Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LLANO ESTACADO... The Critical area was modified slightly, and the Elevated area expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Gusty winds associated with the cold frontal passage is likely to result in locally elevated/elevated fire weather conditions in portions of the Texas Panhandle, southwest Kansas, and northwest Texas. While RH increases and temperatures decrease by the evening, breezy to gusty northeast winds behind a wind shift is of concern. Additionally, locally critical conditions are likely in portions of the Trans Pecos, especially in leeside, wind prone locations. ..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly translate across the northern and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in surface high pressure overspreading much of the eastern CONUS as a surface low drifts south across Texas during the day. Ahead of a surface frontal boundary, dry downslope westerly flow will promote 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping 15 percent RH amid dry fuels along the New Mexico/Texas border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LLANO ESTACADO... The Critical area was modified slightly, and the Elevated area expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Gusty winds associated with the cold frontal passage is likely to result in locally elevated/elevated fire weather conditions in portions of the Texas Panhandle, southwest Kansas, and northwest Texas. While RH increases and temperatures decrease by the evening, breezy to gusty northeast winds behind a wind shift is of concern. Additionally, locally critical conditions are likely in portions of the Trans Pecos, especially in leeside, wind prone locations. ..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly translate across the northern and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in surface high pressure overspreading much of the eastern CONUS as a surface low drifts south across Texas during the day. Ahead of a surface frontal boundary, dry downslope westerly flow will promote 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping 15 percent RH amid dry fuels along the New Mexico/Texas border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunderstorm activity is expected on Sunday across the USA. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move across the Northeast on Sunday, with generally zonal flow extending to the west. At the surface, high pressure will move eastward across the Midwest during day, and toward the Mid Atlantic by Monday morning. As result of the dry air mass, stable conditions will be prevalent over much of the central and eastern CONUS. To the west, a weak midlevel feature will approach the Pacific Northwest with cooling aloft as a cold front approaches the WA/OR Coast around 00Z. Little if any instability is forecast to be present except primarily over the ocean. Farther south, southwest flow with midlevel moisture and lift will be prevalent across much of northern CA, and weak elevated instability is forecast by some of the models. However, overall thunderstorm/lightning coverage will likely be quite low. ..Jewell.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunderstorm activity is expected on Sunday across the USA. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move across the Northeast on Sunday, with generally zonal flow extending to the west. At the surface, high pressure will move eastward across the Midwest during day, and toward the Mid Atlantic by Monday morning. As result of the dry air mass, stable conditions will be prevalent over much of the central and eastern CONUS. To the west, a weak midlevel feature will approach the Pacific Northwest with cooling aloft as a cold front approaches the WA/OR Coast around 00Z. Little if any instability is forecast to be present except primarily over the ocean. Farther south, southwest flow with midlevel moisture and lift will be prevalent across much of northern CA, and weak elevated instability is forecast by some of the models. However, overall thunderstorm/lightning coverage will likely be quite low. ..Jewell.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out near coastal sections of Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night. ...Synopsis... A benign pattern for thunderstorms will exist on Saturday across most of the CONUS with a broad belt of westerly winds aloft and high pressure over the East. While a trough amplification will develop from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes, antecedent dry surface trajectories around the surface high will maintain stable conditions across those areas. To the west, minimum weak thunderstorm potential may approach coastal WA into Sunday morning as a low-amplitude wave approaches. A sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated instability cannot be ruled out as well farther south across western OR into northern CA, but the overall risk of thunderstorms is quite low. ..Jewell.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out near coastal sections of Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night. ...Synopsis... A benign pattern for thunderstorms will exist on Saturday across most of the CONUS with a broad belt of westerly winds aloft and high pressure over the East. While a trough amplification will develop from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes, antecedent dry surface trajectories around the surface high will maintain stable conditions across those areas. To the west, minimum weak thunderstorm potential may approach coastal WA into Sunday morning as a low-amplitude wave approaches. A sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated instability cannot be ruled out as well farther south across western OR into northern CA, but the overall risk of thunderstorms is quite low. ..Jewell.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While strong/gusty winds will continue across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms is expected to remain low. ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough with very strong low/mid-level flow will continue moving east-northeastward today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Associated surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across these regions through the afternoon, and will clear the Atlantic Coast by this evening. A loosely organized, low-topped convective line has moved east of NJ, and should impact parts of Long Island over the next couple of hours. Due to poor lapse rates aloft and limited diurnal heating with continued cloud cover, minimal instability is forecast to be in place ahead of this line. The threat for strong/gusty winds should continue both with gradient winds within the strong low-level warm advection regime and along/behind the front. But given the poor thermodynamic environment and tendency for any additional convection to remain elevated, the Marginal Risk across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast has been removed with this update. ..Gleason/Hart.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While strong/gusty winds will continue across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms is expected to remain low. ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough with very strong low/mid-level flow will continue moving east-northeastward today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Associated surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across these regions through the afternoon, and will clear the Atlantic Coast by this evening. A loosely organized, low-topped convective line has moved east of NJ, and should impact parts of Long Island over the next couple of hours. Due to poor lapse rates aloft and limited diurnal heating with continued cloud cover, minimal instability is forecast to be in place ahead of this line. The threat for strong/gusty winds should continue both with gradient winds within the strong low-level warm advection regime and along/behind the front. But given the poor thermodynamic environment and tendency for any additional convection to remain elevated, the Marginal Risk across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast has been removed with this update. ..Gleason/Hart.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While strong/gusty winds will continue across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms is expected to remain low. ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough with very strong low/mid-level flow will continue moving east-northeastward today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Associated surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across these regions through the afternoon, and will clear the Atlantic Coast by this evening. A loosely organized, low-topped convective line has moved east of NJ, and should impact parts of Long Island over the next couple of hours. Due to poor lapse rates aloft and limited diurnal heating with continued cloud cover, minimal instability is forecast to be in place ahead of this line. The threat for strong/gusty winds should continue both with gradient winds within the strong low-level warm advection regime and along/behind the front. But given the poor thermodynamic environment and tendency for any additional convection to remain elevated, the Marginal Risk across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast has been removed with this update. ..Gleason/Hart.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0928 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ALONG/EAST OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... The Critical area was expanded south along the Colorado Rockies with a slight expansion of the Elevated in portions of central Colorado and southwest Texas based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. Westerly wind gusts of 40-70 mph with RH of 15-30% are already being observed in southeast Wyoming, along portions of the Front Range, and into the western Nebraska Panhandle. Cloud cover is over much of the southern/central High Plains, and partly to mostly cloudy conditions are likely to continue today. However, given the strong background flow and dry airmass, elevated to locally critical conditions remain expected across much of the southern/central High Plains, with critical to extremely critical conditions along/east the Front Range into southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. This includes wind gusts up to 100 mph and minimum RH around 10%. A Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Warning has been issued by the NWS Boulder Weather Forecast Office for along/west of the Highway 93 corridor into the foothills from near Golden, CO extending north to near Lyons, CO. ..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a low-amplitude upper trough impinges on the central/northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. 50-70 kt 700-500 mb west-northwesterly flow will accompany the central CONUS upper trough, and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer through the day. The combination of dry downslope flow and surface lee troughing will support widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH across much of the central and southern High Plains into the southern Plains for much of the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical fire weather highlights are in place across portions of central CO into southeastern WY and the NE Panhandle. Here the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a boundary layer extending to over 500 mb, which should support efficient downward momentum transport to the surface. Sustained surface winds should exceed 20 mph (perhaps 30 mph in some spots) amid 15-20 percent RH. Of particular concern is the immediate foothills across north-central CO toward the Cheyenne WY area, where channeled flow within complex terrain may support 50 mph sustained winds in localized spots, with gusts up to 90 mph possible. Given dry fuels and 10-20 percent RH along the foothills, a volatile environment may develop and support rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior for any potential ignitions in the area, warranting Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0928 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ALONG/EAST OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... The Critical area was expanded south along the Colorado Rockies with a slight expansion of the Elevated in portions of central Colorado and southwest Texas based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. Westerly wind gusts of 40-70 mph with RH of 15-30% are already being observed in southeast Wyoming, along portions of the Front Range, and into the western Nebraska Panhandle. Cloud cover is over much of the southern/central High Plains, and partly to mostly cloudy conditions are likely to continue today. However, given the strong background flow and dry airmass, elevated to locally critical conditions remain expected across much of the southern/central High Plains, with critical to extremely critical conditions along/east the Front Range into southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. This includes wind gusts up to 100 mph and minimum RH around 10%. A Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Warning has been issued by the NWS Boulder Weather Forecast Office for along/west of the Highway 93 corridor into the foothills from near Golden, CO extending north to near Lyons, CO. ..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a low-amplitude upper trough impinges on the central/northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. 50-70 kt 700-500 mb west-northwesterly flow will accompany the central CONUS upper trough, and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer through the day. The combination of dry downslope flow and surface lee troughing will support widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH across much of the central and southern High Plains into the southern Plains for much of the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical fire weather highlights are in place across portions of central CO into southeastern WY and the NE Panhandle. Here the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a boundary layer extending to over 500 mb, which should support efficient downward momentum transport to the surface. Sustained surface winds should exceed 20 mph (perhaps 30 mph in some spots) amid 15-20 percent RH. Of particular concern is the immediate foothills across north-central CO toward the Cheyenne WY area, where channeled flow within complex terrain may support 50 mph sustained winds in localized spots, with gusts up to 90 mph possible. Given dry fuels and 10-20 percent RH along the foothills, a volatile environment may develop and support rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior for any potential ignitions in the area, warranting Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds may accompany convection across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today. ...North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... A prominent upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will continue to take on a negative tilt as it quickly transitions east-northeastward toward New England the Canadian Maritimes tonight. A very strong deep-layer wind field (80-110 kt at 500 mb) is attendant to this trough, with these strong winds aloft partially overlapping a modestly moist/minimally unstable warm sector along the I-95 corridor/East Coast ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. A strongly forced semi-organized low-topped convective line, with little or no lightning flashes, is ongoing around sunrise across northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia, and this may further develop north-northeastward across additional portions of the Mid-Atlantic region this morning. Even with minimal buoyancy, some stronger/locally severe wind gusts could occur this morning, and possibly through early afternoon across parts of the near-coastal Northeast. ..Guyer/Marsh.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds may accompany convection across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today. ...North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... A prominent upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will continue to take on a negative tilt as it quickly transitions east-northeastward toward New England the Canadian Maritimes tonight. A very strong deep-layer wind field (80-110 kt at 500 mb) is attendant to this trough, with these strong winds aloft partially overlapping a modestly moist/minimally unstable warm sector along the I-95 corridor/East Coast ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. A strongly forced semi-organized low-topped convective line, with little or no lightning flashes, is ongoing around sunrise across northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia, and this may further develop north-northeastward across additional portions of the Mid-Atlantic region this morning. Even with minimal buoyancy, some stronger/locally severe wind gusts could occur this morning, and possibly through early afternoon across parts of the near-coastal Northeast. ..Guyer/Marsh.. 12/19/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large-scale mid-level flow pattern during the upcoming week will feature ridging/anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central U.S., and southwesterly flow with embedded disturbances across the western states. Although low-level moisture will expand north/northeast from the southern Plains and Southeast into the Midwest/OH Valley region during the week, instability will remain generally limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Overall, the potential for organized severe storms is expected to remain low each day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large-scale mid-level flow pattern during the upcoming week will feature ridging/anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central U.S., and southwesterly flow with embedded disturbances across the western states. Although low-level moisture will expand north/northeast from the southern Plains and Southeast into the Midwest/OH Valley region during the week, instability will remain generally limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Overall, the potential for organized severe storms is expected to remain low each day. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized areas of thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough over the Northeast U.S./Quebec Province will move east on Sunday, as an upstream upper trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. A surface cold front will move across the eastern/southeast U.S. as an expansive high pressure system becomes established behind the front. Generally weak buoyancy may develop near the TX and LA coastal areas where heating of 60s surface dew points takes place, however little in the way of large-scale ascent is expected in this region. Thus, while an isolated thunderstorm will be possible across the lower MS Valley in the vicinity of the front, the overall potential for thunderstorms appears too limited for the introduction of a 10 percent area with this outlook. ..Bunting.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized areas of thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough over the Northeast U.S./Quebec Province will move east on Sunday, as an upstream upper trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. A surface cold front will move across the eastern/southeast U.S. as an expansive high pressure system becomes established behind the front. Generally weak buoyancy may develop near the TX and LA coastal areas where heating of 60s surface dew points takes place, however little in the way of large-scale ascent is expected in this region. Thus, while an isolated thunderstorm will be possible across the lower MS Valley in the vicinity of the front, the overall potential for thunderstorms appears too limited for the introduction of a 10 percent area with this outlook. ..Bunting.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly translate across the northern and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in surface high pressure overspreading much of the eastern CONUS as a surface low drifts south across Texas during the day. Ahead of a surface frontal boundary, dry downslope westerly flow will promote 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping 15 percent RH amid dry fuels along the New Mexico/Texas border. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly translate across the northern and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in surface high pressure overspreading much of the eastern CONUS as a surface low drifts south across Texas during the day. Ahead of a surface frontal boundary, dry downslope westerly flow will promote 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping 15 percent RH amid dry fuels along the New Mexico/Texas border. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FOOTHILLS TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL COLORADO TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a low-amplitude upper trough impinges on the central/northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. 50-70 kt 700-500 mb west-northwesterly flow will accompany the central CONUS upper trough, and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer through the day. The combination of dry downslope flow and surface lee troughing will support widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH across much of the central and southern High Plains into the southern Plains for much of the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical fire weather highlights are in place across portions of central CO into southeastern WY and the NE Panhandle. Here the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a boundary layer extending to over 500 mb, which should support efficient downward momentum transport to the surface. Sustained surface winds should exceed 20 mph (perhaps 30 mph in some spots) amid 15-20 percent RH. Of particular concern is the immediate foothills across north-central CO toward the Cheyenne WY area, where channeled flow within complex terrain may support 50 mph sustained winds in localized spots, with gusts up to 90 mph possible. Given dry fuels and 10-20 percent RH along the foothills, a volatile environment may develop and support rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior for any potential ignitions in the area, warranting Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more