MD 2252 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL FL
Mesoscale Discussion 2252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Areas affected...Parts of west-central FL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 072156Z - 080030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and a brief tornado are possible
this evening.
DISCUSSION...A storm cluster has intensified this afternoon across
the northeast Gulf, where an offshore buoy recently reported a gust
of 52 kt at 2050 UTC. This storm cluster appears to be accompanied
by a midlevel vorticity maximum and surface low, as evidenced by
rather strong pressure falls at the buoy preceding the severe gust.
Downstream of this storm cluster, modest destabilization has
occurred across central and southern parts of the FL Peninsula,
along and south of a baroclinic zone draped from near/south of Tampa
eastward to just south of Cape Canaveral.
Weak lapse rates (as observed in the 18Z TBW sounding) will tend to
limit instability across the peninsula into this evening. However,
any organized storm structures that approach the coast, or develop
inland near the boundary, may be able to persist within the
favorably moist environment near and south of the baroclinic zone. A
substantial increase in 0-2 km AGL flow has recently been noted in
the KTBW VWP, which will also aid in maintenance of any organized
cells/clusters, and provide sufficient effective SRH for low-level
rotation.
A brief tornado will be possible near and south of the surface
boundary, where at least weak surface-based buoyancy will persist
through the evening. Locally gusty/damaging winds will also be
possible, especially with any of the stronger offshore storm
structures as they approach the coast later this evening.
..Dean/Smith.. 12/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...
LAT...LON 28368332 28248220 28138168 27708170 26928200 26718206
26948288 27428366 28368332
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
Medium range ensemble guidance suggests a somewhat stagnant
upper-level long wave pattern persisting across CONUS through
midweek. The eastern U.S. will remain entrenched in a broader trough
while ridging slowly amplifies and intrudes farther into the western
states through the weekend. The broader northwesterly flow regime
over the central U.S. should provide a source for colder,
continental air mass intrusions into the eastern U.S., particularly
over the weekend time frame which will limit fire weather concerns.
Farther west under the slowly amplifying ridge, dry conditions
should encompass much of the Southwestern U.S. while above normal
temperatures expand west of the Continental Divide. Despite the
upcoming persistent dry conditions across the Southwest, a diffuse
surface pressure gradient and thus lower wind speeds along with
marginal fuel dryness should allay broader fire weather concerns.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern High Plains...
A surface trough extending southward from a deepening surface low
across the Northern Plains should promote some overlap of lower
relative humidity and breezy west/southwest winds across
southeastern NM and West Texas on Day 3/Tuesday. However, marginal
fuel dryness precludes introducing critical probabilities at this
time.
..Williams.. 12/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
Medium range ensemble guidance suggests a somewhat stagnant
upper-level long wave pattern persisting across CONUS through
midweek. The eastern U.S. will remain entrenched in a broader trough
while ridging slowly amplifies and intrudes farther into the western
states through the weekend. The broader northwesterly flow regime
over the central U.S. should provide a source for colder,
continental air mass intrusions into the eastern U.S., particularly
over the weekend time frame which will limit fire weather concerns.
Farther west under the slowly amplifying ridge, dry conditions
should encompass much of the Southwestern U.S. while above normal
temperatures expand west of the Continental Divide. Despite the
upcoming persistent dry conditions across the Southwest, a diffuse
surface pressure gradient and thus lower wind speeds along with
marginal fuel dryness should allay broader fire weather concerns.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern High Plains...
A surface trough extending southward from a deepening surface low
across the Northern Plains should promote some overlap of lower
relative humidity and breezy west/southwest winds across
southeastern NM and West Texas on Day 3/Tuesday. However, marginal
fuel dryness precludes introducing critical probabilities at this
time.
..Williams.. 12/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
Medium range ensemble guidance suggests a somewhat stagnant
upper-level long wave pattern persisting across CONUS through
midweek. The eastern U.S. will remain entrenched in a broader trough
while ridging slowly amplifies and intrudes farther into the western
states through the weekend. The broader northwesterly flow regime
over the central U.S. should provide a source for colder,
continental air mass intrusions into the eastern U.S., particularly
over the weekend time frame which will limit fire weather concerns.
Farther west under the slowly amplifying ridge, dry conditions
should encompass much of the Southwestern U.S. while above normal
temperatures expand west of the Continental Divide. Despite the
upcoming persistent dry conditions across the Southwest, a diffuse
surface pressure gradient and thus lower wind speeds along with
marginal fuel dryness should allay broader fire weather concerns.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern High Plains...
A surface trough extending southward from a deepening surface low
across the Northern Plains should promote some overlap of lower
relative humidity and breezy west/southwest winds across
southeastern NM and West Texas on Day 3/Tuesday. However, marginal
fuel dryness precludes introducing critical probabilities at this
time.
..Williams.. 12/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
Medium range ensemble guidance suggests a somewhat stagnant
upper-level long wave pattern persisting across CONUS through
midweek. The eastern U.S. will remain entrenched in a broader trough
while ridging slowly amplifies and intrudes farther into the western
states through the weekend. The broader northwesterly flow regime
over the central U.S. should provide a source for colder,
continental air mass intrusions into the eastern U.S., particularly
over the weekend time frame which will limit fire weather concerns.
Farther west under the slowly amplifying ridge, dry conditions
should encompass much of the Southwestern U.S. while above normal
temperatures expand west of the Continental Divide. Despite the
upcoming persistent dry conditions across the Southwest, a diffuse
surface pressure gradient and thus lower wind speeds along with
marginal fuel dryness should allay broader fire weather concerns.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern High Plains...
A surface trough extending southward from a deepening surface low
across the Northern Plains should promote some overlap of lower
relative humidity and breezy west/southwest winds across
southeastern NM and West Texas on Day 3/Tuesday. However, marginal
fuel dryness precludes introducing critical probabilities at this
time.
..Williams.. 12/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across
parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through
the evening.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the outlook are required. See the previous discussion
for additional information.
..Wendt.. 12/07/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025/
...Florida Peninsula...
Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and
embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging
front over the north-central Gulf. This rain activity is possibly
the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern
Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over
the central and eastern part of North America. This disturbance is
forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA
coasts by mid-late evening.
Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and
combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby
limit destabilization. However, a seasonably moist airmass will
probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing
prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into
the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this
afternoon and evening. Ample mid- to high-level flow will support
storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or
two developing within this zone of convection. The risk for
localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may
accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period,
as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across
parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through
the evening.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the outlook are required. See the previous discussion
for additional information.
..Wendt.. 12/07/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025/
...Florida Peninsula...
Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and
embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging
front over the north-central Gulf. This rain activity is possibly
the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern
Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over
the central and eastern part of North America. This disturbance is
forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA
coasts by mid-late evening.
Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and
combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby
limit destabilization. However, a seasonably moist airmass will
probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing
prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into
the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this
afternoon and evening. Ample mid- to high-level flow will support
storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or
two developing within this zone of convection. The risk for
localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may
accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period,
as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across
parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through
the evening.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the outlook are required. See the previous discussion
for additional information.
..Wendt.. 12/07/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025/
...Florida Peninsula...
Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and
embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging
front over the north-central Gulf. This rain activity is possibly
the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern
Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over
the central and eastern part of North America. This disturbance is
forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA
coasts by mid-late evening.
Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and
combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby
limit destabilization. However, a seasonably moist airmass will
probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing
prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into
the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this
afternoon and evening. Ample mid- to high-level flow will support
storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or
two developing within this zone of convection. The risk for
localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may
accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period,
as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across
parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through
the evening.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the outlook are required. See the previous discussion
for additional information.
..Wendt.. 12/07/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025/
...Florida Peninsula...
Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and
embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging
front over the north-central Gulf. This rain activity is possibly
the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern
Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over
the central and eastern part of North America. This disturbance is
forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA
coasts by mid-late evening.
Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and
combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby
limit destabilization. However, a seasonably moist airmass will
probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing
prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into
the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this
afternoon and evening. Ample mid- to high-level flow will support
storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or
two developing within this zone of convection. The risk for
localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may
accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period,
as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No highlighted areas for the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook as a minimal
fire weather threat continues across CONUS. Please see previous
discussion below.
..Williams.. 12/07/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Monday.
Surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will move eastward
with a cool continental air mass across much of the Plains. Some
lingering dry/breezy conditions will linger across the Texas Permian
Basin. Marginal relative humidity and lack of receptive fuels will
keep the overall fire threat low.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No highlighted areas for the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook as a minimal
fire weather threat continues across CONUS. Please see previous
discussion below.
..Williams.. 12/07/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Monday.
Surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will move eastward
with a cool continental air mass across much of the Plains. Some
lingering dry/breezy conditions will linger across the Texas Permian
Basin. Marginal relative humidity and lack of receptive fuels will
keep the overall fire threat low.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No highlighted areas for the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook as a minimal
fire weather threat continues across CONUS. Please see previous
discussion below.
..Williams.. 12/07/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Monday.
Surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will move eastward
with a cool continental air mass across much of the Plains. Some
lingering dry/breezy conditions will linger across the Texas Permian
Basin. Marginal relative humidity and lack of receptive fuels will
keep the overall fire threat low.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No highlighted areas for the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook as a minimal
fire weather threat continues across CONUS. Please see previous
discussion below.
..Williams.. 12/07/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Monday.
Surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will move eastward
with a cool continental air mass across much of the Plains. Some
lingering dry/breezy conditions will linger across the Texas Permian
Basin. Marginal relative humidity and lack of receptive fuels will
keep the overall fire threat low.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No highlighted areas for the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook as a minimal
fire weather threat continues across CONUS. Please see previous
discussion below.
..Williams.. 12/07/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Monday.
Surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will move eastward
with a cool continental air mass across much of the Plains. Some
lingering dry/breezy conditions will linger across the Texas Permian
Basin. Marginal relative humidity and lack of receptive fuels will
keep the overall fire threat low.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity is not expected across the Lower 48 on
Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A broad swath of west to northwesterly flow will overspread the
CONUS on Tuesday. An upper shortwave trough will deepen as it
spreads east from the northern Rockies into the Midwest. A prior
cold front passage offshore into the Gulf and western Atlantic will
result in a dry and stable airmass. This will preclude thunderstorm
potential despite a deepening surface low and cold front spreading
across the Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity.
..Leitman.. 12/07/2025
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity is not expected across the Lower 48 on
Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A broad swath of west to northwesterly flow will overspread the
CONUS on Tuesday. An upper shortwave trough will deepen as it
spreads east from the northern Rockies into the Midwest. A prior
cold front passage offshore into the Gulf and western Atlantic will
result in a dry and stable airmass. This will preclude thunderstorm
potential despite a deepening surface low and cold front spreading
across the Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity.
..Leitman.. 12/07/2025
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity is not expected across the Lower 48 on
Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A broad swath of west to northwesterly flow will overspread the
CONUS on Tuesday. An upper shortwave trough will deepen as it
spreads east from the northern Rockies into the Midwest. A prior
cold front passage offshore into the Gulf and western Atlantic will
result in a dry and stable airmass. This will preclude thunderstorm
potential despite a deepening surface low and cold front spreading
across the Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity.
..Leitman.. 12/07/2025
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity is not expected across the Lower 48 on
Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A broad swath of west to northwesterly flow will overspread the
CONUS on Tuesday. An upper shortwave trough will deepen as it
spreads east from the northern Rockies into the Midwest. A prior
cold front passage offshore into the Gulf and western Atlantic will
result in a dry and stable airmass. This will preclude thunderstorm
potential despite a deepening surface low and cold front spreading
across the Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity.
..Leitman.. 12/07/2025
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across South Florida and the
Keys on Monday. Severe storms are not expected.
...South Florida...
An upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf
will pivot east on Monday, moving offshore the Atlantic coast by
late evening. Enhanced mid/upper westerly flow will extend across
the Southeast into the FL Peninsula early in the day, and weaken
with time through the period. At the surface, a cold front over
south-central FL will develop southward through the day, moving
offshore during the evening.
Large-scale ascent will be nebulous across the area, with any
stronger forcing focused well north of the region. Nevertheless,
rich boundary layer moisture will exist ahead of the boundary, and
weak instability is noted in forecast soundings. Poor lapse rates
will limit updraft intensity, and forcing along the front also will
be modest given veering low-level winds. Nevertheless, a few
thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning across South FL and
surroundings coastal/near-shore areas. This activity may persist
into the afternoon before diminishing. Severe storms are not
expected.
..Leitman.. 12/07/2025
Read more
