SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Monday.
Surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will move eastward
with a cool continental air mass across much of the Plains. Some
lingering dry/breezy conditions will linger across the Texas Permian
Basin. Marginal relative humidity and lack of receptive fuels will
keep the overall fire threat low.
..Thornton.. 12/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Aside from the possibility of a couple weak thunderstorms near and,
perhaps, inland of southern Florida coastal areas, the risk for
thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.
...Synopsis...
The center of a fairly prominent, but relatively compact mid-level
vortex is likely to continue redeveloping east-southeast of southern
Hudson/James Bay, into and across the Newfoundland and Labrador
vicinity during this period. However, models indicate that
large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained east of the
Rockies through the western Atlantic, downstream of persistent broad
ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into U.S
Intermountain West.
One notable short wave perturbation embedded within the troughing is
forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Appalachians,
across and offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but this may
contribute to suppression of subtropical ridging as far south as the
Caribbean and Bahamas. In lower levels, an associated reinforcing
intrusion of cooler/drier air appears likely to contribute to the
southward advancement of the primary cold front through much of the
remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin.
At the same time, it appears that another notable short wave
perturbation, progressing through the crest of upstream ridge, will
provide support for surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian
and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night. This likely will be
accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high
plains, but dry, stable conditions will be maintained there and
across much of the remainder of the U.S.
...Southern Florida/Keys...
Latest model output remains varied concerning potential for
thunderstorm development along/ahead of the southward advancing
front. Mid/upper support appears weak, with potential for
appreciable destabilization, particularly inland of coastal areas,
limited as well.
..Kerr.. 12/07/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Aside from the possibility of a couple weak thunderstorms near and,
perhaps, inland of southern Florida coastal areas, the risk for
thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.
...Synopsis...
The center of a fairly prominent, but relatively compact mid-level
vortex is likely to continue redeveloping east-southeast of southern
Hudson/James Bay, into and across the Newfoundland and Labrador
vicinity during this period. However, models indicate that
large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained east of the
Rockies through the western Atlantic, downstream of persistent broad
ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into U.S
Intermountain West.
One notable short wave perturbation embedded within the troughing is
forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Appalachians,
across and offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but this may
contribute to suppression of subtropical ridging as far south as the
Caribbean and Bahamas. In lower levels, an associated reinforcing
intrusion of cooler/drier air appears likely to contribute to the
southward advancement of the primary cold front through much of the
remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin.
At the same time, it appears that another notable short wave
perturbation, progressing through the crest of upstream ridge, will
provide support for surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian
and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night. This likely will be
accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high
plains, but dry, stable conditions will be maintained there and
across much of the remainder of the U.S.
...Southern Florida/Keys...
Latest model output remains varied concerning potential for
thunderstorm development along/ahead of the southward advancing
front. Mid/upper support appears weak, with potential for
appreciable destabilization, particularly inland of coastal areas,
limited as well.
..Kerr.. 12/07/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. A cold front will drop southward across the Southern Plains.
A few localized areas of breezy/dry conditions may overlap
temporarily across far southern Texas ahead of the cold front. Fuels
in this region are not receptive to fire spread, and as such no
areas are included with this outlook.
..Thornton.. 12/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. A cold front will drop southward across the Southern Plains.
A few localized areas of breezy/dry conditions may overlap
temporarily across far southern Texas ahead of the cold front. Fuels
in this region are not receptive to fire spread, and as such no
areas are included with this outlook.
..Thornton.. 12/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FL
PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible,
mainly across central Florida during the late afternoon and evening.
...FL Peninsula...
Abundant convective development is expected later this morning
across the north-central to northeast Gulf along a largely
west/east-oriented quasi-stationary front. Downstream
cloudiness/rain along/north of the front will support pronounced
differential boundary-layer heating across it, from central to north
FL. With most guidance indicating potential for an MCV to evolve
from the morning convection, within the broadly cyclonic mid-level
flow regime across the Southeast, it is plausible that convection
may strengthen along the baroclinic zone towards peak heating. Weak
mid-level lapse rates will remain a key limiting factor to
convective intensity. But adequate deep-layer shear will exist for
transient mid-level rotation. With a warm boundary layer anticipated
across central to south FL, a few strong gusts capable of localized
damaging winds are possible. While the 00Z NAM appears to be an
aggressive outlier with stronger low-level mass response, expected
modest low-level SRH may be sufficient for a brief tornado or two.
..Grams/Thornton.. 12/07/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FL
PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible,
mainly across central Florida during the late afternoon and evening.
...FL Peninsula...
Abundant convective development is expected later this morning
across the north-central to northeast Gulf along a largely
west/east-oriented quasi-stationary front. Downstream
cloudiness/rain along/north of the front will support pronounced
differential boundary-layer heating across it, from central to north
FL. With most guidance indicating potential for an MCV to evolve
from the morning convection, within the broadly cyclonic mid-level
flow regime across the Southeast, it is plausible that convection
may strengthen along the baroclinic zone towards peak heating. Weak
mid-level lapse rates will remain a key limiting factor to
convective intensity. But adequate deep-layer shear will exist for
transient mid-level rotation. With a warm boundary layer anticipated
across central to south FL, a few strong gusts capable of localized
damaging winds are possible. While the 00Z NAM appears to be an
aggressive outlier with stronger low-level mass response, expected
modest low-level SRH may be sufficient for a brief tornado or two.
..Grams/Thornton.. 12/07/2025
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MD 2251 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Areas affected...central Iowa
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 070054Z - 070400Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow to continue across portions of
central Iowa over the next couple of hours. Occasional rates 1"/hr
with heavier bands.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar and surface observations suggest moderate
to heavy snow continues across portions of central Iowa. This is
occurring near the surface low and in the region of strong DPVA
aloft overspreading central Iowa. Two regions that will favor heavy
snow (possible 1"/hr rates) over the next couple of hours are near
the zone of 700-850 mb frontogenesis across central Iowa north of
Des Moines and in a smaller mesoscale sector along and south of I-80
and trending eastward of I-35 where a more narrow band of heavy snow
has developed. Guidance indicates a gradual downward trend in
snowfall rates is expected through the late evening/early morning
Sunday. However, periods of locally moderate snow may continue at
times across northeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin/northern
Illinois.
..Thornton.. 12/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 41659462 41259415 40959400 40789385 40689358 40719337
40909298 41079272 41409255 42279223 42579245 42759301
42839358 42509421 41659462
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible near a portion of the
north-central/northeast Gulf Coast during the early morning Sunday.
...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for appreciable
lightning-producing convection across much of the CONUS through the
period. However, elevated thunderstorms are expected to commence
across the north-central to northeast Gulf Coast overnight. Some of
this activity might approach the nearshore waters and immediate
coastline over the MS River Delta and the FL Panhandle before 12Z
Sunday.
..Grams.. 12/07/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible near a portion of the
north-central/northeast Gulf Coast during the early morning Sunday.
...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for appreciable
lightning-producing convection across much of the CONUS through the
period. However, elevated thunderstorms are expected to commence
across the north-central to northeast Gulf Coast overnight. Some of
this activity might approach the nearshore waters and immediate
coastline over the MS River Delta and the FL Panhandle before 12Z
Sunday.
..Grams.. 12/07/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible near a portion of the
north-central/northeast Gulf Coast during the early morning Sunday.
...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for appreciable
lightning-producing convection across much of the CONUS through the
period. However, elevated thunderstorms are expected to commence
across the north-central to northeast Gulf Coast overnight. Some of
this activity might approach the nearshore waters and immediate
coastline over the MS River Delta and the FL Panhandle before 12Z
Sunday.
..Grams.. 12/07/2025
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MD 2250 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Areas affected...Far southeast South Dakota and northwestern Iowa
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 061825Z - 070030Z
SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snowfall are developing across portions
of far southeastern SD, and will continue to expand into
northwestern IA within an hour or two. Snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5"
per hour can be expected.
DISCUSSION...An area of moderate to heavy snow is expected to
broaden this afternoon through this evening across northwestern IA,
as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches. Increasing DPVA will
accompany this feature, in addition to strong isentropic ascent.
Most NWP models and forecast soundings suggest omega will peak
within the dendritic growth zone through ~22Z over northwestern IA.
HREF probabilities of QPF greater than 0.10" per hour, combined with
snow to liquid ratios around 15-20 to 1, also support this time
frame for the heaviest snowfall.
..Barnes.. 12/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 43709693 43699633 43629615 43589590 43509545 43439511
43249476 43069448 42829426 42399452 42339494 42149520
42109535 42119548 42159557 42189572 42229581 42269592
42269606 42339633 42429642 42559654 42699686 42849722
42999725 43449725 43709693
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure moving into the eastern U.S. will promote
benign fire weather conditions across the region Day 3/Monday,
including additional rainfall over the Southeast along an advancing
cold front. A mid-level short wave translating southeastward within
broad northwesterly flow aloft should reach the Northern Plains by
Day 4/Tuesday. A corresponding surface cyclone over the Dakotas and
southward extending lee troughing along the High Plains should
support dry and breezy downslope conditions across eastern NM and
portions of West TX by Tuesday afternoon. However, even with
additional days of drying through Tuesday, fuels are expected to
remain muted, reducing the overall fire weather threat. A stronger
polar jet develops within a gradually amplifying upper-level wave
pattern over CONUS through late next week as mid-level troughing
persists across the eastern U.S. while ridging builds further into
the western states. This will support another cold air mass
intrusion into the eastern U.S. while much of the Great Basin, CA
and the Southwest remain dry within a lighter wind regime under the
expanding/advancing ridge, limiting broader fire weather concerns.
..Williams.. 12/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure moving into the eastern U.S. will promote
benign fire weather conditions across the region Day 3/Monday,
including additional rainfall over the Southeast along an advancing
cold front. A mid-level short wave translating southeastward within
broad northwesterly flow aloft should reach the Northern Plains by
Day 4/Tuesday. A corresponding surface cyclone over the Dakotas and
southward extending lee troughing along the High Plains should
support dry and breezy downslope conditions across eastern NM and
portions of West TX by Tuesday afternoon. However, even with
additional days of drying through Tuesday, fuels are expected to
remain muted, reducing the overall fire weather threat. A stronger
polar jet develops within a gradually amplifying upper-level wave
pattern over CONUS through late next week as mid-level troughing
persists across the eastern U.S. while ridging builds further into
the western states. This will support another cold air mass
intrusion into the eastern U.S. while much of the Great Basin, CA
and the Southwest remain dry within a lighter wind regime under the
expanding/advancing ridge, limiting broader fire weather concerns.
..Williams.. 12/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure moving into the eastern U.S. will promote
benign fire weather conditions across the region Day 3/Monday,
including additional rainfall over the Southeast along an advancing
cold front. A mid-level short wave translating southeastward within
broad northwesterly flow aloft should reach the Northern Plains by
Day 4/Tuesday. A corresponding surface cyclone over the Dakotas and
southward extending lee troughing along the High Plains should
support dry and breezy downslope conditions across eastern NM and
portions of West TX by Tuesday afternoon. However, even with
additional days of drying through Tuesday, fuels are expected to
remain muted, reducing the overall fire weather threat. A stronger
polar jet develops within a gradually amplifying upper-level wave
pattern over CONUS through late next week as mid-level troughing
persists across the eastern U.S. while ridging builds further into
the western states. This will support another cold air mass
intrusion into the eastern U.S. while much of the Great Basin, CA
and the Southwest remain dry within a lighter wind regime under the
expanding/advancing ridge, limiting broader fire weather concerns.
..Williams.. 12/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Potential for thunderstorms across the CONUS appears limited through
Sunday morning.
...20Z Update...
Recent TAMDAR sounding data from the Florida Peninsula show very
poor lapse rates and implied layers of subsidence. This is also
evident in forecast soundings. Given minimal ascent throughout the
troposphere, the potential for thunderstorms appears lower than 10%
through Sunday morning.
..Wendt.. 12/06/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025/
...Synopsis...
A progressive flow pattern will remain over the Lower 48 states
today. In the low levels, a front will reside over the Gulf and
extend east-northeastward across the northern half of the FL
Peninsula and east of the Carolina coast. The 12 UTC Tampa, FL raob
showed poor lapse rates. Limited buoyancy coupled with
weak/negligible low-level convergence/large-scale ascent will act to
limit convective coverage and intensity across the central FL
Peninsula today.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Potential for thunderstorms across the CONUS appears limited through
Sunday morning.
...20Z Update...
Recent TAMDAR sounding data from the Florida Peninsula show very
poor lapse rates and implied layers of subsidence. This is also
evident in forecast soundings. Given minimal ascent throughout the
troposphere, the potential for thunderstorms appears lower than 10%
through Sunday morning.
..Wendt.. 12/06/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025/
...Synopsis...
A progressive flow pattern will remain over the Lower 48 states
today. In the low levels, a front will reside over the Gulf and
extend east-northeastward across the northern half of the FL
Peninsula and east of the Carolina coast. The 12 UTC Tampa, FL raob
showed poor lapse rates. Limited buoyancy coupled with
weak/negligible low-level convergence/large-scale ascent will act to
limit convective coverage and intensity across the central FL
Peninsula today.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Potential for thunderstorms across the CONUS appears limited through
Sunday morning.
...20Z Update...
Recent TAMDAR sounding data from the Florida Peninsula show very
poor lapse rates and implied layers of subsidence. This is also
evident in forecast soundings. Given minimal ascent throughout the
troposphere, the potential for thunderstorms appears lower than 10%
through Sunday morning.
..Wendt.. 12/06/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025/
...Synopsis...
A progressive flow pattern will remain over the Lower 48 states
today. In the low levels, a front will reside over the Gulf and
extend east-northeastward across the northern half of the FL
Peninsula and east of the Carolina coast. The 12 UTC Tampa, FL raob
showed poor lapse rates. Limited buoyancy coupled with
weak/negligible low-level convergence/large-scale ascent will act to
limit convective coverage and intensity across the central FL
Peninsula today.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes were needed to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook as limited
fire weather concerns are expected across the contiguous U.S.
Sunday. Breezy north/northwest winds are expected across southern
Texas as a cold front moves southward through the state. However,
limited RH reductions and lack of receptive fuels will mitigate the
overall fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 12/06/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS on
D2/Sunday. A cold front will usher in cooler and drier conditions
across the Plains with lighter winds amid building surface high
pressure. Upper level ridging will continue across the western US,
with warming and dry conditions but light winds. Overall, overlap of
receptive fuels and breezy/dry conditions is not expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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