Storm Prediction Center

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated risk for severe gusts/localized wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible today into this evening along much of the California Coast and portions of the Central Valley. ...20z Update... The previous outlook reasoning remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. A few thunderstorms had developed over the Sacramento Valley since 18z, where partial clearing was noted and weak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg) was present. Offshore, an increase in lightning was noted as the next upstream vorticity maximum moves towards the CA Coast. Although buoyancy will remain weak, stronger low/mid-level flow will become re-established later this afternoon/evening and will support an isolated risk of strong/severe wind gusts with a few stronger/sustained convective elements, and low-level hodographs will be sufficiently curved to conditionally support a brief tornado. ..Bunting.. 12/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025/ ...California... Recent satellite imagery shows a mid/upper-level low over the eastern Pacific and a negative-tilt shortwave trough moving northward along the northern CA and OR Coast. An upstream mid-level jet and associated vorticity maximum will move through the base of the eastern Pacific upper low/trough and approach the San Francisco Bay and northern CA vicinity this evening. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly isolated severe/damaging winds will remain possible with convection today into this evening. Weak instability is forecast to persist across much of coastal CA into the Central Valley, with cool surface temperatures, saturated profiles, and modest lapse rates aloft (reference the 12Z OAK sounding) limiting the development of greater MUCAPE. Still, a favorable kinematic environment with enhanced west-southwesterly mid/upper-level flow will conditionally support occasional strong to severe convection, contingent on sufficiently deep/sustained updraft development. Low-level hodographs are forecast to remain enlarged enough to yield a low risk for a brief tornado across much of the Marginal Risk area. Consensus of latest model guidance indicates low/mid-level flow will weaken somewhat this afternoon before gradually re-intensifying this evening as the next embedded shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet overspread coastal northern/central CA. A mix of linear bands and cellular convective structures may continue to pose an intermittent risk for isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado into this evening/tonight, before the severe threat gradually diminishes towards 12Z early Friday morning. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Colorado Front Range... Deep layer westerly flow should support modest downslope winds of 15-20 mph (locally 20-30 mph in favored gaps) across the CO Front Range Friday. Relative humidity dropping into the 10-15% range, dry fuels and the breezy west winds should bring an elevated fire weather threat to the area Friday afternoon. However, additional upper-level cloud cover in the lee of the Rockies could inhibit boundary layer mixing and wind speeds across flatter terrain to a degree, confining stronger winds and overall fire weather threat closer to the Front Range. Elevated highlights were extended northward to cover this increased fire potential. ...Southern High Plains... A drier air mass should be in place across the southern High Plains for Friday, aided by a persistent downslope regime. A surface low progressing eastward into the Ohio River Valley will result in a lower surface pressure gradient magnitude across the southern Plains. Although slightly lower wind speeds are expected overall, sustained west-southwest winds of around 15 mph are likely across the TX/OK Panhandles and northeastern NM. These winds should align with minimum RH close to 15% and dry fuels to promote an elevated fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 12/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will gradually shunt eastward from the Plains to the Midwest on Friday as an upper trough impinges on the Rockies. At the surface, lee troughing will intensify over the Plains, leading to another day of at least modestly dry downslope flow along the High Plains. Similar to Day 1, Elevated highlights have been introduced for the Texas Panhandle and surrounding areas. Here, 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 20 percent RH, atop fuels that continue to cure given dry air and longer term lack of rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Colorado Front Range... Deep layer westerly flow should support modest downslope winds of 15-20 mph (locally 20-30 mph in favored gaps) across the CO Front Range Friday. Relative humidity dropping into the 10-15% range, dry fuels and the breezy west winds should bring an elevated fire weather threat to the area Friday afternoon. However, additional upper-level cloud cover in the lee of the Rockies could inhibit boundary layer mixing and wind speeds across flatter terrain to a degree, confining stronger winds and overall fire weather threat closer to the Front Range. Elevated highlights were extended northward to cover this increased fire potential. ...Southern High Plains... A drier air mass should be in place across the southern High Plains for Friday, aided by a persistent downslope regime. A surface low progressing eastward into the Ohio River Valley will result in a lower surface pressure gradient magnitude across the southern Plains. Although slightly lower wind speeds are expected overall, sustained west-southwest winds of around 15 mph are likely across the TX/OK Panhandles and northeastern NM. These winds should align with minimum RH close to 15% and dry fuels to promote an elevated fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 12/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will gradually shunt eastward from the Plains to the Midwest on Friday as an upper trough impinges on the Rockies. At the surface, lee troughing will intensify over the Plains, leading to another day of at least modestly dry downslope flow along the High Plains. Similar to Day 1, Elevated highlights have been introduced for the Texas Panhandle and surrounding areas. Here, 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 20 percent RH, atop fuels that continue to cure given dry air and longer term lack of rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to deamplify Saturday as a broad Pacific trough ejects over the central CONUS. A positive-tilt lead shortwave will move over the southern/central Plains and into the Midwest Saturday afternoon into early Sunday, while several other perturbations coalesce over the Rockies. A lee low and increasing low-level warm advection/moisture transport should allow for weak elevated destabilization overnight Saturday into early Sunday from the Plains States to the lower OH Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may develop along a stalled frontal zone over KS/OK, spreading east northeastward overnight. Additional storms may form along the lower to middle Texas coast. With only weak buoyancy for elevated thunderstorms and modest deep-layer shear overlap, severe potential appears negligible. ..Lyons.. 12/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to deamplify Saturday as a broad Pacific trough ejects over the central CONUS. A positive-tilt lead shortwave will move over the southern/central Plains and into the Midwest Saturday afternoon into early Sunday, while several other perturbations coalesce over the Rockies. A lee low and increasing low-level warm advection/moisture transport should allow for weak elevated destabilization overnight Saturday into early Sunday from the Plains States to the lower OH Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may develop along a stalled frontal zone over KS/OK, spreading east northeastward overnight. Additional storms may form along the lower to middle Texas coast. With only weak buoyancy for elevated thunderstorms and modest deep-layer shear overlap, severe potential appears negligible. ..Lyons.. 12/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ...Synopsis... A persistent mid-level ridge will begin to weaken as it moves across the central U.S. Friday. At the same time, a broad trough over the West Coast will finally move onshore and into the western states. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day across coastal California eastward into the Great Basin/Intermountain West, as moisture associated with the trough streams inland. Weak buoyancy and only minimal surface heating from remnant cloud cover and multiple days of precipitation should greatly limit severe potential. ...Eastern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic... A secondary trough on the eastern periphery of the ridge will intensify as it moves out of the Great Lakes and into the Northeastern US late Friday into early Saturday. A modest surface low and low-level warm advection will allow for weak elevated destabilization and isolated storms over parts of eastern MI and OH, into the central Appalachians Friday evening. Buoyancy will become increasingly scant farther east into the Mid Atlantic. While a few storms remain possible into early Saturday, peak MUCAPE below 500 J/kg suggests severe potential is very low. ..Lyons.. 12/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ...Synopsis... A persistent mid-level ridge will begin to weaken as it moves across the central U.S. Friday. At the same time, a broad trough over the West Coast will finally move onshore and into the western states. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day across coastal California eastward into the Great Basin/Intermountain West, as moisture associated with the trough streams inland. Weak buoyancy and only minimal surface heating from remnant cloud cover and multiple days of precipitation should greatly limit severe potential. ...Eastern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic... A secondary trough on the eastern periphery of the ridge will intensify as it moves out of the Great Lakes and into the Northeastern US late Friday into early Saturday. A modest surface low and low-level warm advection will allow for weak elevated destabilization and isolated storms over parts of eastern MI and OH, into the central Appalachians Friday evening. Buoyancy will become increasingly scant farther east into the Mid Atlantic. While a few storms remain possible into early Saturday, peak MUCAPE below 500 J/kg suggests severe potential is very low. ..Lyons.. 12/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z Increasing westerly flow aloft entering the central U.S. along with a deepening lee trough extending southward into the Southern Plains will promote enhanced downslope winds across the portions of the central and southern High Plains through this afternoon. Increased but still diffuse boundary layer moisture ushered in from the Pacific within deep-layer southwest flow will limit RH reductions to 20-25% across the TX Panhandle and vicinity. However, west-southwest winds of 15 mph (locally 20 mph) amid dry fuels and abnormally warm temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s should still support elevated fire weather conditions for the area through the afternoon. Only minor adjustments were made to existing Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 12/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will prevail over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough over the Interior West de-amplifies, with embedded perturbations impinging on the Rockies today. This will support the eastward progression of a surface low over the northern Plains, which in turn will lead to dry downslope flow along the lee of the Rockies. By afternoon widespread 10-15 mph sustained westerly surface winds will generally coincide with 15-25 percent RH. Elevated highlights are in place across portions of the Texas Panhandle and immediate surrounding areas, where the best overlap of 15+ mph winds, 15-20 percent RH, and dry fuels should occur. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z Increasing westerly flow aloft entering the central U.S. along with a deepening lee trough extending southward into the Southern Plains will promote enhanced downslope winds across the portions of the central and southern High Plains through this afternoon. Increased but still diffuse boundary layer moisture ushered in from the Pacific within deep-layer southwest flow will limit RH reductions to 20-25% across the TX Panhandle and vicinity. However, west-southwest winds of 15 mph (locally 20 mph) amid dry fuels and abnormally warm temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s should still support elevated fire weather conditions for the area through the afternoon. Only minor adjustments were made to existing Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 12/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will prevail over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough over the Interior West de-amplifies, with embedded perturbations impinging on the Rockies today. This will support the eastward progression of a surface low over the northern Plains, which in turn will lead to dry downslope flow along the lee of the Rockies. By afternoon widespread 10-15 mph sustained westerly surface winds will generally coincide with 15-25 percent RH. Elevated highlights are in place across portions of the Texas Panhandle and immediate surrounding areas, where the best overlap of 15+ mph winds, 15-20 percent RH, and dry fuels should occur. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated risk for severe gusts/localized wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible today into this evening along much of the California Coast and portions of the Central Valley. ...California... Recent satellite imagery shows a mid/upper-level low over the eastern Pacific and a negative-tilt shortwave trough moving northward along the northern CA and OR Coast. An upstream mid-level jet and associated vorticity maximum will move through the base of the eastern Pacific upper low/trough and approach the San Francisco Bay and northern CA vicinity this evening. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly isolated severe/damaging winds will remain possible with convection today into this evening. Weak instability is forecast to persist across much of coastal CA into the Central Valley, with cool surface temperatures, saturated profiles, and modest lapse rates aloft (reference the 12Z OAK sounding) limiting the development of greater MUCAPE. Still, a favorable kinematic environment with enhanced west-southwesterly mid/upper-level flow will conditionally support occasional strong to severe convection, contingent on sufficiently deep/sustained updraft development. Low-level hodographs are forecast to remain enlarged enough to yield a low risk for a brief tornado across much of the Marginal Risk area. Consensus of latest model guidance indicates low/mid-level flow will weaken somewhat this afternoon before gradually re-intensifying this evening as the next embedded shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet overspread coastal northern/central CA. A mix of linear bands and cellular convective structures may continue to pose an intermittent risk for isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado into this evening/tonight, before the severe threat gradually diminishes towards 12Z early Friday morning. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 12/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated risk for severe gusts/localized wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible today into this evening along much of the California Coast and portions of the Central Valley. ...California... Recent satellite imagery shows a mid/upper-level low over the eastern Pacific and a negative-tilt shortwave trough moving northward along the northern CA and OR Coast. An upstream mid-level jet and associated vorticity maximum will move through the base of the eastern Pacific upper low/trough and approach the San Francisco Bay and northern CA vicinity this evening. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly isolated severe/damaging winds will remain possible with convection today into this evening. Weak instability is forecast to persist across much of coastal CA into the Central Valley, with cool surface temperatures, saturated profiles, and modest lapse rates aloft (reference the 12Z OAK sounding) limiting the development of greater MUCAPE. Still, a favorable kinematic environment with enhanced west-southwesterly mid/upper-level flow will conditionally support occasional strong to severe convection, contingent on sufficiently deep/sustained updraft development. Low-level hodographs are forecast to remain enlarged enough to yield a low risk for a brief tornado across much of the Marginal Risk area. Consensus of latest model guidance indicates low/mid-level flow will weaken somewhat this afternoon before gradually re-intensifying this evening as the next embedded shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet overspread coastal northern/central CA. A mix of linear bands and cellular convective structures may continue to pose an intermittent risk for isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado into this evening/tonight, before the severe threat gradually diminishes towards 12Z early Friday morning. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 12/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated risk for severe gusts and localized wind damage, and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible today along much of the California Coast and portions of the Central Valley. ... California ... Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a mid-level low over the eastern Pacific and a negative-tilt shortwave trough moving northward along the northern CA and OR coast. An upstream mid-level speed max and associated vorticity max will move cyclonically through the base of the eastern Pacific low/trough and approach San Francisco Bay and northern CA this evening and subsequently move into eastern OR by early Friday morning. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms mainly capable of a severe-wind hazard will potentially continue on an isolated basis this morning from the Central Valley/central coast and perhaps include portions of southern CA. The low CAPE/high shear environment will potentially support strong/locally severe convection contingent on sufficient updraft development. Forecast low-level hodographs will remain sufficiently enlarged to yield a low risk for a brief tornado across much of the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) area. By this afternoon, model guidance indicates low-level flow will weaken before re-intensifying towards evening in association with the arrival of the next speed max. A mix of linear bands and cellular convective structures may continue to pose an intermittent risk for isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado into tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/25/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal. From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal. From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas. Read more

MD 2270 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2270 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the North Coast of California Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250746Z - 251015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The risk for damaging convective gusts and possibly a brief tornado is increasing, with the greatest threat expected between 09-12Z. DISCUSSION...As of 0730Z, radar data from KMUX shows an expansive, strongly forced band of stratiform rain with gradually deepening/intensifying convective elements. As a robust negative-tilt shortwave trough and accompanying jet continue toward the coast, this activity will spread east-northeastward into the North Coast of California during the 09-12Z time frame. Despite limited buoyancy, the strong forcing for ascent and strengthening deep-layer flow/shear should favor a modest uptick in convective organization/intensity as it approaches the coast. Given the strongly forced nature and 50+ kt flow in the lowest 1 km AGL, the primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. However, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, aided by upwards of 200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH and at least neutral boundary-layer static stability along the immediate coastal areas. ..Weinman/Smith.. 12/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...STO...MTR...EKA... LAT...LON 36862224 37742283 38562351 39312403 39912430 40352457 40682447 40782431 40702392 40392355 40002312 39372247 38552192 37162146 36682149 36502170 36432200 36862224 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. on Saturday or Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Saturday, as a trough moves through the Intermountain West. Thunderstorms will be possible, mainly Saturday night within anticyclonic southwesterly mid-level flow from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. Additional storms may form along the lower to middle Texas coast. ..Broyles.. 12/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. on Saturday or Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Saturday, as a trough moves through the Intermountain West. Thunderstorms will be possible, mainly Saturday night within anticyclonic southwesterly mid-level flow from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. Additional storms may form along the lower to middle Texas coast. ..Broyles.. 12/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will move across the central U.S. on Friday, as a trough moves into the western states. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day from near the trough in central California eastward into southwest Nevada. Additional thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon across parts of the Intermountain West as surface temperatures warm. A third area with thunderstorm potential will develop in parts of the central Appalachians as a shortwave trough moves southeastward across the region. No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Friday or Friday night. ..Broyles.. 12/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will move across the central U.S. on Friday, as a trough moves into the western states. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day from near the trough in central California eastward into southwest Nevada. Additional thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon across parts of the Intermountain West as surface temperatures warm. A third area with thunderstorm potential will develop in parts of the central Appalachians as a shortwave trough moves southeastward across the region. No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Friday or Friday night. ..Broyles.. 12/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will gradually shunt eastward from the Plains to the Midwest on Friday as an upper trough impinges on the Rockies. At the surface, lee troughing will intensify over the Plains, leading to another day of at least modestly dry downslope flow along the High Plains. Similar to Day 1, Elevated highlights have been introduced for the Texas Panhandle and surrounding areas. Here, 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 20 percent RH, atop fuels that continue to cure given dry air and longer term lack of rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more