SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible in the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday
and Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
As high pressure moves from the Southeast into the Atlantic, and
weak lee troughing develops across the High Plains, southerly return
flow returns across the Plains on Tuesday. Some showers may develop
within weak isentropic ascent across east Texas on Tuesday night,
but most guidance shows minimal instability until after 12Z
Wednesday. Therefore, thunderstorm activity is not expected.
Thunderstorms are possible in western Washington and far northwest
Oregon on Tuesday and Tuesday night as a strong mid-level trough
approaches the coast. Weak instability is expected during the
afternoon, but most forecast soundings suggest the equilibrium level
will be too low for charge separation which may keep any lightning
potential isolated. However, by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday,
as cold air aloft overspreads the region, sufficiently deep
instability is expected for lightning across western Washington and
perhaps into northwest Oregon. During this time, more frequent
lightning may be possible with a line of convection along the
surface front.
..Bentley.. 12/14/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible in the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday
and Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
As high pressure moves from the Southeast into the Atlantic, and
weak lee troughing develops across the High Plains, southerly return
flow returns across the Plains on Tuesday. Some showers may develop
within weak isentropic ascent across east Texas on Tuesday night,
but most guidance shows minimal instability until after 12Z
Wednesday. Therefore, thunderstorm activity is not expected.
Thunderstorms are possible in western Washington and far northwest
Oregon on Tuesday and Tuesday night as a strong mid-level trough
approaches the coast. Weak instability is expected during the
afternoon, but most forecast soundings suggest the equilibrium level
will be too low for charge separation which may keep any lightning
potential isolated. However, by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday,
as cold air aloft overspreads the region, sufficiently deep
instability is expected for lightning across western Washington and
perhaps into northwest Oregon. During this time, more frequent
lightning may be possible with a line of convection along the
surface front.
..Bentley.. 12/14/2025
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible in the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday
and Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
As high pressure moves from the Southeast into the Atlantic, and
weak lee troughing develops across the High Plains, southerly return
flow returns across the Plains on Tuesday. Some showers may develop
within weak isentropic ascent across east Texas on Tuesday night,
but most guidance shows minimal instability until after 12Z
Wednesday. Therefore, thunderstorm activity is not expected.
Thunderstorms are possible in western Washington and far northwest
Oregon on Tuesday and Tuesday night as a strong mid-level trough
approaches the coast. Weak instability is expected during the
afternoon, but most forecast soundings suggest the equilibrium level
will be too low for charge separation which may keep any lightning
potential isolated. However, by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday,
as cold air aloft overspreads the region, sufficiently deep
instability is expected for lightning across western Washington and
perhaps into northwest Oregon. During this time, more frequent
lightning may be possible with a line of convection along the
surface front.
..Bentley.. 12/14/2025
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible in western Oregon and Washington on
Monday.
...Discussion...
A strong area of high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on
Monday with rich low-level moisture pushed well south into the Gulf.
Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected for most of the CONUS on
Monday. The only exception will be western Oregon/Washington. A
strong surface low will move into British Columbia, with some modest
northward moisture push ahead of a cold front. This low-level
moisture advection, combined with cooling temperatures aloft with
the associated mid-level trough, should result in weak instability
on Monday. A few lightning flashes will be possible.
..Bentley.. 12/14/2025
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible in western Oregon and Washington on
Monday.
...Discussion...
A strong area of high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on
Monday with rich low-level moisture pushed well south into the Gulf.
Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected for most of the CONUS on
Monday. The only exception will be western Oregon/Washington. A
strong surface low will move into British Columbia, with some modest
northward moisture push ahead of a cold front. This low-level
moisture advection, combined with cooling temperatures aloft with
the associated mid-level trough, should result in weak instability
on Monday. A few lightning flashes will be possible.
..Bentley.. 12/14/2025
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible in western Oregon and Washington on
Monday.
...Discussion...
A strong area of high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on
Monday with rich low-level moisture pushed well south into the Gulf.
Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected for most of the CONUS on
Monday. The only exception will be western Oregon/Washington. A
strong surface low will move into British Columbia, with some modest
northward moisture push ahead of a cold front. This low-level
moisture advection, combined with cooling temperatures aloft with
the associated mid-level trough, should result in weak instability
on Monday. A few lightning flashes will be possible.
..Bentley.. 12/14/2025
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible in western Oregon and Washington on
Monday.
...Discussion...
A strong area of high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on
Monday with rich low-level moisture pushed well south into the Gulf.
Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected for most of the CONUS on
Monday. The only exception will be western Oregon/Washington. A
strong surface low will move into British Columbia, with some modest
northward moisture push ahead of a cold front. This low-level
moisture advection, combined with cooling temperatures aloft with
the associated mid-level trough, should result in weak instability
on Monday. A few lightning flashes will be possible.
..Bentley.. 12/14/2025
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will continue shift eastward into more of the central
CONUS on Monday. Surface high pressure will remain in the Southeast.
Breezy return flow will occur across parts of the southern Plains,
but cooler temperatures should continue to limit RH reductions.
Locally dry and breezy conditions are again possible in southeast
Wyoming. Fuels in parts of these regions may support brief, locally
elevated conditions, but greater fire weather concerns are not
expected.
..Wendt.. 12/14/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will continue shift eastward into more of the central
CONUS on Monday. Surface high pressure will remain in the Southeast.
Breezy return flow will occur across parts of the southern Plains,
but cooler temperatures should continue to limit RH reductions.
Locally dry and breezy conditions are again possible in southeast
Wyoming. Fuels in parts of these regions may support brief, locally
elevated conditions, but greater fire weather concerns are not
expected.
..Wendt.. 12/14/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will continue shift eastward into more of the central
CONUS on Monday. Surface high pressure will remain in the Southeast.
Breezy return flow will occur across parts of the southern Plains,
but cooler temperatures should continue to limit RH reductions.
Locally dry and breezy conditions are again possible in southeast
Wyoming. Fuels in parts of these regions may support brief, locally
elevated conditions, but greater fire weather concerns are not
expected.
..Wendt.. 12/14/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
today and eventually move off the East Coast by Monday morning. Cold
air will continue to filter into the Southeast. Some dry and breezy
conditions are possible in southeastern Wyoming. Additionally gusty
northerly winds with modest RH reductions are expected in the
Southeast behind the cold front. Given the cool/cold temperatures
and poor fuel receptiveness across much of the CONUS, fire weather
concerns will remain low.
..Wendt.. 12/14/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
today and eventually move off the East Coast by Monday morning. Cold
air will continue to filter into the Southeast. Some dry and breezy
conditions are possible in southeastern Wyoming. Additionally gusty
northerly winds with modest RH reductions are expected in the
Southeast behind the cold front. Given the cool/cold temperatures
and poor fuel receptiveness across much of the CONUS, fire weather
concerns will remain low.
..Wendt.. 12/14/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
today and eventually move off the East Coast by Monday morning. Cold
air will continue to filter into the Southeast. Some dry and breezy
conditions are possible in southeastern Wyoming. Additionally gusty
northerly winds with modest RH reductions are expected in the
Southeast behind the cold front. Given the cool/cold temperatures
and poor fuel receptiveness across much of the CONUS, fire weather
concerns will remain low.
..Wendt.. 12/14/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys,
as well as the western Gulf Coast today.
...Discussion...
Strong upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest region will advance
off the Middle Atlantic Coast by 15/06z as the primary midlevel
speed max translate well downstream. Dominant surface anticyclone
will settle into the mid MS/OH Valley region by late afternoon which
will effectively drive the cold front deep into Mexico and across
the southern FL Peninsula. Early in the period, isolated
thunderstorms may be noted along the trailing cold front across the
northwestern Gulf Coast region. Some risk for a few flashes of
lighting are also possible with weak convection across the southern
FL Peninsula before flow veers and stronger convergence shifts
offshore.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/14/2025
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys,
as well as the western Gulf Coast today.
...Discussion...
Strong upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest region will advance
off the Middle Atlantic Coast by 15/06z as the primary midlevel
speed max translate well downstream. Dominant surface anticyclone
will settle into the mid MS/OH Valley region by late afternoon which
will effectively drive the cold front deep into Mexico and across
the southern FL Peninsula. Early in the period, isolated
thunderstorms may be noted along the trailing cold front across the
northwestern Gulf Coast region. Some risk for a few flashes of
lighting are also possible with weak convection across the southern
FL Peninsula before flow veers and stronger convergence shifts
offshore.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/14/2025
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys,
as well as the western Gulf Coast today.
...Discussion...
Strong upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest region will advance
off the Middle Atlantic Coast by 15/06z as the primary midlevel
speed max translate well downstream. Dominant surface anticyclone
will settle into the mid MS/OH Valley region by late afternoon which
will effectively drive the cold front deep into Mexico and across
the southern FL Peninsula. Early in the period, isolated
thunderstorms may be noted along the trailing cold front across the
northwestern Gulf Coast region. Some risk for a few flashes of
lighting are also possible with weak convection across the southern
FL Peninsula before flow veers and stronger convergence shifts
offshore.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/14/2025
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
...01z Update...
Surface front has surged into central TX, arcing across northern LA
into central MS early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms have
developed ahead of this boundary over east TX and across northern
IL. This activity should gradually increase in areal coverage as the
front advances toward the northwest Gulf Coast. 00z soundings from
SHV and LCH exhibit sufficient buoyancy for lighting within deep
convection, but profiles do not favor particularly robust
thunderstorms and severe is not anticipated.
Scattered-numerous thunderstorm clusters are currently noted across
the FL Straits within a seasonally high PW air mass characterized by
weak buoyancy. Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable
short-wave trough over the eastern Gulf Basin. This feature should
continue to support convection across the Straits and the southern
FL Peninsula tonight.
..Darrow.. 12/14/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to weaken Day 3/Monday over the
Southwest with a shift toward a zonal flow pattern across much of
the CONUS Day 4/Tuesday through the end of next week. This
upper-level regime will support relatively cool conditions with
periodic precipitation chances from the Pacific Northwest into the
northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Meanwhile, dry conditions
are expected across much of the southern Plains and the Southwest
with little-to-no precipitation and above normal surface
temperatures.
...Central/Southern Plains...
A gradual increase in fire weather conditions is expected this week
across portions of the central/southern Plains as persistent dry and
relatively warm conditions remain in place. While fuels are only
marginally receptive at this time across these areas, an increase in
fuel readiness is expected through this week amidst the dry/warm
conditions.
Periodic lee cyclone strengthening this week should foster at least
locally Elevated fire weather conditions most days amidst dry/breezy
winds. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest the greatest potential
for widespread Elevated (and potentially Critical) conditions is Day
5/Wednesday and/or Day 6/Thursday as a strong lee cyclone develops
over the northern Plains. While fire weather highlights may be
needed in a future outlook, at this time the probability for
Critical conditions at any location remains less than 40% due to
lingering run-to-run model variability.
..Elliott.. 12/13/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to weaken Day 3/Monday over the
Southwest with a shift toward a zonal flow pattern across much of
the CONUS Day 4/Tuesday through the end of next week. This
upper-level regime will support relatively cool conditions with
periodic precipitation chances from the Pacific Northwest into the
northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Meanwhile, dry conditions
are expected across much of the southern Plains and the Southwest
with little-to-no precipitation and above normal surface
temperatures.
...Central/Southern Plains...
A gradual increase in fire weather conditions is expected this week
across portions of the central/southern Plains as persistent dry and
relatively warm conditions remain in place. While fuels are only
marginally receptive at this time across these areas, an increase in
fuel readiness is expected through this week amidst the dry/warm
conditions.
Periodic lee cyclone strengthening this week should foster at least
locally Elevated fire weather conditions most days amidst dry/breezy
winds. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest the greatest potential
for widespread Elevated (and potentially Critical) conditions is Day
5/Wednesday and/or Day 6/Thursday as a strong lee cyclone develops
over the northern Plains. While fire weather highlights may be
needed in a future outlook, at this time the probability for
Critical conditions at any location remains less than 40% due to
lingering run-to-run model variability.
..Elliott.. 12/13/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
