Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper-level trough will deepen over the eastern CONUS with strong northwesterly flow upstream. At the surface, high pressure will build in over the central CONUS in the wake of a cold-frontal passage. Despite a shift to northerly surface winds over southern Plains, temperatures are still expected to warm into the upper 50s F. Given the strong northerly to northeasterly winds just above the surface, vertical mixing could lead to gusty winds around midday as RH values fall below 25% across portions of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Even with dry and breezy conditions, fuels across the region are generally not receptive for large wildfires, limiting fire-weather concerns. ..Jirak.. 12/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper-level trough will deepen over the eastern CONUS with strong northwesterly flow upstream. At the surface, high pressure will build in over the central CONUS in the wake of a cold-frontal passage. Despite a shift to northerly surface winds over southern Plains, temperatures are still expected to warm into the upper 50s F. Given the strong northerly to northeasterly winds just above the surface, vertical mixing could lead to gusty winds around midday as RH values fall below 25% across portions of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Even with dry and breezy conditions, fuels across the region are generally not receptive for large wildfires, limiting fire-weather concerns. ..Jirak.. 12/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will move across the northern Great Plains today within a northwesterly flow regime aloft. In response at the surface, a low pressure system will track from southern Saskatchewan toward the Great Lakes, with a pressure trough extending southward through western Texas. To the west of this surface trough, dry and breezy conditions will prevail within a downslope-flow regime across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. While localized elevated meteorological conditions are possible across this region, fuel indices are generally not supportive of large wildfires, precluding the need for fire-weather highlights. ..Jirak.. 12/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will move across the northern Great Plains today within a northwesterly flow regime aloft. In response at the surface, a low pressure system will track from southern Saskatchewan toward the Great Lakes, with a pressure trough extending southward through western Texas. To the west of this surface trough, dry and breezy conditions will prevail within a downslope-flow regime across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. While localized elevated meteorological conditions are possible across this region, fuel indices are generally not supportive of large wildfires, precluding the need for fire-weather highlights. ..Jirak.. 12/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will move across the northern Great Plains today within a northwesterly flow regime aloft. In response at the surface, a low pressure system will track from southern Saskatchewan toward the Great Lakes, with a pressure trough extending southward through western Texas. To the west of this surface trough, dry and breezy conditions will prevail within a downslope-flow regime across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. While localized elevated meteorological conditions are possible across this region, fuel indices are generally not supportive of large wildfires, precluding the need for fire-weather highlights. ..Jirak.. 12/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will move across the northern Great Plains today within a northwesterly flow regime aloft. In response at the surface, a low pressure system will track from southern Saskatchewan toward the Great Lakes, with a pressure trough extending southward through western Texas. To the west of this surface trough, dry and breezy conditions will prevail within a downslope-flow regime across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. While localized elevated meteorological conditions are possible across this region, fuel indices are generally not supportive of large wildfires, precluding the need for fire-weather highlights. ..Jirak.. 12/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another mid-level high will begin to build near the Aleutians during this period, but little change is forecast to the general downstream flow, inland across the Pacific coast into portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains, through at least Wednesday night. Farther downstream, it still appears that large-scale mid/upper troughing will be reinforced across and east of the Mississippi Valley by at least a few digging short wave perturbations. There remains notable spread concerning the smaller-scale developments, including at least one compact, but vigorous, perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity, and a couple of others of northern mid-latitude Pacific origin progressing through the flow to its south through southeast. Regardless, related surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. Stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S., with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 12/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another mid-level high will begin to build near the Aleutians during this period, but little change is forecast to the general downstream flow, inland across the Pacific coast into portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains, through at least Wednesday night. Farther downstream, it still appears that large-scale mid/upper troughing will be reinforced across and east of the Mississippi Valley by at least a few digging short wave perturbations. There remains notable spread concerning the smaller-scale developments, including at least one compact, but vigorous, perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity, and a couple of others of northern mid-latitude Pacific origin progressing through the flow to its south through southeast. Regardless, related surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. Stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S., with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 12/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another mid-level high will begin to build near the Aleutians during this period, but little change is forecast to the general downstream flow, inland across the Pacific coast into portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains, through at least Wednesday night. Farther downstream, it still appears that large-scale mid/upper troughing will be reinforced across and east of the Mississippi Valley by at least a few digging short wave perturbations. There remains notable spread concerning the smaller-scale developments, including at least one compact, but vigorous, perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity, and a couple of others of northern mid-latitude Pacific origin progressing through the flow to its south through southeast. Regardless, related surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. Stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S., with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 12/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across the FL Straits near a quasi-stationary front that progressed offshore of the FL Peninsula/Keys on Monday. ..Grams/Jirak.. 12/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across the FL Straits near a quasi-stationary front that progressed offshore of the FL Peninsula/Keys on Monday. ..Grams/Jirak.. 12/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across the FL Straits near a quasi-stationary front that progressed offshore of the FL Peninsula/Keys on Monday. ..Grams/Jirak.. 12/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible tonight. ...Discussion... With the surface cold front having recently pushed off the FL Peninsula/Keys, dry/stable conditions will mitigate lightning-producing convection across the CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible offshore across the FL Straits as the boundary slows/stalls. ..Grams.. 12/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible tonight. ...Discussion... With the surface cold front having recently pushed off the FL Peninsula/Keys, dry/stable conditions will mitigate lightning-producing convection across the CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible offshore across the FL Straits as the boundary slows/stalls. ..Grams.. 12/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible tonight. ...Discussion... With the surface cold front having recently pushed off the FL Peninsula/Keys, dry/stable conditions will mitigate lightning-producing convection across the CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible offshore across the FL Straits as the boundary slows/stalls. ..Grams.. 12/09/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 8 22:08:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 8 22:08:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Upper and mid-level flow pattern will be characterized by persistent troughing across the eastern U.S. with ridging over the West. An embedded mid-level short wave within the broad northwesterly flow regime along with a strong surface low moving through the Great Lakes region, will usher in a cold, continental air mass into much of the eastern U.S. behind a robust cold front Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. This should reduce the overall fire weather threat across east CONUS. The enhanced northwesterly mid-level jet over the central U.S. along with surface troughing in the High Plains will promote stronger downslope winds in the lee of the Central Rockies through Day 5/Friday. Limited RH reductions coupled with an unsupportive fuelscape will likely mitigate a broader fire weather threat. Thus, introduction of critical probabilities were not warranted. Forecast confidence remains high across the Southwest as dry conditions with above normal temperatures under an expanding ridge aloft persists across the West. However, generally weak surface pressure gradients and marginal fuels within the region will mitigate overall fire weather concerns west of the Continental Divide through early next week. The dry conditions will continue to exert influence on fuels across the Southern Plains which could contribute to increasing wildfire potential into eastern NM/West TX through this week. Some forecast uncertainty exists in strength of lee troughing and thus wind magnitude across the Southern Plains on Day 4/Thursday and Day 6/Saturday, precluding introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 12/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Upper and mid-level flow pattern will be characterized by persistent troughing across the eastern U.S. with ridging over the West. An embedded mid-level short wave within the broad northwesterly flow regime along with a strong surface low moving through the Great Lakes region, will usher in a cold, continental air mass into much of the eastern U.S. behind a robust cold front Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. This should reduce the overall fire weather threat across east CONUS. The enhanced northwesterly mid-level jet over the central U.S. along with surface troughing in the High Plains will promote stronger downslope winds in the lee of the Central Rockies through Day 5/Friday. Limited RH reductions coupled with an unsupportive fuelscape will likely mitigate a broader fire weather threat. Thus, introduction of critical probabilities were not warranted. Forecast confidence remains high across the Southwest as dry conditions with above normal temperatures under an expanding ridge aloft persists across the West. However, generally weak surface pressure gradients and marginal fuels within the region will mitigate overall fire weather concerns west of the Continental Divide through early next week. The dry conditions will continue to exert influence on fuels across the Southern Plains which could contribute to increasing wildfire potential into eastern NM/West TX through this week. Some forecast uncertainty exists in strength of lee troughing and thus wind magnitude across the Southern Plains on Day 4/Thursday and Day 6/Saturday, precluding introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 12/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Increasing west to southwest winds are still expected for portions of western TX and southeastern NM Day 2/Tuesday in response to increasing pressure gradient from surface troughing across the Plains. West to southwest winds of 10-20 mph in conjunction with downslope drying and resulting minimum relative humidity of 15-20 percent, should promote elevated fire weather conditions for the TX Permian Basin and leeward slopes of the Trans-Pecos region by Tuesday afternoon. However, fuel indices remain relatively benign despite several days of drying. The limited fuel support should mitigate a broader fire weather threat across the Southern Plains. ..Williams.. 12/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface troughing across the Plains will bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of western Texas on D2/Tuesday. Recent days of dry and breezy conditions across western Texas from the Caprock south to the Permian Basin have allowed fuels to dry steadily. Forecast ERCs indicate fuels will be around the 50th-60th percentile across some portions of these regions on Tuesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent may briefly overlap winds around 10-15 mph for localized Elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, it doesn't appear that this overlap of drying fuels and elevated meteorological conditions will be widespread enough for inclusion of any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more