SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
Some dry, downslope westerly winds are possible across portions of
northeastern Colorado during the day on Saturday ahead of a surface
cold front. Given the receptive fuels in the area, this may lead to
some brief Elevated fire weather risk during the afternoon. However,
uncertainty on the degree to which mid- and upper-level cloud cover
will impact mixing, and therefore the RH and wind strength, preclude
adding any highlights at this time. Otherwise, the previous forecast
remains largely on track with only minor adjustments made to the
Elevated highlights over the Texas Panhandle.
..Supinie.. 12/26/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge will remain in place along with an embedded
speed max across the central/southern Plains. The combination of lee
troughing and mixing should allow for sustained winds of 15-20 mph
to develop during the afternoon across the OK/TX Panhandles and
vicinity. Despite somewhat marginal RH values, perhaps approaching
the low to mid 20s, persistent dry conditions have led to
dry/receptive fuels, which will promote a few hours of Elevated
fire-weather conditions for this region.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken as
broader troughing over the West begins to move eastward. A
positive-tilt lead shortwave will move from the central Rockies over
the Plains, into the upper OH Valley Saturday and Saturday night.
Lift from this feature will deepen a surface low over the MO Valley
allowing for some return moisture and an increase in low-level warm
advection Saturday night. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop and
support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the trough from eastern
KS/OK into the upper OH Valley. Severe potential appears limited
owing to MUCAPE generally below 500 J/kg and the potential for any
stronger storms to mainly exist beyond 12z Sunday (Day 3).
..Lyons.. 12/26/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken as
broader troughing over the West begins to move eastward. A
positive-tilt lead shortwave will move from the central Rockies over
the Plains, into the upper OH Valley Saturday and Saturday night.
Lift from this feature will deepen a surface low over the MO Valley
allowing for some return moisture and an increase in low-level warm
advection Saturday night. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop and
support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the trough from eastern
KS/OK into the upper OH Valley. Severe potential appears limited
owing to MUCAPE generally below 500 J/kg and the potential for any
stronger storms to mainly exist beyond 12z Sunday (Day 3).
..Lyons.. 12/26/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 261700Z - 271200Z
Minor adjustments to the outlook were made based on a southwestward
trend in the morning guidance with respect to the corridor of
strongest westerly winds across portions of the Texas Panhandle and
northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track.
..Supinie.. 12/26/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will remain
quasi-stationary throughout the day, with an embedded speed max
traversing the ridge from the Southwest into the Central Plains.
Diurnal heating/mixing will allow this enhanced flow aloft to mix
toward the surface, resulting in sustained westerly winds near 15
mph across portions of the southern High Plains. Additionally,
downslope westerly winds near 15-20 mph should develop along the lee
of the Rockies, extending into portions of central Colorado during
the afternoon. Afternoon RH values across these regions should fall
into the lower teens amid dry/receptive fuels, promoting Elevated
fire-weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 261700Z - 271200Z
Minor adjustments to the outlook were made based on a southwestward
trend in the morning guidance with respect to the corridor of
strongest westerly winds across portions of the Texas Panhandle and
northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track.
..Supinie.. 12/26/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will remain
quasi-stationary throughout the day, with an embedded speed max
traversing the ridge from the Southwest into the Central Plains.
Diurnal heating/mixing will allow this enhanced flow aloft to mix
toward the surface, resulting in sustained westerly winds near 15
mph across portions of the southern High Plains. Additionally,
downslope westerly winds near 15-20 mph should develop along the lee
of the Rockies, extending into portions of central Colorado during
the afternoon. Afternoon RH values across these regions should fall
into the lower teens amid dry/receptive fuels, promoting Elevated
fire-weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will continue to progress eastward over the western
CONUS today. With cool temperatures at mid levels supporting weak
MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of CA into the
Great Basin and northern Rockies through the period as large-scale
ascent associated with the upper trough spreads inland. Mid-level
flow and related deep-layer shear should remain strong enough to
support some updraft organization across these areas, but limited
low-level moisture, cool surface temperatures, and overall weak
instability will likely hinder a meaningful severe threat from
materializing today. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes may occur
with elevated convection in a strong low-level warm advection regime
over portions of the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and southern
NY as a mid-level shortwave trough advances east-southeastward
across these areas.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/26/2025
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will continue to progress eastward over the western
CONUS today. With cool temperatures at mid levels supporting weak
MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of CA into the
Great Basin and northern Rockies through the period as large-scale
ascent associated with the upper trough spreads inland. Mid-level
flow and related deep-layer shear should remain strong enough to
support some updraft organization across these areas, but limited
low-level moisture, cool surface temperatures, and overall weak
instability will likely hinder a meaningful severe threat from
materializing today. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes may occur
with elevated convection in a strong low-level warm advection regime
over portions of the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and southern
NY as a mid-level shortwave trough advances east-southeastward
across these areas.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/26/2025
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MD 2273 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 2273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Lower Michigan
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 261040Z - 261645Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain will increase in intensity and coverage
while spreading eastward across parts of central and southern Lower
Michigan during the 12-16Z time frame.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar data shows a swath of mixed
precipitation spreading eastward into Lower MI -- where surface
pressure is falling rapidly (-4 to -5 mb in the last two hours over
west-central Lower MI). This activity is focused ahead of an
eastward-advancing shortwave trough and within a broad zone of
low-level warm advection. As the trough continues eastward this
morning and gains some amplitude, deep-layer forcing for ascent will
strengthen while focusing over Lower MI. As a result, precipitation
will increase in both intensity and coverage as the low/mid-levels
saturate amid the strengthening ascent. Additionally, steepening
midlevel lapse rates should yield weak elevated buoyancy and a
potential convective enhancement to precipitation rates.
As low-level warm advection strengthens, a substantial warm nose
centered around 850 mb will favor complete melting of descending
hydrometeors before re-freezing at the surface. The strong lift
(with potential convective enhancement) and aforementioned thermal
profile will contribute to freezing rain rates upwards of 0.05
inches per hour (locally higher under the more robust convectively
enhanced cores). The onset of the heavier rates is expected between
12-16Z, but should persist beyond that period while spreading
eastward across southeastern Lower MI.
..Weinman.. 12/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 42448488 42888549 43378619 43738637 43958622 44168555
44138477 43868383 43478256 43038230 42188279 41918342
42018398 42448488
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0620 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough
over the Pacific Northwest coast and eastern Pacific. This
positive-tilt trough will shift eastward to the northern Rockies and
Sierra Nevada by early Saturday morning. Concurrently, a flattened
mid to upper-level ridge over the Great Plains will move into the MS
Valley. Plume of subtropical moisture over the eastern Pacific will
continue to advect northeast into portions of the Interior West.
Showers and widely spaced, occasional thunderstorms are likely today
across CA into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Scant
instability will likely preclude strong thunderstorm development
with this activity. Farther east, a few thunderstorms are possible
from the Great Lakes east-southeast into the northern Mid-Atlantic
states in advance of a mid-level shortwave trough forecast to move
east today.
..Smith/Weinman.. 12/26/2025
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0620 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough
over the Pacific Northwest coast and eastern Pacific. This
positive-tilt trough will shift eastward to the northern Rockies and
Sierra Nevada by early Saturday morning. Concurrently, a flattened
mid to upper-level ridge over the Great Plains will move into the MS
Valley. Plume of subtropical moisture over the eastern Pacific will
continue to advect northeast into portions of the Interior West.
Showers and widely spaced, occasional thunderstorms are likely today
across CA into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Scant
instability will likely preclude strong thunderstorm development
with this activity. Farther east, a few thunderstorms are possible
from the Great Lakes east-southeast into the northern Mid-Atlantic
states in advance of a mid-level shortwave trough forecast to move
east today.
..Smith/Weinman.. 12/26/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
D4/Monday will feature conditionally favorable strong low to
mid-level flow along/ahead of a cold front moving east across the
Southeast. The intense eastern Great Lakes/southeast ON cyclone
should occlude as a secondary cyclone forms along coastal ME into
the Canadian Maritimes. Guidance is fairly consistent for this time
frame with indications of minimal instability along the trailing
portion of the cold front, as well as diminishing large-scale
ascent/convective signal through the day. Severe thunderstorm wind
probabilities appear at or below 5 percent.
The continental airmass spreading across the Gulf in the wake of the
frontal passage should yield minimal severe potential mid-week.
Towards late week, return flow will support airmass modification
along the western Gulf Coast. The EC-AIFS hints at a low-amplitude
shortwave impulse in the D8/Friday time frame, which could support a
return to non-negligible severe potential.
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MD 2272 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 2272
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Areas affected...Northern/Central California Coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260011Z - 260215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible with convection this evening.
DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery suggests a midlevel vort lobe
is located about 125mi southwest of EKA, lifting northeast toward
the northern CA coast. Radar data supports this with an arcing band
of convection, and embedded lightning, extending from the north side
of this vort, arcing southeast to about 100mi west of MRY. Strong
midlevel jet will translate inland over the next several hours in
association with this band of convection. While buoyancy is not
particularly strong, SBCAPE is on the order of 200-300 J/kg, and
wind profiles favor organized updrafts. Current thinking is gusty
winds may accompany this strongly forced band of convection as it
surges inland this evening; however, current thinking is a severe
thunderstorm watch is unlikely.
..Darrow/Hart.. 12/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR...EKA...
LAT...LON 35302183 40082465 40302316 35812044 35302183
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MUCH OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for isolated severe thunderstorms will persist this evening
and into tonight across much of the California Coast and portions of
the Central and Northern Valleys.
...Coastal CA into the Central and Northern Valleys...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist this evening from the
Sacramento Valley toward the central coastline, with another area
over southern CA. Areas of heating have led to a few stronger cells
around the Sacramento area, with indications of marginal hail. To
the west, another frontal band of convection will continue to
approach much of the central coastal counties. The 00Z OAK sounding
shows steep lapse rates and strong shear profiles, which may favor
both damaging gusts or embedded areas of rotation as leading cells
and/or the frontal band approach later this evening. As such, will
maintain the Marginal Risk.
For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2272.
..Jewell.. 12/26/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MUCH OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for isolated severe thunderstorms will persist this evening
and into tonight across much of the California Coast and portions of
the Central and Northern Valleys.
...Coastal CA into the Central and Northern Valleys...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist this evening from the
Sacramento Valley toward the central coastline, with another area
over southern CA. Areas of heating have led to a few stronger cells
around the Sacramento area, with indications of marginal hail. To
the west, another frontal band of convection will continue to
approach much of the central coastal counties. The 00Z OAK sounding
shows steep lapse rates and strong shear profiles, which may favor
both damaging gusts or embedded areas of rotation as leading cells
and/or the frontal band approach later this evening. As such, will
maintain the Marginal Risk.
For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2272.
..Jewell.. 12/26/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level jet moving into the Southwest along with lee troughing
across the Central Plains will support dry downslope flow and
potential fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High
Plains Day 3/Saturday. A positively tilted upper trough should move
and deepen into the eastern U.S. through early next week. A
corresponding strong cold front will erode the recent abnormally
warm temperatures across much of the central and eastern CONUS
through Day 6/Tuesday. Dry, post-frontal flow could support an
increased fire weather threat mainly across the Southern Plains
where minimal rainfall is expected. An evolving upper-level ridge
should bring warming temperatures and dry conditions to the West
through midweek.
...Day 3/Saturday - Southern High Plains...
Fire weather threat is likely to remain across portions of the TX/OK
Panhandles and adjacent areas owing to persistent westerly flow
aloft and breezy west-southwest winds in response to lee troughing
across the Central Plains. Some uncertainty exists regarding
magnitude of surface drying with additional cloud cover hindering
boundary layer mixing. However, with multiple preceding days of
abnormally warm temperatures and multi-week rainfall deficits, fuels
could remain receptive to spread within the breezy west-southwest
winds despite limited RH reductions. Thus, a 40 percent critical
area remains for the TX/OK Panhandles into southeast CO.
..Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday...
Primary effective fire weather feature will be a cold front sweeping
across much of the central/eastern CONUS early next week beginning
Day 4/Sunday. Latest model guidance still depicts some inhibiting
factors that could reduce fire weather impacts. Expansive cloud
cover and some precipitation in addition to rapidly falling
temperatures within post frontal flow could limit a more significant
fire weather threat across much of the South and Southeast. Less
expected rainfall across the Southern Plains could support pockets
of drier fuels but uncertainty in rainfall distribution precludes
introduction of critical probabilities for Sunday and Monday.
..Williams.. 12/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level jet moving into the Southwest along with lee troughing
across the Central Plains will support dry downslope flow and
potential fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High
Plains Day 3/Saturday. A positively tilted upper trough should move
and deepen into the eastern U.S. through early next week. A
corresponding strong cold front will erode the recent abnormally
warm temperatures across much of the central and eastern CONUS
through Day 6/Tuesday. Dry, post-frontal flow could support an
increased fire weather threat mainly across the Southern Plains
where minimal rainfall is expected. An evolving upper-level ridge
should bring warming temperatures and dry conditions to the West
through midweek.
...Day 3/Saturday - Southern High Plains...
Fire weather threat is likely to remain across portions of the TX/OK
Panhandles and adjacent areas owing to persistent westerly flow
aloft and breezy west-southwest winds in response to lee troughing
across the Central Plains. Some uncertainty exists regarding
magnitude of surface drying with additional cloud cover hindering
boundary layer mixing. However, with multiple preceding days of
abnormally warm temperatures and multi-week rainfall deficits, fuels
could remain receptive to spread within the breezy west-southwest
winds despite limited RH reductions. Thus, a 40 percent critical
area remains for the TX/OK Panhandles into southeast CO.
..Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday...
Primary effective fire weather feature will be a cold front sweeping
across much of the central/eastern CONUS early next week beginning
Day 4/Sunday. Latest model guidance still depicts some inhibiting
factors that could reduce fire weather impacts. Expansive cloud
cover and some precipitation in addition to rapidly falling
temperatures within post frontal flow could limit a more significant
fire weather threat across much of the South and Southeast. Less
expected rainfall across the Southern Plains could support pockets
of drier fuels but uncertainty in rainfall distribution precludes
introduction of critical probabilities for Sunday and Monday.
..Williams.. 12/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level jet moving into the Southwest along with lee troughing
across the Central Plains will support dry downslope flow and
potential fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High
Plains Day 3/Saturday. A positively tilted upper trough should move
and deepen into the eastern U.S. through early next week. A
corresponding strong cold front will erode the recent abnormally
warm temperatures across much of the central and eastern CONUS
through Day 6/Tuesday. Dry, post-frontal flow could support an
increased fire weather threat mainly across the Southern Plains
where minimal rainfall is expected. An evolving upper-level ridge
should bring warming temperatures and dry conditions to the West
through midweek.
...Day 3/Saturday - Southern High Plains...
Fire weather threat is likely to remain across portions of the TX/OK
Panhandles and adjacent areas owing to persistent westerly flow
aloft and breezy west-southwest winds in response to lee troughing
across the Central Plains. Some uncertainty exists regarding
magnitude of surface drying with additional cloud cover hindering
boundary layer mixing. However, with multiple preceding days of
abnormally warm temperatures and multi-week rainfall deficits, fuels
could remain receptive to spread within the breezy west-southwest
winds despite limited RH reductions. Thus, a 40 percent critical
area remains for the TX/OK Panhandles into southeast CO.
..Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday...
Primary effective fire weather feature will be a cold front sweeping
across much of the central/eastern CONUS early next week beginning
Day 4/Sunday. Latest model guidance still depicts some inhibiting
factors that could reduce fire weather impacts. Expansive cloud
cover and some precipitation in addition to rapidly falling
temperatures within post frontal flow could limit a more significant
fire weather threat across much of the South and Southeast. Less
expected rainfall across the Southern Plains could support pockets
of drier fuels but uncertainty in rainfall distribution precludes
introduction of critical probabilities for Sunday and Monday.
..Williams.. 12/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe gusts/localized wind damage and perhaps
a brief tornado will be possible today into this evening along much
of the California Coast and portions of the Central Valley.
...20z Update...
The previous outlook reasoning remains on track, and no changes were
made with this update.
A few thunderstorms had developed over the Sacramento Valley since
18z, where partial clearing was noted and weak buoyancy (200-300
J/kg) was present. Offshore, an increase in lightning was noted as
the next upstream vorticity maximum moves towards the CA Coast.
Although buoyancy will remain weak, stronger low/mid-level flow will
become re-established later this afternoon/evening and will support
an isolated risk of strong/severe wind gusts with a few
stronger/sustained convective elements, and low-level hodographs
will be sufficiently curved to conditionally support a brief
tornado.
..Bunting.. 12/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025/
...California...
Recent satellite imagery shows a mid/upper-level low over the
eastern Pacific and a negative-tilt shortwave trough moving
northward along the northern CA and OR Coast. An upstream mid-level
jet and associated vorticity maximum will move through the base of
the eastern Pacific upper low/trough and approach the San Francisco
Bay and northern CA vicinity this evening.
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
isolated severe/damaging winds will remain possible with convection
today into this evening. Weak instability is forecast to persist
across much of coastal CA into the Central Valley, with cool surface
temperatures, saturated profiles, and modest lapse rates aloft
(reference the 12Z OAK sounding) limiting the development of greater
MUCAPE. Still, a favorable kinematic environment with enhanced
west-southwesterly mid/upper-level flow will conditionally support
occasional strong to severe convection, contingent on sufficiently
deep/sustained updraft development.
Low-level hodographs are forecast to remain enlarged enough to yield
a low risk for a brief tornado across much of the Marginal Risk
area. Consensus of latest model guidance indicates low/mid-level
flow will weaken somewhat this afternoon before gradually
re-intensifying this evening as the next embedded shortwave trough
and associated mid-level jet overspread coastal northern/central CA.
A mix of linear bands and cellular convective structures may
continue to pose an intermittent risk for isolated damaging gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado into this evening/tonight, before the
severe threat gradually diminishes towards 12Z early Friday morning.
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