SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible tomorrow (Thursday)
across coastal portions of the western and central Gulf Coast
vicinity. Severe potential appears very low at this time.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will gradually progress across the central
and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday), encouraging surface high
pressure and static stability to overspread most of the CONUS,
limiting thunderstorm development. However, weak surface low
development should take place along the TX coastline during the day,
with the low translating eastward along the Gulf Coast into early
Friday morning. Warm-air advection ahead and to the north of the low
will encourage at least weak, elevated buoyancy to spread inland,
where isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible.
Current guidance suggests that the surface warm front should remain
just offshore, along with surface-based instability. As such, the
severe threat appears too low to warrant probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight across the
western Gulf Coast states. Severe storms are not expected.
...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels today, a trough will dig south-southeastward into the
Desert Southwest, as flow becomes west-southwesterly across much of
the southern U.S. In response, moisture advection will take place
across the western Gulf Coast states. By mid to late evening,
surface dewpoints are expected to reach the middle to upper 60s F
along parts of the Texas Coast. This will result in an increase in
instability supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development. As warm advection continues into the overnight period,
a gradual increase in convective coverage should occur, mainly
offshore where instability and low-level flow are forecast to be
stronger. Due to this, some cell organization could occur just
offshore from the upper Texas Coast after midnight with a few
rotating storms possible. Over land, instability is forecast to
remain relatively weak, which is expected to limit the severe
potential through daybreak on Thursday.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 12/03/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight across the
western Gulf Coast states. Severe storms are not expected.
...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels today, a trough will dig south-southeastward into the
Desert Southwest, as flow becomes west-southwesterly across much of
the southern U.S. In response, moisture advection will take place
across the western Gulf Coast states. By mid to late evening,
surface dewpoints are expected to reach the middle to upper 60s F
along parts of the Texas Coast. This will result in an increase in
instability supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development. As warm advection continues into the overnight period,
a gradual increase in convective coverage should occur, mainly
offshore where instability and low-level flow are forecast to be
stronger. Due to this, some cell organization could occur just
offshore from the upper Texas Coast after midnight with a few
rotating storms possible. Over land, instability is forecast to
remain relatively weak, which is expected to limit the severe
potential through daybreak on Thursday.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 12/03/2025
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure over the Intermountain West will favor another
day of locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southern
CA. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible,
marginal fuels should limit most concerns.
..Weinman.. 12/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure over the Intermountain West will favor another
day of locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southern
CA. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible,
marginal fuels should limit most concerns.
..Weinman.. 12/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
On the backside of a midlevel trough moving across the Four Corners
region, high pressure over the Intermountain West will promote an
enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. While
locally dry/breezy conditions are expected (especially across
wind-prone mountains and valleys), marginal fuels should limit most
fire-weather concerns.
..Weinman.. 12/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
On the backside of a midlevel trough moving across the Four Corners
region, high pressure over the Intermountain West will promote an
enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. While
locally dry/breezy conditions are expected (especially across
wind-prone mountains and valleys), marginal fuels should limit most
fire-weather concerns.
..Weinman.. 12/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today/tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more info.
..Thornton.. 11/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025/
...Southern Plains vicinity...
A midlevel shortwave impulse will eject across the southern Rockies
into the southern Plains today ahead of a stronger upper trough
digging southeast from the northern Rockies into much of the Great
Plains tonight. Resulting increases in west/southwesterly midlevel
flow will overspread weak northward moisture return across TX as a
surface low develops/modestly deepens over KS/OK.
Showers will increase today into tonight from central TX, north and
east across portions of the Plains into the Ozarks. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible this evening and tonight as midlevel
temperatures cool and lapse rates modestly steepen. However, meager
boundary layer moisture will limit instability, with forecast
soundings generally indicating 500 J/kg or less MUCAPE. Severe
potential appears low given expected modest updrafts
intensity/longevity.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will extend from Hudson Bay southward into the
Great Lakes region on Sunday, and will pivot across the Northeast
through early Monday. West of this trough, another strong trough
will dive southeastward across the Great Basin and Rockies. For the
southern Plains into the Southeast, moderate westerly winds aloft
will persist with nearly zonal flow.
At the surface, a large area of high pressure will extend from MT
into the Plains early Sunday, settling across the Midwest/mid MS and
OH Valleys into Monday morning. Given the cool air mass over most of
the CONUS, thunderstorms chances will be limited to the immediate
Gulf Coast where the cold front will undercut residual moisture.
Given minimal elevated instability and lift, any convection is
expected to remain non-severe.
..Jewell.. 11/28/2025
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous
discussion for more details.
..Nauslar.. 11/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025/
...Synopsis...
Breezy surface winds are expected across the southern High Plains in
the vicinity of a cold front moving through the area. Over southeast
NM, around 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will
briefly overlap 15-20 percent RH ahead of the front during the
afternoon. However, marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather
concerns.
Farther east, dry return flow is expected across parts of the
Southeast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are
possible (given receptive fuels), generally light surface winds
should limit the overall fire-weather risk compared to previous
days.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
southeast Texas into western Louisiana Saturday afternoon and
evening.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move from the central Plains into the Ohio
Valley and upper Great Lakes on Saturday, with a midlevel speed max
strengthening as it expands northeastward from KS to NY. East of
this system, upper ridging will occur over the East as a trough
moves out of the Maritimes.
At the surface, low pressure will move from OK/KS into northern IL
by 00Z, with a cold front trailing southwest across southern MO,
western AR, and northern TX by that time. A large area of high
pressure will remain over much of the eastern CONUS, with a surface
ridge extending into the northern Gulf for much of the day. As such,
low-level moisture return will be limited from the western Gulf into
TX, with low to mid 60s F dewpoints spreading northward ahead of the
cold front. Southwesterly 850 mb winds to around 50 kt will aid
elevated moisture advection across eastern TX/LA, while the stronger
surface-based instability stays generally west of the Sabine River.
...Eastern TX into western LA...
Modest heating is forecast over central TX ahead of the cold front
during the afternoon, though much of eastern TX into LA will remain
cool at the surface. Coincident with peak heating, thunderstorms are
likely to develop as the cold front intercepts the moist plume over
northern TX around 21Z. While profiles aloft will be cool, lapse
rates will not be particularly steep. With MLCAPE perhaps up to 1000
J/kg within the theta-e plume, and effective shear of 30-40 kt,
marginal hail cannot be ruled out. Locally strong gusts may also
accompany the storms as the cold front surges south.
Farther south, additional activity may develop ahead of the cold
front over southeast TX as moisture increases. Low-level wind fields
will be weak overall, but veering with height. As such, a weak/brief
tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, a line of storms will push
south along with the surging cold front, with marginal hail or
locally gusty winds. Severe risk into LA is less certain, as the
surface air mass remains cool with elevated instability. SBCAPE may
develop into southwest LA late in the period, supporting low severe
probabilities.
..Jewell.. 11/28/2025
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today/tonight.
...Southern Plains vicinity...
A midlevel shortwave impulse will eject across the southern Rockies
into the southern Plains today ahead of a stronger upper trough
digging southeast from the northern Rockies into much of the Great
Plains tonight. Resulting increases in west/southwesterly midlevel
flow will overspread weak northward moisture return across TX as a
surface low develops/modestly deepens over KS/OK.
Showers will increase today into tonight from central TX, north and
east across portions of the Plains into the Ozarks. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible this evening and tonight as midlevel
temperatures cool and lapse rates modestly steepen. However, meager
boundary layer moisture will limit instability, with forecast
soundings generally indicating 500 J/kg or less MUCAPE. Severe
potential appears low given expected modest updrafts
intensity/longevity.
..Leitman.. 11/28/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
The Elevated area was expanded slightly to the northwest in the
Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia and trimmed along the
eastern/southern edges based on the latest observations and
high-resolution forecast guidance. Elevated winds/RH are already
occurring in portions of the risk area as the forecast remains on
track. Please see the previous discussion for more details.
..Nauslar.. 11/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025/
...Synopsis...
Diurnal heating amid a dry post-frontal air mass will result in
15-25 percent afternoon RH across parts of the Southeast. These dry
conditions combined with breezy/gusty northerly surface winds
(sustained around 15 mph) will result in elevated fire-weather
conditions across parts of southern GA and the western half of the
FL Peninsula during the afternoon, given dry/receptive fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Weak thunderstorm activity may begin to develop across parts of
western Texas by this afternoon, before increasing within an
expanding area of precipitation across parts of the central and
southern Great Plains toward lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys
tonight.
...Discussion...
Downstream of amplifying flow, including building mid/upper ridging
across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, it appears that at least a
couple of short wave perturbations may consolidate into larger-scale
digging troughing across and east of the Canadian and northern U.S.
Rockies later today through tonight. There is notable spread still
evident within/among the model output concerning this evolution, but
models generally indicate that this will be accompanied by modest
surface cyclogenesis across parts of eastern Colorado into the
adjacent central Great Plains by 12Z Saturday.
This is close on the heels of a cool/dry intrusion still ongoing
across the central into southwestern Gulf Basin, in the wake of
amplified mid/upper troughing approaching the Atlantic Seaboard.
However, the most significant short wave perturbation still digging
within this regime is forecast to rapidly accelerate into the
northwestern Atlantic today through tonight, and trailing surface
ridging likely will begin shifting east of the southern Great
Plains/lower Mississippi Valley. Models suggest that this will
occur in a manner allowing for a strengthening southerly return flow
from the Texas South Plains/lower Rio Grande Valley toward the lower
Missouri Valley by late tonight.
This may be accompanied by rapid north-northeastward advection of
moisture now present across/east of the Mexican Plateau, and include
near-surface dew points increasing through the mid 50s to lower 60s
F across Deep South Texas into portions of western North Texas by
the end of the period. However, to the north of Deep South Texas,
where relatively warm mid-level temperatures probably will inhibit
thunderstorm development, the moisture return is generally forecast
above a residual cool/stable near-surface layer, which will remain
deeper with northward/eastward extent into the central Great Plains
and lower/middle Mississippi Valley.
Still, forecast soundings indicate that this moistening, near the
base of a layer of steepening lapse rates aided by
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, will provide support for
convective development capable of producing lightning. It appears
that this could initiate across the Permian Basin vicinity by this
afternoon, if not perhaps earlier, before forcing for ascent
supports increasingly widespread convection and embedded weak
thunderstorm activity across parts of the southern into central
Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley tonight.
..Kerr/Weinman.. 11/28/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
nation tonight.
...01Z Update...
Drying and stabilizing trends are now well underway across
southeastern Florida coastal areas and the Keys, where
lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields have veered to northwesterly.
Some lightning was noted earlier in a convective band within
west-southwesterly low-level flow emanating from Lake Ontario, where
trajectories across the relatively warm lake waters are maximized.
Additional convection occasionally becoming capable of producing
lightning appears possible to the east of Lake Ontario through at
least 05-06Z, before this potential becomes more negligible as mean
lower/mid-tropospheric winds begin to veer to a more
westerly/northwesterly component.
..Kerr.. 11/28/2025
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to the thunder line to account for
ongoing trends across the Florida peninsula. Otherwise, no
additional changes are needed. See previous discussion for more
information.
..Thornton.. 11/27/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the central/eastern
CONUS will develop slowly eastward through the period. Isolated
thunderstorm potential today will generally remain limited to parts
of south FL and the Keys along/ahead of a southward-moving cold
front. 11/12Z soundings from XMR/TBW/KEY show southwesterly winds
strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. While sufficient
deep-layer shear may exist to support a stronger thunderstorm or two
this afternoon, especially along the Atlantic Coast in south FL, the
presence of poor mid-level lapse rates and weak low-level winds
should hinder the risk for organized severe thunderstorms over land.
Isolated lightning flashes may also occur with snow bands occurring
in western NY off of Lake Ontario.
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MD 2236 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 2236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Areas affected...Northern Lower Michigan
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 271700Z - 272200Z
SUMMARY...Snowfall rates of 1-2 inch per hour remain possible
through mid/late afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A dominant snow band off of Lake Michigan, with
upstream connection to Lake Superior, continues early this afternoon
in northern Lower Michigan. Dual-pol data from KAPX shows higher KDP
values within this band suggesting 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates
are possible. Given limited change in the large-scale environment
over the next few hours, this band is expected to persist through
the afternoon. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests this as
well. The most intense snowfall rates will likely being to wane by
late afternoon as mid-level ascent from a shortwave trough moves
away from the region. As this occurs, there may be a slight
southward wobble in the band as 850-700 mb winds subtly take on a
more northerly component.
..Wendt.. 11/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...APX...
LAT...LON 44358438 44878534 45088560 45208556 45458547 44668384
44298383 44358438
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