Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast Friday. ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing over the eastern US is forecast to continue Friday as several small-scale perturbations pass over the Plains and Midwest. At the surface, a low will deepen over the northern Rockies while a stalled front will remain in place along the Gulf Coast. Behind the front, a cold and dry polar air mass will largely preclude thunderstorm development over much of the US. The exception will be along the central and northeastern Gulf Coast where a few thunderstorms are possible early. ...Southern LA to the FL Panhandle... Along the stalled front, a weak wave low is forecast to develop across the northern Gulf ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave moving out of the southern Plains. Convergence along the front and ahead of this feature could allow the front to move inland a few miles Friday morning. While not overly warm nor moist, modest destabilization could support isolated elevated thunderstorms inland and closer to the coast through midday. Strong flow aloft and backing along the front could allow for a few transient rotating cells. This appears most likely over parts of southern LA and the FL Big Bend where storms closer to the front could potentiality be near surface-based for a couple hours. However, given the weak buoyancy and few if any surface-based storms inland for a longer duration, severe potential remains too low for probabilities. ..Lyons.. 12/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast Friday. ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing over the eastern US is forecast to continue Friday as several small-scale perturbations pass over the Plains and Midwest. At the surface, a low will deepen over the northern Rockies while a stalled front will remain in place along the Gulf Coast. Behind the front, a cold and dry polar air mass will largely preclude thunderstorm development over much of the US. The exception will be along the central and northeastern Gulf Coast where a few thunderstorms are possible early. ...Southern LA to the FL Panhandle... Along the stalled front, a weak wave low is forecast to develop across the northern Gulf ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave moving out of the southern Plains. Convergence along the front and ahead of this feature could allow the front to move inland a few miles Friday morning. While not overly warm nor moist, modest destabilization could support isolated elevated thunderstorms inland and closer to the coast through midday. Strong flow aloft and backing along the front could allow for a few transient rotating cells. This appears most likely over parts of southern LA and the FL Big Bend where storms closer to the front could potentiality be near surface-based for a couple hours. However, given the weak buoyancy and few if any surface-based storms inland for a longer duration, severe potential remains too low for probabilities. ..Lyons.. 12/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... 16 UTC surface observations along the Gulf Coast show a stalling frontal boundary draped from the MS Delta region to just off the TX Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along and north of this boundary as modest isentropic ascent within the 925-850 mb layer continues ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave currently over the central Plains. The combination of diabatic cooling and building surface high pressure to the north of the boundary should keep the frontal boundary, and any surface-based buoyancy, offshore through much of the forecast period. While elevated thunderstorms will likely continue across the central Gulf Coast region through the day and into tonight, buoyancy profiles will remain too limited to support robust convection. Sporadic lightning strikes are noted across the Texarkana region, but latest forecast soundings suggest that EL levels should remain near or below -20 C, which limits confidence in lightning production beyond the next couple of hours. ..Moore.. 12/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... 16 UTC surface observations along the Gulf Coast show a stalling frontal boundary draped from the MS Delta region to just off the TX Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along and north of this boundary as modest isentropic ascent within the 925-850 mb layer continues ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave currently over the central Plains. The combination of diabatic cooling and building surface high pressure to the north of the boundary should keep the frontal boundary, and any surface-based buoyancy, offshore through much of the forecast period. While elevated thunderstorms will likely continue across the central Gulf Coast region through the day and into tonight, buoyancy profiles will remain too limited to support robust convection. Sporadic lightning strikes are noted across the Texarkana region, but latest forecast soundings suggest that EL levels should remain near or below -20 C, which limits confidence in lightning production beyond the next couple of hours. ..Moore.. 12/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... 16 UTC surface observations along the Gulf Coast show a stalling frontal boundary draped from the MS Delta region to just off the TX Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along and north of this boundary as modest isentropic ascent within the 925-850 mb layer continues ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave currently over the central Plains. The combination of diabatic cooling and building surface high pressure to the north of the boundary should keep the frontal boundary, and any surface-based buoyancy, offshore through much of the forecast period. While elevated thunderstorms will likely continue across the central Gulf Coast region through the day and into tonight, buoyancy profiles will remain too limited to support robust convection. Sporadic lightning strikes are noted across the Texarkana region, but latest forecast soundings suggest that EL levels should remain near or below -20 C, which limits confidence in lightning production beyond the next couple of hours. ..Moore.. 12/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0946 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Expansive surface high pressure characterized by cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. Locally dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across parts of southern CA, though marginal fuels and weaker surface winds compared to previous days should mitigate the overall risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0946 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Expansive surface high pressure characterized by cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. Locally dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across parts of southern CA, though marginal fuels and weaker surface winds compared to previous days should mitigate the overall risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving through NM, preceded by a extensive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft from the eastern Pacific across the southern Plains and Lower/Mid MS Valley. More confluent, single-stream, moderate to strong mid-level flow exists across the eastern CONUS. The NM shortwave is forecast to progress northeastward, loosing amplitude as it moves into the more confluent flow from the Plains eastward. This shortwave will be displaced well north of any notable low-level moisture. Recent surface analysis places a low just off the southeast TX Coast, with a warm front extending eastward from this low along the LA coast before pivoting more southeastward into more of central Gulf. Warm-air advection amid this frontal zone is contributing to a broad precipitation shield, with a few deeper embedded updrafts producing lightning, from the Lower MS Valley into southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. The surface low is forecast to progress eastward along the warm front throughout the day, with the warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms progressing eastward as well. The strongest updrafts are expected to remain within the southern periphery of this precipitation shield, largely over the coastal portions of LA, MS, and AL where modest elevated buoyancy is anticipated. Surface-based buoyancy, supported by mid/upper 60s dewpoints, may develop across far southeast LA, with an associated threat for a few stronger, more organized storms. However, localized and brief character of this threat precludes the need for any severe probabilities. Isolated thunderstorms could persist into the evening across southern LA as a cold front moves through, but buoyancy will remain limited with no severe thunderstorms expected. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 12/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving through NM, preceded by a extensive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft from the eastern Pacific across the southern Plains and Lower/Mid MS Valley. More confluent, single-stream, moderate to strong mid-level flow exists across the eastern CONUS. The NM shortwave is forecast to progress northeastward, loosing amplitude as it moves into the more confluent flow from the Plains eastward. This shortwave will be displaced well north of any notable low-level moisture. Recent surface analysis places a low just off the southeast TX Coast, with a warm front extending eastward from this low along the LA coast before pivoting more southeastward into more of central Gulf. Warm-air advection amid this frontal zone is contributing to a broad precipitation shield, with a few deeper embedded updrafts producing lightning, from the Lower MS Valley into southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. The surface low is forecast to progress eastward along the warm front throughout the day, with the warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms progressing eastward as well. The strongest updrafts are expected to remain within the southern periphery of this precipitation shield, largely over the coastal portions of LA, MS, and AL where modest elevated buoyancy is anticipated. Surface-based buoyancy, supported by mid/upper 60s dewpoints, may develop across far southeast LA, with an associated threat for a few stronger, more organized storms. However, localized and brief character of this threat precludes the need for any severe probabilities. Isolated thunderstorms could persist into the evening across southern LA as a cold front moves through, but buoyancy will remain limited with no severe thunderstorms expected. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 12/04/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS within a broader west-northwesterly to east-southeasterly upper flow regime next week. The orientation of the upper flow will support multiple southeastward surges of cooler, statically stable air, and prevent appreciable moisture return from the Gulf to the CONUS. An overall quiescent severe weather pattern is predicted for the Days 4-8 period, though a few occasional rounds of isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, where at least scant moisture-driven buoyancy may reside. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS within a broader west-northwesterly to east-southeasterly upper flow regime next week. The orientation of the upper flow will support multiple southeastward surges of cooler, statically stable air, and prevent appreciable moisture return from the Gulf to the CONUS. An overall quiescent severe weather pattern is predicted for the Days 4-8 period, though a few occasional rounds of isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, where at least scant moisture-driven buoyancy may reside. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast on Saturday. Severe storms are not currently in the forecast. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and impinge on the Midwest on Saturday, prompting a surface low over the central High Plains to translate southeastward toward the Gulf while weakening. The approach of the weakening low will spur some low-level warm-air advection and return flow along the Gulf shoreline. Buoyancy driven by this moisture however, is forecast to be scant, so mainly isolated thunderstorms are forecast, with severe thunderstorms currently not a concern. ..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast on Saturday. Severe storms are not currently in the forecast. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and impinge on the Midwest on Saturday, prompting a surface low over the central High Plains to translate southeastward toward the Gulf while weakening. The approach of the weakening low will spur some low-level warm-air advection and return flow along the Gulf shoreline. Buoyancy driven by this moisture however, is forecast to be scant, so mainly isolated thunderstorms are forecast, with severe thunderstorms currently not a concern. ..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast tomorrow (Friday) or Friday night. ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will overspread much of the CONUS tomorrow (Friday), prompting a surface trough to impinge on the Great Lakes region while another surface low quickly develops along the northern High Plains. Regardless of the synoptic weather pattern in place, a relatively cool/dry, statically stable airmass will encompass much of the Interior West, to the Plains states, eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. Therefore, thunderstorm development will be limited across much of the CONUS. The one exception will be along the Gulf Coast. Here, low-level moisture advection, prompted by an approaching upper trough, will supply enough deep-layer ascent amid scant buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) for a few thunderstorms through Friday. ..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast tomorrow (Friday) or Friday night. ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will overspread much of the CONUS tomorrow (Friday), prompting a surface trough to impinge on the Great Lakes region while another surface low quickly develops along the northern High Plains. Regardless of the synoptic weather pattern in place, a relatively cool/dry, statically stable airmass will encompass much of the Interior West, to the Plains states, eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. Therefore, thunderstorm development will be limited across much of the CONUS. The one exception will be along the Gulf Coast. Here, low-level moisture advection, prompted by an approaching upper trough, will supply enough deep-layer ascent amid scant buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) for a few thunderstorms through Friday. ..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Across the U.S. today, mid-level flow will remain northwesterly in the western states as a trough moves through the Great Plains. West-southwesterly flow aloft will be in place across the Southeast. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located over the western and central Gulf. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the northern edge of the moist airmass along parts of the western and central Gulf Coast, and further north into the lower Sabine and lower Mississippi River Valleys. Low-level moisture and instability is expected to be insufficient for severe storms. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 12/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Across the U.S. today, mid-level flow will remain northwesterly in the western states as a trough moves through the Great Plains. West-southwesterly flow aloft will be in place across the Southeast. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located over the western and central Gulf. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the northern edge of the moist airmass along parts of the western and central Gulf Coast, and further north into the lower Sabine and lower Mississippi River Valleys. Low-level moisture and instability is expected to be insufficient for severe storms. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 12/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Downslope flow off the southern Rockies and weak lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will favor 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH from east-central NM into the TX South Plains during the afternoon. However, ongoing precipitation atop marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Downslope flow off the southern Rockies and weak lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will favor 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH from east-central NM into the TX South Plains during the afternoon. However, ongoing precipitation atop marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Expansive surface high pressure characterized by cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. Locally dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across parts of southern CA, though marginal fuels and weaker surface winds compared to previous days should mitigate the overall risk. ..Weinman.. 12/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more