Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few lightning flashes may occur today near coastal Washington. ...Discussion... Progressive/low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail over the CONUS to the south of an amplifying shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Ontario. Surface high pressure will expand eastward across the Plains and Midwest. Some inland moistening will occur across east Texas toward the Lower Mississippi Valley via the western Gulf, but weak forcing/capping will hinder appreciable convective development. In the Pacific Northwest, a marginally supportive thermodynamic environment may allow for a few lightning flashes near the Washington coast today and tonight. ..Guyer/Marsh.. 12/20/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large-scale pattern next week will be highlighted by prominent upper ridging and anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central to eastern CONUS, with upper troughing developing toward the West Coast by mid/late week. This pattern should considerably limit deep convective potential over much of the CONUS, even while a relatively warm/moist airmass will exist across the Plains and Midwest. With the approach of a low-latitude upper trough and increasing moisture, thunderstorm potential, potentially including some strong/locally severe storms with gusty winds, could occur across coastal portions of central and southern California during the last half of Wednesday/Day 5 into Thursday/Day 6 Christmas. However, the degree of destabilization and some synoptic-related forecast details remain uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large-scale pattern next week will be highlighted by prominent upper ridging and anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central to eastern CONUS, with upper troughing developing toward the West Coast by mid/late week. This pattern should considerably limit deep convective potential over much of the CONUS, even while a relatively warm/moist airmass will exist across the Plains and Midwest. With the approach of a low-latitude upper trough and increasing moisture, thunderstorm potential, potentially including some strong/locally severe storms with gusty winds, could occur across coastal portions of central and southern California during the last half of Wednesday/Day 5 into Thursday/Day 6 Christmas. However, the degree of destabilization and some synoptic-related forecast details remain uncertain. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... The large-scale pattern will undergo modest amplification on Monday via additional upper ridging over the south-central CONUS and northern Mexico. As a surface high continues to transition east-southeastward along the Eastern Seaboard/Southeast, moderate low-level moistening will occur north-northeastward across Louisiana/eastern half of Texas toward the ArkLaTex. A few thunderstorms could occur within this warm/moist advection regime, but it currently appears that upper ridging and related mid-level capping should considerably limit thunderstorm potential. In the Pacific Northwest, a few lightning flashes could occur near coastal Washington, but this potential should remain limited/isolated while also trending less thermodynamically favorable by late in the day. ..Guyer.. 12/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... The large-scale pattern will undergo modest amplification on Monday via additional upper ridging over the south-central CONUS and northern Mexico. As a surface high continues to transition east-southeastward along the Eastern Seaboard/Southeast, moderate low-level moistening will occur north-northeastward across Louisiana/eastern half of Texas toward the ArkLaTex. A few thunderstorms could occur within this warm/moist advection regime, but it currently appears that upper ridging and related mid-level capping should considerably limit thunderstorm potential. In the Pacific Northwest, a few lightning flashes could occur near coastal Washington, but this potential should remain limited/isolated while also trending less thermodynamically favorable by late in the day. ..Guyer.. 12/20/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS tomorrow (Sunday), with surface high pressure becoming established east of the Mississippi River as surface lee troughing and associated southerly flow overspreads the Plains states. While breezy conditions are likely across parts of the central into southern Plains, modest moisture return may accompany the windy southerly flow, which may limit wildfire-spread potential. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are likely across the CONUS on Sunday. ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS tomorrow (Sunday), with surface high pressure becoming established east of the Mississippi River as surface lee troughing and associated southerly flow overspreads the Plains states. While breezy conditions are likely across parts of the central into southern Plains, modest moisture return may accompany the windy southerly flow, which may limit wildfire-spread potential. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are likely across the CONUS on Sunday. ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will gradually amplify while traversing the Great Lakes today, encouraging the southward translation of a weakening surface low across the southern Plains. As a result, dry downslope flow is expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas ahead of a southward-sagging surface cold front today. During the afternoon, with boundary-layer mixing, RH will drop below 20 percent over several locales as sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 15 mph becomes abundant, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Guidance consensus continues to depict overlapping 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15 percent RH along portions of the New Mexico/Texas border, where Critical highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will gradually amplify while traversing the Great Lakes today, encouraging the southward translation of a weakening surface low across the southern Plains. As a result, dry downslope flow is expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas ahead of a southward-sagging surface cold front today. During the afternoon, with boundary-layer mixing, RH will drop below 20 percent over several locales as sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 15 mph becomes abundant, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Guidance consensus continues to depict overlapping 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15 percent RH along portions of the New Mexico/Texas border, where Critical highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... Progressive/generally zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the CONUS on Sunday. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move inland over the Pacific Northwest, with thermodynamic profiles potentially becoming conducive for a few low-topped thunderstorms mainly for coastal portions of Washington. East of the Rockies, surface high pressure and continental trajectories will be prevalent with essentially nil thunderstorm potential. Gradual air mass modification and low-level moistening will occur over the western Gulf. However, a limited forcing regime and residual capping are currently expected to preclude thunderstorms along the Texas coast. ..Guyer.. 12/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes may occur near coastal sections of Washington today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the eastern CONUS while upper ridging builds west of the Rockies, resulting in surface high pressure overspreading the Midwest as a surface trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest Coastline. Cooler temperatures aloft will overspread a marine boundary layer over the Washington coast, resulting in scant buoyancy, which may favor a few convective updrafts that may deepen enough to produce isolated lightning flashes. A weakening surface low will also drift southward across the southern Plains, promoting low-level moisture return inland from the western Gulf. However, considerable convective inhibition should limit convective development through the Day 1 period. ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes may occur near coastal sections of Washington today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the eastern CONUS while upper ridging builds west of the Rockies, resulting in surface high pressure overspreading the Midwest as a surface trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest Coastline. Cooler temperatures aloft will overspread a marine boundary layer over the Washington coast, resulting in scant buoyancy, which may favor a few convective updrafts that may deepen enough to produce isolated lightning flashes. A weakening surface low will also drift southward across the southern Plains, promoting low-level moisture return inland from the western Gulf. However, considerable convective inhibition should limit convective development through the Day 1 period. ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface trough are ejecting into the Atlantic, with any available scant buoyancy being displaced east of the CONUS. As such, any thunderstorms and accompanying thunderstorm wind threat should be ending soon, though damaging gusts from gradient flow (non-thunderstorm processes) may persist through the evening hours. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a zonal upper pattern will be in place, with a few embedded impulses poised to traverse the northwestern quadrant of the CONUS over the next few hours. Pockets of cooler temperatures aloft with these impulses may support just enough buoyancy (however scant) for a few lightning flashes across portions of northwestern Wyoming and the Pacific Northwest coastline through early tonight. ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface trough are ejecting into the Atlantic, with any available scant buoyancy being displaced east of the CONUS. As such, any thunderstorms and accompanying thunderstorm wind threat should be ending soon, though damaging gusts from gradient flow (non-thunderstorm processes) may persist through the evening hours. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a zonal upper pattern will be in place, with a few embedded impulses poised to traverse the northwestern quadrant of the CONUS over the next few hours. Pockets of cooler temperatures aloft with these impulses may support just enough buoyancy (however scant) for a few lightning flashes across portions of northwestern Wyoming and the Pacific Northwest coastline through early tonight. ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 19 22:31:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 19 22:31:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Upper-level ridging will slowly build out of northern Mexico into the southern/central US next week then slowly drift east, with the upper high likely shifting from north-central Mexico to the Louisiana Gulf Coast/vicinity. Strong flow will be on the periphery of the ridging with some stronger flow/smaller jets traversing across the southern/Colorado Rockies. Deeper troughing is likely to develop off the West Coast before moving into the West and breaking down/shifting the upper ridge over the southern/central US. ...Southern/Central High Plains... Stronger flow aloft will spread across the Colorado/southern Rockies, increasing downslope flow and lee troughing on Day 4/Monday. This will likely result in elevated to perhaps critical fire weather conditions in portions of northeast New Mexico, far southeast Colorado, and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. There appears to be a slackening of the flow aloft on Day 5/Tuesday as the ridge builds and before the next jet arrives. However, some dry/breezy conditions remain possible in the vicinity of the Day 4/Monday 40% area. On Day 6/Wednesday, forecast guidance indicates a small jet will move over the southern/Colorado Rockies, which will increase downslope flow and likely result in elevated to critical conditions. While there is good forecast guidance agreement on the timing and location of this feature, only a smaller 40% area was included due to the typical uncertainty associated with these types of features. Dry/windy conditions are likely late next week on portions of the southern/central High Plains as a deep trough moves into the West and begins to break down and shift the ridge over the southern/central US. However, the timing and orientation the stronger flow aloft remains uncertain and precludes introducing probabilities at this time. Given the lack of recent and forecast precipitation and multiple rounds of elevated/critical fire weather conditions for the southern/central Plains, fuels have and will continue to cure. Increased fuel loading across many of these areas, especially in portions of Oklahoma and Texas, are of concern with any forecast elevated/critical fire weather conditions. ..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Upper-level ridging will slowly build out of northern Mexico into the southern/central US next week then slowly drift east, with the upper high likely shifting from north-central Mexico to the Louisiana Gulf Coast/vicinity. Strong flow will be on the periphery of the ridging with some stronger flow/smaller jets traversing across the southern/Colorado Rockies. Deeper troughing is likely to develop off the West Coast before moving into the West and breaking down/shifting the upper ridge over the southern/central US. ...Southern/Central High Plains... Stronger flow aloft will spread across the Colorado/southern Rockies, increasing downslope flow and lee troughing on Day 4/Monday. This will likely result in elevated to perhaps critical fire weather conditions in portions of northeast New Mexico, far southeast Colorado, and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. There appears to be a slackening of the flow aloft on Day 5/Tuesday as the ridge builds and before the next jet arrives. However, some dry/breezy conditions remain possible in the vicinity of the Day 4/Monday 40% area. On Day 6/Wednesday, forecast guidance indicates a small jet will move over the southern/Colorado Rockies, which will increase downslope flow and likely result in elevated to critical conditions. While there is good forecast guidance agreement on the timing and location of this feature, only a smaller 40% area was included due to the typical uncertainty associated with these types of features. Dry/windy conditions are likely late next week on portions of the southern/central High Plains as a deep trough moves into the West and begins to break down and shift the ridge over the southern/central US. However, the timing and orientation the stronger flow aloft remains uncertain and precludes introducing probabilities at this time. Given the lack of recent and forecast precipitation and multiple rounds of elevated/critical fire weather conditions for the southern/central Plains, fuels have and will continue to cure. Increased fuel loading across many of these areas, especially in portions of Oklahoma and Texas, are of concern with any forecast elevated/critical fire weather conditions. ..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While strong/gusty winds remain possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this afternoon and evening, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms is expected to remain low. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes have been made to the existing General Thunderstorm areas. A band of low-topped convection is moving across eastern PA toward northern NJ this afternoon, with sporadic strong to severe gusts noted with this feature. Organized convection is not expected due to negligible buoyancy, but strong deep-layer winds associated with a powerful mid/upper-level trough and attendant cold front moving across the eastern CONUS will continue to support strong/damaging gusts both near and removed from any remaining convection. ..Dean.. 12/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough with very strong low/mid-level flow will continue moving east-northeastward today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Associated surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across these regions through the afternoon, and will clear the Atlantic Coast by this evening. A loosely organized, low-topped convective line has moved east of NJ, and should impact parts of Long Island over the next couple of hours. Due to poor lapse rates aloft and limited diurnal heating with continued cloud cover, minimal instability is forecast to be in place ahead of this line. The threat for strong/gusty winds should continue both with gradient winds within the strong low-level warm advection regime and along/behind the front. But given the poor thermodynamic environment and tendency for any additional convection to remain elevated, the Marginal Risk across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast has been removed with this update. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While strong/gusty winds remain possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this afternoon and evening, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms is expected to remain low. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes have been made to the existing General Thunderstorm areas. A band of low-topped convection is moving across eastern PA toward northern NJ this afternoon, with sporadic strong to severe gusts noted with this feature. Organized convection is not expected due to negligible buoyancy, but strong deep-layer winds associated with a powerful mid/upper-level trough and attendant cold front moving across the eastern CONUS will continue to support strong/damaging gusts both near and removed from any remaining convection. ..Dean.. 12/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough with very strong low/mid-level flow will continue moving east-northeastward today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Associated surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across these regions through the afternoon, and will clear the Atlantic Coast by this evening. A loosely organized, low-topped convective line has moved east of NJ, and should impact parts of Long Island over the next couple of hours. Due to poor lapse rates aloft and limited diurnal heating with continued cloud cover, minimal instability is forecast to be in place ahead of this line. The threat for strong/gusty winds should continue both with gradient winds within the strong low-level warm advection regime and along/behind the front. But given the poor thermodynamic environment and tendency for any additional convection to remain elevated, the Marginal Risk across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast has been removed with this update. Read more