Storm Prediction Center

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 13 21:27:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments may to the thunder line along the southern TX Gulf Coast where a cold pool associated with offshore convection is spreading onshore. Thunderstorm coverage is still expected to increase later this afternoon/evening across southeast TX and southern LA, but the potential for severe thunderstorms remains limited. ..Moore.. 12/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025/ ...Southeast TX/Southwest LA... Morning satellite loops confirm northward transport of low-level moisture into parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. This trend will continue this afternoon and evening as a shallow surface cold front sags southward through the region. Model guidance suggests that weak but sufficient instability will develop after dark from southeast TX into southwest LA to result in a few pre-frontal thunderstorms. Shear is weak, and limited CAPE will preclude organized severe storms. However, small hail is possible in the strongest cores tonight. ...FL... A low-latitude disturbance crossing the Gulf and a northward moisture flux ahead of it will contribute to thunderstorm potential across the Florida Keys/Florida Straits today, and also across the southern Florida Peninsula tonight. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely with these scenarios. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments may to the thunder line along the southern TX Gulf Coast where a cold pool associated with offshore convection is spreading onshore. Thunderstorm coverage is still expected to increase later this afternoon/evening across southeast TX and southern LA, but the potential for severe thunderstorms remains limited. ..Moore.. 12/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025/ ...Southeast TX/Southwest LA... Morning satellite loops confirm northward transport of low-level moisture into parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. This trend will continue this afternoon and evening as a shallow surface cold front sags southward through the region. Model guidance suggests that weak but sufficient instability will develop after dark from southeast TX into southwest LA to result in a few pre-frontal thunderstorms. Shear is weak, and limited CAPE will preclude organized severe storms. However, small hail is possible in the strongest cores tonight. ...FL... A low-latitude disturbance crossing the Gulf and a northward moisture flux ahead of it will contribute to thunderstorm potential across the Florida Keys/Florida Straits today, and also across the southern Florida Peninsula tonight. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely with these scenarios. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over much of the central and eastern CONUS as a mid-level trough de-amplifies over the Pacific Northwest on Monday. Surface high pressure will sweep across much of the southern and eastern CONUS with a statically stable airmass, while a cold and/or dry surface airmass encompasses much of the Plains into the Interior West. As a result, thunderstorm development should be negligible over most of the CONUS. The one exception may be over portions of the Pacific Northwest Coastline. Here, the de-amplifying ridge will aid in the advection of colder temperatures atop a marine boundary layer. Given at least modest forcing for ascent and scant buoyancy, a few lightning flashes may occur. ..Squitieri.. 12/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's (Sunday) fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 12/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough will move through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Sunday into Monday morning. The upper ridge in the West will expand into the Plains. A surface high pressure system will move southeastward and a cold front will move through much of the Gulf. Locally dry and windy conditions are possible in eastern Wyoming. Poor fuel receptiveness will preclude much in the way of fire weather concerns. Though temperatures will be cool/cold in the Southeast, gusty northerly winds and modest RH reductions will be possible. Recent precipitation in the past week has left fuel receptiveness marginal at best. This, along with the marginal temperatures, should preclude fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys, as well as the western Gulf Coast tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as another upper trough approaches the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Sunday). Surface high pressure and an associated statically stable airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. The best chance for any isolated thunderstorm development will be along a surface cold front. At the start of the period (12Z Sunday), a few thunderstorms may develop along the cold front across the western Gulf Coast as the front encounters low-level moisture and moves offshore. Later in the day, the cold front will encounter a low-level moisture-driven, marginally unstable airmass across the southern FL Peninsula/FL Keys, where isolated thunderstorms will also be possible. Across the Pacific Northwest, cooler temperatures aloft (and accompanying scant buoyancy) will impinge on the shoreline toward the end of the period (06-12Z Monday morning). While a couple of lightning flashes may occur during this time frame, the current thinking is that the overall coverage of lightning will likely be too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... Large-scale trough amplification will occur over the Midwest/East through tonight, with expanding surface high pressure across the Plains and Midwest in the wake of a cold front progressing south-southeastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast by late tonight and early Sunday. Preceding the front, weak warm/moist advection should allow for northeastward-expanding thunderstorm development across southeast Texas and Louisiana today, with potential persisting until the frontal passage tonight. A low-latitude disturbance crossing the Gulf and a northward moisture flux ahead of it will contribute to thunderstorm potential across the Florida Keys/Florida Straits today, and also across the southern Florida Peninsula tonight. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely with these scenarios. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/13/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5. Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm and severe weather potential. The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend. A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather threat. Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential low-end threat difficult. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5. Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm and severe weather potential. The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend. A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather threat. Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential low-end threat difficult. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Strong high pressure will dominate much of the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS on Monday with strong offshore flow into the Atlantic and the Gulf, pushing rich moisture well offshore. Therefore, thunderstorm activity is not expected across much of the CONUS. The only exception may be across the Pacific Northwest coast where some weak instability may develop. However, even within this area, lightning activity should remain limited due to relatively warm air aloft. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Strong high pressure will dominate much of the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS on Monday with strong offshore flow into the Atlantic and the Gulf, pushing rich moisture well offshore. Therefore, thunderstorm activity is not expected across much of the CONUS. The only exception may be across the Pacific Northwest coast where some weak instability may develop. However, even within this area, lightning activity should remain limited due to relatively warm air aloft. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday. ...Discussion... An upper trough will move from the Great Lakes to the western Atlantic by Sunday night/early Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will continue to build south and east from the Midwest to the Tennessee Valley. This expansive high pressure will push a cold front into the Atlantic and the Gulf. Richer boundary layer moisture will remain confined to South Florida and the Keys where showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning. This activity may persist into the afternoon while shifting southeast with time. However, weak instability should limit overall severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday. ...Discussion... An upper trough will move from the Great Lakes to the western Atlantic by Sunday night/early Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will continue to build south and east from the Midwest to the Tennessee Valley. This expansive high pressure will push a cold front into the Atlantic and the Gulf. Richer boundary layer moisture will remain confined to South Florida and the Keys where showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning. This activity may persist into the afternoon while shifting southeast with time. However, weak instability should limit overall severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday. ...Discussion... An upper trough will move from the Great Lakes to the western Atlantic by Sunday night/early Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will continue to build south and east from the Midwest to the Tennessee Valley. This expansive high pressure will push a cold front into the Atlantic and the Gulf. Richer boundary layer moisture will remain confined to South Florida and the Keys where showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning. This activity may persist into the afternoon while shifting southeast with time. However, weak instability should limit overall severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as South Florida and the Keys this afternoon into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Strong midlevel height falls will spread across the Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic during the day1 period as a pronounced upper trough digs across the Great Lakes/OH Valley. This evolution warrants surface pressures rising across the interior CONUS east of the Rockies, ultimately forcing a cold front toward the upper TX/LA Coast by the end of the period. Prior to the frontal passage, weak low-level warm advection will aid some convective threat due in part to the influence of a low-amplitude short-wave trough that will eject across the western Gulf basin. Otherwise, lightning may accompany frontal convection as the wind shift surges into this region. In addition to isolated thunderstorms across the upper TX/LA Coasts, moisture/buoyancy is expected to gradually advance north across the FL Keys into the southern FL Peninsula. Weak disturbance should encourage isolated thunderstorm development across this region as well. In both scenarios, severe threat appears negligible. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as South Florida and the Keys this afternoon into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Strong midlevel height falls will spread across the Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic during the day1 period as a pronounced upper trough digs across the Great Lakes/OH Valley. This evolution warrants surface pressures rising across the interior CONUS east of the Rockies, ultimately forcing a cold front toward the upper TX/LA Coast by the end of the period. Prior to the frontal passage, weak low-level warm advection will aid some convective threat due in part to the influence of a low-amplitude short-wave trough that will eject across the western Gulf basin. Otherwise, lightning may accompany frontal convection as the wind shift surges into this region. In addition to isolated thunderstorms across the upper TX/LA Coasts, moisture/buoyancy is expected to gradually advance north across the FL Keys into the southern FL Peninsula. Weak disturbance should encourage isolated thunderstorm development across this region as well. In both scenarios, severe threat appears negligible. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as South Florida and the Keys this afternoon into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Strong midlevel height falls will spread across the Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic during the day1 period as a pronounced upper trough digs across the Great Lakes/OH Valley. This evolution warrants surface pressures rising across the interior CONUS east of the Rockies, ultimately forcing a cold front toward the upper TX/LA Coast by the end of the period. Prior to the frontal passage, weak low-level warm advection will aid some convective threat due in part to the influence of a low-amplitude short-wave trough that will eject across the western Gulf basin. Otherwise, lightning may accompany frontal convection as the wind shift surges into this region. In addition to isolated thunderstorms across the upper TX/LA Coasts, moisture/buoyancy is expected to gradually advance north across the FL Keys into the southern FL Peninsula. Weak disturbance should encourage isolated thunderstorm development across this region as well. In both scenarios, severe threat appears negligible. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper trough will move through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Sunday into Monday morning. The upper ridge in the West will expand into the Plains. A surface high pressure system will move southeastward and a cold front will move through much of the Gulf. Locally dry and windy conditions are possible in eastern Wyoming. Poor fuel receptiveness will preclude much in the way of fire weather concerns. Though temperatures will be cool/cold in the Southeast, gusty northerly winds and modest RH reductions will be possible. Recent precipitation in the past week has left fuel receptiveness marginal at best. This, along with the marginal temperatures, should preclude fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper trough will move through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Sunday into Monday morning. The upper ridge in the West will expand into the Plains. A surface high pressure system will move southeastward and a cold front will move through much of the Gulf. Locally dry and windy conditions are possible in eastern Wyoming. Poor fuel receptiveness will preclude much in the way of fire weather concerns. Though temperatures will be cool/cold in the Southeast, gusty northerly winds and modest RH reductions will be possible. Recent precipitation in the past week has left fuel receptiveness marginal at best. This, along with the marginal temperatures, should preclude fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper trough will move through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Sunday into Monday morning. The upper ridge in the West will expand into the Plains. A surface high pressure system will move southeastward and a cold front will move through much of the Gulf. Locally dry and windy conditions are possible in eastern Wyoming. Poor fuel receptiveness will preclude much in the way of fire weather concerns. Though temperatures will be cool/cold in the Southeast, gusty northerly winds and modest RH reductions will be possible. Recent precipitation in the past week has left fuel receptiveness marginal at best. This, along with the marginal temperatures, should preclude fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more