Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A powerful upper trough will move from the Plains into the MS Valley on Thursday, taking on a negative tilt late in the period as it moves across the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes. Strong cooling aloft will occur with the greatest large-scale ascent across the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, low pressure will move from Upper MI eastward into southwest Quebec, with a cold front trailing south of the low and reaching the northern Gulf of America overnight. Ahead of the front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as the OH River, with lower 60s F possible near the ArkLaMiss. Substantial clouds and areas of precipitation will limit heating over most of the area, and SBCAPE will be quite low. However, lift immediately along the cold front should at least result in a low-topped forced line of convection. SBCAPE will be low even south of I-40, despite higher dewpoints as temperatures aloft will be warmer. Despite these mitigating issues, favorable large-scale ascent during the daytime along with at least marginal instability and strong flow off the surface may yield locally strong to damaging gusts with activity along the cold front. ..Jewell.. 12/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A powerful upper trough will move from the Plains into the MS Valley on Thursday, taking on a negative tilt late in the period as it moves across the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes. Strong cooling aloft will occur with the greatest large-scale ascent across the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, low pressure will move from Upper MI eastward into southwest Quebec, with a cold front trailing south of the low and reaching the northern Gulf of America overnight. Ahead of the front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as the OH River, with lower 60s F possible near the ArkLaMiss. Substantial clouds and areas of precipitation will limit heating over most of the area, and SBCAPE will be quite low. However, lift immediately along the cold front should at least result in a low-topped forced line of convection. SBCAPE will be low even south of I-40, despite higher dewpoints as temperatures aloft will be warmer. Despite these mitigating issues, favorable large-scale ascent during the daytime along with at least marginal instability and strong flow off the surface may yield locally strong to damaging gusts with activity along the cold front. ..Jewell.. 12/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments required - mainly to better align the Elevated risk area with where downslope winds are forecast to be the strongest within CO Front Range. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the potential for very strong (60-75 mph) wind gusts within the immediate eastern slopes of the Laramie Mountains in southeast WY and along the northern and central Front Range. RH reductions within this regime remain somewhat uncertain with ensemble guidance showing only a weak signal for sub-20% RH for northern and central CO. However, the magnitude of the winds coupled with drying fine fuels may compensate for the marginal RH values and support the potential for fire spread, warranting the westward expansion. A southward expansion along the Sacramento Mountains in NM was also made where downslope warming/drying should promote RH reductions into the 15-20% range as winds increase to 15-20 mph during the late afternoon hours. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... The northwestern upper trough will move into the central Rockies on Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds will be roughly perpendicular to the terrain. In the Plains, a surface low will develop/deepen in the northern Plains with a trough extending into the central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Confidence in the degree of RH reduction is not overly high, but given the favorable downslope wind pattern, pockets of 15-25% are possible. With fuels continuing to dry in the region, they will be at least marginally receptive to fire spread. Winds are the more confident portion of the forecast. 15-20 mph can be expected for most areas, especially the eastern Plains of Colorado. Within terrain-favored areas, 20-25 mph is more probable along with even higher wind gusts. These stronger winds will promote elevated fire weather despite somewhat limited RH reduction and fuel receptiveness. ...Southern High Plains... RH of 10-20% can be expected within the region as temperatures should be warmer than farther north. Winds should still be relatively strong, particularly near the terrain. 15-20 mph will be most common with terrain gaps likely being higher. Elevated meteorological conditions could reach into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, but current fuel indices suggest limited risk for ignitions/spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over much of the northern Rockies on Wednesday, with a greater probability across the Texas Coastal Plain. Sporadic activity may also occur Wednesday night into the mid to lower Mississippi Valley. Severe storms are not forecast. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough and cold front will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies on Wednesday, with substantial cooling aloft and strong winds. Daytime heating will lead to areas of weak instability, with scattered lightning possible especially over ID and western MT/WY. Overnight, a strong cold front will surge south across the Great Plains, and sporadic lightning may occur with elevated/weak convection. Southeast of this system, a low-latitude wave will be located over southern TX, with cool midlevel temperatures present. This will aid destabilization despite relatively cool surface temperatures. Dewpoints in the 60s F will be common across the Coastal Plain and perhaps toward the ArkLaTex late, however, given the surface high to the east, low-level trajectories will favor cool surface temperatures and elevated instability in most areas. ..Jewell.. 12/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z A trio of targeted Elevated risk areas has been introduced for portions of the central to southern High Plains. Several days of dry conditions with intermittent downslope flow has allowed for steady fine fuel drying along the High Plains with ERCs increasing to the 65-75th percentiles for portions of eastern CO and NM. The continued deepening of a surface trough over the Plains today will induce strengthening winds through the afternoon with some regions experiencing sustained winds of 15-25 mph (gusting to 30 mph at times). 16 UTC surface observations show RH reductions already trending lower than anticipated by morning guidance ahead of and behind lingering cloud cover. With further RH reductions (into the 15-25% range) likely amid daytime heating, areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable for at least a few hours this afternoon. The most favorable overlap of drying fuels, strong winds, and dry conditions should reside across southeast WY/northeast CO, southeast CO into northeast NM, and portions of southeast NM. ..Moore.. 12/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a strong upper trough moves into the Northwest, the upper ridge across much of the CONUS will begin to flatten today. Surface high pressure will generally remain in the Southeast. A weak surface trough/front will move eastward through the Plains. Some locally dry and breezy conditions are possible in the central/southern High Plains. Wind speeds will be marginal outside of a few terrain-favored zones. Locally elevated conditions could occur, but greater fire weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A line of storms will likely be ongoing from portions of the Northeast into the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Friday morning. If sufficient destabilization can occur, a few isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible before the front moves offshore. In the wake of this cold front, an extended period of low severe potential begins. By Saturday afternoon, moisture is forecast to advect inland across East Texas and Louisiana, but no thunderstorm activity is expected. 60s dewpoints will remain along the Gulf Coast from Texas to inland Louisiana and Mississippi through the weekend and into early next week. However, building heights aloft will limit thunderstorm potential for much of the extended. Even if some thunderstorms occur early next week, as indicated by the 00Z ECMWF across MS/TN, they will likely remain south of the stronger mid-level flow and without strong destabilization, will be unlikely to be severe. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the mid-level trough across the central Plains early Thursday and emerge across the Ohio Valley by Thursday afternoon/evening. This trough will continue east and take on a more neutral to perhaps negative tilt by early Friday across the East Coast. A strong (sub 990mb) surface low will move from the Upper Midwest to southern Quebec with a trailing cold front sweeping from the Midwest to the East Coast. ...OH/TN Valleys... A line of convection will likely be in its infancy along the cold front in Illinois and Missouri at the beginning of the period. Low-level moisture will continue to advect north ahead of this cold front and result in some weak destabilization. The mid-50s dewpoints will likely struggle to make it north of the Ohio River given the snowpack across the region, despite very strong low-level moisture advection. However, south of this snowpack there will likely be a zone where the strong forcing along the cold front can overcome only marginally unstable surface parcels. This strongly forced convective line amid 60-70 knots of background flow (as low as 1km) will support isolated damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. Greater instability is expected south of the TN/MS/AL border where upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are forecast. However, despite the more favorable thermodynamics, the upper-level forcing will be weaker. Therefore, it is unclear whether the line of storms will continue that far south, and additional convection ahead of the front will likely struggle given the weak lapse rates/minimal heating. ...Eastern Virginia into North Carolina... Late in the period, as the cold front crosses the Appalachians, moisture is expected to advect inland across eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. A strong wind field will continue across the region, and if sufficient instability can develop, a damaging wind threat could materialize early Friday morning. However, the degree of destabilization remains uncertain and will depend on how quickly the cold air damming can erode. A solution such as the 00Z NAM (with 60F dewpoints into the DelMarva) would certainly result in some threat, but most other guidance keeps dewpoints in the mid 50s with minimal instability. Trends will be monitored closely in this region in later outlooks and probabilities may be added if the forecast trends towards greater instability. ..Bentley.. 12/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the mid-level trough across the central Plains early Thursday and emerge across the Ohio Valley by Thursday afternoon/evening. This trough will continue east and take on a more neutral to perhaps negative tilt by early Friday across the East Coast. A strong (sub 990mb) surface low will move from the Upper Midwest to southern Quebec with a trailing cold front sweeping from the Midwest to the East Coast. ...OH/TN Valleys... A line of convection will likely be in its infancy along the cold front in Illinois and Missouri at the beginning of the period. Low-level moisture will continue to advect north ahead of this cold front and result in some weak destabilization. The mid-50s dewpoints will likely struggle to make it north of the Ohio River given the snowpack across the region, despite very strong low-level moisture advection. However, south of this snowpack there will likely be a zone where the strong forcing along the cold front can overcome only marginally unstable surface parcels. This strongly forced convective line amid 60-70 knots of background flow (as low as 1km) will support isolated damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. Greater instability is expected south of the TN/MS/AL border where upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are forecast. However, despite the more favorable thermodynamics, the upper-level forcing will be weaker. Therefore, it is unclear whether the line of storms will continue that far south, and additional convection ahead of the front will likely struggle given the weak lapse rates/minimal heating. ...Eastern Virginia into North Carolina... Late in the period, as the cold front crosses the Appalachians, moisture is expected to advect inland across eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. A strong wind field will continue across the region, and if sufficient instability can develop, a damaging wind threat could materialize early Friday morning. However, the degree of destabilization remains uncertain and will depend on how quickly the cold air damming can erode. A solution such as the 00Z NAM (with 60F dewpoints into the DelMarva) would certainly result in some threat, but most other guidance keeps dewpoints in the mid 50s with minimal instability. Trends will be monitored closely in this region in later outlooks and probabilities may be added if the forecast trends towards greater instability. ..Bentley.. 12/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain and the northern Rockies vicinity Wednesday morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning from the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak and associated mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will amplify as it advances east through the day. A very strong surface low (~985mb) will move from British Columbia to the Upper Midwest through the period. A strong cold front will extend southwest from this surface low. This surface low will begin the day in the vicinity of northern Idaho/eastern Washington into eastern Oregon. It will move quickly southeast through the day. It will move across the Plains Wednesday evening and into the Midwest by early Thursday morning. ...Northern Rockies Vicinity... A line of shallow convection will likely exist along a strong cold front at 12Z Wednesday somewhere across eastern OR/WA into northern Idaho. Forecast soundings show only limited instability, but with additional forcing along the front, some stronger cores within the line may deepen enough for some lightning generation. In addition, a very strong wind profile is present which may result in some gusty winds within this line. Very weak instability is the primary limiting factor for a Marginal Risk. ...Midwest... Moisture will advect northward from the southern Plains and into the Ozarks Wednesday and Wednesday evening. At the very end of the Day 2 period (09-12Z Thu) this moisture is expected to interact with the rapidly advancing cold front. Instability will be weak, but sufficient for storm development along the frontal zone by 12Z Thursday. In addition, a low-level jet will rapidly strengthen Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning. Isentropic ascent within this low-level jet axis, combined with increasing elevated instability, may be sufficient for isolated storm development between 06Z and 12Z. ..Bentley.. 12/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain and the northern Rockies vicinity Wednesday morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning from the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak and associated mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will amplify as it advances east through the day. A very strong surface low (~985mb) will move from British Columbia to the Upper Midwest through the period. A strong cold front will extend southwest from this surface low. This surface low will begin the day in the vicinity of northern Idaho/eastern Washington into eastern Oregon. It will move quickly southeast through the day. It will move across the Plains Wednesday evening and into the Midwest by early Thursday morning. ...Northern Rockies Vicinity... A line of shallow convection will likely exist along a strong cold front at 12Z Wednesday somewhere across eastern OR/WA into northern Idaho. Forecast soundings show only limited instability, but with additional forcing along the front, some stronger cores within the line may deepen enough for some lightning generation. In addition, a very strong wind profile is present which may result in some gusty winds within this line. Very weak instability is the primary limiting factor for a Marginal Risk. ...Midwest... Moisture will advect northward from the southern Plains and into the Ozarks Wednesday and Wednesday evening. At the very end of the Day 2 period (09-12Z Thu) this moisture is expected to interact with the rapidly advancing cold front. Instability will be weak, but sufficient for storm development along the frontal zone by 12Z Thursday. In addition, a low-level jet will rapidly strengthen Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning. Isentropic ascent within this low-level jet axis, combined with increasing elevated instability, may be sufficient for isolated storm development between 06Z and 12Z. ..Bentley.. 12/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The northwestern upper trough will move into the central Rockies on Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds will be roughly perpendicular to the terrain. In the Plains, a surface low will develop/deepen in the northern Plains with a trough extending into the central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Confidence in the degree of RH reduction is not overly high, but given the favorable downslope wind pattern, pockets of 15-25% are possible. With fuels continuing to dry in the region, they will be at least marginally receptive to fire spread. Winds are the more confident portion of the forecast. 15-20 mph can be expected for most areas, especially the eastern Plains of Colorado. Within terrain-favored areas, 20-25 mph is more probable along with even higher wind gusts. These stronger winds will promote elevated fire weather despite somewhat limited RH reduction and fuel receptiveness. ...Southern High Plains... RH of 10-20% can be expected within the region as temperatures should be warmer than farther north. Winds should still be relatively strong, particularly near the terrain. 15-20 mph will be most common with terrain gaps likely being higher. Elevated meteorological conditions could reach into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, but current fuel indices suggest limited risk for ignitions/spread at this time. ..Wendt.. 12/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The northwestern upper trough will move into the central Rockies on Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds will be roughly perpendicular to the terrain. In the Plains, a surface low will develop/deepen in the northern Plains with a trough extending into the central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Confidence in the degree of RH reduction is not overly high, but given the favorable downslope wind pattern, pockets of 15-25% are possible. With fuels continuing to dry in the region, they will be at least marginally receptive to fire spread. Winds are the more confident portion of the forecast. 15-20 mph can be expected for most areas, especially the eastern Plains of Colorado. Within terrain-favored areas, 20-25 mph is more probable along with even higher wind gusts. These stronger winds will promote elevated fire weather despite somewhat limited RH reduction and fuel receptiveness. ...Southern High Plains... RH of 10-20% can be expected within the region as temperatures should be warmer than farther north. Winds should still be relatively strong, particularly near the terrain. 15-20 mph will be most common with terrain gaps likely being higher. Elevated meteorological conditions could reach into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, but current fuel indices suggest limited risk for ignitions/spread at this time. ..Wendt.. 12/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As a strong upper trough moves into the Northwest, the upper ridge across much of the CONUS will begin to flatten today. Surface high pressure will generally remain in the Southeast. A weak surface trough/front will move eastward through the Plains. Some locally dry and breezy conditions are possible in the central/southern High Plains. Wind speeds will be marginal outside of a few terrain-favored zones. Locally elevated conditions could occur, but greater fire weather concerns are not expected. ..Wendt.. 12/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic severe gusts may accompany isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday night. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast through tonight before shifting inland over WA during the early morning Wednesday. A deepening surface cyclone will move across southern BC towards southwest AB, with a Pacific cold front trailing south-southwestward. Low-topped convection is expected to accompany the front, initially approaching the WA coast by late evening. Surface-based buoyancy will remain meager, but strong gradient winds will shift from the southwest to west-northwest as the front passes. Sporadic lightning flashes and strong to severe gusts may accompany passage of this low-topped squall before it subsides inland in western WA/OR. Intense lower-level flow will likely peak in the overnight to early morning hours. Buoyancy should remain quite limited along and east of the Cascades, but most guidance indicates broken low-topped convection should spread east along/ahead of the front amid pronounced large-scale ascent. Background gradient winds will likely be capable of producing severe gusts, and some of these may be coincident with sporadic lightning flashes. ..Grams/Wendt.. 12/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... Thunderstorms earlier this afternoon over southwest OR have fully decayed in the past couple hours. A lone storm or two will be possible tonight within the persistent, but modest low-level warm conveyor that will shift farther inland to the northern Rockies. With flimsy elevated buoyancy expected (MUCAPE at or below 100 J/kg), overall thunderstorm probabilities appear negligible. A few lightning flashes were also detected in the last hour across northwest WA near a shortwave trough, that will rapidly progress east across far southern AB/SK tonight. This thunder threat is expected to remain very isolated and diminish east of the Cascades. ..Grams.. 12/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... Thunderstorms earlier this afternoon over southwest OR have fully decayed in the past couple hours. A lone storm or two will be possible tonight within the persistent, but modest low-level warm conveyor that will shift farther inland to the northern Rockies. With flimsy elevated buoyancy expected (MUCAPE at or below 100 J/kg), overall thunderstorm probabilities appear negligible. A few lightning flashes were also detected in the last hour across northwest WA near a shortwave trough, that will rapidly progress east across far southern AB/SK tonight. This thunder threat is expected to remain very isolated and diminish east of the Cascades. ..Grams.. 12/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through the work week and into the weekend across the south-central CONUS, though uncertainty remains high regarding which days/areas will see the greatest fire weather threat. Latest long-range guidance continues to trend towards an amplifying upper wave over the central U.S. Late Wednesday into Thursday with an attendant cyclone intensifying over the northern Plains/Great Lakes region. A second, though lower amplitude, upper trough will progress across the country late Friday into Saturday, supporting a second surface low developing during the same period. These two systems will support rain/snow chances across much of the country with the exception of the Southwest and southern Plains where dry conditions will prevail. ...D3/Wednesday to D6/Saturday - Southern High Plains/Plains... The fuel landscape is expected to gradually improve through the work week as temperatures warm to the 75-90th percentiles of seasonal normal and promote steady drying of dead/dormant fine fuels. The intensification of a surface low over the northern High Plains on D3/Wed will promote strengthening southwesterly winds across the central to southern High Plains. Antecedent dry conditions coupled with increasing winds should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions across northeast NM to southeast CO. 40% risk probabilities have been introduced where ensemble agreement shows the highest potential for a prolonged fire weather threat. A cold front is forecast to push into the central/southern Plains through D4/Thursday. Strong northwest winds are expected behind the front with some reduction in RH likely within the post-frontal air mass across southern KS into OK and northwest TX. While some guidance, notably recent runs of the GFS, show widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions, other solutions are less bullish on the overlap of 20+ mph winds and sub-25% RH. Although the potential for critical conditions is noted, the disparity between deterministic solutions and weak ensemble signals limit confidence in this potential. A rapid return to a southerly dry return flow regime is expected by D5/Friday across the southern Plains as a surface low intensifies over the Dakotas. A cold frontal passage is anticipated on D6/Saturday with dry/windy conditions possible within the pre-frontal air mass. 15-20 mph winds appear probable both days across eastern NM into northwest TX, OK and southern KS, through large spread regarding RH reductions within both regimes is noted. As with D4/Thursday, poor agreement in wind speed/RH reductions among deterministic guidance and weak ensemble signals suggest the predictability of the fire weather threats on either day remains limited at this range. ..Moore.. 12/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low today as strong surface high pressure and cut-off Gulf moisture results in a dry/stable airmass across much of the CONUS. A weak shortwave impulse will move over portions of the Pacific Northwest today/tonight. A few lightning flashes will be possible offshore, but minimal instability and generally shallow convection will preclude stronger updrafts through sufficiently cold temperatures aloft to produce thunderstorms inland. Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 15 19:36:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 15 19:36:02 UTC 2025.