Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Increasing west to southwest winds are still expected for portions of western TX and southeastern NM Day 2/Tuesday in response to increasing pressure gradient from surface troughing across the Plains. West to southwest winds of 10-20 mph in conjunction with downslope drying and resulting minimum relative humidity of 15-20 percent, should promote elevated fire weather conditions for the TX Permian Basin and leeward slopes of the Trans-Pecos region by Tuesday afternoon. However, fuel indices remain relatively benign despite several days of drying. The limited fuel support should mitigate a broader fire weather threat across the Southern Plains. ..Williams.. 12/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface troughing across the Plains will bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of western Texas on D2/Tuesday. Recent days of dry and breezy conditions across western Texas from the Caprock south to the Permian Basin have allowed fuels to dry steadily. Forecast ERCs indicate fuels will be around the 50th-60th percentile across some portions of these regions on Tuesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent may briefly overlap winds around 10-15 mph for localized Elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, it doesn't appear that this overlap of drying fuels and elevated meteorological conditions will be widespread enough for inclusion of any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Recent updrafts developing across far south FL have been slow to intensify within the modestly buoyant but weakly forced environment. This trend is expected to continue through this evening as the front continues to push offshore. ..Moore.. 12/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A progressive upper pattern will persist today with a pair of shortwave troughs, one currently moving towards the central Appalachians and the other moving towards the Four Corners and central Rockies, continuing eastward/southeastward as another pair of shortwave troughs drop into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift eastward/southeastward over more of the eastern CONUS while a low, currently in the western Atlantic off the SC coast, progresses northeastward. A cold front extends southwestward from the western Atlantic surface low through central FL, which is the only area across the entire CONUS with any notable low-level moisture. Dewpoints over south FL preceding this front are currently in the low 70s, and mesoanalysis indicates modest buoyancy over the region. Convergence along the front will be modest and much of the large-scale ascent will be displaced north and east of this region, but isolated showers and thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear is in place, and there is a very-low-probability risk for a damaging gust or two. However, limited updraft depth and/or persistence should mitigate the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Recent updrafts developing across far south FL have been slow to intensify within the modestly buoyant but weakly forced environment. This trend is expected to continue through this evening as the front continues to push offshore. ..Moore.. 12/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A progressive upper pattern will persist today with a pair of shortwave troughs, one currently moving towards the central Appalachians and the other moving towards the Four Corners and central Rockies, continuing eastward/southeastward as another pair of shortwave troughs drop into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift eastward/southeastward over more of the eastern CONUS while a low, currently in the western Atlantic off the SC coast, progresses northeastward. A cold front extends southwestward from the western Atlantic surface low through central FL, which is the only area across the entire CONUS with any notable low-level moisture. Dewpoints over south FL preceding this front are currently in the low 70s, and mesoanalysis indicates modest buoyancy over the region. Convergence along the front will be modest and much of the large-scale ascent will be displaced north and east of this region, but isolated showers and thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear is in place, and there is a very-low-probability risk for a damaging gust or two. However, limited updraft depth and/or persistence should mitigate the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded shortwave trough moves from the Midwest/Great Lakes towards the Mid Atlantic/New England. A deep surface cyclone will move from the eastern Great Lakes toward northern New England, as a cold front sweeps through the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Gulf moisture will remain suppressed through the period, resulting in dry/stable conditions and negligible inland thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some weak buoyancy may develop over far south FL and the Keys, though potential for deep convection will be limited by weak ascent and dry air aloft. Gusty showers will be possible from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, in association with the surface cyclone and cold front, but buoyancy is forecast to remain negligible across these regions. ..Dean.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded shortwave trough moves from the Midwest/Great Lakes towards the Mid Atlantic/New England. A deep surface cyclone will move from the eastern Great Lakes toward northern New England, as a cold front sweeps through the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Gulf moisture will remain suppressed through the period, resulting in dry/stable conditions and negligible inland thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some weak buoyancy may develop over far south FL and the Keys, though potential for deep convection will be limited by weak ascent and dry air aloft. Gusty showers will be possible from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, in association with the surface cyclone and cold front, but buoyancy is forecast to remain negligible across these regions. ..Dean.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, a surface ridge across the Southeast will suppress any Gulf moisture return on Tuesday, resulting in generally dry/stable conditions and negligible inland thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some thunderstorm activity is possible over the Florida Straits, but current guidance suggests that this will largely remain offshore of the FL Peninsula and south of the FL Keys. To the north, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies and northern High Plains towards the Upper Midwest. A strong (near/below 990 mb) surface cyclone will accompany this system, as an attendant cold front moves through parts of the northern Plains and eventually the Upper Great Lakes region. Very weak/shallow convection may develop within an intensifying wind field across the northern Great Plains during the day/evening, and across parts of the Midwest Tuesday night, but any organized convective contribution to wind gust potential currently appears unlikely. ..Dean.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, a surface ridge across the Southeast will suppress any Gulf moisture return on Tuesday, resulting in generally dry/stable conditions and negligible inland thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some thunderstorm activity is possible over the Florida Straits, but current guidance suggests that this will largely remain offshore of the FL Peninsula and south of the FL Keys. To the north, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies and northern High Plains towards the Upper Midwest. A strong (near/below 990 mb) surface cyclone will accompany this system, as an attendant cold front moves through parts of the northern Plains and eventually the Upper Great Lakes region. Very weak/shallow convection may develop within an intensifying wind field across the northern Great Plains during the day/evening, and across parts of the Midwest Tuesday night, but any organized convective contribution to wind gust potential currently appears unlikely. ..Dean.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. Surface high pressure across the Intermountain West will continue to promote dry, offshore flow across southern CA today. Farther east, dry and relative mild conditions under a building ridge aloft will encompass much of the lower CO River Basin and southern High Plains although winds will remain light. Fuels across CONUS are largely not conducive for significant wildfire spread, mitigating impacts from locally dry/breezy conditions. ..Williams.. 12/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Much of the central US and Plains states will be under the influence of post frontal cool continental air mass. Surface high pressure across the central US will begin to shift eastward as a trough departs the northeast. Some lingering dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Texas Permian basin. Marginal relative humidity and lack of receptive fuels will keep fire spread concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. Surface high pressure across the Intermountain West will continue to promote dry, offshore flow across southern CA today. Farther east, dry and relative mild conditions under a building ridge aloft will encompass much of the lower CO River Basin and southern High Plains although winds will remain light. Fuels across CONUS are largely not conducive for significant wildfire spread, mitigating impacts from locally dry/breezy conditions. ..Williams.. 12/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Much of the central US and Plains states will be under the influence of post frontal cool continental air mass. Surface high pressure across the central US will begin to shift eastward as a trough departs the northeast. Some lingering dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Texas Permian basin. Marginal relative humidity and lack of receptive fuels will keep fire spread concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A progressive upper pattern will persist today with a pair of shortwave troughs, one currently moving towards the central Appalachians and the other moving towards the Four Corners and central Rockies, continuing eastward/southeastward as another pair of shortwave troughs drop into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift eastward/southeastward over more of the eastern CONUS while a low, currently in the western Atlantic off the SC coast, progresses northeastward. A cold front extends southwestward from the western Atlantic surface low through central FL, which is the only area across the entire CONUS with any notable low-level moisture. Dewpoints over south FL preceding this front are currently in the low 70s, and mesoanalysis indicates modest buoyancy over the region. Convergence along the front will be modest and much of the large-scale ascent will be displaced north and east of this region, but isolated showers and thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear is in place, and there is a very-low-probability risk for a damaging gust or two. However, limited updraft depth and/or persistence should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Leitman.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A progressive upper pattern will persist today with a pair of shortwave troughs, one currently moving towards the central Appalachians and the other moving towards the Four Corners and central Rockies, continuing eastward/southeastward as another pair of shortwave troughs drop into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift eastward/southeastward over more of the eastern CONUS while a low, currently in the western Atlantic off the SC coast, progresses northeastward. A cold front extends southwestward from the western Atlantic surface low through central FL, which is the only area across the entire CONUS with any notable low-level moisture. Dewpoints over south FL preceding this front are currently in the low 70s, and mesoanalysis indicates modest buoyancy over the region. Convergence along the front will be modest and much of the large-scale ascent will be displaced north and east of this region, but isolated showers and thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear is in place, and there is a very-low-probability risk for a damaging gust or two. However, limited updraft depth and/or persistence should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Leitman.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough will move across the southern Appalachians to coastal VA/NC by this evening. A surface cold front will sag south across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of earlier convection, daytime heating will be needed for the redevelopment of thunderstorms along the front. Besides modest low-level convergence with the front, large-scale ascent will remain weak across this region. This, combined with persistently poor mid-level lapse rates, should limit convective intensity. Still, a locally strong gust or two may occur until the front moves into the FL Straits. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough will move across the southern Appalachians to coastal VA/NC by this evening. A surface cold front will sag south across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of earlier convection, daytime heating will be needed for the redevelopment of thunderstorms along the front. Besides modest low-level convergence with the front, large-scale ascent will remain weak across this region. This, combined with persistently poor mid-level lapse rates, should limit convective intensity. Still, a locally strong gust or two may occur until the front moves into the FL Straits. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/08/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of the period. It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies, the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of the period. It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies, the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of the period. It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies, the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an increasingly prominent high may build once again across and north of the Aleutians vicinity, but it appears that there will be little change to the downstream flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western North America, through at least this period. Downstream, there is substantive spread in the model output concerning the subsequent evolution of short wave troughing initially digging across the Midwest at the outset of the period, and another notable perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity. Regardless, larger-scale mid/upper troughing to the east of the Rockies will be reinforced, and related surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. ..Kerr.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an increasingly prominent high may build once again across and north of the Aleutians vicinity, but it appears that there will be little change to the downstream flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western North America, through at least this period. Downstream, there is substantive spread in the model output concerning the subsequent evolution of short wave troughing initially digging across the Midwest at the outset of the period, and another notable perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity. Regardless, larger-scale mid/upper troughing to the east of the Rockies will be reinforced, and related surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. ..Kerr.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an increasingly prominent high may build once again across and north of the Aleutians vicinity, but it appears that there will be little change to the downstream flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western North America, through at least this period. Downstream, there is substantive spread in the model output concerning the subsequent evolution of short wave troughing initially digging across the Midwest at the outset of the period, and another notable perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity. Regardless, larger-scale mid/upper troughing to the east of the Rockies will be reinforced, and related surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. ..Kerr.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... While a blocking high to the north of the Aleutians may undergo at least some short-lived suppression, models indicate that a downstream high may become a bit more prominent across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific during this period. As this occurs, a belt of strong anticyclonic flow is likely to be maintained across much of the eastern mid-latitude Pacific through the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies. One of a number of short wave perturbations progressing through this jet is forecast to emerge and contribute to amplifying mid-level troughing as it digs across the northern Great Plains through Upper Midwest, accompanied by a rapidly migrating surface cyclone into the upper Great Lakes by late Tuesday night. It appears that this will be trailed by a gradually consolidating and increasingly significant surface cold intrusion. A notable preceding surface front may remain a focus for thunderstorm development near and south-southeast of the Florida Straits Tuesday into Tuesday night. The trailing flank of this front is forecast to weaken across the southwestern Gulf Basin, and some Gulf boundary-layer modification may commence to the north. However, this is likely to remain rather modest, and an initial low-level offshore flow across the Gulf Coast, veering to an increasing westerly component by Tuesday night, will tend to inhibit inland moistening. ..Kerr.. 12/08/2025 Read more