SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Expansive surface high pressure characterized by cold surface
temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS.
Locally dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across parts of
southern CA, though marginal fuels and weaker surface winds compared
to previous days should mitigate the overall risk.
..Weinman.. 12/04/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS...
...SUMMARY...
A storm with isolated severe hail will be possible tonight along the
upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts.
...Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana Coasts...
Water vapor imagery shows a trough over the Desert Southwest with
west-southwesterly flow located across much of the southern U.S. At
the surface, a moist airmass is located over much of the western
Gulf. The northern edge of the moist airmass impinges the middle
Texas Coast, and model forecasts suggest that the airmass will
gradually shift northeastward along the upper Texas into far
southwest Louisiana. Although warm-advection-related thunderstorms
will be mostly concentrated offshore, an isolated strong storm with
hail potential could develop in far southeast Texas or far southwest
Louisiana from late evening into the overnight period.
..Broyles.. 12/04/2025
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS...
...SUMMARY...
A storm with isolated severe hail will be possible tonight along the
upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts.
...Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana Coasts...
Water vapor imagery shows a trough over the Desert Southwest with
west-southwesterly flow located across much of the southern U.S. At
the surface, a moist airmass is located over much of the western
Gulf. The northern edge of the moist airmass impinges the middle
Texas Coast, and model forecasts suggest that the airmass will
gradually shift northeastward along the upper Texas into far
southwest Louisiana. Although warm-advection-related thunderstorms
will be mostly concentrated offshore, an isolated strong storm with
hail potential could develop in far southeast Texas or far southwest
Louisiana from late evening into the overnight period.
..Broyles.. 12/04/2025
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS...
...SUMMARY...
A storm with isolated severe hail will be possible tonight along the
upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts.
...Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana Coasts...
Water vapor imagery shows a trough over the Desert Southwest with
west-southwesterly flow located across much of the southern U.S. At
the surface, a moist airmass is located over much of the western
Gulf. The northern edge of the moist airmass impinges the middle
Texas Coast, and model forecasts suggest that the airmass will
gradually shift northeastward along the upper Texas into far
southwest Louisiana. Although warm-advection-related thunderstorms
will be mostly concentrated offshore, an isolated strong storm with
hail potential could develop in far southeast Texas or far southwest
Louisiana from late evening into the overnight period.
..Broyles.. 12/04/2025
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
Longer term ensemble guidance suggests a large scale upper-level
troughing pattern should hold across the eastern U.S. through the
middle of next week. This should facilitate a mostly stable and
colder air mass across much of the eastern U.S., limiting the fire
weather threat. A mid-level jet and associated ascent in addition to
a frontal boundary meandering near the Gulf Coast should bring
several rounds of rain to much of the Deep South and Piedmont
regions, where severe/extreme drought lingers in portions of
southern GA/northern FL. Farther west, model guidance shows a
gradually expanding upper-level ridge across building into CA and
Desert Southwest through the weekend, allowing dry conditions and
above normal temperatures to develop. A short wave within the
broader northwest flow aloft translates southeastward into the
central/southern Rockies on Day 4/Saturday while a lee cyclone
evolves across the central/southern High Plains. Dry and breezy
conditions should develop across eastern NM and West TX on Day
4/Saturday but antecedent precipitation tonight into Day 2/Thursday,
including accumulating snowfall, should mitigate fire weather
impacts overall into the weekend. The Southern Plains will remain
the focus for fire weather concerns on Days 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday
with potential lee cyclone/trough development along the
central/southern High Plains under robust northwest flow aloft.
However, uncertainty in fuels precludes introducing critical
probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 12/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
Longer term ensemble guidance suggests a large scale upper-level
troughing pattern should hold across the eastern U.S. through the
middle of next week. This should facilitate a mostly stable and
colder air mass across much of the eastern U.S., limiting the fire
weather threat. A mid-level jet and associated ascent in addition to
a frontal boundary meandering near the Gulf Coast should bring
several rounds of rain to much of the Deep South and Piedmont
regions, where severe/extreme drought lingers in portions of
southern GA/northern FL. Farther west, model guidance shows a
gradually expanding upper-level ridge across building into CA and
Desert Southwest through the weekend, allowing dry conditions and
above normal temperatures to develop. A short wave within the
broader northwest flow aloft translates southeastward into the
central/southern Rockies on Day 4/Saturday while a lee cyclone
evolves across the central/southern High Plains. Dry and breezy
conditions should develop across eastern NM and West TX on Day
4/Saturday but antecedent precipitation tonight into Day 2/Thursday,
including accumulating snowfall, should mitigate fire weather
impacts overall into the weekend. The Southern Plains will remain
the focus for fire weather concerns on Days 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday
with potential lee cyclone/trough development along the
central/southern High Plains under robust northwest flow aloft.
However, uncertainty in fuels precludes introducing critical
probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 12/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER TX GULF COAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
A stronger storm or two is possible along the upper Texas Gulf Coast
into the Sabine Valley. Marginally severe hail could occur.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the outlook are necessary. See the previous discussion
for additional details.
..Wendt.. 12/03/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level wave traversing the Four Corners region as of
mid-morning is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plains
through early Thursday morning. West/southwesterly mid-level flow
will steadily increase to around 50-60 knots as the wave approaches,
which will help advect a plume of modestly steep (7 to 7.5 C/km)
lapse rates out of northern Mexico towards the TX/LA Gulf Coast
region through tonight. At the surface, a weak surface low noted off
the south TX coast will gradually intensify and lift northward
towards the LA coast as broad-scale ascent ahead of the upper wave
increases later tonight. The combination of increasing ascent and
steepening lapse rates will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorms tonight into early Thursday morning for much of the TX
Coastal Plain and central to southern LA.
...Upper TX Gulf Coast to far southwest LA...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along
the upper TX Gulf Coast around 02-04 UTC tonight as warm advection
atop a residual frontal boundary increases. Forecast consensus is
that the surface low will remain off the coast through the forecast
period, which will limit the potential for surface-based convection.
However, strong moistening/ascent within the 925-850 mb layer will
likely support a narrow swath of deep convection along the TX coast
where MUCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg. Within this zone, buoyancy
profiles should be deep enough to realize the favorable kinematic
environment, which will be characterized by elongated hodographs and
effective shear of around 50 knots. Destructive storm
interactions/modes will likely modulate the overall longevity of any
particular cell, but the sufficient thermodynamic/kinematic
environment may support a few brief strong/severe storms capable of
small to severe hail.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER TX GULF COAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
A stronger storm or two is possible along the upper Texas Gulf Coast
into the Sabine Valley. Marginally severe hail could occur.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the outlook are necessary. See the previous discussion
for additional details.
..Wendt.. 12/03/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level wave traversing the Four Corners region as of
mid-morning is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plains
through early Thursday morning. West/southwesterly mid-level flow
will steadily increase to around 50-60 knots as the wave approaches,
which will help advect a plume of modestly steep (7 to 7.5 C/km)
lapse rates out of northern Mexico towards the TX/LA Gulf Coast
region through tonight. At the surface, a weak surface low noted off
the south TX coast will gradually intensify and lift northward
towards the LA coast as broad-scale ascent ahead of the upper wave
increases later tonight. The combination of increasing ascent and
steepening lapse rates will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorms tonight into early Thursday morning for much of the TX
Coastal Plain and central to southern LA.
...Upper TX Gulf Coast to far southwest LA...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along
the upper TX Gulf Coast around 02-04 UTC tonight as warm advection
atop a residual frontal boundary increases. Forecast consensus is
that the surface low will remain off the coast through the forecast
period, which will limit the potential for surface-based convection.
However, strong moistening/ascent within the 925-850 mb layer will
likely support a narrow swath of deep convection along the TX coast
where MUCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg. Within this zone, buoyancy
profiles should be deep enough to realize the favorable kinematic
environment, which will be characterized by elongated hodographs and
effective shear of around 50 knots. Destructive storm
interactions/modes will likely modulate the overall longevity of any
particular cell, but the sufficient thermodynamic/kinematic
environment may support a few brief strong/severe storms capable of
small to severe hail.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook with minimal fire
weather concerns across the contiguous U.S. An ongoing offshore wind
event from the east-northeast will begin to wane Thursday afternoon
across southern CA as surface pressure gradients relax throughout
the day. Existing marginal fuel conditions should reduce wildfire
spread potential, limiting impacts from the dry and locally breezy
winds.
..Williams.. 12/03/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025/
...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure over the Intermountain West will favor another
day of locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southern
CA. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible,
marginal fuels should limit most concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook with minimal fire
weather concerns across the contiguous U.S. An ongoing offshore wind
event from the east-northeast will begin to wane Thursday afternoon
across southern CA as surface pressure gradients relax throughout
the day. Existing marginal fuel conditions should reduce wildfire
spread potential, limiting impacts from the dry and locally breezy
winds.
..Williams.. 12/03/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025/
...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure over the Intermountain West will favor another
day of locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southern
CA. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible,
marginal fuels should limit most concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Friday or Friday night.
...FL Panhandle vicinity...
Isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z
Friday along the western and central Gulf Coast, within a broad
swath of low-level isentropic ascent atop a slow-moving offshore
surface front. This will spread east during the day across parts of
the Southeast. Some of the non-CAM guidance suggest the front may
penetrate inland in a portion of the FL Panhandle attendant to a
decaying weak surface low. With the synoptic pattern favoring a
broad/low-amplitude trough into the south-central states,
large-scale ascent and mid-level lapse rates should remain weak,
compounding uncertainty in how much surface-based destabilization
can occur with any afternoon convection. The bulk of ML guidance
outside of the SPC-CSU indicates less than 5 percent severe probs as
well. As such, will defer to later outlooks for a potential
mesoscale level 1-MRGL risk.
..Grams.. 12/03/2025
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Friday or Friday night.
...FL Panhandle vicinity...
Isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z
Friday along the western and central Gulf Coast, within a broad
swath of low-level isentropic ascent atop a slow-moving offshore
surface front. This will spread east during the day across parts of
the Southeast. Some of the non-CAM guidance suggest the front may
penetrate inland in a portion of the FL Panhandle attendant to a
decaying weak surface low. With the synoptic pattern favoring a
broad/low-amplitude trough into the south-central states,
large-scale ascent and mid-level lapse rates should remain weak,
compounding uncertainty in how much surface-based destabilization
can occur with any afternoon convection. The bulk of ML guidance
outside of the SPC-CSU indicates less than 5 percent severe probs as
well. As such, will defer to later outlooks for a potential
mesoscale level 1-MRGL risk.
..Grams.. 12/03/2025
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night.
...Western/central Gulf Coast...
Elevated convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning along
portions of the northwest Gulf Coast, with a surface front likely
offshore of the Middle TX to southern LA coasts. Strong deep
convection should be relegated along and south of this front in the
adjacent coastal waters, which should result in greater southeast
displacement of the boundary away from the TX/southwest LA coast
during the day. The front could brush extreme southeast LA towards
midday/early afternoon, but the bulk of CAM guidance indicates that
severe gust/waterspout potential should be confined offshore. With
the primary upstream shortwave trough quickly moving from the
southern High Plains to the OH Valley and remaining low amplitude,
the surface reflection along the outflow-reinforced front will be
weak. As such, while severe probabilities may not be zero, they
appear too low to warrant a categorical highlight over land.
..Grams.. 12/03/2025
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook with benign fire weather
and/or fuel conditions across CONUS. A southward progressing cold
front moving through the Desert Southwest is initiating an offshore
wind event across southern CA this morning. Surface high pressure
settling into the Great Basin will maintain the offshore pressure
gradient, supporting east-northeast winds within favored terrain and
gaps through tonight. Despite elevated east-northeast winds of 15-25
mph and relative humidity dropping to around 15%, relatively cool
temperatures and marginal fuel dryness should mitigate significant
wildfire spread potential.
..Williams.. 12/03/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025/
...Synopsis...
On the backside of a midlevel trough moving across the Four Corners
region, high pressure over the Intermountain West will promote an
enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. While
locally dry/breezy conditions are expected (especially across
wind-prone mountains and valleys), marginal fuels should limit most
fire-weather concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER TX GULF COAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight across the
western Gulf Coast states. Severe storms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level wave traversing the Four Corners region as of
mid-morning is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plains
through early Thursday morning. West/southwesterly mid-level flow
will steadily increase to around 50-60 knots as the wave approaches,
which will help advect a plume of modestly steep (7 to 7.5 C/km)
lapse rates out of northern Mexico towards the TX/LA Gulf Coast
region through tonight. At the surface, a weak surface low noted off
the south TX coast will gradually intensify and lift northward
towards the LA coast as broad-scale ascent ahead of the upper wave
increases later tonight. The combination of increasing ascent and
steepening lapse rates will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorms tonight into early Thursday morning for much of the TX
Coastal Plain and central to southern LA.
...Upper TX Gulf Coast to far southwest LA...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along
the upper TX Gulf Coast around 02-04 UTC tonight as warm advection
atop a residual frontal boundary increases. Forecast consensus is
that the surface low will remain off the coast through the forecast
period, which will limit the potential for surface-based convection.
However, strong moistening/ascent within the 925-850 mb layer will
likely support a narrow swath of deep convection along the TX coast
where MUCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg. Within this zone, buoyancy
profiles should be deep enough to realize the favorable kinematic
environment, which will be characterized by elongated hodographs and
effective shear of around 50 knots. Destructive storm
interactions/modes will likely modulate the overall longevity of any
particular cell, but the sufficient thermodynamic/kinematic
environment may support a few brief strong/severe storms capable of
small to severe hail.
..Moore.. 12/03/2025
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS while translating
within a broader west-northwest to east-southeasterly upper level
flow regime through the Days 4-8 period. Periodic bouts of surface
high pressure will reinforce a statically stable, cool and dry
airmass across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development.
One exception will be with the Gulf Coast states early next week,
when a surface low preceding one of the embedded mid-level troughs
will encourage onshore flow from the Gulf. Should this occur, enough
buoyancy will be in place (along with deep-layer ascent) to support
thunderstorms. However, buoyancy may be too weak to support a severe
threat.
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast to the Florida
Peninsula on Friday. The risk for severe storms currently appears
very low.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will persist across the central and eastern
CONUS, resulting in surface high pressure overspreading much of the
eastern U.S. as a surface low develops over the northern High Plains
on Friday. Relatively cold and/or dry, statically stable air will be
present over most portions of the CONUS, which will limit
thunderstorm potential. A surface low along the eastern Gulf coast
will traverse the northern FL peninsula during the day. Low-level
moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the surface low along the
Gulf Coast, where primarily elevated buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred
J/kg MUCAPE) will support a few thunderstorms through the period.
Given the meager and primarily elevated nature of the buoyancy, the
chances for severe storms appears too low for the introduction of
severe probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible tomorrow (Thursday)
across coastal portions of the western and central Gulf Coast
vicinity. Severe potential appears very low at this time.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will gradually progress across the central
and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday), encouraging surface high
pressure and static stability to overspread most of the CONUS,
limiting thunderstorm development. However, weak surface low
development should take place along the TX coastline during the day,
with the low translating eastward along the Gulf Coast into early
Friday morning. Warm-air advection ahead and to the north of the low
will encourage at least weak, elevated buoyancy to spread inland,
where isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible.
Current guidance suggests that the surface warm front should remain
just offshore, along with surface-based instability. As such, the
severe threat appears too low to warrant probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025
Read more
