Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward from the western CONUS across much of the Plains through the period. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this upper trough, meager low-level moisture and cool surface temperatures should generally limit instability and the potential for lightning with any convective showers that can develop this afternoon across the Great Basin/Rockies. Low-level moisture will gradually return northward through tonight across the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley ahead of a strong cold front and deepening surface low over the central Plains and mid MO Valley. Increasing warm/moist advection associated with a low-level jet should eventually support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across parts of eastern KS into MO and central IL late tonight/early Sunday morning. With MUCAPE forecast to remain generally less than 750 J/kg, the potential for severe hail with elevated convection appears low even though deep-layer shear will be strong. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast largely remains on track. The only change was to expand the elevated area slightly to the south and east. A weak/diffuse dryline will develop this afternoon to the south of a weak surface low developing across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. To the west of the dryline, modest drying of the low levels associated with gusty downslope flow will support minimum RH in the upper-teens to mid-twenties. This, when coupled with gusty afternoon winds, will support a few hours of elevated to perhaps locally critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 12/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will gradually shift east throughout the day, while an upper-level trough enters the Northern Rockies and impinges on western periphery of the ridge. This process will promote a tightening of the height gradient aloft and enhancement of the flow, from the southern High Plains into the central Great Plains. At the surface, a combination of lee cyclogenesis and diurnally driven mixing west of a developing dry line should allow for a few hours of Elevated fire-weather conditions to develop. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph and RH values into the low to mid 20s will be possible across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles and vicinity where prolonged arid conditions have led to dry/receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast largely remains on track. The only change was to expand the elevated area slightly to the south and east. A weak/diffuse dryline will develop this afternoon to the south of a weak surface low developing across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. To the west of the dryline, modest drying of the low levels associated with gusty downslope flow will support minimum RH in the upper-teens to mid-twenties. This, when coupled with gusty afternoon winds, will support a few hours of elevated to perhaps locally critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 12/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will gradually shift east throughout the day, while an upper-level trough enters the Northern Rockies and impinges on western periphery of the ridge. This process will promote a tightening of the height gradient aloft and enhancement of the flow, from the southern High Plains into the central Great Plains. At the surface, a combination of lee cyclogenesis and diurnally driven mixing west of a developing dry line should allow for a few hours of Elevated fire-weather conditions to develop. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph and RH values into the low to mid 20s will be possible across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles and vicinity where prolonged arid conditions have led to dry/receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast largely remains on track. The only change was to expand the elevated area slightly to the south and east. A weak/diffuse dryline will develop this afternoon to the south of a weak surface low developing across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. To the west of the dryline, modest drying of the low levels associated with gusty downslope flow will support minimum RH in the upper-teens to mid-twenties. This, when coupled with gusty afternoon winds, will support a few hours of elevated to perhaps locally critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 12/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will gradually shift east throughout the day, while an upper-level trough enters the Northern Rockies and impinges on western periphery of the ridge. This process will promote a tightening of the height gradient aloft and enhancement of the flow, from the southern High Plains into the central Great Plains. At the surface, a combination of lee cyclogenesis and diurnally driven mixing west of a developing dry line should allow for a few hours of Elevated fire-weather conditions to develop. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph and RH values into the low to mid 20s will be possible across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles and vicinity where prolonged arid conditions have led to dry/receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast largely remains on track. The only change was to expand the elevated area slightly to the south and east. A weak/diffuse dryline will develop this afternoon to the south of a weak surface low developing across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. To the west of the dryline, modest drying of the low levels associated with gusty downslope flow will support minimum RH in the upper-teens to mid-twenties. This, when coupled with gusty afternoon winds, will support a few hours of elevated to perhaps locally critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 12/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will gradually shift east throughout the day, while an upper-level trough enters the Northern Rockies and impinges on western periphery of the ridge. This process will promote a tightening of the height gradient aloft and enhancement of the flow, from the southern High Plains into the central Great Plains. At the surface, a combination of lee cyclogenesis and diurnally driven mixing west of a developing dry line should allow for a few hours of Elevated fire-weather conditions to develop. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph and RH values into the low to mid 20s will be possible across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles and vicinity where prolonged arid conditions have led to dry/receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the West. This upper feature will move east and reach the Dakotas and central Rockies by early Sunday morning. Ahead of this trough, upper ridging will occur over the MS/OH Valleys with a warm conveyor focused over the lower MO Valley. Low 60s F dewpoints will stream north out of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley toward the lower MO/Mid MS Valley late and ahead of an approaching cold front pushing southeast into the KS/IA vicinity. Weak instability is forecast to gradually develop tonight over the lower MO/mid MS Valley with an increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms evolving primarily after midnight. Despite strong effective shear, current thinking is storm intensity will be limited with the elevated storm activity and hail potential will remain sub severe. ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the West. This upper feature will move east and reach the Dakotas and central Rockies by early Sunday morning. Ahead of this trough, upper ridging will occur over the MS/OH Valleys with a warm conveyor focused over the lower MO Valley. Low 60s F dewpoints will stream north out of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley toward the lower MO/Mid MS Valley late and ahead of an approaching cold front pushing southeast into the KS/IA vicinity. Weak instability is forecast to gradually develop tonight over the lower MO/mid MS Valley with an increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms evolving primarily after midnight. Despite strong effective shear, current thinking is storm intensity will be limited with the elevated storm activity and hail potential will remain sub severe. ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the West. This upper feature will move east and reach the Dakotas and central Rockies by early Sunday morning. Ahead of this trough, upper ridging will occur over the MS/OH Valleys with a warm conveyor focused over the lower MO Valley. Low 60s F dewpoints will stream north out of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley toward the lower MO/Mid MS Valley late and ahead of an approaching cold front pushing southeast into the KS/IA vicinity. Weak instability is forecast to gradually develop tonight over the lower MO/mid MS Valley with an increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms evolving primarily after midnight. Despite strong effective shear, current thinking is storm intensity will be limited with the elevated storm activity and hail potential will remain sub severe. ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/27/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A quiescent pattern is expected mid-week, in the wake of a D2-3 continental air mass intrusion across much of the Gulf. Return flow and air mass modification will ensue late week into next weekend. Run-to-run predictability remains low by this time frame, but some models suggest a southern-stream shortwave trough could interact with this moistening plume. This may support non-negligible severe potential over the western Gulf States towards D8. Even this scenario appears to be of sufficiently marginal amplitude, outside of a singular 00Z CMC outlier, to likely yield low severe probabilities through next Saturday. GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance are in alignment with sub-5 percent severe probs on D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A quiescent pattern is expected mid-week, in the wake of a D2-3 continental air mass intrusion across much of the Gulf. Return flow and air mass modification will ensue late week into next weekend. Run-to-run predictability remains low by this time frame, but some models suggest a southern-stream shortwave trough could interact with this moistening plume. This may support non-negligible severe potential over the western Gulf States towards D8. Even this scenario appears to be of sufficiently marginal amplitude, outside of a singular 00Z CMC outlier, to likely yield low severe probabilities through next Saturday. GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance are in alignment with sub-5 percent severe probs on D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A quiescent pattern is expected mid-week, in the wake of a D2-3 continental air mass intrusion across much of the Gulf. Return flow and air mass modification will ensue late week into next weekend. Run-to-run predictability remains low by this time frame, but some models suggest a southern-stream shortwave trough could interact with this moistening plume. This may support non-negligible severe potential over the western Gulf States towards D8. Even this scenario appears to be of sufficiently marginal amplitude, outside of a singular 00Z CMC outlier, to likely yield low severe probabilities through next Saturday. GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance are in alignment with sub-5 percent severe probs on D8. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday night. ...Discussion... A deep surface cyclone over Lake Huron at 12Z Monday should gradually fill as it occludes and tracks into southern QC. Secondary cyclogenesis should occur over ME into the Canadian Maritimes. The surface warm-moist sector will be confined to the Southeast, up to near the VA Tidewater, ahead of a progressive cold front. Guidance is consistent with negligible instability along/ahead of the front, which should clear all but the FL Peninsula by late afternoon and then shift entirely offshore Monday night. Shallow convection is possible along portions of the front, with thunderstorm probabilities appearing to be less than 10 percent. ..Grams.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday night. ...Discussion... A deep surface cyclone over Lake Huron at 12Z Monday should gradually fill as it occludes and tracks into southern QC. Secondary cyclogenesis should occur over ME into the Canadian Maritimes. The surface warm-moist sector will be confined to the Southeast, up to near the VA Tidewater, ahead of a progressive cold front. Guidance is consistent with negligible instability along/ahead of the front, which should clear all but the FL Peninsula by late afternoon and then shift entirely offshore Monday night. Shallow convection is possible along portions of the front, with thunderstorm probabilities appearing to be less than 10 percent. ..Grams.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday night. ...Discussion... A deep surface cyclone over Lake Huron at 12Z Monday should gradually fill as it occludes and tracks into southern QC. Secondary cyclogenesis should occur over ME into the Canadian Maritimes. The surface warm-moist sector will be confined to the Southeast, up to near the VA Tidewater, ahead of a progressive cold front. Guidance is consistent with negligible instability along/ahead of the front, which should clear all but the FL Peninsula by late afternoon and then shift entirely offshore Monday night. Shallow convection is possible along portions of the front, with thunderstorm probabilities appearing to be less than 10 percent. ..Grams.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MO/AR TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability severe thunderstorm threat is forecast from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from Missouri-Arkansas into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...MO/AR to the OH/TN Valleys... Phasing of multiple shortwave impulses will support amplification of an upper trough, mainly on Sunday night, as it progresses from the High Plains to the Great Lakes. This will induce deepening of a surface cyclone from the Lower MO Valley towards Lake Huron. Attendant cold front will accelerate Sunday night as it quickly sweeps east into the Upper OH Valley and south into the northwest Gulf by 12Z Monday. Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are most likely on Sunday morning across parts of the Mid-MS Valley to the southern Great Lakes within a strengthening low-level warm conveyor. It is plausible that a few updrafts might weakly rotate, but meager buoyancy atop the stable surface and cluster convective mode appears supportive of only small hail. Primary forecast challenge is the degree of surface-based destabilization by Sunday afternoon, which will largely influence tornado and severe thunderstorm wind potential. Latest guidance remains split into two paths. This evening's RRFS/RAP/HRRR/HRW-ARW suggest that a plume of meager buoyancy with MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg should become established ahead of a cold front across the Ozarks to a portion of the Mid-MS Valley near the surface cyclone by afternoon. Meanwhile the NAM and HRW-NSSL indicate little to no surface-based buoyancy in the warm-moist sector along the front. Guidance consensus does suggest at least a low-topped, thin QLCS should become established along the front from IL/IN towards AR by early evening. The progressive nature of the front along with the paucity of surface-based instability downstream renders large uncertainty in whether lightning-producing convection will be maintained Sunday night along the front. However, kinematic fields will become increasingly impressive, with strong gusts likely accompanying low-topped convection along the front. CAM consensus though is for convection to wane early morning Monday as instability remains negligible. As such, have maintained the prior level 1-MRGL risk for wind, with a subset of low tornado probabilities from MO to IN. ..Grams.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MO/AR TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability severe thunderstorm threat is forecast from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from Missouri-Arkansas into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...MO/AR to the OH/TN Valleys... Phasing of multiple shortwave impulses will support amplification of an upper trough, mainly on Sunday night, as it progresses from the High Plains to the Great Lakes. This will induce deepening of a surface cyclone from the Lower MO Valley towards Lake Huron. Attendant cold front will accelerate Sunday night as it quickly sweeps east into the Upper OH Valley and south into the northwest Gulf by 12Z Monday. Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are most likely on Sunday morning across parts of the Mid-MS Valley to the southern Great Lakes within a strengthening low-level warm conveyor. It is plausible that a few updrafts might weakly rotate, but meager buoyancy atop the stable surface and cluster convective mode appears supportive of only small hail. Primary forecast challenge is the degree of surface-based destabilization by Sunday afternoon, which will largely influence tornado and severe thunderstorm wind potential. Latest guidance remains split into two paths. This evening's RRFS/RAP/HRRR/HRW-ARW suggest that a plume of meager buoyancy with MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg should become established ahead of a cold front across the Ozarks to a portion of the Mid-MS Valley near the surface cyclone by afternoon. Meanwhile the NAM and HRW-NSSL indicate little to no surface-based buoyancy in the warm-moist sector along the front. Guidance consensus does suggest at least a low-topped, thin QLCS should become established along the front from IL/IN towards AR by early evening. The progressive nature of the front along with the paucity of surface-based instability downstream renders large uncertainty in whether lightning-producing convection will be maintained Sunday night along the front. However, kinematic fields will become increasingly impressive, with strong gusts likely accompanying low-topped convection along the front. CAM consensus though is for convection to wane early morning Monday as instability remains negligible. As such, have maintained the prior level 1-MRGL risk for wind, with a subset of low tornado probabilities from MO to IN. ..Grams.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MO/AR TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability severe thunderstorm threat is forecast from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from Missouri-Arkansas into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...MO/AR to the OH/TN Valleys... Phasing of multiple shortwave impulses will support amplification of an upper trough, mainly on Sunday night, as it progresses from the High Plains to the Great Lakes. This will induce deepening of a surface cyclone from the Lower MO Valley towards Lake Huron. Attendant cold front will accelerate Sunday night as it quickly sweeps east into the Upper OH Valley and south into the northwest Gulf by 12Z Monday. Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are most likely on Sunday morning across parts of the Mid-MS Valley to the southern Great Lakes within a strengthening low-level warm conveyor. It is plausible that a few updrafts might weakly rotate, but meager buoyancy atop the stable surface and cluster convective mode appears supportive of only small hail. Primary forecast challenge is the degree of surface-based destabilization by Sunday afternoon, which will largely influence tornado and severe thunderstorm wind potential. Latest guidance remains split into two paths. This evening's RRFS/RAP/HRRR/HRW-ARW suggest that a plume of meager buoyancy with MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg should become established ahead of a cold front across the Ozarks to a portion of the Mid-MS Valley near the surface cyclone by afternoon. Meanwhile the NAM and HRW-NSSL indicate little to no surface-based buoyancy in the warm-moist sector along the front. Guidance consensus does suggest at least a low-topped, thin QLCS should become established along the front from IL/IN towards AR by early evening. The progressive nature of the front along with the paucity of surface-based instability downstream renders large uncertainty in whether lightning-producing convection will be maintained Sunday night along the front. However, kinematic fields will become increasingly impressive, with strong gusts likely accompanying low-topped convection along the front. CAM consensus though is for convection to wane early morning Monday as instability remains negligible. As such, have maintained the prior level 1-MRGL risk for wind, with a subset of low tornado probabilities from MO to IN. ..Grams.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough over the central/northern High Plains will shift east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region throughout the day. At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from the central Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. In its wake, a cold front will sweep across much of the central CONUS, replacing near record warmth with more seasonal temperatures. Model guidance suggests there could be a window of up to a few hours supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions associated with the pre/post cold front passage, mainly across portions of the southern High Plains. Pre-frontal residual dry air and diurnally driven winds should be present ahead of the front by early afternoon. Then, temperatures should remain above the minimum thresholds behind the front for another 2-3 hours amid gusty northwest winds despite rising RH values. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been introduced for a small portion of West Texas and far southeast New Mexico, confined to areas where fuels appear most receptive. The frontal passage may at least temporarily exacerbate any ongoing fires across the region as well. ..Karstens.. 12/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough over the central/northern High Plains will shift east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region throughout the day. At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from the central Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. In its wake, a cold front will sweep across much of the central CONUS, replacing near record warmth with more seasonal temperatures. Model guidance suggests there could be a window of up to a few hours supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions associated with the pre/post cold front passage, mainly across portions of the southern High Plains. Pre-frontal residual dry air and diurnally driven winds should be present ahead of the front by early afternoon. Then, temperatures should remain above the minimum thresholds behind the front for another 2-3 hours amid gusty northwest winds despite rising RH values. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been introduced for a small portion of West Texas and far southeast New Mexico, confined to areas where fuels appear most receptive. The frontal passage may at least temporarily exacerbate any ongoing fires across the region as well. ..Karstens.. 12/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough over the central/northern High Plains will shift east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region throughout the day. At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from the central Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. In its wake, a cold front will sweep across much of the central CONUS, replacing near record warmth with more seasonal temperatures. Model guidance suggests there could be a window of up to a few hours supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions associated with the pre/post cold front passage, mainly across portions of the southern High Plains. Pre-frontal residual dry air and diurnally driven winds should be present ahead of the front by early afternoon. Then, temperatures should remain above the minimum thresholds behind the front for another 2-3 hours amid gusty northwest winds despite rising RH values. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been introduced for a small portion of West Texas and far southeast New Mexico, confined to areas where fuels appear most receptive. The frontal passage may at least temporarily exacerbate any ongoing fires across the region as well. ..Karstens.. 12/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more