Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook. Deep layer west-northwest flow over the central/southern Rockies increases through Day 2/Saturday as an upstream mid-level short wave approaches the Great Plains. A strengthening lee trough across the central/southern Plains combined with the broad northwesterly flow aloft should promote a dry and breezy downslope regime across southeastern NM and TX Permian Basin region Saturday. A few hours of sustained west to southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity below 15% are likely, although fuels will remain largely unreceptive to wildfire spread, limiting the fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 12/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Saturday. Strengthening westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern/central Rockies as the next mid-level wave shifts out of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A stronger lee cyclone is progged to develop across the central Plains. This will likely develop areas of overlap of dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. However, a lack of receptive fuels with recent wet/cool conditions precludes the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Within a broad, large-scale trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move from the southern Great Plains into the Southeast on Sunday. In response to this system, some low-level moisture return is possible into parts of the upper TX coast and southern LA, in advance of an approaching cold front. However, persistent surface ridging will tend to keep the richer Gulf moisture mostly suppressed offshore. Early-day elevated convection will be possible across parts of the Gulf Coast, to the north of the primary baroclinic zone. Convective showers may develop later in the day across parts of LA and southern MS along/ahead of the approaching cold front, though forecast soundings currently suggest that this convection may not be sufficiently deep for lightning production. Farther east, thermodynamic profiles may become at least marginally supportive of thunderstorm development across parts of the FL Peninsula and Keys. Isolated diurnal storm development cannot be ruled out near any sea breeze boundaries and a remnant baroclinic zone across the peninsula, though large-scale forcing will be limited. Late in the period, thunderstorms over the Gulf may approach parts of the FL Panhandle and Keys. While some increase in deep-layer shear is possible with time, generally weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy are currently expected to limit the organized-severe threat. ..Dean.. 12/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Within a broad, large-scale trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move from the southern Great Plains into the Southeast on Sunday. In response to this system, some low-level moisture return is possible into parts of the upper TX coast and southern LA, in advance of an approaching cold front. However, persistent surface ridging will tend to keep the richer Gulf moisture mostly suppressed offshore. Early-day elevated convection will be possible across parts of the Gulf Coast, to the north of the primary baroclinic zone. Convective showers may develop later in the day across parts of LA and southern MS along/ahead of the approaching cold front, though forecast soundings currently suggest that this convection may not be sufficiently deep for lightning production. Farther east, thermodynamic profiles may become at least marginally supportive of thunderstorm development across parts of the FL Peninsula and Keys. Isolated diurnal storm development cannot be ruled out near any sea breeze boundaries and a remnant baroclinic zone across the peninsula, though large-scale forcing will be limited. Late in the period, thunderstorms over the Gulf may approach parts of the FL Panhandle and Keys. While some increase in deep-layer shear is possible with time, generally weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy are currently expected to limit the organized-severe threat. ..Dean.. 12/05/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across the Southeast states, and over parts of the northern Rockies. Added a small area of thunderstorm potential along the ID/MT border for later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level jet max are digging southeastward into the region. This will provide favorable large-scale ascent, while forecast soundings show the potential for weak, elevated CAPE. This may result in a few lightning flashes. No changes were made to the southeast states, where scattered thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart.. 12/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A split upper-flow regime over the CONUS will continue through tonight. Zonal, high momentum flow will extend from the base of a trough/upper low near Baja California east-northeastward across the Ark-La-Miss and through the Mid-Atlantic region. Visible-satellite imagery and buoy/surface observations show a cold front draped from the western part of the Gulf of America northeastward into the FL Panhandle and far southern GA. Occasional weak elevated thunderstorms are possible through the day north of the boundary from the mouth of the MS River into southern GA. A small area for a stronger thunderstorm may develop this afternoon from the FL Big Bend into extreme southern GA immediately along and south of the front. However, weak convergence and lack of appreciable forcing for ascent near the boundary will likely constrain thunderstorm activity to isolated coverage and limit intensity, despite some diurnal increase in buoyancy and the presence of strong mid- to upper flow. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across the Southeast states, and over parts of the northern Rockies. Added a small area of thunderstorm potential along the ID/MT border for later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level jet max are digging southeastward into the region. This will provide favorable large-scale ascent, while forecast soundings show the potential for weak, elevated CAPE. This may result in a few lightning flashes. No changes were made to the southeast states, where scattered thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart.. 12/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A split upper-flow regime over the CONUS will continue through tonight. Zonal, high momentum flow will extend from the base of a trough/upper low near Baja California east-northeastward across the Ark-La-Miss and through the Mid-Atlantic region. Visible-satellite imagery and buoy/surface observations show a cold front draped from the western part of the Gulf of America northeastward into the FL Panhandle and far southern GA. Occasional weak elevated thunderstorms are possible through the day north of the boundary from the mouth of the MS River into southern GA. A small area for a stronger thunderstorm may develop this afternoon from the FL Big Bend into extreme southern GA immediately along and south of the front. However, weak convergence and lack of appreciable forcing for ascent near the boundary will likely constrain thunderstorm activity to isolated coverage and limit intensity, despite some diurnal increase in buoyancy and the presence of strong mid- to upper flow. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the Mid-South on Saturday, and then move offshore of the Carolinas by early Sunday morning. Upstream, a midlevel shortwave trough and attendant surface low will move southeastward from the northern High Plains toward the mid MS Valley. Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS on Saturday. Weak convection and possibly isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the FL Peninsula, in the vicinity of a weakening front. Late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, thunderstorms may develop near the central Gulf Coast vicinity, north of an offshore front that is expected to slowly move northward late in the period. Where thunderstorms occur, generally weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy are expected to limit organized-severe potential through the period. ..Dean.. 12/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the Mid-South on Saturday, and then move offshore of the Carolinas by early Sunday morning. Upstream, a midlevel shortwave trough and attendant surface low will move southeastward from the northern High Plains toward the mid MS Valley. Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS on Saturday. Weak convection and possibly isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the FL Peninsula, in the vicinity of a weakening front. Late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, thunderstorms may develop near the central Gulf Coast vicinity, north of an offshore front that is expected to slowly move northward late in the period. Where thunderstorms occur, generally weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy are expected to limit organized-severe potential through the period. ..Dean.. 12/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. Weak lee troughing development across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Great Plains will promote a favorable dry, downslope environment across portions of eastern NM and TX Permian Basin today. West-northwest winds of 15 mph combined with relative humidity in the 15-20% range are expected, but recent precipitation, relatively cool conditions and unreceptive fuels should limit broader fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 12/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. A period of westerly downslope flow can be expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas as a weak lee-side low develops. Some overlap of relative humidity reductions around 15-20 percent will be possible for a couple of hours in the afternoon. However, recent cool and wet conditions across the southern High Plains have improved status of fuels and will mitigate any widespread fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. Weak lee troughing development across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Great Plains will promote a favorable dry, downslope environment across portions of eastern NM and TX Permian Basin today. West-northwest winds of 15 mph combined with relative humidity in the 15-20% range are expected, but recent precipitation, relatively cool conditions and unreceptive fuels should limit broader fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 12/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. A period of westerly downslope flow can be expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas as a weak lee-side low develops. Some overlap of relative humidity reductions around 15-20 percent will be possible for a couple of hours in the afternoon. However, recent cool and wet conditions across the southern High Plains have improved status of fuels and will mitigate any widespread fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A split upper-flow regime over the CONUS will continue through tonight. Zonal, high momentum flow will extend from the base of a trough/upper low near Baja California east-northeastward across the Ark-La-Miss and through the Mid-Atlantic region. Visible-satellite imagery and buoy/surface observations show a cold front draped from the western part of the Gulf of America northeastward into the FL Panhandle and far southern GA. Occasional weak elevated thunderstorms are possible through the day north of the boundary from the mouth of the MS River into southern GA. A small area for a stronger thunderstorm may develop this afternoon from the FL Big Bend into extreme southern GA immediately along and south of the front. However, weak convergence and lack of appreciable forcing for ascent near the boundary will likely constrain thunderstorm activity to isolated coverage and limit intensity, despite some diurnal increase in buoyancy and the presence of strong mid- to upper flow. ..Smith/Wendt.. 12/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A split upper-flow regime over the CONUS will continue through tonight. Zonal, high momentum flow will extend from the base of a trough/upper low near Baja California east-northeastward across the Ark-La-Miss and through the Mid-Atlantic region. Visible-satellite imagery and buoy/surface observations show a cold front draped from the western part of the Gulf of America northeastward into the FL Panhandle and far southern GA. Occasional weak elevated thunderstorms are possible through the day north of the boundary from the mouth of the MS River into southern GA. A small area for a stronger thunderstorm may develop this afternoon from the FL Big Bend into extreme southern GA immediately along and south of the front. However, weak convergence and lack of appreciable forcing for ascent near the boundary will likely constrain thunderstorm activity to isolated coverage and limit intensity, despite some diurnal increase in buoyancy and the presence of strong mid- to upper flow. ..Smith/Wendt.. 12/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level flow will persist across the Southeast today, as large-scale upper troughing over the central/eastern CONUS is further reinforced by multiple shortwave troughs advancing east-southeastward. At the surface, a cold front will slowly sag southeastward over south GA/north FL through the period. Generally elevated thunderstorms may occur today along/north of the front. But with poor mid-level lapse rates present, weak low-level convergence due to veered southwesterly low-level winds, and limited instability forecast, the chance for sustained surface-based convection and related severe potential appears low. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level flow will persist across the Southeast today, as large-scale upper troughing over the central/eastern CONUS is further reinforced by multiple shortwave troughs advancing east-southeastward. At the surface, a cold front will slowly sag southeastward over south GA/north FL through the period. Generally elevated thunderstorms may occur today along/north of the front. But with poor mid-level lapse rates present, weak low-level convergence due to veered southwesterly low-level winds, and limited instability forecast, the chance for sustained surface-based convection and related severe potential appears low. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/05/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week. Within the northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. However, these are not likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. Regardless, in the wake of a reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive to appreciable inland low-level moisture return. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week. Within the northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. However, these are not likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. Regardless, in the wake of a reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive to appreciable inland low-level moisture return. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week. Within the northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. However, these are not likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. Regardless, in the wake of a reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive to appreciable inland low-level moisture return. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging may rebuild offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, while being maintained across and inland of coastal areas through this period. Downstream flow may not change appreciably on the larger-scale, but one broad embedded cyclonic circulation may redevelop southeast of the Hudson/James Bay vicinity through central Quebec, while a consolidating perturbation within another stream digs across the central/southern Great Plains toward the Southeast. The latter feature is forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing cold intrusion across the Gulf coast into northwest Gulf Basin by late Sunday night. Downstream, a weak low may begin to develop along the initially stalled/slow moving frontal zone, east of the Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Forecast soundings indicate that relatively warm layers aloft will continue to hinder potential for deep convective development over the interior central and southern peninsula Sunday through Sunday night. In general, guidance suggests that better coupling of mid/upper forcing for ascent and higher boundary-layer moisture content may be confined to areas along/ahead of the front across the northeastern into central Gulf Basin and offshore western Atlantic. ..Kerr.. 12/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging may rebuild offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, while being maintained across and inland of coastal areas through this period. Downstream flow may not change appreciably on the larger-scale, but one broad embedded cyclonic circulation may redevelop southeast of the Hudson/James Bay vicinity through central Quebec, while a consolidating perturbation within another stream digs across the central/southern Great Plains toward the Southeast. The latter feature is forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing cold intrusion across the Gulf coast into northwest Gulf Basin by late Sunday night. Downstream, a weak low may begin to develop along the initially stalled/slow moving frontal zone, east of the Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Forecast soundings indicate that relatively warm layers aloft will continue to hinder potential for deep convective development over the interior central and southern peninsula Sunday through Sunday night. In general, guidance suggests that better coupling of mid/upper forcing for ascent and higher boundary-layer moisture content may be confined to areas along/ahead of the front across the northeastern into central Gulf Basin and offshore western Atlantic. ..Kerr.. 12/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from a possible isolated weak thunderstorm or two across parts of the central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate little change to the large-scale pattern across much of North America through this period. Downstream of lingering mid/upper ridging just inland of the Pacific coast, flow will continue to split into broad troughing centered within one branch, across Hudson Bay through portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast, and another, across the central/southern Great Plains through Southeast. Weak, positively-tilted troughing is also forecast to linger across and southwest of southern Baja, between an increasingly suppressed high over the southern mid-latitude to subtropical eastern Pacific and ridging across the Caribbean through western subtropical Atlantic. In lower levels, the primary surface front may advance a bit farther offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into the central Florida Peninsula, but models suggest it will stall across the northwestern Gulf Basin and perhaps redevelop northward toward northeastern Gulf coastal areas Saturday night. ...Northeastern Gulf coast/Florida Peninsula... Low-level moistening and insolation may contribute to boundary-layer destabilization in a corridor near/just ahead of the front across the central Florida Peninsula during the day Saturday. While this could become supportive of at least attempts at deepening convective development by late Saturday afternoon, relatively warm mid-level temperatures and weak mid/upper forcing for ascent seem likely to limit thunderstorm development to perhaps a weak thunderstorm or two. Better potential for thunderstorms may develop by late Saturday night across the northeastern Gulf, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the southern Great Plains, perhaps preceded by a perturbation emerging from the subtropics. This might include convection rooted with lift associated with lower/mid-troposphere warm advection, as far north as coastal southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Big Bend vicinity. ..Kerr.. 12/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from a possible isolated weak thunderstorm or two across parts of the central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate little change to the large-scale pattern across much of North America through this period. Downstream of lingering mid/upper ridging just inland of the Pacific coast, flow will continue to split into broad troughing centered within one branch, across Hudson Bay through portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast, and another, across the central/southern Great Plains through Southeast. Weak, positively-tilted troughing is also forecast to linger across and southwest of southern Baja, between an increasingly suppressed high over the southern mid-latitude to subtropical eastern Pacific and ridging across the Caribbean through western subtropical Atlantic. In lower levels, the primary surface front may advance a bit farther offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into the central Florida Peninsula, but models suggest it will stall across the northwestern Gulf Basin and perhaps redevelop northward toward northeastern Gulf coastal areas Saturday night. ...Northeastern Gulf coast/Florida Peninsula... Low-level moistening and insolation may contribute to boundary-layer destabilization in a corridor near/just ahead of the front across the central Florida Peninsula during the day Saturday. While this could become supportive of at least attempts at deepening convective development by late Saturday afternoon, relatively warm mid-level temperatures and weak mid/upper forcing for ascent seem likely to limit thunderstorm development to perhaps a weak thunderstorm or two. Better potential for thunderstorms may develop by late Saturday night across the northeastern Gulf, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the southern Great Plains, perhaps preceded by a perturbation emerging from the subtropics. This might include convection rooted with lift associated with lower/mid-troposphere warm advection, as far north as coastal southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Big Bend vicinity. ..Kerr.. 12/05/2025 Read more