Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... An expansive and unseasonably strong upper ridge will dominate the mid and upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS Day2/Tuesday. As the ridge intensifies, troughing on the flanks of the ridge will also strengthen. The western most trough, and a mid-level shortwave trough embedded within it will likely reach the central and northern CA coastal areas late Tuesday night. Strong ascent and flow aloft will support a deepening surface low which will support onshore flow and some thunderstorm potential over much of coastal CA/OR. ...West Coast... As the upper trough deepens over the West Coast, strong onshore flow will develop and support inland transport of low-level moisture across much of coast and the CA central Valley. Cooling mid-level temperatures and strong ascent associated with the embedded shortwave will overspread this air mass contributing to weak destabilization late Tuesday through early Wednesday. Low-topped convection, capable of occasional lightning, is expected to increase in coverage overnight. While a stronger storm is possible, especially along and ahead of the surface cold front, the scant buoyancy and overnight timing suggest severe potential is very low. Elsewhere, moisture advection is likely over parts of the southern Plains and far south TX beneath the upper ridge as the surface reflection shifts eastward. Despite persistent southerly flow and increasing surface dewpoints, little to no ascent and warm mid-level temperatures should preclude thunderstorm development outside of far south TX. ..Lyons.. 12/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING... ...Colorado Front Range and Southeastern Wyoming... Current surface observations show westerly wind gusts already in the 35 to 45 mph range along the CO Front Range and adjacent foothills, northward into southeastern WY. Robust mid-level westerly flow along with daytime mixing and downslope drying will lead to critical fire weather conditions through the afternoon. West winds of 30-40 mph with localized gusts of 55-65 mph, relative humidity in the 15-20% range and dry fuels will promote a critical fire weather environment, where Critical highlights were added. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas Panhandle and Far West Texas... A broader but lower in magnitude downslope wind event is expected expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle through the afternoon. Sustained west-southwest winds of around 15 mph with relative humidity as low as 15% will align with increasingly dry fuels to support elevated fire weather conditions across this region. A more localized downslope wind threat exists farther south along the Sacramento/Guadalupe/Davis ranges where Elevated highlights have been extended. Winds approaching 20 mph just leeward of these ranges will align with low RH and moderately dry fuels to promote an elevated fire weather concern through the afternoon. ..Williams.. 12/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will continue to build over the CONUS through today, with lee troughing poised to increase across the Plains states. Some dry downslope flow is expected across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon hours. From the immediate lee of the Rockies across Colorado, to eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, multiple hours of overlapping 15-20 percent RH and 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds are likely. Elevated highlights have been maintained given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING... ...Colorado Front Range and Southeastern Wyoming... Current surface observations show westerly wind gusts already in the 35 to 45 mph range along the CO Front Range and adjacent foothills, northward into southeastern WY. Robust mid-level westerly flow along with daytime mixing and downslope drying will lead to critical fire weather conditions through the afternoon. West winds of 30-40 mph with localized gusts of 55-65 mph, relative humidity in the 15-20% range and dry fuels will promote a critical fire weather environment, where Critical highlights were added. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas Panhandle and Far West Texas... A broader but lower in magnitude downslope wind event is expected expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle through the afternoon. Sustained west-southwest winds of around 15 mph with relative humidity as low as 15% will align with increasingly dry fuels to support elevated fire weather conditions across this region. A more localized downslope wind threat exists farther south along the Sacramento/Guadalupe/Davis ranges where Elevated highlights have been extended. Winds approaching 20 mph just leeward of these ranges will align with low RH and moderately dry fuels to promote an elevated fire weather concern through the afternoon. ..Williams.. 12/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will continue to build over the CONUS through today, with lee troughing poised to increase across the Plains states. Some dry downslope flow is expected across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon hours. From the immediate lee of the Rockies across Colorado, to eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, multiple hours of overlapping 15-20 percent RH and 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds are likely. Elevated highlights have been maintained given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A pronounced midlevel shortwave trough and associated baroclinic zone will move across the WA coast later this afternoon. Low-midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy of sufficient depth (through -20 C at the equilibrium level) for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes with low-topped convection along and behind the front. Shallow, weakly rotating convection will be possible near the WA coast per the KLGX VWP/hodograph, but the threat for severe storms appears too limited to warrant an outlook area. Farther south, the potential for isolated lightning flashes will slowly wane through the day across the northern Sierra Nevada, where weak buoyancy rooted above the surface will likewise diminish. Otherwise, a broad subtropical ridge (with unusually high geopotential heights) covers the southern Plains/Gulf coast. An embedded/weak midlevel trough will rotate slowly north-northwestward around the periphery of the ridge, bringing weak ascent and an associated moisture plume into south TX. Per the observed deepening of the moist layer at BRO in the past 12 hours, pockets of surface heating/destabilization could support isolated thunderstorm development across south TX this afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 12/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... The next shortwave trough and associated cold front are expected to advance inland across British Columbia/coastal Washington by this evening. A related plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with low-topped convection. Elsewhere across the West, a few lightning flashes have been noted early this morning across the California Sierra, and this scenario may continue today within a moisture-rich plume with weak buoyancy. A weak mid-level disturbance over the western Gulf and coastal Mexico, along with a moist air mass (reference 12z Brownsville observed sounding) to the south of a slow-moving front, may allow for a few thunderstorms to develop into/across Deep South Texas. Similar to morning RAOB/WSR-88D VWP observations, forecast soundings suggest deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, such that any convection that evolves across this region should remain below severe levels. ..Guyer/Marsh.. 12/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... The next shortwave trough and associated cold front are expected to advance inland across British Columbia/coastal Washington by this evening. A related plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with low-topped convection. Elsewhere across the West, a few lightning flashes have been noted early this morning across the California Sierra, and this scenario may continue today within a moisture-rich plume with weak buoyancy. A weak mid-level disturbance over the western Gulf and coastal Mexico, along with a moist air mass (reference 12z Brownsville observed sounding) to the south of a slow-moving front, may allow for a few thunderstorms to develop into/across Deep South Texas. Similar to morning RAOB/WSR-88D VWP observations, forecast soundings suggest deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, such that any convection that evolves across this region should remain below severe levels. ..Guyer/Marsh.. 12/22/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-air pattern featuring a ridge over the central states will quickly transition to a more progressive flow regime towards early this weekend. Model guidance implies a split-flow regime potentially evolving with troughing over the Great Lakes towards the Sunday-Monday timeframe (D7-D8). Overall limited potential for organized severe seemingly exists for much of the extended period. Some indication for a moist sector evolving ahead of the amplifying Great Lakes' trough could yield some severe risk, but predictability is low and highly uncertain given model spread at this point in time. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern U.S. as a mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Surface lee troughing will continue across the central U.S., with gradual moisture return from the Gulf expected. A dry low-level airmass will continue to linger along the central and southern High Plains. However, surface wind fields over the western portions of the Plains will be weaker compared to Day 1, with no fire weather highlights introduced for this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 12/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will continue to build over the CONUS through today, with lee troughing poised to increase across the Plains states. Some dry downslope flow is expected across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon hours. From the immediate lee of the Rockies across Colorado, to eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, multiple hours of overlapping 15-20 percent RH and 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds are likely. Elevated highlights have been maintained given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 12/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...California... An upper trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast on Tuesday. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale trough will likely reach the central and northern CA coastal areas late Tuesday night. A surface low will develop and migrate northeast reaching the OR-CA border by early Wednesday morning. Flow will increase during the period as a 100-kt 500-mb jet impinges on the central coastal areas of CA. Yet, only scant instability is currently progged. This meager buoyancy will generally focus near the coast but sporadic pockets will probably develop farther inland over the central valleys late Tuesday night. Low-topped convective showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage coincident with increased forcing for ascent and instability. Given the dearth of buoyancy forecast, will preclude the introduction of low-severe probabilities. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the Lower 48. ..Smith.. 12/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Discussion... Midlevel short-wave trough, off the Pacific Northwest coast, is forecast to advance inland around 23/00z before deamplifying as it ejects into southwest Canada by the end of the period. Associated surface front will also progress inland around 23/00z, and cooling lower tropospheric profiles should lead to weak buoyancy along the WA/OR coast. Low-topped convection may generate a flash or two of lightning, but thunderstorms should otherwise remain quite sparse. Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough over northeast Mexico, lifting north in line with latest model guidance. Deep southeasterly flow across south TX will maintain moist profiles that should exhibit modest SBCAPE by late afternoon. Forecast soundings also suggest deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, and any convection that evolves across this region should remain below severe levels. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Discussion... Midlevel short-wave trough, off the Pacific Northwest coast, is forecast to advance inland around 23/00z before deamplifying as it ejects into southwest Canada by the end of the period. Associated surface front will also progress inland around 23/00z, and cooling lower tropospheric profiles should lead to weak buoyancy along the WA/OR coast. Low-topped convection may generate a flash or two of lightning, but thunderstorms should otherwise remain quite sparse. Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough over northeast Mexico, lifting north in line with latest model guidance. Deep southeasterly flow across south TX will maintain moist profiles that should exhibit modest SBCAPE by late afternoon. Forecast soundings also suggest deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, and any convection that evolves across this region should remain below severe levels. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Potential for lighting is negligible across most of the CONUS tonight. A few exceptions are along the LA and south TX coasts, and across portions of the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms have recently developed along a frontal zone across southern LA. This activity will gradually propagate off the LA coast later this evening and focus offshore. Some risk for weak convection also extends across south TX along this frontal zone. A notable short-wave trough is advancing toward the WA/OR coast early this evening. A few flashes of lightning have been observed off Vancouver Island with this feature. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms continues near the coast as the surface front surges inland and profiles cool. ..Darrow.. 12/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Potential for lighting is negligible across most of the CONUS tonight. A few exceptions are along the LA and south TX coasts, and across portions of the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms have recently developed along a frontal zone across southern LA. This activity will gradually propagate off the LA coast later this evening and focus offshore. Some risk for weak convection also extends across south TX along this frontal zone. A notable short-wave trough is advancing toward the WA/OR coast early this evening. A few flashes of lightning have been observed off Vancouver Island with this feature. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms continues near the coast as the surface front surges inland and profiles cool. ..Darrow.. 12/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid/upper level ridge is expected to amplify over the central U.S. through midweek supporting dry conditions and near record warm temperatures across the Plains. A deepening trough across the northeast Pacific should bring increasing Pacific moisture, including widespread rain and mountain snow into the much of the western U.S. through the week. Longer term model guidance indicates a westward shift of the mid-level ridge while troughing develops across the Northeast. This could invite a cold air intrusion into much of the eastern U.S. by early next week but still limits rainfall potential across the Plains. ...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains... The Southern High Plains will remain the focus for fire weather concerns through midweek with increasingly dry fuels in place. A deepening lee trough across the southern High Plains will maintain dry and breezy conditions across portions of northeast NM, TX/OK Panhandles, southeast CO and southwest KS on Day 4/Wednesday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained for this region. Enhanced southwest winds are also expected farther east into northern TX and central OK on Wednesday, but deeper Gulf boundary layer moisture should limit a more significant fire weather threat. Similarly breezy conditions should exist on Day 5/Thursday, but increasing Pacific moisture/cloud cover could considerably limit RH reductions across the TX/OK Panhandles and adjacent high plains. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Relatively warm and dry conditions will persist across much of the central and southern Plains through the weekend. A potential strong cold front sweeps through the Plains and eastern CONUS as mid/upper-level troughing evolves across Ontario/Quebec Canadian provinces and northeastern U.S. However, forecast uncertainty remains high in terms of timing of the front, particularly across the Southern Plains where receptive fuels will likely exist. This precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 12/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid/upper level ridge is expected to amplify over the central U.S. through midweek supporting dry conditions and near record warm temperatures across the Plains. A deepening trough across the northeast Pacific should bring increasing Pacific moisture, including widespread rain and mountain snow into the much of the western U.S. through the week. Longer term model guidance indicates a westward shift of the mid-level ridge while troughing develops across the Northeast. This could invite a cold air intrusion into much of the eastern U.S. by early next week but still limits rainfall potential across the Plains. ...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains... The Southern High Plains will remain the focus for fire weather concerns through midweek with increasingly dry fuels in place. A deepening lee trough across the southern High Plains will maintain dry and breezy conditions across portions of northeast NM, TX/OK Panhandles, southeast CO and southwest KS on Day 4/Wednesday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained for this region. Enhanced southwest winds are also expected farther east into northern TX and central OK on Wednesday, but deeper Gulf boundary layer moisture should limit a more significant fire weather threat. Similarly breezy conditions should exist on Day 5/Thursday, but increasing Pacific moisture/cloud cover could considerably limit RH reductions across the TX/OK Panhandles and adjacent high plains. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Relatively warm and dry conditions will persist across much of the central and southern Plains through the weekend. A potential strong cold front sweeps through the Plains and eastern CONUS as mid/upper-level troughing evolves across Ontario/Quebec Canadian provinces and northeastern U.S. However, forecast uncertainty remains high in terms of timing of the front, particularly across the Southern Plains where receptive fuels will likely exist. This precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 12/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 21 22:02:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 21 22:02:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z A subtle mid-level short wave embedded within broad westerly flow aloft should move into the upper Missouri River Valley Monday afternoon. As a result, enhanced lee troughing across the northern/central Plains will expand southward into the southern High Plains as broader surface high pressure shifts east-southeastward into the Mid Atlantic. This will promote an increasingly favorable dry downslope regime across the southern High Plains and adjacent leeward locations of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and CO Front Range. Despite upper-level cloud cover, near record warmth with temperatures in the 60s and 70s along with west winds of 10-15 mph and minimum relative values as low as 10 percent are possible in the lee of the Southern Rockies. Thus, Elevated highlights were expended to cover this threat amid increasingly dry fuels. A more expansive fire weather threat is still expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle where a low-level thermal ridge and subsequent well above normal temperatures in the 70s and 80s will align with west winds of around 15 mph (localized 20 mph) and 15-20 percent relative humidity by early Monday afternoon. Elevated highlights remain across this region amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 12/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the CONUS tomorrow (Monday), with surface lee troughing continuing over the Plains states. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with 15-20 percent RH becoming common over most locales as the boundary layer mixes Monday afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts a corridor of 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds overlapping the aforementioned RH for several hours Monday afternoon across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Elevated highlights are warranted for these conditions given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z A subtle mid-level short wave embedded within broad westerly flow aloft should move into the upper Missouri River Valley Monday afternoon. As a result, enhanced lee troughing across the northern/central Plains will expand southward into the southern High Plains as broader surface high pressure shifts east-southeastward into the Mid Atlantic. This will promote an increasingly favorable dry downslope regime across the southern High Plains and adjacent leeward locations of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and CO Front Range. Despite upper-level cloud cover, near record warmth with temperatures in the 60s and 70s along with west winds of 10-15 mph and minimum relative values as low as 10 percent are possible in the lee of the Southern Rockies. Thus, Elevated highlights were expended to cover this threat amid increasingly dry fuels. A more expansive fire weather threat is still expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle where a low-level thermal ridge and subsequent well above normal temperatures in the 70s and 80s will align with west winds of around 15 mph (localized 20 mph) and 15-20 percent relative humidity by early Monday afternoon. Elevated highlights remain across this region amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 12/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the CONUS tomorrow (Monday), with surface lee troughing continuing over the Plains states. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with 15-20 percent RH becoming common over most locales as the boundary layer mixes Monday afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts a corridor of 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds overlapping the aforementioned RH for several hours Monday afternoon across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Elevated highlights are warranted for these conditions given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more