SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will build over the CONUS, resulting in surface high
pressure overspreading the eastern CONUS as a surface trough becomes
established over the Plains today. Relatively cool and/or moist
conditions will prevail over most locales east of the Rockies,
limiting the potential for significant wildfire spread.
..Squitieri.. 12/21/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.
...Synopsis...
Model guidance continues to show an upper-level ridge and quiescent
conditions influencing weather across much of Lower 48 states on
Monday. A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the eastern
Pacific into WA and British Columbia during the period.
Increasingly cool mid-level temperatures will support pockets of
scant instability near the Pacific Northwest coast. Widely
scattered showers and perhaps a few low-topped thunderstorms may
develop along the immediate coast. Farther southeast along the
lower coast of TX within a seasonably moist airmass, weak convection
may develop but negligible forcing will likely limit convective
potential with this activity.
..Smith.. 12/21/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.
...Synopsis...
Model guidance continues to show an upper-level ridge and quiescent
conditions influencing weather across much of Lower 48 states on
Monday. A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the eastern
Pacific into WA and British Columbia during the period.
Increasingly cool mid-level temperatures will support pockets of
scant instability near the Pacific Northwest coast. Widely
scattered showers and perhaps a few low-topped thunderstorms may
develop along the immediate coast. Farther southeast along the
lower coast of TX within a seasonably moist airmass, weak convection
may develop but negligible forcing will likely limit convective
potential with this activity.
..Smith.. 12/21/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Pacific Northwest...
Low-amplitude short-wave trough is forecast to approach the Pacific
Northwest coast later this evening as modest midlevel height falls
spread inland across WA/OR. Latest model guidance suggests weak
buoyancy will persist much of the period, particularly near the
coast, where onshore flow will contribute to SBCAPE generally less
than 100 J/kg. As freezing levels lower, shallow convection may
penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. For these
reasons will maintain 10% probability for isolated thunderstorms,
primarily near the coast.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/21/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Pacific Northwest...
Low-amplitude short-wave trough is forecast to approach the Pacific
Northwest coast later this evening as modest midlevel height falls
spread inland across WA/OR. Latest model guidance suggests weak
buoyancy will persist much of the period, particularly near the
coast, where onshore flow will contribute to SBCAPE generally less
than 100 J/kg. As freezing levels lower, shallow convection may
penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. For these
reasons will maintain 10% probability for isolated thunderstorms,
primarily near the coast.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/21/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Pacific Northwest...
Low-amplitude short-wave trough is forecast to approach the Pacific
Northwest coast later this evening as modest midlevel height falls
spread inland across WA/OR. Latest model guidance suggests weak
buoyancy will persist much of the period, particularly near the
coast, where onshore flow will contribute to SBCAPE generally less
than 100 J/kg. As freezing levels lower, shallow convection may
penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. For these
reasons will maintain 10% probability for isolated thunderstorms,
primarily near the coast.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/21/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur late tonight over southern
Louisiana; however, this activity will be very sparse.
...01z Update...
Weak surface front is expected to settle into northern LA, arcing
southwest into the Hill Country of central TX by the end of the
period. Favorable low-level trajectories will continue across the
western Gulf basin into southern LA tonight where 60s surface dew
points are expected to hold. However, large-scale forcing is not
expected to be particularly notable and a fairly strong cap is
currently noted around 2km on the 00z LCH sounding. Latest model
guidance suggests this capping will likely persist, but possibly
weaken toward 12z. If so, a few flashes of lightning may accompany
weak convection across southern LA.
..Darrow.. 12/21/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur late tonight over southern
Louisiana; however, this activity will be very sparse.
...01z Update...
Weak surface front is expected to settle into northern LA, arcing
southwest into the Hill Country of central TX by the end of the
period. Favorable low-level trajectories will continue across the
western Gulf basin into southern LA tonight where 60s surface dew
points are expected to hold. However, large-scale forcing is not
expected to be particularly notable and a fairly strong cap is
currently noted around 2km on the 00z LCH sounding. Latest model
guidance suggests this capping will likely persist, but possibly
weaken toward 12z. If so, a few flashes of lightning may accompany
weak convection across southern LA.
..Darrow.. 12/21/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 221200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
Increasing mid to upper-level heights are expected over the central
and southern CONUS by early next week as a ridge migrates eastward
over Chihuahua Mexico and into the Southern Plains. This ridge will
continue to drift eastward through mid to late next week over the
Gulf, while troughing begins to impact the Pacific Northwest.
Persistent west to southwest mid-level flow across the Rockies will
aid in lee troughing throughout next week, and the potential for
some breezy winds at the surface across the Central and Southern
High Plains.
...Southern High Plains...
Breezy westerly downslope winds are expected to impact the TX and OK
Panhandles and east-central NM by Monday/D3. Low critical
probabilities will remain in the forecast here, though there are
some indications of only locally critical RH being reached.
Decreasing surface wind speeds will accompany a decreasing surface
pressure gradient Tuesday/D4 across this same region. By
Wednesday/D5, however, increasing downslope flow will return as a
lee trough deepens. This stronger surface flow will likely be more
confined to the northwestern/western TX/OK Panhandles and far
northeastern NM, where low critical probabilities remain in place
from the previous forecast. In addition, fuels across this landscape
will become more receptive to fire start/spread with very little to
no sign of appreciable precipitation and above average
temperatures/low relative humidity anticipated through the extended
forecast.
..Barnes.. 12/20/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 221200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
Increasing mid to upper-level heights are expected over the central
and southern CONUS by early next week as a ridge migrates eastward
over Chihuahua Mexico and into the Southern Plains. This ridge will
continue to drift eastward through mid to late next week over the
Gulf, while troughing begins to impact the Pacific Northwest.
Persistent west to southwest mid-level flow across the Rockies will
aid in lee troughing throughout next week, and the potential for
some breezy winds at the surface across the Central and Southern
High Plains.
...Southern High Plains...
Breezy westerly downslope winds are expected to impact the TX and OK
Panhandles and east-central NM by Monday/D3. Low critical
probabilities will remain in the forecast here, though there are
some indications of only locally critical RH being reached.
Decreasing surface wind speeds will accompany a decreasing surface
pressure gradient Tuesday/D4 across this same region. By
Wednesday/D5, however, increasing downslope flow will return as a
lee trough deepens. This stronger surface flow will likely be more
confined to the northwestern/western TX/OK Panhandles and far
northeastern NM, where low critical probabilities remain in place
from the previous forecast. In addition, fuels across this landscape
will become more receptive to fire start/spread with very little to
no sign of appreciable precipitation and above average
temperatures/low relative humidity anticipated through the extended
forecast.
..Barnes.. 12/20/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 202000Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur today across parts of coastal
Washington/Oregon and tonight over southern Louisiana. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous
discussion below for more information.
..Gleason.. 12/20/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0953 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025/
Dry and stable conditions will prevail over most of the CONUS today,
precluding thunderstorms. One exception will be over western WA
west of the Cascades, where fast onshore flow, orographic lift, and
100-200 J/kg of CAPE will be present. The other area of some risk
of lightning will be over southern LA tonight in a weak low-level
warm advection regime. In both areas, thunderstorm coverage is
anticipated to be sparse and severe risk negligible.
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 202000Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur today across parts of coastal
Washington/Oregon and tonight over southern Louisiana. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous
discussion below for more information.
..Gleason.. 12/20/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0953 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025/
Dry and stable conditions will prevail over most of the CONUS today,
precluding thunderstorms. One exception will be over western WA
west of the Cascades, where fast onshore flow, orographic lift, and
100-200 J/kg of CAPE will be present. The other area of some risk
of lightning will be over southern LA tonight in a weak low-level
warm advection regime. In both areas, thunderstorm coverage is
anticipated to be sparse and severe risk negligible.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Update...
No changes are needed for the Day 2 forecast. Please see the
discussion below for additional information.
..Barnes.. 12/20/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS tomorrow (Sunday),
with surface high pressure becoming established east of the
Mississippi River as surface lee troughing and associated southerly
flow overspreads the Plains states. While breezy conditions are
likely across parts of the central into southern Plains, modest
moisture return may accompany the windy southerly flow, which may
limit wildfire-spread potential. As such, overall quiescent fire
weather conditions are likely across the CONUS on Sunday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the CONUS on
Monday. A compact, moderately strong shortwave trough will move into
the Pacific Northwest by mid/late afternoon. As the surface high
continues to move south and east through the Mid-Atlantic, moisture
return will occur in the western/central Gulf Coast regions. Very
isolated thunderstorm activity could occur near the Texas Gulf
Coast, but this potential should be quite limited given ridging
aloft and weak low-level forcing. Within the coastal Northwest, cold
temperatures aloft are expected to support isolated, low-topped
thunderstorm activity late afternoon into early evening.
..Wendt.. 12/20/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow aloft will become modestly more amplified on Sunday.
Upper-level ridging will become more prominent in the central U.S. A
low-amplitude shortwave trough will move into the Northwest during
the evening. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may impact coastal
areas of Washington and far northwest Oregon. Along the central Gulf
coast, a cold front will slow and become nearly stationary inland. A
weak warm/moist advection regime could lead to development of
showers. Given the slight rise in mid-level heights, residual
capping, and lack of greater low-level forcing, potential for
thunderstorm development within this regime still appears low.
..Wendt.. 12/20/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow aloft will become modestly more amplified on Sunday.
Upper-level ridging will become more prominent in the central U.S. A
low-amplitude shortwave trough will move into the Northwest during
the evening. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may impact coastal
areas of Washington and far northwest Oregon. Along the central Gulf
coast, a cold front will slow and become nearly stationary inland. A
weak warm/moist advection regime could lead to development of
showers. Given the slight rise in mid-level heights, residual
capping, and lack of greater low-level forcing, potential for
thunderstorm development within this regime still appears low.
..Wendt.. 12/20/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 201700Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...
...Update...
No changes were required for today's forecast. Expect increasing
westerly winds throughout the afternoon, with RH dropping into the
low teens to single digits. Please see the previous discussion for
additional details.
..Barnes.. 12/20/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will gradually amplify while traversing the Great
Lakes today, encouraging the southward translation of a weakening
surface low across the southern Plains. As a result, dry downslope
flow is expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western
Texas ahead of a southward-sagging surface cold front today. During
the afternoon, with boundary-layer mixing, RH will drop below 20
percent over several locales as sustained westerly surface winds
exceeding 15 mph becomes abundant, warranting the continuation of
Elevated highlights. Guidance consensus continues to depict
overlapping 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15 percent
RH along portions of the New Mexico/Texas border, where Critical
highlights have been maintained.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur today near coastal Washington, and
tonight over southern Louisiana.
Dry and stable conditions will prevail over most of the CONUS today,
precluding thunderstorms. One exception will be over western WA
west of the Cascades, where fast onshore flow, orographic lift, and
100-200 J/kg of CAPE will be present. The other area of some risk
of lightning will be over southern LA tonight in a weak low-level
warm advection regime. In both areas, thunderstorm coverage is
anticipated to be sparse and severe risk negligible.
..Hart/Karstens.. 12/20/2025
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