SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 201200Z - 261200Z
Zonal flow aloft will prevail over the CONUS this weekend, with
ridging slowly building over the southern US next week. Strong flow
aloft will be prevalent around the weak ridging with upper-level
troughing likely off/near the West and Northeast Coasts. This
stronger west-southwest flow aloft will result in downslope flow on
portions of the southern/central High Plains into mid-next week.
Little to no precipitation is expected for much of the Plains for
the forecast period.
...Day 3/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity...
West-northwest winds will strengthen ahead of an approaching cold
front and amid dry downslope flow, likely resulting in
elevated/critical fire weather conditions across much of west Texas
into eastern New Mexico. Elevated to locally critical conditions may
extend into the western Hill country and north Texas as boundary
layer mixing routinely extends farther east than longer-range
forecast guidance indicates. The cold front is forecast to arrive in
the evening with breezy/gusty north-northeast winds and no
precipitation, but temperatures will cool and RH will increase with
the frontal passage.
...Day 5/Monday - Day 8/Thursday: southern/central Plains...
Warm/dry conditions will continue on the southern/central Plains
early into late-next week. Downslope flow will mostly continue on
the southern/central High Plains with occasional increases as jets
pass through the background flow. A 40% area was added on Day
5/Monday across northeast New Mexico, southeast Colorado, and the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to reflect this potential. While the
downslope early next week is unlikely to be as strong as this
week's, it will be sufficient for at least locally elevated
conditions on portions of the southern/central High Plains over
multiple days. Additionally, the continued curing of fuels coupled
with the potential of elevated/critical winds/RH in a multi-day
event will be monitored going forward with additional probabilities
likely needed in subsequent outlooks.
..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MS/TN/OH VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS COASTAL
NC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur
through this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Southeast, and late
tonight across portions of coastal North Carolina.
...MS/OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast...
The primary changes to the Marginal Risk have been to clear areas
behind the low-topped convective line and cold front, and to expand
northeastward somewhat based on where recent HRRR/RRFS guidance
maintains a low-topped but well-defined frontal band with potential
for localized strong/damaging gusts.
A line of low-topped convection has developed along a cold front and
is moving eastward across parts of IL and southeast MO this
afternoon. Despite very weak to negligible buoyancy, very strong
low-level flow/shear (with 50+ kt at 1 km AGL per regional VWPs) has
supported occasional gusts of 40-55 mph and isolated wind-damage
reports along this line. Forcing related to a strong mid/upper-level
shortwave trough moving quickly eastward across the region will help
to sustain a low-topped frontal band into this evening, which may be
capable of producing sporadic strong/damaging gusts into parts of
the Ohio Valley.
Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest that gusty winds associated with the
frontal band may spread across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
overnight, but with essentially nil buoyancy expected in this area,
confidence is currently too low to expand wind probabilities into
this area.
Farther south into parts of TN/MS/AL, somewhat greater (though still
weak) buoyancy will be in place later this afternoon into the early
evening, as 60s F dewpoints spread northward to near the TN/MS/AL
border region. A broken band of storms may develop in advance of the
front, with potential for at least marginal supercell structures and
an attendant threat of isolated damaging wind and possibly a
tornado. Any longer-lived cells may tend to merge into the
eastward-moving frontal band with time, with at least an isolated
severe threat spreading east across TN through the evening.
...Coastal NC...
No major changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across coastal
NC. See the previous discussion below for more information.
...FL Panhandle vicinity...
Cells with occasional rotation have been noted offshore of the FL
Panhandle this afternoon, though temperatures remain relatively cool
with widespread cloudiness inland. There is some potential for a
stronger cell or two to eventually approach the coast or develop
slightly inland, but lingering near-surface stability may tend to
limit the severe threat across this area.
..Dean.. 12/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025/
...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level shortwave trough with attendant 70-90
kt mid-level jet will advance quickly eastward today across the
Upper Midwest into the MS/OH/TN Valleys. An associated deep surface
low over northern MN this morning is forecast to continue developing
northeastward into Ontario/Quebec through tonight, with a trailing
cold front forecast to sweep east-southeastward over much of the
mid/lower MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast. Low-level
moisture return ahead of the cold front remains quite limited,
except for parts of MS/AL where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are
beginning to spread inland. Even so, wind fields remain quite
favorable for thunderstorm organization, with ample low-level and
deep-layer shear present. Current expectations are for a low-topped
line of convection to further develop along the cold front through
this afternoon/evening. Although instability is expected to remain
minimal with northward extent into the OH/TN Valleys, there is still
potential for strong to severe gusts that will be convectively
enhanced beyond the already strong background gradient wind field.
Some chance for a tornado may also exist across parts of MS/AL where
greater instability/low-level moisture will reside. Given latest
observational and guidance trends, a Marginal Risk has been included
where the best potential for occasional strong to damaging winds is
apparent.
...Coastal North Carolina...
Isolated strong to locally severe convection may occur late tonight
through early Friday morning as an increasingly negative-tilt
mid-level trough and a related robust strengthening of the
deep-layer wind field approach eastern NC. The gradual modification
and erosion of continental/cold air is a key uncertainty due to
persistent surface high pressure along the East Coast into western
Atlantic. Some guidance such as the 12Z NAM may be a bit too
aggressive regarding late-night near-surface-based destabilization.
Still, the main area of concern is for the immediate NC coastal
areas/Outer Banks, where somewhat greater airmass
modification/low-level moistening should occur amid strong low-level
and deep-layer shear. If surface-based thunderstorms can form and
spread northeastward across this area, they could pose a threat for
isolated severe/damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. But, it is
also possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize
inland (including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours, although
confidence in this occurring remains low.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MS/TN/OH VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS COASTAL
NC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur
through this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Southeast, and late
tonight across portions of coastal North Carolina.
...MS/OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast...
The primary changes to the Marginal Risk have been to clear areas
behind the low-topped convective line and cold front, and to expand
northeastward somewhat based on where recent HRRR/RRFS guidance
maintains a low-topped but well-defined frontal band with potential
for localized strong/damaging gusts.
A line of low-topped convection has developed along a cold front and
is moving eastward across parts of IL and southeast MO this
afternoon. Despite very weak to negligible buoyancy, very strong
low-level flow/shear (with 50+ kt at 1 km AGL per regional VWPs) has
supported occasional gusts of 40-55 mph and isolated wind-damage
reports along this line. Forcing related to a strong mid/upper-level
shortwave trough moving quickly eastward across the region will help
to sustain a low-topped frontal band into this evening, which may be
capable of producing sporadic strong/damaging gusts into parts of
the Ohio Valley.
Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest that gusty winds associated with the
frontal band may spread across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
overnight, but with essentially nil buoyancy expected in this area,
confidence is currently too low to expand wind probabilities into
this area.
Farther south into parts of TN/MS/AL, somewhat greater (though still
weak) buoyancy will be in place later this afternoon into the early
evening, as 60s F dewpoints spread northward to near the TN/MS/AL
border region. A broken band of storms may develop in advance of the
front, with potential for at least marginal supercell structures and
an attendant threat of isolated damaging wind and possibly a
tornado. Any longer-lived cells may tend to merge into the
eastward-moving frontal band with time, with at least an isolated
severe threat spreading east across TN through the evening.
...Coastal NC...
No major changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across coastal
NC. See the previous discussion below for more information.
...FL Panhandle vicinity...
Cells with occasional rotation have been noted offshore of the FL
Panhandle this afternoon, though temperatures remain relatively cool
with widespread cloudiness inland. There is some potential for a
stronger cell or two to eventually approach the coast or develop
slightly inland, but lingering near-surface stability may tend to
limit the severe threat across this area.
..Dean.. 12/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025/
...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level shortwave trough with attendant 70-90
kt mid-level jet will advance quickly eastward today across the
Upper Midwest into the MS/OH/TN Valleys. An associated deep surface
low over northern MN this morning is forecast to continue developing
northeastward into Ontario/Quebec through tonight, with a trailing
cold front forecast to sweep east-southeastward over much of the
mid/lower MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast. Low-level
moisture return ahead of the cold front remains quite limited,
except for parts of MS/AL where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are
beginning to spread inland. Even so, wind fields remain quite
favorable for thunderstorm organization, with ample low-level and
deep-layer shear present. Current expectations are for a low-topped
line of convection to further develop along the cold front through
this afternoon/evening. Although instability is expected to remain
minimal with northward extent into the OH/TN Valleys, there is still
potential for strong to severe gusts that will be convectively
enhanced beyond the already strong background gradient wind field.
Some chance for a tornado may also exist across parts of MS/AL where
greater instability/low-level moisture will reside. Given latest
observational and guidance trends, a Marginal Risk has been included
where the best potential for occasional strong to damaging winds is
apparent.
...Coastal North Carolina...
Isolated strong to locally severe convection may occur late tonight
through early Friday morning as an increasingly negative-tilt
mid-level trough and a related robust strengthening of the
deep-layer wind field approach eastern NC. The gradual modification
and erosion of continental/cold air is a key uncertainty due to
persistent surface high pressure along the East Coast into western
Atlantic. Some guidance such as the 12Z NAM may be a bit too
aggressive regarding late-night near-surface-based destabilization.
Still, the main area of concern is for the immediate NC coastal
areas/Outer Banks, where somewhat greater airmass
modification/low-level moistening should occur amid strong low-level
and deep-layer shear. If surface-based thunderstorms can form and
spread northeastward across this area, they could pose a threat for
isolated severe/damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. But, it is
also possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize
inland (including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours, although
confidence in this occurring remains low.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...
A Critical area was added along and just east of the Front Range in
Colorado from west of Colorado Springs extending north into
southeast Wyoming. Given the strong westerly, downslope winds
(sustained 15-30 mph and gusts of 50-80 mph) and RH below 15-20%,
and this being the third day in the past week with similar
conditions, the Critical area was added. Locally critical conditions
are likely to extend farther south along the eastern slopes of the
Colorado Rockies and into portions of southeast Colorado.
The Elevated area was expanded across the southern Plains with a mix
of dry downslope and return flow expected across the region. Locally
critical conditions are likely to develop, but guidance is
inconsistent on the location and magnitude of these conditions. If
forecast guidance continues to trend drier with stronger winds, a
critical area may be necessary across portions of eastern New
Mexico, west Texas, and into western Oklahoma.
..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
Shortwave ridging aloft will break down through the day Friday and
another strong mid-level jet will move across the Rockies. In the
Plains, a broad and moderately deep surface trough will develop and
shift eastward. These features will combine to promote another
strong downslope wind regime in the immediate lee of the Rockies.
...Central/southern High Plains...
Strong downslope winds will occur in the I-25 corridor again on
Friday. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph, especially in Wyoming and
Colorado, are expected. Wind gusts of greater than 60 mph could
occur in the typically wind-prone gaps/foothills. Winds in New
Mexico will generally be 15-20 mph. As with the last downslope wind
event, RH will be uncertain during the afternoon. Higher confidence
in 15-20% exists in New Mexico. With northward extent, RH will
generally be higher, though pockets of 15-20% are at least possible.
Cloud cover near the terrain is partly driving this uncertainty.
Given the strength of winds and continued drying of fuels, elevated
to locally critical conditions are expected.
...Southern Plains...
Winds of 15-20 mph will develop by the afternoon as the surface
trough deepens. Dry return flow should foster 15-25% RH. Enhanced
winds within the lowest 2-3 km should also foster stronger wind
gusts, particularly during the afternoon/peak heating.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...
A Critical area was added along and just east of the Front Range in
Colorado from west of Colorado Springs extending north into
southeast Wyoming. Given the strong westerly, downslope winds
(sustained 15-30 mph and gusts of 50-80 mph) and RH below 15-20%,
and this being the third day in the past week with similar
conditions, the Critical area was added. Locally critical conditions
are likely to extend farther south along the eastern slopes of the
Colorado Rockies and into portions of southeast Colorado.
The Elevated area was expanded across the southern Plains with a mix
of dry downslope and return flow expected across the region. Locally
critical conditions are likely to develop, but guidance is
inconsistent on the location and magnitude of these conditions. If
forecast guidance continues to trend drier with stronger winds, a
critical area may be necessary across portions of eastern New
Mexico, west Texas, and into western Oklahoma.
..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
Shortwave ridging aloft will break down through the day Friday and
another strong mid-level jet will move across the Rockies. In the
Plains, a broad and moderately deep surface trough will develop and
shift eastward. These features will combine to promote another
strong downslope wind regime in the immediate lee of the Rockies.
...Central/southern High Plains...
Strong downslope winds will occur in the I-25 corridor again on
Friday. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph, especially in Wyoming and
Colorado, are expected. Wind gusts of greater than 60 mph could
occur in the typically wind-prone gaps/foothills. Winds in New
Mexico will generally be 15-20 mph. As with the last downslope wind
event, RH will be uncertain during the afternoon. Higher confidence
in 15-20% exists in New Mexico. With northward extent, RH will
generally be higher, though pockets of 15-20% are at least possible.
Cloud cover near the terrain is partly driving this uncertainty.
Given the strength of winds and continued drying of fuels, elevated
to locally critical conditions are expected.
...Southern Plains...
Winds of 15-20 mph will develop by the afternoon as the surface
trough deepens. Dry return flow should foster 15-25% RH. Enhanced
winds within the lowest 2-3 km should also foster stronger wind
gusts, particularly during the afternoon/peak heating.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Oregon and
northern California late Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will develop from the central
into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, with an upper trough amplifying
from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Gradual height rises
will occur over the West, with weak flow aloft across the southern
tier of states. Late in the period into Sunday morning, height falls
will begin across the Pacific Northwest with an approaching wave.
At the surface, high pressure will exist along the East Coast with
southerly winds across the western Gulf and into the southern
Plains. While some degree of low-level moisture return will occur,
another cold front will push south across the Plains behind the
developing Great Lakes system. As a result, any instability over
coastal TX/LA should remain capped.
Chances for thunderstorms will develop late in the period across the
Pacific Northwest as a plume of midlevel moisture arrives out of the
west. This moistening and warming in the 850-700 mb layer will
result in weak elevated instability sufficient for isolated
lightning.
..Jewell.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Oregon and
northern California late Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will develop from the central
into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, with an upper trough amplifying
from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Gradual height rises
will occur over the West, with weak flow aloft across the southern
tier of states. Late in the period into Sunday morning, height falls
will begin across the Pacific Northwest with an approaching wave.
At the surface, high pressure will exist along the East Coast with
southerly winds across the western Gulf and into the southern
Plains. While some degree of low-level moisture return will occur,
another cold front will push south across the Plains behind the
developing Great Lakes system. As a result, any instability over
coastal TX/LA should remain capped.
Chances for thunderstorms will develop late in the period across the
Pacific Northwest as a plume of midlevel moisture arrives out of the
west. This moistening and warming in the 850-700 mb layer will
result in weak elevated instability sufficient for isolated
lightning.
..Jewell.. 12/18/2025
Read more
MD 2259 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WEST AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0909 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Areas affected...The Eastern Dakotas into west and northwest
Minnesota
Concerning...Blizzard
Valid 181509Z - 182015Z
SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions are expected to continue across parts
of the eastern Dakotas and into parts of west/northwest MN through
early/mid afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and web cams from southeast
SD northward through the Red River Valley of the north show
widespread visibility reductions to 1/4 mile or less with some areas
experiencing white out conditions - especially across northeast ND
into northwest MN where moderate to heavy snowfall rates are
contributing to the visibility reductions under a developing snow
band. Heading through the afternoon, the strongest push of low-level
cold advection should migrate from the eastern Dakotas into southern
MN/northern IA. Although the heaviest snowfall will likely shift
eastward into northern MN through the day, light snow and persistent
strong northerly winds will continue to support blizzard conditions
through the Red River Valley through at least mid-afternoon and
possibly until around 00z. Further south/southeast, the antecedent
snow pack is not as widespread compared to locations further north,
but a combination of light to moderate snowfall and intense surface
winds (gusting between 40-50 mph) will likely contribute to areas of
blizzard conditions into west/southwest MN.
..Moore.. 12/18/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45379439 44949441 44709454 44459491 44249551 44169600
44199677 44309723 44579749 45039785 45599814 45949836
46839890 48129916 48699904 48959878 49069819 49059675
49029527 48549520 47799538 47109550 46189521 45379439
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early
Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday
night. Severe storms are not forecast.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large negative-tilt upper trough will extend from the upper Great
Lakes into the Southeast Friday morning, and will eject
northeastward across Mid Atlantic and New England late in the day.
At the surface, low pressure will move across southern Quebec, with
a cold front extending south from NY into the eastern Carolinas
Friday morning. This front will quickly push into New England by
midday and will already be off the NC Coast. Southerly surface winds
will bring 50s F dewpoints as far north as NJ ahead of the front,
with low 60s F into eastern NC and VA.
...Northeast...Eastern VA and NC...
Strong lift along the cold front will likely support a higher
reflectivity line of precipitation and possibly shallow convection
from eastern PA into MD and eastern VA/NC Friday morning, which will
rapidly move east toward the Hudson Valley and extending southward
and offshore between 15-18Z. Forecast soundings indicate a cool
boundary layer and zero SBCAPE over northern parts of the frontal
zone, with minimal SBCAPE farther south. There may be a short window
of convectively augmented wind gusts prior to the line moving
offshore, but instability, early time of day and limited lapse rates
aloft suggest minimal overall risk.
..Jewell.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early
Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday
night. Severe storms are not forecast.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large negative-tilt upper trough will extend from the upper Great
Lakes into the Southeast Friday morning, and will eject
northeastward across Mid Atlantic and New England late in the day.
At the surface, low pressure will move across southern Quebec, with
a cold front extending south from NY into the eastern Carolinas
Friday morning. This front will quickly push into New England by
midday and will already be off the NC Coast. Southerly surface winds
will bring 50s F dewpoints as far north as NJ ahead of the front,
with low 60s F into eastern NC and VA.
...Northeast...Eastern VA and NC...
Strong lift along the cold front will likely support a higher
reflectivity line of precipitation and possibly shallow convection
from eastern PA into MD and eastern VA/NC Friday morning, which will
rapidly move east toward the Hudson Valley and extending southward
and offshore between 15-18Z. Forecast soundings indicate a cool
boundary layer and zero SBCAPE over northern parts of the frontal
zone, with minimal SBCAPE farther south. There may be a short window
of convectively augmented wind gusts prior to the line moving
offshore, but instability, early time of day and limited lapse rates
aloft suggest minimal overall risk.
..Jewell.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 181700Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...
Strong sustained northwest winds of 15-40 mph gusting up to 70 mph
have spread across much of Kansas, eastern Colorado, and into
northern Oklahoma and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles this morning.
Lower RH and stronger winds are forecast to spread farther
south/east across the southern Plains today. Based on the latest
observations and high-resolution forecast guidance, the critical
area was expanded farther west/south, despite high temperatures in
the 40s to low 50s. There already appears to be one hot spot via
GOES Imagery in Graham County in northwest Kansas. Eastern portions
of the Elevated area in eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma may only
see locally elevated conditions, but the Elevated area was
maintained.
..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
A cold front will push through the Plains into the Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys today. On the western flank of the upper-trough, behind the
cold front, strong northwesterly winds will persist through the
morning and into the early/mid afternoon within the central/southern
Plains. The cold air will lag behind the actual front.
...Central/southern Plains...
Winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are probable across Kansas
into northern Oklahoma. The strongest winds will occur in Kansas
where surface temperatures will remain cooler. Despite the cold
advection, clear skies and dry air will support RH in the 15-25%
range in Texas/Oklahoma. RH in Kansas will likely be above 25% in
most areas. However, the strong winds and drying fine fuels will
still support rapid fire spread in these marginally critical RH
conditions. Critical conditions are expected where the greatest
overlap of strong surface winds and at least marginally low RH.
Near-critical conditions are possible in parts of Oklahoma and
Texas, but marginal fuels and less intense surface winds preclude
expansion of highlights into these areas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 181700Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...
Strong sustained northwest winds of 15-40 mph gusting up to 70 mph
have spread across much of Kansas, eastern Colorado, and into
northern Oklahoma and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles this morning.
Lower RH and stronger winds are forecast to spread farther
south/east across the southern Plains today. Based on the latest
observations and high-resolution forecast guidance, the critical
area was expanded farther west/south, despite high temperatures in
the 40s to low 50s. There already appears to be one hot spot via
GOES Imagery in Graham County in northwest Kansas. Eastern portions
of the Elevated area in eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma may only
see locally elevated conditions, but the Elevated area was
maintained.
..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
A cold front will push through the Plains into the Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys today. On the western flank of the upper-trough, behind the
cold front, strong northwesterly winds will persist through the
morning and into the early/mid afternoon within the central/southern
Plains. The cold air will lag behind the actual front.
...Central/southern Plains...
Winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are probable across Kansas
into northern Oklahoma. The strongest winds will occur in Kansas
where surface temperatures will remain cooler. Despite the cold
advection, clear skies and dry air will support RH in the 15-25%
range in Texas/Oklahoma. RH in Kansas will likely be above 25% in
most areas. However, the strong winds and drying fine fuels will
still support rapid fire spread in these marginally critical RH
conditions. Critical conditions are expected where the greatest
overlap of strong surface winds and at least marginally low RH.
Near-critical conditions are possible in parts of Oklahoma and
Texas, but marginal fuels and less intense surface winds preclude
expansion of highlights into these areas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 181700Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...
Strong sustained northwest winds of 15-40 mph gusting up to 70 mph
have spread across much of Kansas, eastern Colorado, and into
northern Oklahoma and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles this morning.
Lower RH and stronger winds are forecast to spread farther
south/east across the southern Plains today. Based on the latest
observations and high-resolution forecast guidance, the critical
area was expanded farther west/south, despite high temperatures in
the 40s to low 50s. There already appears to be one hot spot via
GOES Imagery in Graham County in northwest Kansas. Eastern portions
of the Elevated area in eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma may only
see locally elevated conditions, but the Elevated area was
maintained.
..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
A cold front will push through the Plains into the Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys today. On the western flank of the upper-trough, behind the
cold front, strong northwesterly winds will persist through the
morning and into the early/mid afternoon within the central/southern
Plains. The cold air will lag behind the actual front.
...Central/southern Plains...
Winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are probable across Kansas
into northern Oklahoma. The strongest winds will occur in Kansas
where surface temperatures will remain cooler. Despite the cold
advection, clear skies and dry air will support RH in the 15-25%
range in Texas/Oklahoma. RH in Kansas will likely be above 25% in
most areas. However, the strong winds and drying fine fuels will
still support rapid fire spread in these marginally critical RH
conditions. Critical conditions are expected where the greatest
overlap of strong surface winds and at least marginally low RH.
Near-critical conditions are possible in parts of Oklahoma and
Texas, but marginal fuels and less intense surface winds preclude
expansion of highlights into these areas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 2260 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 2260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois and
western Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 181644Z - 181845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A band of low-topped convection will proceed eastward
through early afternoon and may result in sporadic wind damage
across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois into western
Kentucky. Watch issuance is not expected due to the overall limited
thermodynamic environment.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KLSX shows a well-organized,
but shallow, band of convection that has developed along a strong
synoptic cold front. Latest HRRR/RAP forecast soundings are showing
minimal MLCAPE (around 100 J/kg) that is confined to the lowest few
kilometers where lapse rates near 700 mb are steep enough to allow
for some convective augmentation of precipitation along the front.
Despite the very poor thermodynamic environment, the KLSX VWP
depicts 40-50 knot flow within the lowest kilometer, which may mix
to the surface within the convective band. Although lightning
production will likely be minimal, sporadic damaging wind gusts
appear possible with this line (gusts up to 40-45 knots have already
been observed associated with the front). The limited thermodynamic
environment is not forecast to substantially improve through the
afternoon, so watch issuance is not expected with this activity.
..Moore/Gleason.. 12/18/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 38368822 37058867 36568923 36488994 36529068 36659115
36869160 37139182 37339185 38119111 39129056 39879034
40098991 39938921 39648855 39258817 38368822
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur
through this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast, and late tonight across
portions of coastal North Carolina.
...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level shortwave trough with attendant 70-90
kt mid-level jet will advance quickly eastward today across the
Upper Midwest into the MS/OH/TN Valleys. An associated deep surface
low over northern MN this morning is forecast to continue developing
northeastward into Ontario/Quebec through tonight, with a trailing
cold front forecast to sweep east-southeastward over much of the
mid/lower MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast. Low-level
moisture return ahead of the cold front remains quite limited,
except for parts of MS/AL where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are
beginning to spread inland. Even so, wind fields remain quite
favorable for thunderstorm organization, with ample low-level and
deep-layer shear present. Current expectations are for a low-topped
line of convection to further develop along the cold front through
this afternoon/evening. Although instability is expected to remain
minimal with northward extent into the OH/TN Valleys, there is still
potential for strong to severe gusts that will be convectively
enhanced beyond the already strong background gradient wind field.
Some chance for a tornado may also exist across parts of MS/AL where
greater instability/low-level moisture will reside. Given latest
observational and guidance trends, a Marginal Risk has been included
where the best potential for occasional strong to damaging winds is
apparent.
...Coastal North Carolina...
Isolated strong to locally severe convection may occur late tonight
through early Friday morning as an increasingly negative-tilt
mid-level trough and a related robust strengthening of the
deep-layer wind field approach eastern NC. The gradual modification
and erosion of continental/cold air is a key uncertainty due to
persistent surface high pressure along the East Coast into western
Atlantic. Some guidance such as the 12Z NAM may be a bit too
aggressive regarding late-night near-surface-based destabilization.
Still, the main area of concern is for the immediate NC coastal
areas/Outer Banks, where somewhat greater airmass
modification/low-level moistening should occur amid strong low-level
and deep-layer shear. If surface-based thunderstorms can form and
spread northeastward across this area, they could pose a threat for
isolated severe/damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. But, it is
also possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize
inland (including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours, although
confidence in this occurring remains low.
..Gleason/Weinman.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur
through this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast, and late tonight across
portions of coastal North Carolina.
...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level shortwave trough with attendant 70-90
kt mid-level jet will advance quickly eastward today across the
Upper Midwest into the MS/OH/TN Valleys. An associated deep surface
low over northern MN this morning is forecast to continue developing
northeastward into Ontario/Quebec through tonight, with a trailing
cold front forecast to sweep east-southeastward over much of the
mid/lower MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast. Low-level
moisture return ahead of the cold front remains quite limited,
except for parts of MS/AL where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are
beginning to spread inland. Even so, wind fields remain quite
favorable for thunderstorm organization, with ample low-level and
deep-layer shear present. Current expectations are for a low-topped
line of convection to further develop along the cold front through
this afternoon/evening. Although instability is expected to remain
minimal with northward extent into the OH/TN Valleys, there is still
potential for strong to severe gusts that will be convectively
enhanced beyond the already strong background gradient wind field.
Some chance for a tornado may also exist across parts of MS/AL where
greater instability/low-level moisture will reside. Given latest
observational and guidance trends, a Marginal Risk has been included
where the best potential for occasional strong to damaging winds is
apparent.
...Coastal North Carolina...
Isolated strong to locally severe convection may occur late tonight
through early Friday morning as an increasingly negative-tilt
mid-level trough and a related robust strengthening of the
deep-layer wind field approach eastern NC. The gradual modification
and erosion of continental/cold air is a key uncertainty due to
persistent surface high pressure along the East Coast into western
Atlantic. Some guidance such as the 12Z NAM may be a bit too
aggressive regarding late-night near-surface-based destabilization.
Still, the main area of concern is for the immediate NC coastal
areas/Outer Banks, where somewhat greater airmass
modification/low-level moistening should occur amid strong low-level
and deep-layer shear. If surface-based thunderstorms can form and
spread northeastward across this area, they could pose a threat for
isolated severe/damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. But, it is
also possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize
inland (including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours, although
confidence in this occurring remains low.
..Gleason/Weinman.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur
through this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast, and late tonight across
portions of coastal North Carolina.
...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level shortwave trough with attendant 70-90
kt mid-level jet will advance quickly eastward today across the
Upper Midwest into the MS/OH/TN Valleys. An associated deep surface
low over northern MN this morning is forecast to continue developing
northeastward into Ontario/Quebec through tonight, with a trailing
cold front forecast to sweep east-southeastward over much of the
mid/lower MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast. Low-level
moisture return ahead of the cold front remains quite limited,
except for parts of MS/AL where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are
beginning to spread inland. Even so, wind fields remain quite
favorable for thunderstorm organization, with ample low-level and
deep-layer shear present. Current expectations are for a low-topped
line of convection to further develop along the cold front through
this afternoon/evening. Although instability is expected to remain
minimal with northward extent into the OH/TN Valleys, there is still
potential for strong to severe gusts that will be convectively
enhanced beyond the already strong background gradient wind field.
Some chance for a tornado may also exist across parts of MS/AL where
greater instability/low-level moisture will reside. Given latest
observational and guidance trends, a Marginal Risk has been included
where the best potential for occasional strong to damaging winds is
apparent.
...Coastal North Carolina...
Isolated strong to locally severe convection may occur late tonight
through early Friday morning as an increasingly negative-tilt
mid-level trough and a related robust strengthening of the
deep-layer wind field approach eastern NC. The gradual modification
and erosion of continental/cold air is a key uncertainty due to
persistent surface high pressure along the East Coast into western
Atlantic. Some guidance such as the 12Z NAM may be a bit too
aggressive regarding late-night near-surface-based destabilization.
Still, the main area of concern is for the immediate NC coastal
areas/Outer Banks, where somewhat greater airmass
modification/low-level moistening should occur amid strong low-level
and deep-layer shear. If surface-based thunderstorms can form and
spread northeastward across this area, they could pose a threat for
isolated severe/damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. But, it is
also possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize
inland (including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours, although
confidence in this occurring remains low.
..Gleason/Weinman.. 12/18/2025
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
While organized severe potential may be limited today, isolated
strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the Lower Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and evening and/or across the
Carolinas late tonight.
...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
A prominent upper-level trough centered over the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest early this morning will continue to amplify and
spread east-southeastward, taking on a more negative tilt tonight
over the Midwest/Cumberland Plateau with intense 12-hr height falls
on the order of 210m. A robust low/mid-level wind field will
accompany this trough, especially into tonight with 60-80 kt winds
within the lowest 1-3km AGL coincident with the modifying warm
sector. But, only limited destabilization is expected ahead of the
front, with forecast soundings generally exhibiting meager
instability. While buoyancy will be weak, a strongly forced band of
frontal convection is expected to develop and spread eastward later
this afternoon into evening. Current thinking is a stable boundary
layer will minimize the risk of severe wind gusts near the surface,
but somewhat taller/more sustained storms could occur across the
Tennessee Valley including Middle/eastern Tennessee and much of
Alabama into parts of Georgia, with at least some convectively
enhanced wind gust potential, possibly to near-severe levels.
...Carolinas...
Some strong/locally severe storms could occur late tonight through
the predawn/early morning hours of Friday, attributable to an
increasingly negative-tilt upper-level trough and a related robust
strengthening of the deep-layer wind field. The abatement and
modification of continental/cold air inland is a key uncertainty,
and some guidance such as 00z/06z NAM, may be a bit too aggressive,
albeit modest/weak overall, regarding late-night near-surface-based
destabilization. Primary concern is for the immediate coastal
areas/Outer Banks where somewhat greater airmass
modification/low-level moistening is more plausible. But it is also
possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize inland
(including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours..
..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/18/2025
Read more
