SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The upper trough in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will amplify
today as it moves toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. This will help
drive colder air into the Plains. Ahead of the colder air, a modest
surface low will develop and evolve southward within the central and
southern High Plains. There will be brief potential for dry/breezy
conditions that may approach elevated criteria locally. Given the
short duration of these conditions and the generally unreceptive
fuels, no highlights are warranted.
..Wendt.. 12/13/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The upper trough in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will amplify
today as it moves toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. This will help
drive colder air into the Plains. Ahead of the colder air, a modest
surface low will develop and evolve southward within the central and
southern High Plains. There will be brief potential for dry/breezy
conditions that may approach elevated criteria locally. Given the
short duration of these conditions and the generally unreceptive
fuels, no highlights are warranted.
..Wendt.. 12/13/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The upper trough in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will amplify
today as it moves toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. This will help
drive colder air into the Plains. Ahead of the colder air, a modest
surface low will develop and evolve southward within the central and
southern High Plains. There will be brief potential for dry/breezy
conditions that may approach elevated criteria locally. Given the
short duration of these conditions and the generally unreceptive
fuels, no highlights are warranted.
..Wendt.. 12/13/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the Lower
Texas Coast later tonight.
...01z Update...
Low-amplitude short-wave trough is embedded within the southern
stream over deep South TX. This feature is shearing east toward the
northwestern Gulf basin where it is expected to encourage isolated
thunderstorm development, primarily off the south TX Coast later
tonight. 00z sounding from BRO was notably capped with strong
inhibition around 2km. Latest model guidance suggests inhibition
will gradually weaken which may allow isolated offshore convection
to gradually approach the coast later tonight. Even so, this
activity should remain weak with the greater concentration holding
offshore.
..Darrow.. 12/13/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the Lower
Texas Coast later tonight.
...01z Update...
Low-amplitude short-wave trough is embedded within the southern
stream over deep South TX. This feature is shearing east toward the
northwestern Gulf basin where it is expected to encourage isolated
thunderstorm development, primarily off the south TX Coast later
tonight. 00z sounding from BRO was notably capped with strong
inhibition around 2km. Latest model guidance suggests inhibition
will gradually weaken which may allow isolated offshore convection
to gradually approach the coast later tonight. Even so, this
activity should remain weak with the greater concentration holding
offshore.
..Darrow.. 12/13/2025
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains limited
across the country for much of the extended period, though localized
concerns may emerge along portions of the High Plains during the
middle of the upcoming work week. Long-range ensemble and cluster
guidance shows strong agreement in the continuation of broad-scale
northwesterly flow aloft over the CONUS through the weekend with a
shift to a more zonal flow regime through the end of next week. This
upper-level regime will favor cool conditions with sporadic
precipitation chances from the Pacific Northwest into the northern
Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Much of the Southwest and southern
Plains will likely see very limited rain/snow potential through the
next 8 days with above-normal temperatures possible.
...D6/Wed - Central to southern High Plains...
Latest ensemble guidance shows strong consensus in dry conditions
through the end of the upcoming work week for central and southern
High Plains. After a brief cool down this weekend, temperatures are
expected to return to the low 60s to low 70s by the middle of next
week, which falls within the 75-90th percentile of normal for
mid-December. Although ERCs are currently only in the 50-65th
percentile range, a gradual uptick in fuel readiness is anticipated
amid the dry/warm conditions. The upper-level flow regime aloft will
favor the development of lee cyclones across the northern Plains
followed by cold frontal passages during the D5/Tuesday to
D7/Thursday period. Each of these cyclones/frontal passages may
support sufficient winds for elevated to critical fire weather
concerns from eastern NM into CO and southeast WY.
A few deterministic solutions hint that the best potential for
elevated/critical winds may come on D6/Wed as a strong low develops
over the northern High Plains. However, the overall synoptic regime
favors lower-amplitude upper waves that have inherent lower
predictability at this range - as evidenced by poor agreement among
GEFS/ECENS members. Similarly, run-to-run variation remains somewhat
high among long-range deterministic solutions over the past 24-48.
While the potential for fire concerns is noted due to an
increasingly receptive fuel landscape, risk highlights are withheld
until a more clear consensus among solutions emerges.
..Moore.. 12/12/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains limited
across the country for much of the extended period, though localized
concerns may emerge along portions of the High Plains during the
middle of the upcoming work week. Long-range ensemble and cluster
guidance shows strong agreement in the continuation of broad-scale
northwesterly flow aloft over the CONUS through the weekend with a
shift to a more zonal flow regime through the end of next week. This
upper-level regime will favor cool conditions with sporadic
precipitation chances from the Pacific Northwest into the northern
Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Much of the Southwest and southern
Plains will likely see very limited rain/snow potential through the
next 8 days with above-normal temperatures possible.
...D6/Wed - Central to southern High Plains...
Latest ensemble guidance shows strong consensus in dry conditions
through the end of the upcoming work week for central and southern
High Plains. After a brief cool down this weekend, temperatures are
expected to return to the low 60s to low 70s by the middle of next
week, which falls within the 75-90th percentile of normal for
mid-December. Although ERCs are currently only in the 50-65th
percentile range, a gradual uptick in fuel readiness is anticipated
amid the dry/warm conditions. The upper-level flow regime aloft will
favor the development of lee cyclones across the northern Plains
followed by cold frontal passages during the D5/Tuesday to
D7/Thursday period. Each of these cyclones/frontal passages may
support sufficient winds for elevated to critical fire weather
concerns from eastern NM into CO and southeast WY.
A few deterministic solutions hint that the best potential for
elevated/critical winds may come on D6/Wed as a strong low develops
over the northern High Plains. However, the overall synoptic regime
favors lower-amplitude upper waves that have inherent lower
predictability at this range - as evidenced by poor agreement among
GEFS/ECENS members. Similarly, run-to-run variation remains somewhat
high among long-range deterministic solutions over the past 24-48.
While the potential for fire concerns is noted due to an
increasingly receptive fuel landscape, risk highlights are withheld
until a more clear consensus among solutions emerges.
..Moore.. 12/12/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The potential for fire weather concerns remains limited for tomorrow
across the country. Dry/windy conditions remain possible during the
afternoon hours across eastern CO/northeast NM where there is a
40-60% probability of exceeding elevated meteorological thresholds.
However, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are only
marginally receptive (ERC percentiles between the 50-65th
percentiles). Given the current fuel status and the modest
probability for sustained elevated conditions, fire weather
highlights remain withheld.
..Moore.. 12/12/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025/
...Synopsis...
On Saturday, an upper shortwave trough is expected to amplify in the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest. This will push colder air southward.
Some increase in mid-level winds will occur in the central High
Plains into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface low will
develop/evolve southward within the High Plains. Dry and breezy
conditions are probable in eastern Colorado into northeast New
Mexico. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible
at least briefly over generally unreceptive fuels. Winds will be
westerly/northwesterly but shift to northerly through the day as the
surface low/cold front moves southward. Colder air will lag the
shift to northerly winds.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The potential for fire weather concerns remains limited for tomorrow
across the country. Dry/windy conditions remain possible during the
afternoon hours across eastern CO/northeast NM where there is a
40-60% probability of exceeding elevated meteorological thresholds.
However, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are only
marginally receptive (ERC percentiles between the 50-65th
percentiles). Given the current fuel status and the modest
probability for sustained elevated conditions, fire weather
highlights remain withheld.
..Moore.. 12/12/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025/
...Synopsis...
On Saturday, an upper shortwave trough is expected to amplify in the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest. This will push colder air southward.
Some increase in mid-level winds will occur in the central High
Plains into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface low will
develop/evolve southward within the High Plains. Dry and breezy
conditions are probable in eastern Colorado into northeast New
Mexico. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible
at least briefly over generally unreceptive fuels. Winds will be
westerly/northwesterly but shift to northerly through the day as the
surface low/cold front moves southward. Colder air will lag the
shift to northerly winds.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the Lower
Texas Coast early Saturday morning.
...20Z Update...
No changes needed to ongoing forecast.
..Grams.. 12/12/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025/
...Discussion...
Morning water-vapor imagery indicates an upper-level jet streak
moving eastward across northern MX. The core of this feature will
advance into the western Gulf tonight -- remaining south of TX. In
response, a modest increase in southerly low-level flow will deepen
boundary-layer moisture/erode inhibition and yield weak
surface-based buoyancy over the western Gulf and Lower TX Coast
overnight. While most deep convection should be confined to the
higher low-level theta-e plume offshore, strengthening coastal
convergence amid the deepening low-level moisture may support a
couple storms over the immediate coastal areas in the 08-12Z time
frame. A remnant warm layer aloft and weak low/mid-level flow should
limit updraft intensity over land areas.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys
on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move across the eastern CONUS and offshore the
Atlantic coast Sunday night/early Monday. At the surface, strong
high pressure will continue to build south and east from the Mid-MO
Valley to the TN Valley. As this occurs, a weak cold front will move
southeast across GA/SC and FL. Richer boundary layer moisture will
remain confined to South FL and the Keys where showers and isolated
thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning. This activity may
persist into the afternoon while shifting southeast with time. Weak
instability and modest vertical shear will preclude severe
thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 12/12/2025
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across portions of
the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as South Florida and the
Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
...Gulf Coast...
An upper trough will deepen over the eastern half of the CONUS on
Saturday, though stronger west/northwesterly flow will be displaced
well to the north of the region. At the surface, strong high
pressure will build over the Plains into the Midwest, shunting a
weak cold front south across the western and central Gulf Coast
vicinity during the overnight hours. Modest moisture will be in
place along the TX coast into the central Gulf coast vicinity, with
richer tropical moisture across South FL and the Keys. This will
allow for modest destabilization ahead of the boundary. Weak forcing
for ascent, warm midlevel temperatures, and weak instability will
preclude strong updrafts. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorm
activity will be possible near the TX coast into southwest LA, as
well as South FL and the Keys.
..Leitman.. 12/12/2025
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across portions of
the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as South Florida and the
Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
...Gulf Coast...
An upper trough will deepen over the eastern half of the CONUS on
Saturday, though stronger west/northwesterly flow will be displaced
well to the north of the region. At the surface, strong high
pressure will build over the Plains into the Midwest, shunting a
weak cold front south across the western and central Gulf Coast
vicinity during the overnight hours. Modest moisture will be in
place along the TX coast into the central Gulf coast vicinity, with
richer tropical moisture across South FL and the Keys. This will
allow for modest destabilization ahead of the boundary. Weak forcing
for ascent, warm midlevel temperatures, and weak instability will
preclude strong updrafts. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorm
activity will be possible near the TX coast into southwest LA, as
well as South FL and the Keys.
..Leitman.. 12/12/2025
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the Lower
Texas Coast early Saturday morning.
...Discussion...
Morning water-vapor imagery indicates an upper-level jet streak
moving eastward across northern MX. The core of this feature will
advance into the western Gulf tonight -- remaining south of TX. In
response, a modest increase in southerly low-level flow will deepen
boundary-layer moisture/erode inhibition and yield weak
surface-based buoyancy over the western Gulf and Lower TX Coast
overnight. While most deep convection should be confined to the
higher low-level theta-e plume offshore, strengthening coastal
convergence amid the deepening low-level moisture may support a
couple storms over the immediate coastal areas in the 08-12Z time
frame. A remnant warm layer aloft and weak low/mid-level flow should
limit updraft intensity over land areas.
..Weinman.. 12/12/2025
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 121700Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Fire weather concerns remain limited for today. Breezy and
marginally dry conditions are beginning to develop behind a weak
cold front across portions of western TX. 15-20 mph winds coupled
with RH reductions into the 25-35% range may support a few areas of
elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon - mainly along the
I-20 corridor. However, fuels across this region remain only
modestly dry with ERC values near the 60-65th percentiles. As such,
the overall fire weather potential remains too limited for
highlights.
..Moore.. 12/12/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025/
...Synopsis...
A broad, low-amplitude upper trough will be positioned from the
northern Plains into the East today. In the West, a stationary upper
ridge will be present. Cooler surface temperatures will exist across
much of the CONUS east of the Divide. A modest cold front will push
into the southern High Plains. Locally dry and breezy conditions can
be expected in portions of the South Plains/Permian Basin. RH
reductions will be rather marginal as will fuel dryness, precluding
highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 121300Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...Discussion...
Cold/continental trajectories especially east of the Rockies will
generally preclude thunderstorm development. Regarding a potential
exception, gradual low-level moisture return will continue to occur
over the western Gulf toward coastal Texas ahead of a low-latitude
trough over northern Mexico. Convection will probably develop and
increase late tonight over the western Gulf, but modest forcing for
ascent and marginal thermodynamic profiles aloft should limit
thunderstorm potential over inland areas of Texas.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/12/2025
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with
offshore flow across then entire Gulf Coast and East Coast. This
dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS will result
in no thunderstorms east of the Rockies on Monday and Tuesday. Some
thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest where
some weak instability may be present.
By the middle of next week, moisture return should resume across
Texas. This may result in some thunderstorm activity by early
Wednesday in the east Texas vicinity. Beyond Wednesday, model
uncertainty increases substantially. However, severe potential will
still remain too low as even the most favorable mid-long range
guidance indicates minimal instability and low severe weather
threat.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with
offshore flow across then entire Gulf Coast and East Coast. This
dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS will result
in no thunderstorms east of the Rockies on Monday and Tuesday. Some
thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest where
some weak instability may be present.
By the middle of next week, moisture return should resume across
Texas. This may result in some thunderstorm activity by early
Wednesday in the east Texas vicinity. Beyond Wednesday, model
uncertainty increases substantially. However, severe potential will
still remain too low as even the most favorable mid-long range
guidance indicates minimal instability and low severe weather
threat.
Read more
