Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... While organized severe potential may be limited today, isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and evening and/or across the Carolinas late tonight. ...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... A prominent upper-level trough centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest early this morning will continue to amplify and spread east-southeastward, taking on a more negative tilt tonight over the Midwest/Cumberland Plateau with intense 12-hr height falls on the order of 210m. A robust low/mid-level wind field will accompany this trough, especially into tonight with 60-80 kt winds within the lowest 1-3km AGL coincident with the modifying warm sector. But, only limited destabilization is expected ahead of the front, with forecast soundings generally exhibiting meager instability. While buoyancy will be weak, a strongly forced band of frontal convection is expected to develop and spread eastward later this afternoon into evening. Current thinking is a stable boundary layer will minimize the risk of severe wind gusts near the surface, but somewhat taller/more sustained storms could occur across the Tennessee Valley including Middle/eastern Tennessee and much of Alabama into parts of Georgia, with at least some convectively enhanced wind gust potential, possibly to near-severe levels. ...Carolinas... Some strong/locally severe storms could occur late tonight through the predawn/early morning hours of Friday, attributable to an increasingly negative-tilt upper-level trough and a related robust strengthening of the deep-layer wind field. The abatement and modification of continental/cold air inland is a key uncertainty, and some guidance such as 00z/06z NAM, may be a bit too aggressive, albeit modest/weak overall, regarding late-night near-surface-based destabilization. Primary concern is for the immediate coastal areas/Outer Banks where somewhat greater airmass modification/low-level moistening is more plausible. But it is also possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize inland (including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours.. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/18/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An expansive area of high pressure will build across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and push a frontal zone near the Gulf Coast. After this, ridging will build across the central CONUS and allow rich moisture to advance well inland from the southern Plains to the Midwest by D7/Wednesday. However, building heights aloft will result in minimal if any forcing for thunderstorm development during this period. Even beyond day 7, model guidance shows decent agreement in a modest ridge breakdown without much severe weather concern. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An expansive area of high pressure will build across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and push a frontal zone near the Gulf Coast. After this, ridging will build across the central CONUS and allow rich moisture to advance well inland from the southern Plains to the Midwest by D7/Wednesday. However, building heights aloft will result in minimal if any forcing for thunderstorm development during this period. Even beyond day 7, model guidance shows decent agreement in a modest ridge breakdown without much severe weather concern. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An expansive area of high pressure will build across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and push a frontal zone near the Gulf Coast. After this, ridging will build across the central CONUS and allow rich moisture to advance well inland from the southern Plains to the Midwest by D7/Wednesday. However, building heights aloft will result in minimal if any forcing for thunderstorm development during this period. Even beyond day 7, model guidance shows decent agreement in a modest ridge breakdown without much severe weather concern. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Washington and far northwest Oregon on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak over the northern Plains Saturday morning will move east as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Great Lakes. As this occurs, a surface cold front will move from the Plains Saturday morning to near the Appalachians and extending back into East Texas by early Sunday morning. ...East Texas into Louisiana... Low-level moisture return will bring low to mid 60s dewpoints northward across East Texas and Louisiana on Saturday and Saturday evening. Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop. However forcing will be minimal with rising heights aloft and a weakening low-level jet. In addition, forecast soundings show warm mid-level temperatures which will likely keep the airmass capped. Therefore, thunderstorms are not expected across East Texas and Louisiana on Saturday night/early Sunday. ...Pacific Northwest.. Persistent onshore flow with cool temperatures aloft will result in persistent convective activity across western Washington and northwest Oregon on Saturday. Forecast soundings show weak instability and equilibrium levels near or slightly above -20C which may support some isolated thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 12/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Washington and far northwest Oregon on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak over the northern Plains Saturday morning will move east as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Great Lakes. As this occurs, a surface cold front will move from the Plains Saturday morning to near the Appalachians and extending back into East Texas by early Sunday morning. ...East Texas into Louisiana... Low-level moisture return will bring low to mid 60s dewpoints northward across East Texas and Louisiana on Saturday and Saturday evening. Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop. However forcing will be minimal with rising heights aloft and a weakening low-level jet. In addition, forecast soundings show warm mid-level temperatures which will likely keep the airmass capped. Therefore, thunderstorms are not expected across East Texas and Louisiana on Saturday night/early Sunday. ...Pacific Northwest.. Persistent onshore flow with cool temperatures aloft will result in persistent convective activity across western Washington and northwest Oregon on Saturday. Forecast soundings show weak instability and equilibrium levels near or slightly above -20C which may support some isolated thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 12/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday night. ...Discussion... A line of thunderstorms is expected along a strong cold front extending from eastern New York to eastern North Carolina Friday morning. This line of storms is expected to be mostly elevated from Pennsylvania northward. From northern Virginia southward, some weak instability is possible ahead of the front as upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints advect northward. Forcing will be weaker farther south, and 00Z CAM guidance supports this with a more broken line of storms that far south. If a more consolidated, strong frontal band can continue where the near 60s dewpoints are present, a few isolated strong wind gusts may occur for a few hours in the morning before the front moves offshore. In the wake of this front, benign conditions are expected across most of the CONUS on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible across western Washington and far northwest Oregon, but this thunderstorm activity should remain weak. ..Bentley.. 12/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday night. ...Discussion... A line of thunderstorms is expected along a strong cold front extending from eastern New York to eastern North Carolina Friday morning. This line of storms is expected to be mostly elevated from Pennsylvania northward. From northern Virginia southward, some weak instability is possible ahead of the front as upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints advect northward. Forcing will be weaker farther south, and 00Z CAM guidance supports this with a more broken line of storms that far south. If a more consolidated, strong frontal band can continue where the near 60s dewpoints are present, a few isolated strong wind gusts may occur for a few hours in the morning before the front moves offshore. In the wake of this front, benign conditions are expected across most of the CONUS on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible across western Washington and far northwest Oregon, but this thunderstorm activity should remain weak. ..Bentley.. 12/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday night. ...Discussion... A line of thunderstorms is expected along a strong cold front extending from eastern New York to eastern North Carolina Friday morning. This line of storms is expected to be mostly elevated from Pennsylvania northward. From northern Virginia southward, some weak instability is possible ahead of the front as upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints advect northward. Forcing will be weaker farther south, and 00Z CAM guidance supports this with a more broken line of storms that far south. If a more consolidated, strong frontal band can continue where the near 60s dewpoints are present, a few isolated strong wind gusts may occur for a few hours in the morning before the front moves offshore. In the wake of this front, benign conditions are expected across most of the CONUS on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible across western Washington and far northwest Oregon, but this thunderstorm activity should remain weak. ..Bentley.. 12/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential will be limited today, but isolated strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...Lower Ohio/TN Valleys... Strong midlevel trough is advancing quickly across the northern/central High Plains late this evening. This feature is forecast to progress into the MS Valley by late afternoon then eject negative-tilt into the OH Valley during the overnight period. Intense 12hr height falls, on the order of 210m, will spread across the OH Valley and this is expected to aid large-scale forcing along a sharp cold front that will surge into IN/KY/TN by 19/00z. Poor destabilization is expected ahead of the front and forecast soundings exhibit meager instability, and this is mostly with an elevated parcel. While buoyancy will be weak, a strongly forced band of frontal convection is expected to develop and spread east. Given the level of parcel ascent, current thinking is a stable boundary layer will minimize the risk of severe gusts near the surface. Even so, isolated strong winds may accompany some portions of the convective line, but the risk of severe gusts in excess of 50kt appears too low to warrant a MRGL risk at this time. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential will be limited today, but isolated strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...Lower Ohio/TN Valleys... Strong midlevel trough is advancing quickly across the northern/central High Plains late this evening. This feature is forecast to progress into the MS Valley by late afternoon then eject negative-tilt into the OH Valley during the overnight period. Intense 12hr height falls, on the order of 210m, will spread across the OH Valley and this is expected to aid large-scale forcing along a sharp cold front that will surge into IN/KY/TN by 19/00z. Poor destabilization is expected ahead of the front and forecast soundings exhibit meager instability, and this is mostly with an elevated parcel. While buoyancy will be weak, a strongly forced band of frontal convection is expected to develop and spread east. Given the level of parcel ascent, current thinking is a stable boundary layer will minimize the risk of severe gusts near the surface. Even so, isolated strong winds may accompany some portions of the convective line, but the risk of severe gusts in excess of 50kt appears too low to warrant a MRGL risk at this time. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential will be limited today, but isolated strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...Lower Ohio/TN Valleys... Strong midlevel trough is advancing quickly across the northern/central High Plains late this evening. This feature is forecast to progress into the MS Valley by late afternoon then eject negative-tilt into the OH Valley during the overnight period. Intense 12hr height falls, on the order of 210m, will spread across the OH Valley and this is expected to aid large-scale forcing along a sharp cold front that will surge into IN/KY/TN by 19/00z. Poor destabilization is expected ahead of the front and forecast soundings exhibit meager instability, and this is mostly with an elevated parcel. While buoyancy will be weak, a strongly forced band of frontal convection is expected to develop and spread east. Given the level of parcel ascent, current thinking is a stable boundary layer will minimize the risk of severe gusts near the surface. Even so, isolated strong winds may accompany some portions of the convective line, but the risk of severe gusts in excess of 50kt appears too low to warrant a MRGL risk at this time. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging aloft will break down through the day Friday and another strong mid-level jet will move across the Rockies. In the Plains, a broad and moderately deep surface trough will develop and shift eastward. These features will combine to promote another strong downslope wind regime in the immediate lee of the Rockies. ...Central/southern High Plains... Strong downslope winds will occur in the I-25 corridor again on Friday. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph, especially in Wyoming and Colorado, are expected. Wind gusts of greater than 60 mph could occur in the typically wind-prone gaps/foothills. Winds in New Mexico will generally be 15-20 mph. As with the last downslope wind event, RH will be uncertain during the afternoon. Higher confidence in 15-20% exists in New Mexico. With northward extent, RH will generally be higher, though pockets of 15-20% are at least possible. Cloud cover near the terrain is partly driving this uncertainty. Given the strength of winds and continued drying of fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ...Southern Plains... Winds of 15-20 mph will develop by the afternoon as the surface trough deepens. Dry return flow should foster 15-25% RH. Enhanced winds within the lowest 2-3 km should also foster stronger wind gusts, particularly during the afternoon/peak heating. ..Wendt.. 12/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging aloft will break down through the day Friday and another strong mid-level jet will move across the Rockies. In the Plains, a broad and moderately deep surface trough will develop and shift eastward. These features will combine to promote another strong downslope wind regime in the immediate lee of the Rockies. ...Central/southern High Plains... Strong downslope winds will occur in the I-25 corridor again on Friday. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph, especially in Wyoming and Colorado, are expected. Wind gusts of greater than 60 mph could occur in the typically wind-prone gaps/foothills. Winds in New Mexico will generally be 15-20 mph. As with the last downslope wind event, RH will be uncertain during the afternoon. Higher confidence in 15-20% exists in New Mexico. With northward extent, RH will generally be higher, though pockets of 15-20% are at least possible. Cloud cover near the terrain is partly driving this uncertainty. Given the strength of winds and continued drying of fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ...Southern Plains... Winds of 15-20 mph will develop by the afternoon as the surface trough deepens. Dry return flow should foster 15-25% RH. Enhanced winds within the lowest 2-3 km should also foster stronger wind gusts, particularly during the afternoon/peak heating. ..Wendt.. 12/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging aloft will break down through the day Friday and another strong mid-level jet will move across the Rockies. In the Plains, a broad and moderately deep surface trough will develop and shift eastward. These features will combine to promote another strong downslope wind regime in the immediate lee of the Rockies. ...Central/southern High Plains... Strong downslope winds will occur in the I-25 corridor again on Friday. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph, especially in Wyoming and Colorado, are expected. Wind gusts of greater than 60 mph could occur in the typically wind-prone gaps/foothills. Winds in New Mexico will generally be 15-20 mph. As with the last downslope wind event, RH will be uncertain during the afternoon. Higher confidence in 15-20% exists in New Mexico. With northward extent, RH will generally be higher, though pockets of 15-20% are at least possible. Cloud cover near the terrain is partly driving this uncertainty. Given the strength of winds and continued drying of fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ...Southern Plains... Winds of 15-20 mph will develop by the afternoon as the surface trough deepens. Dry return flow should foster 15-25% RH. Enhanced winds within the lowest 2-3 km should also foster stronger wind gusts, particularly during the afternoon/peak heating. ..Wendt.. 12/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... A cold front will push through the Plains into the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys today. On the western flank of the upper-trough, behind the cold front, strong northwesterly winds will persist through the morning and into the early/mid afternoon within the central/southern Plains. The cold air will lag behind the actual front. ...Central/southern Plains... Winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are probable across Kansas into northern Oklahoma. The strongest winds will occur in Kansas where surface temperatures will remain cooler. Despite the cold advection, clear skies and dry air will support RH in the 15-25% range in Texas/Oklahoma. RH in Kansas will likely be above 25% in most areas. However, the strong winds and drying fine fuels will still support rapid fire spread in these marginally critical RH conditions. Critical conditions are expected where the greatest overlap of strong surface winds and at least marginally low RH. Near-critical conditions are possible in parts of Oklahoma and Texas, but marginal fuels and less intense surface winds preclude expansion of highlights into these areas. ..Wendt.. 12/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... A cold front will push through the Plains into the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys today. On the western flank of the upper-trough, behind the cold front, strong northwesterly winds will persist through the morning and into the early/mid afternoon within the central/southern Plains. The cold air will lag behind the actual front. ...Central/southern Plains... Winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are probable across Kansas into northern Oklahoma. The strongest winds will occur in Kansas where surface temperatures will remain cooler. Despite the cold advection, clear skies and dry air will support RH in the 15-25% range in Texas/Oklahoma. RH in Kansas will likely be above 25% in most areas. However, the strong winds and drying fine fuels will still support rapid fire spread in these marginally critical RH conditions. Critical conditions are expected where the greatest overlap of strong surface winds and at least marginally low RH. Near-critical conditions are possible in parts of Oklahoma and Texas, but marginal fuels and less intense surface winds preclude expansion of highlights into these areas. ..Wendt.. 12/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... A cold front will push through the Plains into the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys today. On the western flank of the upper-trough, behind the cold front, strong northwesterly winds will persist through the morning and into the early/mid afternoon within the central/southern Plains. The cold air will lag behind the actual front. ...Central/southern Plains... Winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are probable across Kansas into northern Oklahoma. The strongest winds will occur in Kansas where surface temperatures will remain cooler. Despite the cold advection, clear skies and dry air will support RH in the 15-25% range in Texas/Oklahoma. RH in Kansas will likely be above 25% in most areas. However, the strong winds and drying fine fuels will still support rapid fire spread in these marginally critical RH conditions. Critical conditions are expected where the greatest overlap of strong surface winds and at least marginally low RH. Near-critical conditions are possible in parts of Oklahoma and Texas, but marginal fuels and less intense surface winds preclude expansion of highlights into these areas. ..Wendt.. 12/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0621 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along portions of the TX/LA Gulf coasts tonight. ...01z Update... Weak, southern-stream short-wave trough is advancing off the south TX coast early this evening. A few thunderstorms linger near the center of a weak midlevel circulation around the Corpus Christi region; however, the most concentrated deep convection is now focused offshore and should continue to be shunted east ahead of the short wave. Isolated thunderstorms may eventually develop ahead of this feature downstream across southeast LA later tonight, but negligible buoyancy currently exists on the 00z sounding from LIX. By the end of the period, adequate destabilization should materialize across this region such that lightning is possible with deep convection, primarily after 08-09z. ..Darrow.. 12/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0621 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along portions of the TX/LA Gulf coasts tonight. ...01z Update... Weak, southern-stream short-wave trough is advancing off the south TX coast early this evening. A few thunderstorms linger near the center of a weak midlevel circulation around the Corpus Christi region; however, the most concentrated deep convection is now focused offshore and should continue to be shunted east ahead of the short wave. Isolated thunderstorms may eventually develop ahead of this feature downstream across southeast LA later tonight, but negligible buoyancy currently exists on the 00z sounding from LIX. By the end of the period, adequate destabilization should materialize across this region such that lightning is possible with deep convection, primarily after 08-09z. ..Darrow.. 12/18/2025 Read more