Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level northwesterly flow will remain in place across most of the U.S. today and tonight, as a trough moves southeastward into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the south-central U.S., as a cold airmass moves into the northern states. Overall, conditions will remain dry over most of the nation today and tonight, eliminating any chance for thunderstorms. ..Broyles.. 12/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper shortwave trough is expected to amplify in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. This will push colder air southward. Some increase in mid-level winds will occur in the central High Plains into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface low will develop/evolve southward within the High Plains. Dry and breezy conditions are probable in eastern Colorado into northeast New Mexico. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible at least briefly over generally unreceptive fuels. Winds will be westerly/northwesterly but shift to northerly through the day as the surface low/cold front moves southward. Colder air will lag the shift to northerly winds. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper shortwave trough is expected to amplify in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. This will push colder air southward. Some increase in mid-level winds will occur in the central High Plains into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface low will develop/evolve southward within the High Plains. Dry and breezy conditions are probable in eastern Colorado into northeast New Mexico. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible at least briefly over generally unreceptive fuels. Winds will be westerly/northwesterly but shift to northerly through the day as the surface low/cold front moves southward. Colder air will lag the shift to northerly winds. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad, low-amplitude upper trough will be positioned from the northern Plains into the East today. In the West, a stationary upper ridge will be present. Cooler surface temperatures will exist across much of the CONUS east of the Divide. A modest cold front will push into the southern High Plains. Locally dry and breezy conditions can be expected in portions of the South Plains/Permian Basin. RH reductions will be rather marginal as will fuel dryness, precluding highlights. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad, low-amplitude upper trough will be positioned from the northern Plains into the East today. In the West, a stationary upper ridge will be present. Cooler surface temperatures will exist across much of the CONUS east of the Divide. A modest cold front will push into the southern High Plains. Locally dry and breezy conditions can be expected in portions of the South Plains/Permian Basin. RH reductions will be rather marginal as will fuel dryness, precluding highlights. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast in the U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low will move across far northern New England this evening, as northwest flow remains in place from the Appalachians northwestward into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across the central and southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Over almost the entire nation, a relatively dry airmass will be in place, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development through daybreak on Friday. ..Broyles.. 12/12/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 11 22:03:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 11 22:03:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level ridging will shift eastward and amplify over the West this weekend, but weak upper troughing and embedded upper lows are likely to traverse across the Intermountain West and eventually over the southern/central Plains early to mid-next week. A strong jet along with another strong atmospheric river will likely impinge on the northwestern US early next week, with heights forecast to lower and the jet shifting farther south across the West mid to late next week. The southern half of the West, southern/central Plains, and portions of the Southeast are likely to receive little to no precipitation during the forecast period. ...Southern/Central High Plains... Locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of eastern New Mexico into west Texas Day 3/Saturday ahead/along an approaching cold front. Rain chances are likely to remain confined to portions of south/east Texas and along portions of the Gulf Coast into portions of the Deep South. Most of west/north Texas and portions of central Texas are likely to remain rain free, further curing fuels in these areas. As stronger flow aloft spreads across the West and into the Rockies Day 6/Tuesday - Day 8/Thursday, chances for critical fire weather conditions increase. Increased downslope flow and lee troughing will increase winds amid a dry airmass around mid-next week for multiple days. The timing/location of these conditions still remain uncertain, precluding introducing probabilities at this time. However, if forecast trends hold, probabilities for critical conditions will likely increase enough around mid-next week on portions of the southern/central High Plains, with the southern High Plains currently favored, to include risk areas in future outlooks. ...Portions of the Southeast... Dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, and Florida Day 4/Sunday as a cold front pushes through the Southeast. Additionally, post-frontal dry conditions are likely to remain into Day 6/Tuesday across portions of the Southeast. However, given the recent precipitation and limited overlap of elevated/locally critical winds/RH, no probabilities were included. ..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level ridging will shift eastward and amplify over the West this weekend, but weak upper troughing and embedded upper lows are likely to traverse across the Intermountain West and eventually over the southern/central Plains early to mid-next week. A strong jet along with another strong atmospheric river will likely impinge on the northwestern US early next week, with heights forecast to lower and the jet shifting farther south across the West mid to late next week. The southern half of the West, southern/central Plains, and portions of the Southeast are likely to receive little to no precipitation during the forecast period. ...Southern/Central High Plains... Locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of eastern New Mexico into west Texas Day 3/Saturday ahead/along an approaching cold front. Rain chances are likely to remain confined to portions of south/east Texas and along portions of the Gulf Coast into portions of the Deep South. Most of west/north Texas and portions of central Texas are likely to remain rain free, further curing fuels in these areas. As stronger flow aloft spreads across the West and into the Rockies Day 6/Tuesday - Day 8/Thursday, chances for critical fire weather conditions increase. Increased downslope flow and lee troughing will increase winds amid a dry airmass around mid-next week for multiple days. The timing/location of these conditions still remain uncertain, precluding introducing probabilities at this time. However, if forecast trends hold, probabilities for critical conditions will likely increase enough around mid-next week on portions of the southern/central High Plains, with the southern High Plains currently favored, to include risk areas in future outlooks. ...Portions of the Southeast... Dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, and Florida Day 4/Sunday as a cold front pushes through the Southeast. Additionally, post-frontal dry conditions are likely to remain into Day 6/Tuesday across portions of the Southeast. However, given the recent precipitation and limited overlap of elevated/locally critical winds/RH, no probabilities were included. ..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Friday. The pattern will remain fairly similar to D1, with ridging across the western US and troughing in the east. Breezy conditions will continue across the central and southern High Plains as a cold front shifts southward into towards coastal Texas through the end of the period. Some overlap of localized brief windy/dry conditions will be possible across portions of western Texas into eastern New Mexico. Overall, localized potential for any Elevated conditions and marginal fuels will preclude the need to include areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Friday. The pattern will remain fairly similar to D1, with ridging across the western US and troughing in the east. Breezy conditions will continue across the central and southern High Plains as a cold front shifts southward into towards coastal Texas through the end of the period. Some overlap of localized brief windy/dry conditions will be possible across portions of western Texas into eastern New Mexico. Overall, localized potential for any Elevated conditions and marginal fuels will preclude the need to include areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Friday. The pattern will remain fairly similar to D1, with ridging across the western US and troughing in the east. Breezy conditions will continue across the central and southern High Plains as a cold front shifts southward into towards coastal Texas through the end of the period. Some overlap of localized brief windy/dry conditions will be possible across portions of western Texas into eastern New Mexico. Overall, localized potential for any Elevated conditions and marginal fuels will preclude the need to include areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes needed. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025/ ...Discussion... A broad midlevel trough will move off the Eastern Seaboard today, while surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Southeast. Farther west, a weak surface low and accompanying cold front will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Mid MS Valley. Dry/stable conditions ahead of/behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes needed. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025/ ...Discussion... A broad midlevel trough will move off the Eastern Seaboard today, while surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Southeast. Farther west, a weak surface low and accompanying cold front will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Mid MS Valley. Dry/stable conditions ahead of/behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes needed. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025/ ...Discussion... A broad midlevel trough will move off the Eastern Seaboard today, while surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Southeast. Farther west, a weak surface low and accompanying cold front will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Mid MS Valley. Dry/stable conditions ahead of/behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across near South Florida and the Keys Saturday night. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will deepen as the western upper ridging moves inland through the forecast period on Saturday. A surface boundary extending along the western and central Gulf coast vicinity will move offshore by the end of the period. Weak warm advection and some modestly increasing midlevel westerly flow in the vicinity of this boundary may support isolated showers from the TX coast into portions of the central Gulf coast. However, forecast soundings indicate minimal instability (100-200 J/kg MUCAPE), largely stunted by warm midlevel temperatures. While shallow convection is possible, lightning appears unlikely. The exception may be across far southern FL and the Keys late in the period where richer boundary layer moisture will be in place. This will support greater instability (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) amid modest vertical shear ahead of the upper trough. A few thunderstorms may approach the Keys and South FL coast in the 08-12z time frame. ..Leitman.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across near South Florida and the Keys Saturday night. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will deepen as the western upper ridging moves inland through the forecast period on Saturday. A surface boundary extending along the western and central Gulf coast vicinity will move offshore by the end of the period. Weak warm advection and some modestly increasing midlevel westerly flow in the vicinity of this boundary may support isolated showers from the TX coast into portions of the central Gulf coast. However, forecast soundings indicate minimal instability (100-200 J/kg MUCAPE), largely stunted by warm midlevel temperatures. While shallow convection is possible, lightning appears unlikely. The exception may be across far southern FL and the Keys late in the period where richer boundary layer moisture will be in place. This will support greater instability (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) amid modest vertical shear ahead of the upper trough. A few thunderstorms may approach the Keys and South FL coast in the 08-12z time frame. ..Leitman.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated to locally critical winds/RH remain expected today in portions of eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. Some of those conditions already occurring at several stations along/east of the Front Range in Colorado into southeast Wyoming. 100/1000-hour fuels remain near to slightly above normal values and likely partly to mostly cloudy conditions may limit the receptiveness of 1/10-hour fuels. However, given the strength of the winds (gusts of 30-60 mph), fires in fine fuels cannot be ruled out. ..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. The pattern will favor high amplitude ridging across the western US and troughing across the eastern US. Westerly flow across the northern Rockies and surface troughing across the Plains will allow for some overlap of downslope flow with dry conditions across the central and southern High Plains. Across eastern Colorado into southeastern Wyoming, west-northwest sustained winds of 15-30 mph will overlap minimum RH of 15-30%. Across west Texas into central Oklahoma, areas of overlap of southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH of 15-25% will be possible. Fuels across both of these regions remain marginal and are not receptive to large fire spread, which will preclude inclusion of any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated to locally critical winds/RH remain expected today in portions of eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. Some of those conditions already occurring at several stations along/east of the Front Range in Colorado into southeast Wyoming. 100/1000-hour fuels remain near to slightly above normal values and likely partly to mostly cloudy conditions may limit the receptiveness of 1/10-hour fuels. However, given the strength of the winds (gusts of 30-60 mph), fires in fine fuels cannot be ruled out. ..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. The pattern will favor high amplitude ridging across the western US and troughing across the eastern US. Westerly flow across the northern Rockies and surface troughing across the Plains will allow for some overlap of downslope flow with dry conditions across the central and southern High Plains. Across eastern Colorado into southeastern Wyoming, west-northwest sustained winds of 15-30 mph will overlap minimum RH of 15-30%. Across west Texas into central Oklahoma, areas of overlap of southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH of 15-25% will be possible. Fuels across both of these regions remain marginal and are not receptive to large fire spread, which will preclude inclusion of any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more