SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough, and accompanying intense jet streak with 500 mb
winds over 100 kt, will continue eastward through the OH Valley
today and off the Northeast coast by early tomorrow. Surface low
associated with this wave will progress northeastward from its
current position over southeastern Lower MI/southwestern Ontario
along the St. Lawrence Valley today, continuing through ME and into
the Canadian Maritimes by early tomorrow. An extensive cold front
extending southeastward from this low will push quickly
eastward/southeastward through the southern Plains and much of the
eastern CONUS, ending the period well off the East Coast.
Passage of this cold front will reinforce the dry and stable
conditions across the majority of the CONUS, precluding
thunderstorms. Modest low-level moisture will remain over
central/southern FL throughout the day, but warm low to mid-level
temperatures will prohibit deep convection, limiting the
thunderstorm potential.
..Mosier/Moore.. 12/10/2025
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Rich low-level moisture will remain confined to parts of south FL,
the Keys, and offshore waters today. With a reinforcing cold front
expected to clear the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts through tonight,
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS appears minimal.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 12/10/2025
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Rich low-level moisture will remain confined to parts of south FL,
the Keys, and offshore waters today. With a reinforcing cold front
expected to clear the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts through tonight,
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS appears minimal.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 12/10/2025
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Rich low-level moisture will remain confined to parts of south FL,
the Keys, and offshore waters today. With a reinforcing cold front
expected to clear the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts through tonight,
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS appears minimal.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 12/10/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging
short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level
trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this
coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for
significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the
northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime
in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold
surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the
offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.
Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a
bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North
America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among
the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the
upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within
splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies.
After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early
next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that
may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across
and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi
Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for
severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally
low through at least this period.
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging
short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level
trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this
coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for
significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the
northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime
in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold
surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the
offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.
Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a
bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North
America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among
the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the
upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within
splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies.
After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early
next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that
may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across
and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi
Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for
severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally
low through at least this period.
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Friday through Friday night, aside from some possible weak
thunderstorm activity near Texas coastal areas prior to daybreak
Saturday.
...Discussion...
Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of
the Aleutians, it appears that the evolving flow may include a short
wave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific
Northwest during this period. As this occurs, digging short wave
troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level
troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great
Lakes vicinity. However, in general, models indicate that the
persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies will continue
to lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient
tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys and Mid Atlantic. In lower levels, a leading surge of
colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the
Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday
night.
In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern
periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern
Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the
northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin. Beneath
this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening
will continue. In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to
develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is
possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become
conducive to weak thunderstorm activity.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.
...Discussion...
Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high building near
and to the north of the Aleutians, mid-level developments across the
eastern Pacific into western North America are still forecast to
include a belt of strong flow veering to an increasing northwesterly
component across British Columbia and adjacent portions of the
Pacific Northwest, through portions of the Canadian Prairies and
northern U.S. Great Plains during this period. One or two short
wave perturbations on the leading edge of this regime will begin to
reinforce broad downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley
into western Atlantic.
Mid-level flow is likely to remain cyclonic as far south as the Gulf
Coast states, but heights across much of the South may tend to rise
in the wake of a significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast
to migrate out of the Northeast through the Canadian Maritimes.
While progressing farther offshore to the north, it still appears
that the primary trailing frontal zone may stall/retreat
northeastward across the southern Atlantic Coast through Tennessee
Valley vicinity, while advancing southward through the lower
Missouri Valley and central Great Plains vicinity by late Thursday
night. At the same time, much colder air probably will continue to
gradually nose southward to the lee of the Canadian and northern
U.S. Rockies.
Models indicate that a remnant preceding front will become more
diffuse across the central through northwestern Gulf Basin, and a
gradual boundary-layer modification may continue across the
northwestern Gulf as a weak southerly return flow begins to develop.
Some boundary-layer moistening appears possible inland across Texas
coastal areas, but forecast soundings indicate that this will occur
beneath pronounced warm/dry layers in the lower/mid-troposphere,
precluding appreciable destabilization through this period.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears low today.
...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern will feature a ridge across the western
CONUS with a trough across the east. A surface low will deepen below
990mb as it moves from the southern Great Lakes to the Northeast
during the period. A cold front will extend southwest from this
surface low and bring a reinforcing cold/dry airmass to much of the
central and eastern CONUS.
Significant moisture (60F dewpoints) will be relegated to far south
Florida. However, even here, northerly flow should persist within
the post frontal airmass. This should keep any thunderstorm
potential well offshore. A brief period of southerly return flow
across the western Gulf may bring some near 60F dewpoints to the
Texas coast, but this should be short-lived as a reinforcing cold
front moves offshore this evening.
Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today.
..Bentley/Thornton.. 12/10/2025
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Thursday. The
pattern will continue to favor high amplitude ridging in the west
and troughing in the east. Westerly flow across the northern Rockies
and surface troughing across the Plains will allow for some overlap
of downslope flow with dry conditions across the central and
southern High Plains. Fuels across these regions are not receptive
to large fire spread, which will help mitigate any fire weather
concerns.
..Thornton.. 12/10/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. The pattern will be defined by a longwave trough across the
east and a high amplitude ridge across the west. Between these two
features, generally northerly flow will over spread the Plains amid
surface high pressure. Some areas of dry/breezy conditions will be
possible across western and north-central Texas where daytime highs
are expected to be warm. Fire-weather concerns will be limited by
lack of receptive fuels for large wild-fire spread.
..Thornton.. 12/10/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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MD 2256 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Areas affected...eastern Minnesota...western/central Wisconsin
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 100112Z - 100415Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow to continue through the evening with occasional
1"/hr rates.
DISCUSSION...Heavy to moderate snow continues to be reported across
portions of eastern MN into central WI as of 01z. The surface low
continues to shift south and eastward, currently located over
southern MN. 750-850 mb frontogenesis is maximized across far
eastern MN into portions of central WI. 00z sounding from MPX shows
a nearly saturated dendritic growth zone. Moist profiles and
continued frontal support will continue to bring potential for heavy
bands with 1"/hr rates over the next few hours. As the surface low
continues to shift south and east, rates will decrease through the
late evening/overnight.
..Thornton.. 12/10/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 45168976 45809185 45779315 44449368 44309332 43519148
43189063 42818973 43488872 44668880 45168976
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Discussion...
A fast moving surface low, associated with a strong mid-level jet
streak, will continue to move east-southeastward toward the western
Great Lakes this evening. Forecast soundings show some very weak
elevated instability within the warm sector, but it does not appear
instability will be deep enough for sufficient charge separation for
any thunderstorm activity. Elsewhere in the CONUS, thunderstorm
activity will be minimal without significant instability in place.
Some lightning has occurred south of the Florida Keys, in the
vicinity of the stalled surface front. However, the lightning
activity has remained well offshore and is expected to remain so.
..Bentley.. 12/10/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Discussion...
A fast moving surface low, associated with a strong mid-level jet
streak, will continue to move east-southeastward toward the western
Great Lakes this evening. Forecast soundings show some very weak
elevated instability within the warm sector, but it does not appear
instability will be deep enough for sufficient charge separation for
any thunderstorm activity. Elsewhere in the CONUS, thunderstorm
activity will be minimal without significant instability in place.
Some lightning has occurred south of the Florida Keys, in the
vicinity of the stalled surface front. However, the lightning
activity has remained well offshore and is expected to remain so.
..Bentley.. 12/10/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
Upper-level ridging is likely to continue over the West with mostly
upper-level troughing over the Great Lakes, Northeast, and into the
Southeast through the weekend. Weak upper lows may traverse through
the ridge across the southern half of the West late this weekend
into early next week. Much of the Southwest, southern/central
Plains, and west/north Texas are likely to receive little to no
precipitation during the forecast period.
While downslope flow with lee troughing will enhance at times during
the forecast period, including on Day 3/Thursday and over the
weekend, on portions of the southern/central High Plains. However,
probabilities of elevated/critical winds/RH overlapping areas with
receptive fuels remain too low to include probabilities.
Portions of the Southeast will receive little to no rainfall during
the forecast period. Additionally, multiple dry cold frontal
passages with dry airmasses filtering in behind are expected for the
Southeast over the next week. However, recent rainfall and weak
winds will mitigate fire weather concerns.
..Nauslar.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
Upper-level ridging is likely to continue over the West with mostly
upper-level troughing over the Great Lakes, Northeast, and into the
Southeast through the weekend. Weak upper lows may traverse through
the ridge across the southern half of the West late this weekend
into early next week. Much of the Southwest, southern/central
Plains, and west/north Texas are likely to receive little to no
precipitation during the forecast period.
While downslope flow with lee troughing will enhance at times during
the forecast period, including on Day 3/Thursday and over the
weekend, on portions of the southern/central High Plains. However,
probabilities of elevated/critical winds/RH overlapping areas with
receptive fuels remain too low to include probabilities.
Portions of the Southeast will receive little to no rainfall during
the forecast period. Additionally, multiple dry cold frontal
passages with dry airmasses filtering in behind are expected for the
Southeast over the next week. However, recent rainfall and weak
winds will mitigate fire weather concerns.
..Nauslar.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
Upper-level ridging is likely to continue over the West with mostly
upper-level troughing over the Great Lakes, Northeast, and into the
Southeast through the weekend. Weak upper lows may traverse through
the ridge across the southern half of the West late this weekend
into early next week. Much of the Southwest, southern/central
Plains, and west/north Texas are likely to receive little to no
precipitation during the forecast period.
While downslope flow with lee troughing will enhance at times during
the forecast period, including on Day 3/Thursday and over the
weekend, on portions of the southern/central High Plains. However,
probabilities of elevated/critical winds/RH overlapping areas with
receptive fuels remain too low to include probabilities.
Portions of the Southeast will receive little to no rainfall during
the forecast period. Additionally, multiple dry cold frontal
passages with dry airmasses filtering in behind are expected for the
Southeast over the next week. However, recent rainfall and weak
winds will mitigate fire weather concerns.
..Nauslar.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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MD 2255 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Areas affected...portions of northern into central Minnesota
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 091756Z - 092300Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow is expected to begin over the next
few hours. 1 inch/hour snowfall rates are possible.
DISCUSSION...A surface-850 mb low is beginning to intensify while
shifting southeastward across ND, which is resulting in increased
low-level warm-air/moisture advection within a sub-freezing
troposphere over northern to central MN. A primary band of at least
light to moderate snow is already in place along the ND/MN border,
and this band is expected to intensify with increased 850-700 mb
frontogenesis over central MN over the next several hours. Increased
saturation of the dendritic growth zone should support widespread
moderate snowfall rates, but at least a few instances of heavy snow
are possible, including snowfall rates locally exceeding 1
inch/hour.
..Squitieri.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 47919705 48009693 48069675 48079663 48049635 47949602
47629508 47199421 46929378 46239305 45759294 45389305
45229348 45199421 45259516 45429561 45799613 47029686
47419699 47719709 47919705
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
No changes.
..Hart.. 12/09/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper pattern will remain active today/tonight as a low-amplitude
shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward through the OH Valley
ahead of a more substantial shortwave trough moving southeastward
out of the Canadian Prairies and through the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. By 12Z Wednesday, this second shortwave will likely
extend from the Lake Michigan vicinity southwestward into northeast
KS/northwest MO.
Progression of this second shortwave will reinforce the already dry
and stable airmass in place across much of CONUS, precluding
thunderstorms. Some modest moisture return is anticipated late
tonight/early tomorrow across the western Gulf, but much of this
moisture will remain offshore. Some low-level moisture also remains
in place across south FL, even in the wake of the cold front now
settled across the Florida Straits. Even with this low-level
moisture still in place, modest and shallow buoyancy, and limited
forcing for ascent should preclude thunderstorms across south FL
today.
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