SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track with limited potential for
widespread fire weather concerns expected across the country for
Tuesday. Latest guidance continues to depict dry conditions across
the Southeast, but weak winds are expected under a surface high.
Localized elevated fire weather conditions may develop within the
immediate lee of the CO Front Range and the Sacramento Mountains in
NM; however, modest synoptic winds will limit the coverage of
elevated meteorological conditions over a region with marginally dry
fuels.
..Moore.. 12/15/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025/
...Synopsis...
Some modest breakdown of the upper ridge across the CONUS can be
expected on Tuesday. A weak front will move out of the High Plains.
There will be some increase in mid-level winds across the Rockies as
well. Where sufficient downslope warming occurs within the
central/southern High Plains, fire weather could approach elevated
criteria locally. Confidence in location/duration are too limited
for highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Fire weather potential remains limited for today. Dry conditions are
noted across portions of the Southeast where RH values are falling
into the low 30s. While dry conditions will continue, a combination
of weak winds and recent rainfall should mitigate more substantial
fire concerns. Elsewhere, localized elevated conditions appear
likely within the immediate lee of the Laramie Mountains in
southeast WY, but as with yesterday, these conditions are expected
to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. See the
previous discussion for additional details.
..Moore.. 12/15/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025/
...Synopsis...
Cold air will continue to move into the Southeast today. Some dry
and breezy return flow is possible in the southern Plains, but cool
temperatures/higher RH will also be present. The most likely
location for localized fire weather concerns will be east of the
terrain in southeastern Wyoming. There, downslope warming and breezy
conditions supported by a weak lee trough and modest mid-level flow
will promote potentially elevated conditions. However, the
duration/intensity of those conditions is too much in doubt for
highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1003 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm potential will remain low today as strong surface high
pressure and cut-off Gulf moisture results in a dry/stable airmass
across much of the CONUS. A weak shortwave impulse will move over
portions of the Pacific Northwest today/tonight. A few lightning
flashes will be possible offshore, but minimal instability and
generally shallow convection will preclude stronger updrafts through
sufficiently cold temperatures aloft to produce thunderstorms
inland.
..Leitman.. 12/15/2025
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...Discussion...
A progressive shortwave trough and a 100+ kt mid-level speed max
will progress eastward and inland across Washington/British Columbia
by later this afternoon and evening. A few lightning flashes could
occur for coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest relatively early
today via weak elevated buoyancy within the warm conveyor preceding
the shortwave trough/cold front. Mid-level temperatures will
subsequently cool in the post-frontal environment, but the potential
for sufficiently deep convection through lightning-conducive
levels/temperatures should remain marginal later today, thus
limiting thunderstorm potential.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/15/2025
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...Discussion...
A progressive shortwave trough and a 100+ kt mid-level speed max
will progress eastward and inland across Washington/British Columbia
by later this afternoon and evening. A few lightning flashes could
occur for coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest relatively early
today via weak elevated buoyancy within the warm conveyor preceding
the shortwave trough/cold front. Mid-level temperatures will
subsequently cool in the post-frontal environment, but the potential
for sufficiently deep convection through lightning-conducive
levels/temperatures should remain marginal later today, thus
limiting thunderstorm potential.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/15/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Thursday - Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley to the
Southeast...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday as moisture expands
northward ahead of a strong cold front. Forecast soundings show
strong shear across the region, but limited instability as 60+ F
dewpoints struggle to make it north of I-20. Given the strength of
the low-level jet, some damaging wind gusts are possible, but a
greater threat is not anticipated due to the aforementioned limited
instability.
...D5/Friday - Carolinas to Georgia Coast...
Thunderstorms may be ongoing near the Carolina/Georgia coast on
Friday morning, but will quickly move into the Atlantic as a cold
front advances eastward. In addition, this front will move into the
Gulf and push rich moisture well offshore. As a result, thunderstorm
potential should be limited for the remainder of the D5 period.
...D6/Sat-D7/Sun - TN Valley into the Southeast...
Return flow will resume once again across the western Gulf over the
weekend. 60F dewpoints are expected to advect inland across East
Texas and Louisiana. This richer moisture may eventually interact
with a southeastward moving cold front at the end of D6 and into D7
with some thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms may be
possible if sufficient instability can develop.
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Thursday - Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley to the
Southeast...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday as moisture expands
northward ahead of a strong cold front. Forecast soundings show
strong shear across the region, but limited instability as 60+ F
dewpoints struggle to make it north of I-20. Given the strength of
the low-level jet, some damaging wind gusts are possible, but a
greater threat is not anticipated due to the aforementioned limited
instability.
...D5/Friday - Carolinas to Georgia Coast...
Thunderstorms may be ongoing near the Carolina/Georgia coast on
Friday morning, but will quickly move into the Atlantic as a cold
front advances eastward. In addition, this front will move into the
Gulf and push rich moisture well offshore. As a result, thunderstorm
potential should be limited for the remainder of the D5 period.
...D6/Sat-D7/Sun - TN Valley into the Southeast...
Return flow will resume once again across the western Gulf over the
weekend. 60F dewpoints are expected to advect inland across East
Texas and Louisiana. This richer moisture may eventually interact
with a southeastward moving cold front at the end of D6 and into D7
with some thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms may be
possible if sufficient instability can develop.
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain
Wednesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms are possible early
Thursday morning from the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak and associated shortwave trough over
the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday morning will move quickly across
the Rockies and amplify as it enters the Plains late Wednesday into
early Thursday morning. A very strong surface low, associated with
this fast-moving trough, will move from British Columbia Wednesday
morning to the Upper Midwest by early Thursday morning.
A few thunderstorms may persist early Wednesday within a region of
weak isentropic ascent across East Texas. However, as the low-level
jet veers/weakens, this threat is expected to wane. High pressure
will continue to dominate much of the daytime period across the
eastern CONUS which should limit any thunderstorm potential.
However, by Wednesday night, thunderstorm potential is expected to
increase from the Texas Coastal Plain to the Lower Ohio River
Valley. As the mid-level trough amplifies across the Plains, a
low-level jet will rapidly strengthen from East Texas to the Ozarks.
This will advect low-level moisture northward during the evening.
After 06Z, weak to potentially moderate elevated instability is
expected within a broad region of weak isentropic ascent from
Arkansas to southern Illinois. Effective shear (based on an elevated
parcel) is expected to remain very weak early Thursday morning as
the primary mid-level jet streak is not forecast to emerge over the
warm sector until later Thursday morning. Therefore, no severe
weather is anticipated on Day 3/Wednesday.
..Bentley.. 12/15/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain
Wednesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms are possible early
Thursday morning from the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak and associated shortwave trough over
the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday morning will move quickly across
the Rockies and amplify as it enters the Plains late Wednesday into
early Thursday morning. A very strong surface low, associated with
this fast-moving trough, will move from British Columbia Wednesday
morning to the Upper Midwest by early Thursday morning.
A few thunderstorms may persist early Wednesday within a region of
weak isentropic ascent across East Texas. However, as the low-level
jet veers/weakens, this threat is expected to wane. High pressure
will continue to dominate much of the daytime period across the
eastern CONUS which should limit any thunderstorm potential.
However, by Wednesday night, thunderstorm potential is expected to
increase from the Texas Coastal Plain to the Lower Ohio River
Valley. As the mid-level trough amplifies across the Plains, a
low-level jet will rapidly strengthen from East Texas to the Ozarks.
This will advect low-level moisture northward during the evening.
After 06Z, weak to potentially moderate elevated instability is
expected within a broad region of weak isentropic ascent from
Arkansas to southern Illinois. Effective shear (based on an elevated
parcel) is expected to remain very weak early Thursday morning as
the primary mid-level jet streak is not forecast to emerge over the
warm sector until later Thursday morning. Therefore, no severe
weather is anticipated on Day 3/Wednesday.
..Bentley.. 12/15/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Pacific Northwest
on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms also
possible over the Texas Coastal Plain early Wednesday morning.
...Pacific Northwest...
A strong mid-level jet streak will approach the Pacific Northwest
coast Tuesday evening. At the surface, a strong cold front will move
onshore and bring the potential for some stronger thunderstorms.
Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the surface cold
front off the OR/WA coast Tuesday afternoon/evening. A stronger line
of convection is expected to develop along the front as it
approaches the coast Tuesday evening. Given the very strong wind
field (nearly 100 knots at 500mb), some stronger wind gusts may
develop within the convective line. Forecast instability is quite
weak (100 to 200 J/kg MLCAPE) which casts some doubt on the
efficiency for the stronger mid-level flow to mix to the surface.
This is the primary factor precluding a 5% wind area at this time.
Instability will wane quickly inland and therefore, any stronger
wind gusts will likely be confined to areas along the coast.
...Texas Coastal Plain...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across Texas during the
day on Tuesday. Mid-level forcing will be weak, but a modest
low-level jet will develop across East Texas and persist through the
day. This will bring some return moisture to the Texas Coastal
Plain. Eventually, likely after 06Z, the combination of moistening
low-levels and slightly cooling temperatures aloft will result in
sufficient destabilization for a few isolated thunderstorms within
the zone of isentropic ascent across East Texas.
..Bentley.. 12/15/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Pacific Northwest
on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms also
possible over the Texas Coastal Plain early Wednesday morning.
...Pacific Northwest...
A strong mid-level jet streak will approach the Pacific Northwest
coast Tuesday evening. At the surface, a strong cold front will move
onshore and bring the potential for some stronger thunderstorms.
Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the surface cold
front off the OR/WA coast Tuesday afternoon/evening. A stronger line
of convection is expected to develop along the front as it
approaches the coast Tuesday evening. Given the very strong wind
field (nearly 100 knots at 500mb), some stronger wind gusts may
develop within the convective line. Forecast instability is quite
weak (100 to 200 J/kg MLCAPE) which casts some doubt on the
efficiency for the stronger mid-level flow to mix to the surface.
This is the primary factor precluding a 5% wind area at this time.
Instability will wane quickly inland and therefore, any stronger
wind gusts will likely be confined to areas along the coast.
...Texas Coastal Plain...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across Texas during the
day on Tuesday. Mid-level forcing will be weak, but a modest
low-level jet will develop across East Texas and persist through the
day. This will bring some return moisture to the Texas Coastal
Plain. Eventually, likely after 06Z, the combination of moistening
low-levels and slightly cooling temperatures aloft will result in
sufficient destabilization for a few isolated thunderstorms within
the zone of isentropic ascent across East Texas.
..Bentley.. 12/15/2025
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Some modest breakdown of the upper ridge across the CONUS can be
expected on Tuesday. A weak front will move out of the High Plains.
There will be some increase in mid-level winds across the Rockies as
well. Where sufficient downslope warming occurs within the
central/southern High Plains, fire weather could approach elevated
criteria locally. Confidence in location/duration are too limited
for highlights.
..Wendt.. 12/15/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Some modest breakdown of the upper ridge across the CONUS can be
expected on Tuesday. A weak front will move out of the High Plains.
There will be some increase in mid-level winds across the Rockies as
well. Where sufficient downslope warming occurs within the
central/southern High Plains, fire weather could approach elevated
criteria locally. Confidence in location/duration are too limited
for highlights.
..Wendt.. 12/15/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities are low today.
...Pacific Northwest...
100+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate inland along the
WA/OR coast around 16/00z. Low-amplitude short-wave trough will
induce strong height falls near the international border ahead of
this feature, coincident with a notable surface front that will
surge inland after 21z. While profiles will cool and steepen at
midlevels, forecast soundings are not particularly buoyant either
side of the trough, and the prospect for deep convection capable of
generating lightning appears low. While the thunderstorm potential
appears low, weak midlevel convection is possible and a flash or two
can not be ruled out. This, however, does not warrant a categorical
risk for thunderstorms during the day1 period.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/15/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities are low today.
...Pacific Northwest...
100+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate inland along the
WA/OR coast around 16/00z. Low-amplitude short-wave trough will
induce strong height falls near the international border ahead of
this feature, coincident with a notable surface front that will
surge inland after 21z. While profiles will cool and steepen at
midlevels, forecast soundings are not particularly buoyant either
side of the trough, and the prospect for deep convection capable of
generating lightning appears low. While the thunderstorm potential
appears low, weak midlevel convection is possible and a flash or two
can not be ruled out. This, however, does not warrant a categorical
risk for thunderstorms during the day1 period.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/15/2025
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Cold air will continue to move into the Southeast today. Some dry
and breezy return flow is possible in the southern Plains, but cool
temperatures/higher RH will also be present. The most likely
location for localized fire weather concerns will be east of the
terrain in southeastern Wyoming. There, downslope warming and breezy
conditions supported by a weak lee trough and modest mid-level flow
will promote potentially elevated conditions. However, the
duration/intensity of those conditions is too much in doubt for
highlights.
..Wendt.. 12/15/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Cold air will continue to move into the Southeast today. Some dry
and breezy return flow is possible in the southern Plains, but cool
temperatures/higher RH will also be present. The most likely
location for localized fire weather concerns will be east of the
terrain in southeastern Wyoming. There, downslope warming and breezy
conditions supported by a weak lee trough and modest mid-level flow
will promote potentially elevated conditions. However, the
duration/intensity of those conditions is too much in doubt for
highlights.
..Wendt.. 12/15/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
...01z Update...
Northwesterly flow is deepening across the southern FL Peninsula as
the primary synoptic front surges toward the FL Straits. Isolated
showers are lingering across this region, with even a few flashes of
lightning near West Palm Beach. However, this activity should
continue to wane then focus well offshore over the next few hours.
00z sounding from UIL is quite stable this evening with poor lapse
rates noted through 6km. Late tonight elevated buoyancy may increase
near the WA coast such that weak convection is able to develop ahead
of approaching short-wave trough. If lightning is noted with this
activity it will remain quite sparse.
..Darrow.. 12/15/2025
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