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Storm Prediction Center

SPC Dec 11, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist near the Pacific coast while broad upper troughing continues across the eastern U.S. Stronger flow aloft will be displaced from the only appreciable, albeit modest, moisture along the Texas coastal plain. A surface low over the OH/TN Valleys will shift east toward the Mid-Atlantic late in the period, allowing a weak cold front to develop south toward the western and central Gulf coasts. Some thunderstorm activity could develop late in the period over the western Gulf waters as a weak shortwave impulse moves across northeast Mexico. However, thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore, precluding 10 percent general thunder probabilities. ..Leitman.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist near the Pacific coast while broad upper troughing continues across the eastern U.S. Stronger flow aloft will be displaced from the only appreciable, albeit modest, moisture along the Texas coastal plain. A surface low over the OH/TN Valleys will shift east toward the Mid-Atlantic late in the period, allowing a weak cold front to develop south toward the western and central Gulf coasts. Some thunderstorm activity could develop late in the period over the western Gulf waters as a weak shortwave impulse moves across northeast Mexico. However, thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore, precluding 10 percent general thunder probabilities. ..Leitman.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A broad midlevel trough will move off the Eastern Seaboard today, while surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Southeast. Farther west, a weak surface low and accompanying cold front will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Mid MS Valley. Dry/stable conditions ahead of/behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A broad midlevel trough will move off the Eastern Seaboard today, while surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Southeast. Farther west, a weak surface low and accompanying cold front will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Mid MS Valley. Dry/stable conditions ahead of/behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface high pressure and offshore flow will be maintained today across much of TX and the Southeast as an upper trough/low advances east-northeastward across New England into Canada. With cool and/or stable conditions expected across a large majority of the CONUS, thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range model output indicates that the amplified trough, likely digging through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at the outset of the period, will continue rapidly digging across the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, before pivoting offshore and supporting strong cyclogenesis through the northwestern Atlantic into early next week. In its wake, an initially expansive cold surface ridge, centered near the mid/lower Missouri Valley, may gradually weaken, but is forecast to continue southeastward into and across the offshore Atlantic, Florida Peninsula and much of the northern Gulf Basin. Thereafter, it still appears that mid/upper flow may trend more zonal, particularly across the northern U.S. and southern Canada, downstream of a blocking high that is forecast to be maintained, but become suppressed to the south of the Aleutians. Short wave developments embedded within this regime remain uncertain, but there is still at least some signal that a developing southerly return flow may support a modest influx of moisture off the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. This could contribute to thunderstorm development across parts of the Mid South through portions of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday into Thursday, ahead of a modest cold front. However, at this time, it appears that some combination of weak/limited destabilization and modest shear/forcing for ascent will tend to minimize the risk for severe storms. Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range model output indicates that the amplified trough, likely digging through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at the outset of the period, will continue rapidly digging across the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, before pivoting offshore and supporting strong cyclogenesis through the northwestern Atlantic into early next week. In its wake, an initially expansive cold surface ridge, centered near the mid/lower Missouri Valley, may gradually weaken, but is forecast to continue southeastward into and across the offshore Atlantic, Florida Peninsula and much of the northern Gulf Basin. Thereafter, it still appears that mid/upper flow may trend more zonal, particularly across the northern U.S. and southern Canada, downstream of a blocking high that is forecast to be maintained, but become suppressed to the south of the Aleutians. Short wave developments embedded within this regime remain uncertain, but there is still at least some signal that a developing southerly return flow may support a modest influx of moisture off the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. This could contribute to thunderstorm development across parts of the Mid South through portions of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday into Thursday, ahead of a modest cold front. However, at this time, it appears that some combination of weak/limited destabilization and modest shear/forcing for ascent will tend to minimize the risk for severe storms. Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, mostly weak, thunderstorm activity is possible across the Gulf Coast states Saturday into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the blocking high will generally maintain strength just to the north of Aleutians through this period. The evolution of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone to its east, across the northeastern Pacific, is more unclear, but guidance indicates that a downstream ridge will broaden eastward, inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast through the southern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Farther east, it still appears that a vigorous digging short wave trough will once again contribute to larger-scale mid-level trough amplification across the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday through Saturday night. An increasingly confluent mid-level regime, in the wake of the amplifying trough, is forecast to support the southeastward development of an expanding cold surface ridge to the east of the Rockies, across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through western slopes of the Appalachians. By late Saturday night, a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone, near the leading edge of the colder air, is forecast to approach southern Mid Atlantic through Gulf coastal areas. In lower latitudes, beneath a weak branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, a remnant preceding surface frontal zone may shift northward across the Florida Keys and southern peninsula by 12Z Sunday, downstream of broad mid-level troughing overspreading the Gulf Basin. ...Gulf Coast states... Although weak lapse rates and rather weak lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields seem likely to minimize the risk for severe weather, a substantive increase in boundary-layer moisture, in the presence of increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, may support increasing scattered thunderstorm development along the front, near the Florida Keys and southern peninsula, by late Saturday night. Elsewhere, guidance suggests that scattered thunderstorm development is possible near/offshore of lower through middle Texas coastal areas, at least early Saturday. Farther northeast, a narrow plume of elevated moisture return, off the modifying northwestern Gulf boundary layer, might contribute to weak destabilization sufficient for convection capable of producing lightning, mainly just ahead of the front as it approaches the Gulf coast late Saturday night. ..Kerr.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, mostly weak, thunderstorm activity is possible across the Gulf Coast states Saturday into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the blocking high will generally maintain strength just to the north of Aleutians through this period. The evolution of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone to its east, across the northeastern Pacific, is more unclear, but guidance indicates that a downstream ridge will broaden eastward, inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast through the southern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Farther east, it still appears that a vigorous digging short wave trough will once again contribute to larger-scale mid-level trough amplification across the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday through Saturday night. An increasingly confluent mid-level regime, in the wake of the amplifying trough, is forecast to support the southeastward development of an expanding cold surface ridge to the east of the Rockies, across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through western slopes of the Appalachians. By late Saturday night, a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone, near the leading edge of the colder air, is forecast to approach southern Mid Atlantic through Gulf coastal areas. In lower latitudes, beneath a weak branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, a remnant preceding surface frontal zone may shift northward across the Florida Keys and southern peninsula by 12Z Sunday, downstream of broad mid-level troughing overspreading the Gulf Basin. ...Gulf Coast states... Although weak lapse rates and rather weak lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields seem likely to minimize the risk for severe weather, a substantive increase in boundary-layer moisture, in the presence of increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, may support increasing scattered thunderstorm development along the front, near the Florida Keys and southern peninsula, by late Saturday night. Elsewhere, guidance suggests that scattered thunderstorm development is possible near/offshore of lower through middle Texas coastal areas, at least early Saturday. Farther northeast, a narrow plume of elevated moisture return, off the modifying northwestern Gulf boundary layer, might contribute to weak destabilization sufficient for convection capable of producing lightning, mainly just ahead of the front as it approaches the Gulf coast late Saturday night. ..Kerr.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, mostly weak, thunderstorm activity is possible across the Gulf Coast states Saturday into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the blocking high will generally maintain strength just to the north of Aleutians through this period. The evolution of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone to its east, across the northeastern Pacific, is more unclear, but guidance indicates that a downstream ridge will broaden eastward, inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast through the southern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Farther east, it still appears that a vigorous digging short wave trough will once again contribute to larger-scale mid-level trough amplification across the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday through Saturday night. An increasingly confluent mid-level regime, in the wake of the amplifying trough, is forecast to support the southeastward development of an expanding cold surface ridge to the east of the Rockies, across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through western slopes of the Appalachians. By late Saturday night, a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone, near the leading edge of the colder air, is forecast to approach southern Mid Atlantic through Gulf coastal areas. In lower latitudes, beneath a weak branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, a remnant preceding surface frontal zone may shift northward across the Florida Keys and southern peninsula by 12Z Sunday, downstream of broad mid-level troughing overspreading the Gulf Basin. ...Gulf Coast states... Although weak lapse rates and rather weak lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields seem likely to minimize the risk for severe weather, a substantive increase in boundary-layer moisture, in the presence of increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, may support increasing scattered thunderstorm development along the front, near the Florida Keys and southern peninsula, by late Saturday night. Elsewhere, guidance suggests that scattered thunderstorm development is possible near/offshore of lower through middle Texas coastal areas, at least early Saturday. Farther northeast, a narrow plume of elevated moisture return, off the modifying northwestern Gulf boundary layer, might contribute to weak destabilization sufficient for convection capable of producing lightning, mainly just ahead of the front as it approaches the Gulf coast late Saturday night. ..Kerr.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of the Aleutians, it still appears that the evolving flow may include a shortwave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, digging short wave troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great Lakes vicinity. However, in general, models indicate that the persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies may gradually lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic. In lower levels, a leading surge of colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday night. In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin. Beneath this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening will continue. In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become conducive to scattered deepening convective development prior to 12Z Saturday. ...Texas coastal areas... Latest guidance, including available forecast soundings from various models, still suggests that the environment may become increasing conducive to convection capable of producing lightning near lower through middle coastal areas late Friday night. Highest probabilities for the initiation of at least a couple of weak thunderstorms may be around 12Z Saturday, just east of the coastal waters. At least for now, thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10 percent, but, depending on trends in later model runs, it is possible than minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities may still need to be reintroduced. ..Kerr.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of the Aleutians, it still appears that the evolving flow may include a shortwave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, digging short wave troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great Lakes vicinity. However, in general, models indicate that the persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies may gradually lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic. In lower levels, a leading surge of colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday night. In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin. Beneath this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening will continue. In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become conducive to scattered deepening convective development prior to 12Z Saturday. ...Texas coastal areas... Latest guidance, including available forecast soundings from various models, still suggests that the environment may become increasing conducive to convection capable of producing lightning near lower through middle coastal areas late Friday night. Highest probabilities for the initiation of at least a couple of weak thunderstorms may be around 12Z Saturday, just east of the coastal waters. At least for now, thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10 percent, but, depending on trends in later model runs, it is possible than minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities may still need to be reintroduced. ..Kerr.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of the Aleutians, it still appears that the evolving flow may include a shortwave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, digging short wave troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great Lakes vicinity. However, in general, models indicate that the persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies may gradually lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic. In lower levels, a leading surge of colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday night. In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin. Beneath this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening will continue. In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become conducive to scattered deepening convective development prior to 12Z Saturday. ...Texas coastal areas... Latest guidance, including available forecast soundings from various models, still suggests that the environment may become increasing conducive to convection capable of producing lightning near lower through middle coastal areas late Friday night. Highest probabilities for the initiation of at least a couple of weak thunderstorms may be around 12Z Saturday, just east of the coastal waters. At least for now, thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10 percent, but, depending on trends in later model runs, it is possible than minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities may still need to be reintroduced. ..Kerr.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Thursday. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move eastward from the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic today, as northwest flow remains over most of the nation. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located from parts of the Great Plains to the southern and central Appalachians. The relatively cool and dry airmass will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development across the U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Thursday. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move eastward from the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic today, as northwest flow remains over most of the nation. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located from parts of the Great Plains to the southern and central Appalachians. The relatively cool and dry airmass will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development across the U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Thursday. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move eastward from the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic today, as northwest flow remains over most of the nation. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located from parts of the Great Plains to the southern and central Appalachians. The relatively cool and dry airmass will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development across the U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Friday. The pattern will remain fairly similar to D1, with ridging across the western US and troughing in the east. Breezy conditions will continue across the central and southern High Plains as a cold front shifts southward into towards coastal Texas through the end of the period. Some overlap of localized brief windy/dry conditions will be possible across portions of western Texas into eastern New Mexico. Overall, localized potential for any Elevated conditions and marginal fuels will preclude the need to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Friday. The pattern will remain fairly similar to D1, with ridging across the western US and troughing in the east. Breezy conditions will continue across the central and southern High Plains as a cold front shifts southward into towards coastal Texas through the end of the period. Some overlap of localized brief windy/dry conditions will be possible across portions of western Texas into eastern New Mexico. Overall, localized potential for any Elevated conditions and marginal fuels will preclude the need to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Friday. The pattern will remain fairly similar to D1, with ridging across the western US and troughing in the east. Breezy conditions will continue across the central and southern High Plains as a cold front shifts southward into towards coastal Texas through the end of the period. Some overlap of localized brief windy/dry conditions will be possible across portions of western Texas into eastern New Mexico. Overall, localized potential for any Elevated conditions and marginal fuels will preclude the need to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. The pattern will favor high amplitude ridging across the western US and troughing across the eastern US. Westerly flow across the northern Rockies and surface troughing across the Plains will allow for some overlap of downslope flow with dry conditions across the central and southern High Plains. Across eastern Colorado into southeastern Wyoming, west-northwest sustained winds of 15-30 mph will overlap minimum RH of 15-30%. Across west Texas into central Oklahoma, areas of overlap of southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH of 15-25% will be possible. Fuels across both of these regions remain marginal and are not receptive to large fire spread, which will preclude inclusion of any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
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