Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FOOTHILLS TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL COLORADO TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a low-amplitude upper trough impinges on the central/northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. 50-70 kt 700-500 mb west-northwesterly flow will accompany the central CONUS upper trough, and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer through the day. The combination of dry downslope flow and surface lee troughing will support widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH across much of the central and southern High Plains into the southern Plains for much of the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical fire weather highlights are in place across portions of central CO into southeastern WY and the NE Panhandle. Here the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a boundary layer extending to over 500 mb, which should support efficient downward momentum transport to the surface. Sustained surface winds should exceed 20 mph (perhaps 30 mph in some spots) amid 15-20 percent RH. Of particular concern is the immediate foothills across north-central CO toward the Cheyenne WY area, where channeled flow within complex terrain may support 50 mph sustained winds in localized spots, with gusts up to 90 mph possible. Given dry fuels and 10-20 percent RH along the foothills, a volatile environment may develop and support rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior for any potential ignitions in the area, warranting Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FOOTHILLS TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL COLORADO TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a low-amplitude upper trough impinges on the central/northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. 50-70 kt 700-500 mb west-northwesterly flow will accompany the central CONUS upper trough, and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer through the day. The combination of dry downslope flow and surface lee troughing will support widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH across much of the central and southern High Plains into the southern Plains for much of the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical fire weather highlights are in place across portions of central CO into southeastern WY and the NE Panhandle. Here the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a boundary layer extending to over 500 mb, which should support efficient downward momentum transport to the surface. Sustained surface winds should exceed 20 mph (perhaps 30 mph in some spots) amid 15-20 percent RH. Of particular concern is the immediate foothills across north-central CO toward the Cheyenne WY area, where channeled flow within complex terrain may support 50 mph sustained winds in localized spots, with gusts up to 90 mph possible. Given dry fuels and 10-20 percent RH along the foothills, a volatile environment may develop and support rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior for any potential ignitions in the area, warranting Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across coastal sections of Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a shortwave trough over Ontario/Quebec Provinces will shift eastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday as an upstream trough approaches the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. Slowly rising heights will extend across the southern U.S. through Saturday night in association with an upper-level high centered over northern Mexico. As modest height falls develop across the Pacific Northwest Late Saturday, very weak buoyancy (on the order of 100 J/kg) may develop along the immediate coastal areas. Isolated convective elements may deepen sufficiently for charge separation/lightning production. Modest low-level moisture should begin returning to the upper Texas/LA coast Saturday on strengthening southerly flow, with 50s to near 60 deg F surface dewpoints as far north as the Arklatex region. The presence of a capping inversion and lack of notable ascent suggests negligible chances for thunderstorms through Saturday night. ..Bunting.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across coastal sections of Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a shortwave trough over Ontario/Quebec Provinces will shift eastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday as an upstream trough approaches the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. Slowly rising heights will extend across the southern U.S. through Saturday night in association with an upper-level high centered over northern Mexico. As modest height falls develop across the Pacific Northwest Late Saturday, very weak buoyancy (on the order of 100 J/kg) may develop along the immediate coastal areas. Isolated convective elements may deepen sufficiently for charge separation/lightning production. Modest low-level moisture should begin returning to the upper Texas/LA coast Saturday on strengthening southerly flow, with 50s to near 60 deg F surface dewpoints as far north as the Arklatex region. The presence of a capping inversion and lack of notable ascent suggests negligible chances for thunderstorms through Saturday night. ..Bunting.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across coastal sections of Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a shortwave trough over Ontario/Quebec Provinces will shift eastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday as an upstream trough approaches the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. Slowly rising heights will extend across the southern U.S. through Saturday night in association with an upper-level high centered over northern Mexico. As modest height falls develop across the Pacific Northwest Late Saturday, very weak buoyancy (on the order of 100 J/kg) may develop along the immediate coastal areas. Isolated convective elements may deepen sufficiently for charge separation/lightning production. Modest low-level moisture should begin returning to the upper Texas/LA coast Saturday on strengthening southerly flow, with 50s to near 60 deg F surface dewpoints as far north as the Arklatex region. The presence of a capping inversion and lack of notable ascent suggests negligible chances for thunderstorms through Saturday night. ..Bunting.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds may accompany convection over the Mid Atlantic today. ...Mid Atlantic... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable midlevel trough over the MS Valley, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to take a more negative-tilt orientation by late morning as 100+kt 500mb speed max develops/translates across the Mid Atlantic by 18z. Impressive 12hr height falls at 500mb will overspread the OH Valley into New England where values will range from 240-300m in response to this strong feature. Needless to say, very strong wind fields will provide background support for organized frontal convection. HREF guidance is in general agreement that a narrow strongly forced line of convection will develop along the surging cold front early in the period. Forecast soundings do not exhibit more than weak SBCAPE with this frontal convection, but some mixing is expected given that 0-3km lapse rates should be on the order of 7 C/km. 40kt mean wind within this layer is expected to contribute to gusty winds with this activity. Have introduced MRGL Risk of damaging winds to account for strong gusts with a narrow line of convection that will surge east along the front. Given the limited buoyancy across southern New England will not introduce wind probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds may accompany convection over the Mid Atlantic today. ...Mid Atlantic... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable midlevel trough over the MS Valley, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to take a more negative-tilt orientation by late morning as 100+kt 500mb speed max develops/translates across the Mid Atlantic by 18z. Impressive 12hr height falls at 500mb will overspread the OH Valley into New England where values will range from 240-300m in response to this strong feature. Needless to say, very strong wind fields will provide background support for organized frontal convection. HREF guidance is in general agreement that a narrow strongly forced line of convection will develop along the surging cold front early in the period. Forecast soundings do not exhibit more than weak SBCAPE with this frontal convection, but some mixing is expected given that 0-3km lapse rates should be on the order of 7 C/km. 40kt mean wind within this layer is expected to contribute to gusty winds with this activity. Have introduced MRGL Risk of damaging winds to account for strong gusts with a narrow line of convection that will surge east along the front. Given the limited buoyancy across southern New England will not introduce wind probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds may accompany convection over the Mid Atlantic today. ...Mid Atlantic... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable midlevel trough over the MS Valley, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to take a more negative-tilt orientation by late morning as 100+kt 500mb speed max develops/translates across the Mid Atlantic by 18z. Impressive 12hr height falls at 500mb will overspread the OH Valley into New England where values will range from 240-300m in response to this strong feature. Needless to say, very strong wind fields will provide background support for organized frontal convection. HREF guidance is in general agreement that a narrow strongly forced line of convection will develop along the surging cold front early in the period. Forecast soundings do not exhibit more than weak SBCAPE with this frontal convection, but some mixing is expected given that 0-3km lapse rates should be on the order of 7 C/km. 40kt mean wind within this layer is expected to contribute to gusty winds with this activity. Have introduced MRGL Risk of damaging winds to account for strong gusts with a narrow line of convection that will surge east along the front. Given the limited buoyancy across southern New England will not introduce wind probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 Read more

MD 2264 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 642... FOR PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
Mesoscale Discussion 2264 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Deep South Concerning...Tornado Watch 642... Valid 190054Z - 190230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 642 continues. SUMMARY...Limited tornado and strong gust threats should persist for at least a few more hours as broken bands of thunderstorms consolidate into a line, with the greatest potential across east-central Mississippi into western Alabama. An additional WW issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells have largely diminished, but one is still ongoing in Newton County, MS. The east-central MS/western AL area will have the primary near-term tornado threat, owing to its proximity to modest but weakening buoyancy sampled by the 00Z JAN sounding. 5.5 to 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates in the JAN/BNA/BMX soundings will remain a limiting factor to more intense updrafts. But enlarged low-level hodographs and persistent low 60s surface dew points will support potential for a tornado or two. Farther north-northeast, faster propagation of cold front convection relative to the pre-frontal swath should yield consolidation into a QLCS that progresses towards the southern Appalachians. Strong gusts capable of locally damaging winds should be the main threat as surface-based instability becomes negligible, east and north of central AL where mid to upper 50s surface dew points persist. ..Grams/Smith.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 32538919 32868837 33718783 34618766 35068736 35468708 35688639 35648624 35608585 35238575 34808582 34388589 33958607 33538627 32948704 32568752 32408794 32258830 32538919 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0642 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 642 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW MEI TO 40 NNE CBM TO 25 NE MSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2264. ..GRAMS..12/19/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 642 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-043-057-059-063-075-077-079-083-089-093-103-107-119-125- 127-133-190240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT CULLMAN FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MORGAN PICKENS SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON MSC069-103-190240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KEMPER NOXUBEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 642 TORNADO AL MS 182305Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 642 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Northern Alabama Eastern Mississippi * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A few supercells are forecast to continue to mature and move east-northeast within a moist and strongly sheared environment across the Watch area. Gradual destabilization will occur immediately ahead of the storm activity this evening. The primary threats accompanying the stronger storms will be damaging gusts and the possibility for a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Huntsville AL to 70 miles south southwest of Columbus MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing occasional damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two, remain possible this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Southeast, and late tonight across portions of coastal North Carolina. ...01z Update... Strong midlevel trough is advancing across the MS Valley early this evening. Associated pronounced surface front has surged into southeast MI-western KY-northwest MS. This boundary will shift across much of the OH/TN Valleys by late evening as the dynamic trough induces strong height falls across this region. Latest radar data reflects this with a strongly forced line of frontal convection. A few strong gusts have been reported along the northern sections of this linear MCS. Of potentially more concern is convection that has developed ahead of the front across eastern MS into northwest AL. This activity has evolved within a greater buoyancy air mass characterized by SBCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. Lower 60s surface dew points have contributed to this instability and a few supercells have matured and are advancing east across Tornado Watch #0642. Greatest risk for organized severe will remain focused across the northern Gulf states this evening. Damaging winds, along with some tornado risk continues. Risk of severe will increase late tonight near the Outer Banks region of NC, and for this region will maintain MRGL Risk. ..Darrow.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing occasional damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two, remain possible this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Southeast, and late tonight across portions of coastal North Carolina. ...01z Update... Strong midlevel trough is advancing across the MS Valley early this evening. Associated pronounced surface front has surged into southeast MI-western KY-northwest MS. This boundary will shift across much of the OH/TN Valleys by late evening as the dynamic trough induces strong height falls across this region. Latest radar data reflects this with a strongly forced line of frontal convection. A few strong gusts have been reported along the northern sections of this linear MCS. Of potentially more concern is convection that has developed ahead of the front across eastern MS into northwest AL. This activity has evolved within a greater buoyancy air mass characterized by SBCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. Lower 60s surface dew points have contributed to this instability and a few supercells have matured and are advancing east across Tornado Watch #0642. Greatest risk for organized severe will remain focused across the northern Gulf states this evening. Damaging winds, along with some tornado risk continues. Risk of severe will increase late tonight near the Outer Banks region of NC, and for this region will maintain MRGL Risk. ..Darrow.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing occasional damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two, remain possible this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Southeast, and late tonight across portions of coastal North Carolina. ...01z Update... Strong midlevel trough is advancing across the MS Valley early this evening. Associated pronounced surface front has surged into southeast MI-western KY-northwest MS. This boundary will shift across much of the OH/TN Valleys by late evening as the dynamic trough induces strong height falls across this region. Latest radar data reflects this with a strongly forced line of frontal convection. A few strong gusts have been reported along the northern sections of this linear MCS. Of potentially more concern is convection that has developed ahead of the front across eastern MS into northwest AL. This activity has evolved within a greater buoyancy air mass characterized by SBCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. Lower 60s surface dew points have contributed to this instability and a few supercells have matured and are advancing east across Tornado Watch #0642. Greatest risk for organized severe will remain focused across the northern Gulf states this evening. Damaging winds, along with some tornado risk continues. Risk of severe will increase late tonight near the Outer Banks region of NC, and for this region will maintain MRGL Risk. ..Darrow.. 12/19/2025 Read more

MD 2262 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas into northern Mississippi...western Tennessee...western Kentucky...and southern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182148Z - 182345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds will be possible as convection along a strong cold front pushes east across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and lower Ohio River Valley. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Convection along a strong cold front has started to show a gradual uptick in intensity across eastern AR into MS/TN per recent GOES IR imagery and lightning trends. This comes as the cold front begins to impinge on a narrow plume of returning moisture into the MS Valley characterized by dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s. Latest RAP mesoanalyses estimate MLCAPE has increased to around 500 J/kg as far north as the I-40 corridor in northeast AR/western TN, which should support further intensification over the next few hours. While thunderstorm intensity will generally be modulated by the meager buoyancy/poor lapse rates, a very strong low-level kinematic environment (40-50 knot winds are noted in regional VWPs within the 0-1 km layer) will support the potential for damaging gusts. One 50 knot gust was recently observed at KHKA in far northeast AR, but velocity imagery from KPAH and KNQA shows only embedded swaths of stronger winds within the line. This suggests that the wind threat should remain fairly localized to narrow corridors. While the potential for damaging winds will be greatest across AR/MS/TN within the axis of appreciable mixed-layer buoyancy, sporadic damaging winds are possible with northward extent into western KY and southern IN. Given the limited thermodynamic environment, the overall intensity of the developing QLCS should remain sufficiently low to preclude watch issuance. Additionally, weak convective cells within a pre-frontal trough across central/north-central MS are being monitored. These cells are developing within the axis of MLCAPE and where low-level SRH is fairly strong (approximately 350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). While confidence is low in whether these cells will intensify due to weaker forcing for ascent and the meager thermodynamic environment, a wind/tornado threat could materialize if sufficient intensification can take place. ..Moore/Gleason.. 12/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN... LZK... LAT...LON 33688883 33048927 32938967 32969009 33039039 33489141 33779182 33959198 34129205 35399048 37058912 38668799 39198774 39418737 39368654 39268600 39028585 38628589 38118594 37488620 37028653 33688883 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 2263 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN MS...WESTERN/NORTHERN AL...SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 2263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Areas affected...eastern MS...western/northern AL...southern Middle TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182236Z - 190000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Increasing potential for a tornadic supercell or two appears to be underway across eastern Mississippi. This should spread into parts of western to northern Alabama through mid-evening. A tornado watch is being considered. DISCUSSION...A broken swath of semi-discrete convection has increased from northeast to central MS along a pre-frontal confluence axis. Surface temperatures have reached the low 60s north to upper 60s south ahead of this axis, with 70s farther south and behind this convection. This has yielded a plume of modest MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg that should shift across western AL this evening. Low-level to deep-layer shear is conducive to a few supercells developing and being maintained within this regime. A tornadic supercell or two is possible before convection probably weakens later in the evening as instability wanes deeper into AL. ..Grams/Smith.. 12/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 34778620 33388682 32918729 32528790 32478836 32488907 32818930 34458838 34988812 35378733 35358647 34778620 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 2261 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Areas affected...Southern Minnesota Concerning...Blizzard Valid 182023Z - 190030Z SUMMARY...Patchy blizzard conditions are spreading southeast into south-central Minnesota and may persist for several hours. DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations from across south-central MN have begun to report visibility reductions of 1/2 to 1/4 mile under a swath of light snowfall. Traffic and snow plow cameras show areas of substantial visibility reductions, estimated to be down to 1/10 mile at times. Widespread 40-60 mph wind gusts continue across the region and will support similar visibility reductions under any areas with even light snowfall rates. Recent high-res guidance suggests that winds may peak over the next hour before gradually diminishing through the evening hours; however, gusts between 30-45 mph will likely continue for the next several hours with a continuation of light snowfall within the mid-level TROWAL region of the maturing cyclone. As such, areas of transient blizzard conditions will likely continue through early/mid-evening. ..Moore.. 12/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 43519467 43739507 44069549 44599562 45079552 45289519 45349479 45279435 44449302 44159292 43889295 43639312 43509330 43429355 43409402 43519467 Read more

WW 0642 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0642 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 642 TORNADO AL MS 182305Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 642 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Northern Alabama Eastern Mississippi * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A few supercells are forecast to continue to mature and move east-northeast within a moist and strongly sheared environment across the Watch area. Gradual destabilization will occur immediately ahead of the storm activity this evening. The primary threats accompanying the stronger storms will be damaging gusts and the possibility for a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Huntsville AL to 70 miles south southwest of Columbus MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Zonal flow aloft will prevail over the CONUS this weekend, with ridging slowly building over the southern US next week. Strong flow aloft will be prevalent around the weak ridging with upper-level troughing likely off/near the West and Northeast Coasts. This stronger west-southwest flow aloft will result in downslope flow on portions of the southern/central High Plains into mid-next week. Little to no precipitation is expected for much of the Plains for the forecast period. ...Day 3/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... West-northwest winds will strengthen ahead of an approaching cold front and amid dry downslope flow, likely resulting in elevated/critical fire weather conditions across much of west Texas into eastern New Mexico. Elevated to locally critical conditions may extend into the western Hill country and north Texas as boundary layer mixing routinely extends farther east than longer-range forecast guidance indicates. The cold front is forecast to arrive in the evening with breezy/gusty north-northeast winds and no precipitation, but temperatures will cool and RH will increase with the frontal passage. ...Day 5/Monday - Day 8/Thursday: southern/central Plains... Warm/dry conditions will continue on the southern/central Plains early into late-next week. Downslope flow will mostly continue on the southern/central High Plains with occasional increases as jets pass through the background flow. A 40% area was added on Day 5/Monday across northeast New Mexico, southeast Colorado, and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to reflect this potential. While the downslope early next week is unlikely to be as strong as this week's, it will be sufficient for at least locally elevated conditions on portions of the southern/central High Plains over multiple days. Additionally, the continued curing of fuels coupled with the potential of elevated/critical winds/RH in a multi-day event will be monitored going forward with additional probabilities likely needed in subsequent outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more