SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S Tuesday
through Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
While a blocking high to the north of the Aleutians may undergo at
least some short-lived suppression, models indicate that a
downstream high may become a bit more prominent across the southern
mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific during this
period. As this occurs, a belt of strong anticyclonic flow is
likely to be maintained across much of the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific through the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies.
One of a number of short wave perturbations progressing through this
jet is forecast to emerge and contribute to amplifying mid-level
troughing as it digs across the northern Great Plains through Upper
Midwest, accompanied by a rapidly migrating surface cyclone into the
upper Great Lakes by late Tuesday night. It appears that this will
be trailed by a gradually consolidating and increasingly significant
surface cold intrusion.
A notable preceding surface front may remain a focus for
thunderstorm development near and south-southeast of the Florida
Straits Tuesday into Tuesday night. The trailing flank of this
front is forecast to weaken across the southwestern Gulf Basin, and
some Gulf boundary-layer modification may commence to the north.
However, this is likely to remain rather modest, and an initial
low-level offshore flow across the Gulf Coast, veering to an
increasing westerly component by Tuesday night, will tend to inhibit
inland moistening.
..Kerr.. 12/08/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S Tuesday
through Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
While a blocking high to the north of the Aleutians may undergo at
least some short-lived suppression, models indicate that a
downstream high may become a bit more prominent across the southern
mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific during this
period. As this occurs, a belt of strong anticyclonic flow is
likely to be maintained across much of the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific through the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies.
One of a number of short wave perturbations progressing through this
jet is forecast to emerge and contribute to amplifying mid-level
troughing as it digs across the northern Great Plains through Upper
Midwest, accompanied by a rapidly migrating surface cyclone into the
upper Great Lakes by late Tuesday night. It appears that this will
be trailed by a gradually consolidating and increasingly significant
surface cold intrusion.
A notable preceding surface front may remain a focus for
thunderstorm development near and south-southeast of the Florida
Straits Tuesday into Tuesday night. The trailing flank of this
front is forecast to weaken across the southwestern Gulf Basin, and
some Gulf boundary-layer modification may commence to the north.
However, this is likely to remain rather modest, and an initial
low-level offshore flow across the Gulf Coast, veering to an
increasing westerly component by Tuesday night, will tend to inhibit
inland moistening.
..Kerr.. 12/08/2025
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S Tuesday
through Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
While a blocking high to the north of the Aleutians may undergo at
least some short-lived suppression, models indicate that a
downstream high may become a bit more prominent across the southern
mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific during this
period. As this occurs, a belt of strong anticyclonic flow is
likely to be maintained across much of the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific through the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies.
One of a number of short wave perturbations progressing through this
jet is forecast to emerge and contribute to amplifying mid-level
troughing as it digs across the northern Great Plains through Upper
Midwest, accompanied by a rapidly migrating surface cyclone into the
upper Great Lakes by late Tuesday night. It appears that this will
be trailed by a gradually consolidating and increasingly significant
surface cold intrusion.
A notable preceding surface front may remain a focus for
thunderstorm development near and south-southeast of the Florida
Straits Tuesday into Tuesday night. The trailing flank of this
front is forecast to weaken across the southwestern Gulf Basin, and
some Gulf boundary-layer modification may commence to the north.
However, this is likely to remain rather modest, and an initial
low-level offshore flow across the Gulf Coast, veering to an
increasing westerly component by Tuesday night, will tend to inhibit
inland moistening.
..Kerr.. 12/08/2025
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe-storm potential appears negligible today through tonight.
...South FL...
With a broad upper trough remaining anchored across the East, an
embedded shortwave impulse will progress across the southern
Appalachians to coastal VA/NC by evening. A surface cold front will
sag south across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of
decaying morning convection, adequate boundary-layer heating will be
necessary for redevelopment of midday to afternoon storms along the
front. Large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence
attendant to the front, appears nebulous with the region
well-removed from influence of the VA/NC impulse. This combined with
persistently weak mid-level lapse rates should limit convective
vigor. But a locally strong gust or two might occur until the front
progresses into the FL Straits.
..Grams/Thornton.. 12/08/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe-storm potential appears negligible today through tonight.
...South FL...
With a broad upper trough remaining anchored across the East, an
embedded shortwave impulse will progress across the southern
Appalachians to coastal VA/NC by evening. A surface cold front will
sag south across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of
decaying morning convection, adequate boundary-layer heating will be
necessary for redevelopment of midday to afternoon storms along the
front. Large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence
attendant to the front, appears nebulous with the region
well-removed from influence of the VA/NC impulse. This combined with
persistently weak mid-level lapse rates should limit convective
vigor. But a locally strong gust or two might occur until the front
progresses into the FL Straits.
..Grams/Thornton.. 12/08/2025
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe-storm potential appears negligible today through tonight.
...South FL...
With a broad upper trough remaining anchored across the East, an
embedded shortwave impulse will progress across the southern
Appalachians to coastal VA/NC by evening. A surface cold front will
sag south across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of
decaying morning convection, adequate boundary-layer heating will be
necessary for redevelopment of midday to afternoon storms along the
front. Large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence
attendant to the front, appears nebulous with the region
well-removed from influence of the VA/NC impulse. This combined with
persistently weak mid-level lapse rates should limit convective
vigor. But a locally strong gust or two might occur until the front
progresses into the FL Straits.
..Grams/Thornton.. 12/08/2025
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe-storm potential appears negligible today through tonight.
...South FL...
With a broad upper trough remaining anchored across the East, an
embedded shortwave impulse will progress across the southern
Appalachians to coastal VA/NC by evening. A surface cold front will
sag south across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of
decaying morning convection, adequate boundary-layer heating will be
necessary for redevelopment of midday to afternoon storms along the
front. Large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence
attendant to the front, appears nebulous with the region
well-removed from influence of the VA/NC impulse. This combined with
persistently weak mid-level lapse rates should limit convective
vigor. But a locally strong gust or two might occur until the front
progresses into the FL Straits.
..Grams/Thornton.. 12/08/2025
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Surface troughing across the Plains will bring dry and breezy
conditions to portions of western Texas on D2/Tuesday. Recent days
of dry and breezy conditions across western Texas from the Caprock
south to the Permian Basin have allowed fuels to dry steadily.
Forecast ERCs indicate fuels will be around the 50th-60th percentile
across some portions of these regions on Tuesday. Afternoon relative
humidity reductions to 15-20 percent may briefly overlap winds
around 10-15 mph for localized Elevated fire weather concerns.
Overall, it doesn't appear that this overlap of drying fuels and
elevated meteorological conditions will be widespread enough for
inclusion of any areas.
..Thornton.. 12/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Surface troughing across the Plains will bring dry and breezy
conditions to portions of western Texas on D2/Tuesday. Recent days
of dry and breezy conditions across western Texas from the Caprock
south to the Permian Basin have allowed fuels to dry steadily.
Forecast ERCs indicate fuels will be around the 50th-60th percentile
across some portions of these regions on Tuesday. Afternoon relative
humidity reductions to 15-20 percent may briefly overlap winds
around 10-15 mph for localized Elevated fire weather concerns.
Overall, it doesn't appear that this overlap of drying fuels and
elevated meteorological conditions will be widespread enough for
inclusion of any areas.
..Thornton.. 12/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Surface troughing across the Plains will bring dry and breezy
conditions to portions of western Texas on D2/Tuesday. Recent days
of dry and breezy conditions across western Texas from the Caprock
south to the Permian Basin have allowed fuels to dry steadily.
Forecast ERCs indicate fuels will be around the 50th-60th percentile
across some portions of these regions on Tuesday. Afternoon relative
humidity reductions to 15-20 percent may briefly overlap winds
around 10-15 mph for localized Elevated fire weather concerns.
Overall, it doesn't appear that this overlap of drying fuels and
elevated meteorological conditions will be widespread enough for
inclusion of any areas.
..Thornton.. 12/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. Much of the central US and Plains states will be under the
influence of post frontal cool continental air mass. Surface high
pressure across the central US will begin to shift eastward as a
trough departs the northeast. Some lingering dry/breezy conditions
will be possible across the Texas Permian basin. Marginal relative
humidity and lack of receptive fuels will keep fire spread concerns
low.
..Thornton.. 12/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. Much of the central US and Plains states will be under the
influence of post frontal cool continental air mass. Surface high
pressure across the central US will begin to shift eastward as a
trough departs the northeast. Some lingering dry/breezy conditions
will be possible across the Texas Permian basin. Marginal relative
humidity and lack of receptive fuels will keep fire spread concerns
low.
..Thornton.. 12/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. Much of the central US and Plains states will be under the
influence of post frontal cool continental air mass. Surface high
pressure across the central US will begin to shift eastward as a
trough departs the northeast. Some lingering dry/breezy conditions
will be possible across the Texas Permian basin. Marginal relative
humidity and lack of receptive fuels will keep fire spread concerns
low.
..Thornton.. 12/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 2253 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 2253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Areas affected...West-central Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 080046Z - 080245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat
will continue this evening.
DISCUSSION...A line of strong thunderstorms continues to approach
the western coast of Florida this evening. Within this line, a few
stronger supercells have developed. The KTBW WSR-88D is sampling a
somewhat tight circulation from a supercell around 15 miles
northwest of Anna Maria Island. Expect this storm/circulation to
weaken as it moves into the cooler (upper 60sF) shelf-waters near
the coast. Even if it does persist, it will likely be undercut by
the southward moving outflow boundary within the hour which should
end the threat. Additional storms are developing southwest of this
circulation (farther away from the southward moving outflow) which
may maintain some threat for the west coast of Florida through the
evening.
Some surface based instability is present on the 00Z TBW RAOB
(~750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). While weak mid-level lapse rates will
likely inhibit new deep convection inland, enough instability may
exist to support maintenance of the supercells that develop over the
Gulf. These stronger storms may pose an isolated damaging
wind/tornado threat this evening given the veered low-level wind
profile.
..Bentley/Guyer.. 12/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 27868294 28058225 28078163 27838124 27528121 27338156
27178218 27058268 27318289 27868294
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado and locally strong gusts remain possible, mainly
through late evening across the south-central portion of the Florida
Peninsula.
...South-central FL...
A convectively reinforced front has been sagging south across
central FL over the past couple hours. The bulk of convection has
weakened as it spread across the peninsula, with deeper/renewed
updrafts holding off the Gulf Coast, southwest of Tampa Bay to west
of Fort Myers. 23Z XMR and 00Z TBW soundings sampled less-than-moist
adiabatic lapse rates through much of the troposphere, which will
remain a limiting factor to intensification of convection over land.
But strong deep-layer shear (effective bulk values in excess of 50
kts) and moderate low-level hodograph enhancement will maintain a
low-probability tornado and strong wind gust threat through late
evening. This may be focused near the juncture of the eastern Gulf
convection with the undercutting boundary. With only minor
large-scale ascent, offshore convection should wane overnight and
severe potential across the peninsula should diminish. See MCD 2253
for additional short-term discussion.
..Grams.. 12/08/2025
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado and locally strong gusts remain possible, mainly
through late evening across the south-central portion of the Florida
Peninsula.
...South-central FL...
A convectively reinforced front has been sagging south across
central FL over the past couple hours. The bulk of convection has
weakened as it spread across the peninsula, with deeper/renewed
updrafts holding off the Gulf Coast, southwest of Tampa Bay to west
of Fort Myers. 23Z XMR and 00Z TBW soundings sampled less-than-moist
adiabatic lapse rates through much of the troposphere, which will
remain a limiting factor to intensification of convection over land.
But strong deep-layer shear (effective bulk values in excess of 50
kts) and moderate low-level hodograph enhancement will maintain a
low-probability tornado and strong wind gust threat through late
evening. This may be focused near the juncture of the eastern Gulf
convection with the undercutting boundary. With only minor
large-scale ascent, offshore convection should wane overnight and
severe potential across the peninsula should diminish. See MCD 2253
for additional short-term discussion.
..Grams.. 12/08/2025
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado and locally strong gusts remain possible, mainly
through late evening across the south-central portion of the Florida
Peninsula.
...South-central FL...
A convectively reinforced front has been sagging south across
central FL over the past couple hours. The bulk of convection has
weakened as it spread across the peninsula, with deeper/renewed
updrafts holding off the Gulf Coast, southwest of Tampa Bay to west
of Fort Myers. 23Z XMR and 00Z TBW soundings sampled less-than-moist
adiabatic lapse rates through much of the troposphere, which will
remain a limiting factor to intensification of convection over land.
But strong deep-layer shear (effective bulk values in excess of 50
kts) and moderate low-level hodograph enhancement will maintain a
low-probability tornado and strong wind gust threat through late
evening. This may be focused near the juncture of the eastern Gulf
convection with the undercutting boundary. With only minor
large-scale ascent, offshore convection should wane overnight and
severe potential across the peninsula should diminish. See MCD 2253
for additional short-term discussion.
..Grams.. 12/08/2025
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado and locally strong gusts remain possible, mainly
through late evening across the south-central portion of the Florida
Peninsula.
...South-central FL...
A convectively reinforced front has been sagging south across
central FL over the past couple hours. The bulk of convection has
weakened as it spread across the peninsula, with deeper/renewed
updrafts holding off the Gulf Coast, southwest of Tampa Bay to west
of Fort Myers. 23Z XMR and 00Z TBW soundings sampled less-than-moist
adiabatic lapse rates through much of the troposphere, which will
remain a limiting factor to intensification of convection over land.
But strong deep-layer shear (effective bulk values in excess of 50
kts) and moderate low-level hodograph enhancement will maintain a
low-probability tornado and strong wind gust threat through late
evening. This may be focused near the juncture of the eastern Gulf
convection with the undercutting boundary. With only minor
large-scale ascent, offshore convection should wane overnight and
severe potential across the peninsula should diminish. See MCD 2253
for additional short-term discussion.
..Grams.. 12/08/2025
Read more
MD 2252 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL FL
Mesoscale Discussion 2252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Areas affected...Parts of west-central FL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 072156Z - 080030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and a brief tornado are possible
this evening.
DISCUSSION...A storm cluster has intensified this afternoon across
the northeast Gulf, where an offshore buoy recently reported a gust
of 52 kt at 2050 UTC. This storm cluster appears to be accompanied
by a midlevel vorticity maximum and surface low, as evidenced by
rather strong pressure falls at the buoy preceding the severe gust.
Downstream of this storm cluster, modest destabilization has
occurred across central and southern parts of the FL Peninsula,
along and south of a baroclinic zone draped from near/south of Tampa
eastward to just south of Cape Canaveral.
Weak lapse rates (as observed in the 18Z TBW sounding) will tend to
limit instability across the peninsula into this evening. However,
any organized storm structures that approach the coast, or develop
inland near the boundary, may be able to persist within the
favorably moist environment near and south of the baroclinic zone. A
substantial increase in 0-2 km AGL flow has recently been noted in
the KTBW VWP, which will also aid in maintenance of any organized
cells/clusters, and provide sufficient effective SRH for low-level
rotation.
A brief tornado will be possible near and south of the surface
boundary, where at least weak surface-based buoyancy will persist
through the evening. Locally gusty/damaging winds will also be
possible, especially with any of the stronger offshore storm
structures as they approach the coast later this evening.
..Dean/Smith.. 12/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...
LAT...LON 28368332 28248220 28138168 27708170 26928200 26718206
26948288 27428366 28368332
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
