancy tapering with east extent
across the OH Valley. A southward-developing convective band is
forecast to evolve late this afternoon through the early evening.
Long hodographs and strong 2-3 km flow will favor a risk for severe
gusts with the more intense storms and surges with the maturing
band. Models indicate the wind-damage threat may persist across the
OH Valley/southern Great Lakes tonight despite meager instability.
The tornado risk appears highest with cells that can develop near
the instability axis and mature before either destructive
interference of the larger-scale cold pool overwhelms cellular mode,
and/or this activity moves farther east into lessening instability.
..Smith/Weinman.. 12/28/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Return flow will ensue along the western Gulf Coast mid-week,
yielding air mass modification from the prior continental intrusion.
Bulk of deterministic guidance has trended toward earlier EC-AIFS
signals of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east across
the southern states through late week. While run-to-run
predictability and spread across models remains subpar, convective
potential should increase by D6-7/Friday-Saturday across parts of
the Gulf Coast States. At this point, with only modest cyclogenesis
consistently progged, overall severe potential still appears
marginal. Latest ML guidance from SPC-CSU and NSSL for the GEFS, and
yesterday's NCAR for the ECENS, support this notion with individual
day probabilities holding at 5 percent or less.
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast tomorrow (Monday),
resulting in northwesterly upper flow overspreading the Plains
states through the Day 2 period. Northwesterly flow will also
prevail at the surface over the Plains as surface high pressure
settles over the region. Sustained surface north-northwesterly winds
should peak around 15 mph by afternoon, amid 40 F surface
temperatures and 15-25 percent RH. Given drying fuels, the
aforementioned meteorological conditions should support low-end
Elevated conditions. The best chance for these conditions will be
across the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas and western
Oklahoma, where Elevated highlights have been introduced.
..Squitieri.. 12/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. today,
supporting the eastward advancement of a surface low and associated
cold front sweeping across the MS Valley during the day. Strong
northwesterly surface flow will overspread the Plains states,
resulting in cooler temperatures but dry and windy conditions.
Across portions of the southern Plains, behind the cold front, 25+
mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will prevail for several
hours atop dry fuels. Despite 25-35 percent RH, the aforementioned
combination of modestly dry fuels, and strong sustained winds, will
yield high-end Elevated conditions for western and northern Texas
into Oklahoma during the 18Z-00Z (Noon to 6 PM CST) time frame.
..Squitieri.. 12/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. today,
supporting the eastward advancement of a surface low and associated
cold front sweeping across the MS Valley during the day. Strong
northwesterly surface flow will overspread the Plains states,
resulting in cooler temperatures but dry and windy conditions.
Across portions of the southern Plains, behind the cold front, 25+
mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will prevail for several
hours atop dry fuels. Despite 25-35 percent RH, the aforementioned
combination of modestly dry fuels, and strong sustained winds, will
yield high-end Elevated conditions for western and northern Texas
into Oklahoma during the 18Z-00Z (Noon to 6 PM CST) time frame.
..Squitieri.. 12/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday Night.
...Discussion...
A deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Monday will occlude as
it tracks into QC. A full-latitude occluded/cold front will arc
across NY to the FL Panhandle and western Gulf on Monday morning,
before clearing the entire Atlantic Seaboard by Monday night.
Scant elevated buoyancy may be present in two regimes on Monday
morning. One within the low-level warm conveyor ahead of the
occluded portion of the front across parts of eastern NY into New
England. The second immediately behind the cold front along the Rio
Grande in Deep South TX. Thunderstorm probabilities, while nonzero,
still appear to be below 10 percent in both areas. In between, weak
mid-level lapse rates should support only shallow convection across
the Southeast as the front moves east.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday Night.
...Discussion...
A deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Monday will occlude as
it tracks into QC. A full-latitude occluded/cold front will arc
across NY to the FL Panhandle and western Gulf on Monday morning,
before clearing the entire Atlantic Seaboard by Monday night.
Scant elevated buoyancy may be present in two regimes on Monday
morning. One within the low-level warm conveyor ahead of the
occluded portion of the front across parts of eastern NY into New
England. The second immediately behind the cold front along the Rio
Grande in Deep South TX. Thunderstorm probabilities, while nonzero,
still appear to be below 10 percent in both areas. In between, weak
mid-level lapse rates should support only shallow convection across
the Southeast as the front moves east.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday Night.
...Discussion...
A deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Monday will occlude as
it tracks into QC. A full-latitude occluded/cold front will arc
across NY to the FL Panhandle and western Gulf on Monday morning,
before clearing the entire Atlantic Seaboard by Monday night.
Scant elevated buoyancy may be present in two regimes on Monday
morning. One within the low-level warm conveyor ahead of the
occluded portion of the front across parts of eastern NY into New
England. The second immediately behind the cold front along the Rio
Grande in Deep South TX. Thunderstorm probabilities, while nonzero,
still appear to be below 10 percent in both areas. In between, weak
mid-level lapse rates should support only shallow convection across
the Southeast as the front moves east.
..Grams.. 12/28/2025
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may develop over Missouri and Illinois today,
and move across parts of Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio through evening.
A few damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary severe threat.
...Synopsis...
An upper low will deepen as it moves from the northern Plains into
the upper Great Lakes, with rapidly intensifying mid and high level
flow and strong height falls spreading across much of the Midwest.
At the surface, low pressure will deepen from northern MO this
morning into Lower MI by 00Z, with an intense cold front trailing
southwest from the low. By mid afternoon, this front will extend
from northern IL into eastern MO and northwest AR, with southerly
winds aiding northward moisture transport with dewpoints near 60 F.
A warm front will lift across IL, IN, and southern Lower MI as the
low develops northeastward. Lift along these boundaries will support
scattered thunderstorms, with the greatest probabilities generally
near the surface low track from northeast MO into Lower MI. Given
strong wind fields, sporadic severe storms may occur.
...From MO into OH...
For the morning hours, scattered elevated thunderstorms appear
likely from eastern IA across northern IL, IN, and southern Lower MI
north of the warm front and in the zone of theta-e advection.
Forecast soundings indicate sufficient MUCAPE for perhaps small
hail.
From midday into the afternoon, SBCAPE over 500 J/kg is forecast
ahead of the cold front and near the surface low from eastern MO
across central IL and into IN. This is conditionally a favorable
area for supercells, though in this case the lack of surface heating
along with a cap below 700 mb suggest the bulk of the diurnal
convection should be relegated to the cold front, in which case a
linear mode seems likely. Still, given hodographs favoring
supercells, a few embedded areas of rotation will be possible and a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, damaging winds will be
the primary concern
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 12/28/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may develop over Missouri and Illinois today,
and move across parts of Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio through evening.
A few damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary severe threat.
...Synopsis...
An upper low will deepen as it moves from the northern Plains into
the upper Great Lakes, with rapidly intensifying mid and high level
flow and strong height falls spreading across much of the Midwest.
At the surface, low pressure will deepen from northern MO this
morning into Lower MI by 00Z, with an intense cold front trailing
southwest from the low. By mid afternoon, this front will extend
from northern IL into eastern MO and northwest AR, with southerly
winds aiding northward moisture transport with dewpoints near 60 F.
A warm front will lift across IL, IN, and southern Lower MI as the
low develops northeastward. Lift along these boundaries will support
scattered thunderstorms, with the greatest probabilities generally
near the surface low track from northeast MO into Lower MI. Given
strong wind fields, sporadic severe storms may occur.
...From MO into OH...
For the morning hours, scattered elevated thunderstorms appear
likely from eastern IA across northern IL, IN, and southern Lower MI
north of the warm front and in the zone of theta-e advection.
Forecast soundings indicate sufficient MUCAPE for perhaps small
hail.
From midday into the afternoon, SBCAPE over 500 J/kg is forecast
ahead of the cold front and near the surface low from eastern MO
across central IL and into IN. This is conditionally a favorable
area for supercells, though in this case the lack of surface heating
along with a cap below 700 mb suggest the bulk of the diurnal
convection should be relegated to the cold front, in which case a
linear mode seems likely. Still, given hodographs favoring
supercells, a few embedded areas of rotation will be possible and a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, damaging winds will be
the primary concern
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 12/28/2025
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may develop over Missouri and Illinois today,
and move across parts of Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio through evening.
A few damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary severe threat.
...Synopsis...
An upper low will deepen as it moves from the northern Plains into
the upper Great Lakes, with rapidly intensifying mid and high level
flow and strong height falls spreading across much of the Midwest.
At the surface, low pressure will deepen from northern MO this
morning into Lower MI by 00Z, with an intense cold front trailing
southwest from the low. By mid afternoon, this front will extend
from northern IL into eastern MO and northwest AR, with southerly
winds aiding northward moisture transport with dewpoints near 60 F.
A warm front will lift across IL, IN, and southern Lower MI as the
low develops northeastward. Lift along these boundaries will support
scattered thunderstorms, with the greatest probabilities generally
near the surface low track from northeast MO into Lower MI. Given
strong wind fields, sporadic severe storms may occur.
...From MO into OH...
For the morning hours, scattered elevated thunderstorms appear
likely from eastern IA across northern IL, IN, and southern Lower MI
north of the warm front and in the zone of theta-e advection.
Forecast soundings indicate sufficient MUCAPE for perhaps small
hail.
From midday into the afternoon, SBCAPE over 500 J/kg is forecast
ahead of the cold front and near the surface low from eastern MO
across central IL and into IN. This is conditionally a favorable
area for supercells, though in this case the lack of surface heating
along with a cap below 700 mb suggest the bulk of the diurnal
convection should be relegated to the cold front, in which case a
linear mode seems likely. Still, given hodographs favoring
supercells, a few embedded areas of rotation will be possible and a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, damaging winds will be
the primary concern
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 12/28/2025
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
...Discussion...
Low pressure will shift eastward across KS tonight and into western
MO by Sunday morning, ahead of a cold front surging into the central
Plains. Southwesterly low-level winds will maintain warmth ahead of
the cold front, with dewpoints to around 60 F spreading northward
toward I-70 late. Increasing lift associated with the front and
approaching upper trough should instigate scattered thunderstorms
over northeast KS and into northern MO, primarily after 09Z.
Forecast soundings indicate elevated MUCAPE over 500 J/kg will
develop, while deep-layer effective shear remains strong. This may
yield a few stronger cells, possibly producing small hail, though
the most likely scenario is for hail to remain below severe levels.
..Jewell.. 12/28/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
...Discussion...
Low pressure will shift eastward across KS tonight and into western
MO by Sunday morning, ahead of a cold front surging into the central
Plains. Southwesterly low-level winds will maintain warmth ahead of
the cold front, with dewpoints to around 60 F spreading northward
toward I-70 late. Increasing lift associated with the front and
approaching upper trough should instigate scattered thunderstorms
over northeast KS and into northern MO, primarily after 09Z.
Forecast soundings indicate elevated MUCAPE over 500 J/kg will
develop, while deep-layer effective shear remains strong. This may
yield a few stronger cells, possibly producing small hail, though
the most likely scenario is for hail to remain below severe levels.
..Jewell.. 12/28/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
The mid-level ridge across the central United States will finally be
suppressed to the south by the start of this forecast period as a
strong cyclone evolves across the Great Lakes. This strong cyclone
will drive a cold front southward into the Gulf of America and
through the Southeast, ushering in a cold, dry continental airmass
across much of the eastern US. Despite the cooler airmass, elevated
to locally critical fire weather conditions may develop across
portions of the Southern Plains on Monday (D3) and Tuesday (D4).
On Monday the dry airmass will be fully entrenched across the Plains
as a strong surface anticyclone takes hold from the Northern Plains
into the Southern Plains. The result will be minimum afternoon
relative humidity will be lower than on Sunday, falling into the
teens and twenty percent range. Winds, however, will be considerably
weaker than on Sunday, with maximum gusts likely in the 10-20 mph
range. The result will be elevated to locally critical fire
conditions for at least a couple of hours during the afternoon.
On Tuesday the center of the surface anticyclone will slide east of
the Plains resulting in winds turning to the west and southwest.
This will set the stage for a potential dry return flow regime
across western Oklahoma. Minimum relative humidity will once again
be in the teens in the presence of potentially gusty afternoon
winds. This may once again result in elevated to locally critical
fire weather concerns.
Through the rest of the forecast period, the large-scale pattern
across the CONUS will consist of a northwest flow regime owing to a
western ridge and eastern trough. The northwest flow pattern will
limit appreciable moisture return into the eastern US, such that any
embedded disturbance within the larger-scale flow pattern could
result in elevated fire weather concerns. However, the subtlety of
any of these features is such that the timing of any such feature is
below the scale of predictability at these time ranges.
..Marsh.. 12/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
The mid-level ridge across the central United States will finally be
suppressed to the south by the start of this forecast period as a
strong cyclone evolves across the Great Lakes. This strong cyclone
will drive a cold front southward into the Gulf of America and
through the Southeast, ushering in a cold, dry continental airmass
across much of the eastern US. Despite the cooler airmass, elevated
to locally critical fire weather conditions may develop across
portions of the Southern Plains on Monday (D3) and Tuesday (D4).
On Monday the dry airmass will be fully entrenched across the Plains
as a strong surface anticyclone takes hold from the Northern Plains
into the Southern Plains. The result will be minimum afternoon
relative humidity will be lower than on Sunday, falling into the
teens and twenty percent range. Winds, however, will be considerably
weaker than on Sunday, with maximum gusts likely in the 10-20 mph
range. The result will be elevated to locally critical fire
conditions for at least a couple of hours during the afternoon.
On Tuesday the center of the surface anticyclone will slide east of
the Plains resulting in winds turning to the west and southwest.
This will set the stage for a potential dry return flow regime
across western Oklahoma. Minimum relative humidity will once again
be in the teens in the presence of potentially gusty afternoon
winds. This may once again result in elevated to locally critical
fire weather concerns.
Through the rest of the forecast period, the large-scale pattern
across the CONUS will consist of a northwest flow regime owing to a
western ridge and eastern trough. The northwest flow pattern will
limit appreciable moisture return into the eastern US, such that any
embedded disturbance within the larger-scale flow pattern could
result in elevated fire weather concerns. However, the subtlety of
any of these features is such that the timing of any such feature is
below the scale of predictability at these time ranges.
..Marsh.. 12/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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