SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. The pattern
will favor high amplitude ridging across the western US and
troughing across the eastern US. Westerly flow across the northern
Rockies and surface troughing across the Plains will allow for some
overlap of downslope flow with dry conditions across the central and
southern High Plains. Across eastern Colorado into southeastern
Wyoming, west-northwest sustained winds of 15-30 mph will overlap
minimum RH of 15-30%. Across west Texas into central Oklahoma, areas
of overlap of southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH
of 15-25% will be possible. Fuels across both of these regions
remain marginal and are not receptive to large fire spread, which
will preclude inclusion of any areas at this time.
..Thornton.. 12/11/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. The pattern
will favor high amplitude ridging across the western US and
troughing across the eastern US. Westerly flow across the northern
Rockies and surface troughing across the Plains will allow for some
overlap of downslope flow with dry conditions across the central and
southern High Plains. Across eastern Colorado into southeastern
Wyoming, west-northwest sustained winds of 15-30 mph will overlap
minimum RH of 15-30%. Across west Texas into central Oklahoma, areas
of overlap of southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH
of 15-25% will be possible. Fuels across both of these regions
remain marginal and are not receptive to large fire spread, which
will preclude inclusion of any areas at this time.
..Thornton.. 12/11/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough, and an associated cold front will move eastward
across the eastern U.S. tonight as northwest flow remains over much
of the western and central U.S. Surface high pressure will remain
over the central U.S. The airmass across the continental U.S. will
remain relatively cool and dry, making conditions unfavorable for
thunderstorms through daybreak on Thursday.
..Broyles.. 12/11/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough, and an associated cold front will move eastward
across the eastern U.S. tonight as northwest flow remains over much
of the western and central U.S. Surface high pressure will remain
over the central U.S. The airmass across the continental U.S. will
remain relatively cool and dry, making conditions unfavorable for
thunderstorms through daybreak on Thursday.
..Broyles.. 12/11/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
Upper-level ridging will continue and potentially amplify over the
West through early next week, but weak upper lows/troughs are likely
to traverse through the ridging over the southern half of the West
this weekend into early next week. Upper-level troughing is likely
to continue over the Great Lakes and Northeast into mid-next week,
but a stronger upper low is forecast to move into these areas early
to mid-next week. The southern half of the West, southern/central
Plains, and much of the Southeast will receive little to no rainfall
through early next week.
Dry/breezy conditions are likely on portions of the southern/central
High Plains, most likely from southeast Colorado into eastern New
Mexico and far west Texas Day 4/Saturday ahead/along an approaching
cold front. Another round of dry/breezy conditions are likely early
to mid-next week, but the timing/magnitude of potential
elevated/critical winds/RH remains uncertain. Fuels continue to cure
due to recent dry weather, with increasing fire activity noted
during dry/breezy periods in portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Rain
chances increase along the Rio Grande and into central/east/north
Texas this weekend and early to mid-next week, but how much rain and
how far north/west it extends remains uncertain. However, heavy rain
is unlikely in west/central/north Texas.
Dry cold frontal passages late this week and early next week will
continue to dry fuels across the Southeast. However, recent rainfall
and the lack of overlap of elevated/critical winds/RH preclude
introducing probabilities.
..Nauslar.. 12/10/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
Upper-level ridging will continue and potentially amplify over the
West through early next week, but weak upper lows/troughs are likely
to traverse through the ridging over the southern half of the West
this weekend into early next week. Upper-level troughing is likely
to continue over the Great Lakes and Northeast into mid-next week,
but a stronger upper low is forecast to move into these areas early
to mid-next week. The southern half of the West, southern/central
Plains, and much of the Southeast will receive little to no rainfall
through early next week.
Dry/breezy conditions are likely on portions of the southern/central
High Plains, most likely from southeast Colorado into eastern New
Mexico and far west Texas Day 4/Saturday ahead/along an approaching
cold front. Another round of dry/breezy conditions are likely early
to mid-next week, but the timing/magnitude of potential
elevated/critical winds/RH remains uncertain. Fuels continue to cure
due to recent dry weather, with increasing fire activity noted
during dry/breezy periods in portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Rain
chances increase along the Rio Grande and into central/east/north
Texas this weekend and early to mid-next week, but how much rain and
how far north/west it extends remains uncertain. However, heavy rain
is unlikely in west/central/north Texas.
Dry cold frontal passages late this week and early next week will
continue to dry fuels across the Southeast. However, recent rainfall
and the lack of overlap of elevated/critical winds/RH preclude
introducing probabilities.
..Nauslar.. 12/10/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely across portions of
southeast Wyoming and eastern Colorado where west-northwest
sustained winds of 15-30 mph gusting 25-50 mph and minimum RH of
15-30% are forecast. Elevated winds/RH are also likely from
northwest Texas into southern/central Oklahoma tomorrow amid dry
return flow, with southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and minimum
RH of 18-30%. However, given the marginal fuel conditions and
perhaps more local coverage of elevated winds/RH, Elevated areas
were not added.
..Nauslar.. 12/10/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Thursday. The
pattern will continue to favor high amplitude ridging in the west
and troughing in the east. Westerly flow across the northern Rockies
and surface troughing across the Plains will allow for some overlap
of downslope flow with dry conditions across the central and
southern High Plains. Fuels across these regions are not receptive
to large fire spread, which will help mitigate any fire weather
concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely across portions of
southeast Wyoming and eastern Colorado where west-northwest
sustained winds of 15-30 mph gusting 25-50 mph and minimum RH of
15-30% are forecast. Elevated winds/RH are also likely from
northwest Texas into southern/central Oklahoma tomorrow amid dry
return flow, with southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and minimum
RH of 18-30%. However, given the marginal fuel conditions and
perhaps more local coverage of elevated winds/RH, Elevated areas
were not added.
..Nauslar.. 12/10/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Thursday. The
pattern will continue to favor high amplitude ridging in the west
and troughing in the east. Westerly flow across the northern Rockies
and surface troughing across the Plains will allow for some overlap
of downslope flow with dry conditions across the central and
southern High Plains. Fuels across these regions are not receptive
to large fire spread, which will help mitigate any fire weather
concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
No changes.
..Hart.. 12/10/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough, and accompanying intense jet streak with 500 mb
winds over 100 kt, will continue eastward through the OH Valley
today and off the Northeast coast by early tomorrow. Surface low
associated with this wave will progress northeastward from its
current position over southeastern Lower MI/southwestern Ontario
along the St. Lawrence Valley today, continuing through ME and into
the Canadian Maritimes by early tomorrow. An extensive cold front
extending southeastward from this low will push quickly
eastward/southeastward through the southern Plains and much of the
eastern CONUS, ending the period well off the East Coast.
Passage of this cold front will reinforce the dry and stable
conditions across the majority of the CONUS, precluding
thunderstorms. Modest low-level moisture will remain over
central/southern FL throughout the day, but warm low to mid-level
temperatures will prohibit deep convection, limiting the
thunderstorm potential.
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
No changes.
..Hart.. 12/10/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough, and accompanying intense jet streak with 500 mb
winds over 100 kt, will continue eastward through the OH Valley
today and off the Northeast coast by early tomorrow. Surface low
associated with this wave will progress northeastward from its
current position over southeastern Lower MI/southwestern Ontario
along the St. Lawrence Valley today, continuing through ME and into
the Canadian Maritimes by early tomorrow. An extensive cold front
extending southeastward from this low will push quickly
eastward/southeastward through the southern Plains and much of the
eastern CONUS, ending the period well off the East Coast.
Passage of this cold front will reinforce the dry and stable
conditions across the majority of the CONUS, precluding
thunderstorms. Modest low-level moisture will remain over
central/southern FL throughout the day, but warm low to mid-level
temperatures will prohibit deep convection, limiting the
thunderstorm potential.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper ridge over the eastern Pacific will meander east
through the forecast period while broad upper troughing persists
across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a weak low over the Ohio
Valley Friday morning will move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast late
Friday night/early Saturday morning. A trailing cold front will
develop south across TX and the Lower MS Valley. While modest
boundary layer moisture will reside across the TX coastal plain, any
appreciable instability will remain offshore over the western Gulf.
A few thunderstorms could occur late in the forecast period
offshore, but any lighting activity along the coast and immediately
inland should remain limited.
..Leitman.. 12/10/2025
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper ridge over the eastern Pacific will meander east
through the forecast period while broad upper troughing persists
across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a weak low over the Ohio
Valley Friday morning will move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast late
Friday night/early Saturday morning. A trailing cold front will
develop south across TX and the Lower MS Valley. While modest
boundary layer moisture will reside across the TX coastal plain, any
appreciable instability will remain offshore over the western Gulf.
A few thunderstorms could occur late in the forecast period
offshore, but any lighting activity along the coast and immediately
inland should remain limited.
..Leitman.. 12/10/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A broad expanse of northwesterly flow aloft will stretch from the
Pacific Northwest to the Southeast on Thursday as an upper ridge
builds over the eastern Pacific and an upper trough moves offshore
the Atlantic coast. Prior surface cold frontal intrusions into the
Gulf will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the
Rockies. With a dry and stable boundary layer in place,
thunderstorms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 12/10/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A broad expanse of northwesterly flow aloft will stretch from the
Pacific Northwest to the Southeast on Thursday as an upper ridge
builds over the eastern Pacific and an upper trough moves offshore
the Atlantic coast. Prior surface cold frontal intrusions into the
Gulf will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the
Rockies. With a dry and stable boundary layer in place,
thunderstorms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 12/10/2025
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MD 2257 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 2257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Areas affected...portions of central into eastern New York
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 101407Z - 101800Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow is expected to persist into the
late morning and perhaps early afternoon hours. A few localized
instances of 1 inch/hour snowfall rates may occur.
DISCUSSION...A primary band of moderate to heavy snow has become
established over much of New York as a surface low approaches from
the Great Lakes, resulting in increased low-level WAA over the
Hudson Valley. At the terminus of the WAA resides strong 925-850 mb
convergence, which may be providing enhanced lift within a
saturated, sub-freezing troposphere. As such, efficient dendritic
growth should result in widespread moderate to occasionally heavy
snow through the morning hours, perhaps extending into early
afternoon, before the aforementioned WAA axis shifts east, away from
the Hudson Valley. Localized instances of 1 inch/hour snowfall rates
are possible.
..Squitieri.. 12/10/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 42817652 43447630 43697517 43627428 43527373 43437354
43127321 42597346 42327392 42237492 42327562 42527613
42767646 42817652
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous
discussion for more details.
..Nauslar.. 12/10/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. The pattern will be defined by a longwave trough across the
east and a high amplitude ridge across the west. Between these two
features, generally northerly flow will over spread the Plains amid
surface high pressure. Some areas of dry/breezy conditions will be
possible across western and north-central Texas where daytime highs
are expected to be warm. Fire-weather concerns will be limited by
lack of receptive fuels for large wild-fire spread.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous
discussion for more details.
..Nauslar.. 12/10/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. The pattern will be defined by a longwave trough across the
east and a high amplitude ridge across the west. Between these two
features, generally northerly flow will over spread the Plains amid
surface high pressure. Some areas of dry/breezy conditions will be
possible across western and north-central Texas where daytime highs
are expected to be warm. Fire-weather concerns will be limited by
lack of receptive fuels for large wild-fire spread.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough, and accompanying intense jet streak with 500 mb
winds over 100 kt, will continue eastward through the OH Valley
today and off the Northeast coast by early tomorrow. Surface low
associated with this wave will progress northeastward from its
current position over southeastern Lower MI/southwestern Ontario
along the St. Lawrence Valley today, continuing through ME and into
the Canadian Maritimes by early tomorrow. An extensive cold front
extending southeastward from this low will push quickly
eastward/southeastward through the southern Plains and much of the
eastern CONUS, ending the period well off the East Coast.
Passage of this cold front will reinforce the dry and stable
conditions across the majority of the CONUS, precluding
thunderstorms. Modest low-level moisture will remain over
central/southern FL throughout the day, but warm low to mid-level
temperatures will prohibit deep convection, limiting the
thunderstorm potential.
..Mosier/Moore.. 12/10/2025
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