SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
southeast Texas into western Louisiana Saturday afternoon or
evening.
...Synopsis...
The shortwave trough over the central Plains will move eastward as
mid-level westerly flow intensifies from the Plains to the MS Valley
and Midwest Saturday/Sunday. A surface low attendant to the trough
will move from OK/KS to the southern Great Lakes as a strong cold
front moves south from the Red River to the lower MS Valley.
Moisture return ahead of the front will support scattered
thunderstorms across eastern TX, the Sabine Valley and lower MS
valley through early morning Sunday.
...Southeast TX to western LA...
With southerly surface flow expected to develop ahead of the
deepening surface cyclone over the Plains Saturday, low-level
moisture advection should increase across coastal and southeast TX
into LA. A warm front will slowly lift northward, stalling over
southwest LA as it encounters a deep and cool air mass farther
north. Continued low-level warm air advection (despite ongoing
showers and remnant clouds) should allow for gradual destabilization
Saturday afternoon. While overall forcing for ascent appears weak as
the upper trough departs to the north, scattered thunderstorm
development appears probable, both within the low-level warm
advection regime and along the approaching cold front from the
Northwest. Given expected mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath 7-8
C/km mid-level lapse rates, around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE could support a
few stronger updrafts late Saturday through Sunday morning. Residual
westerly flow aloft may also favor some storm organization with
multicell lines or clusters and perhaps transient supercells capable
of damaging gusts and hail. This is most likely from the TX coastal
Plain to southwestern LA before the cold front moves offshore into
the Gulf.
..Lyons.. 11/27/2025
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the most recent
high-resolution forecast guidance. Locally elevated conditions
remain likely in portions of the Florida Panhandle, southwest
Georgia, and southeast Alabama outside of the Elevated area.
Temperatures will likely be a bit cooler tomorrow than today, but
after dry/breezy conditions today, fuels are likely to be even more
receptive.
..Nauslar.. 11/27/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025/
...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough over the Eastern CONUS will move offshore
throughout the day, with enhanced zonal mid/upper level flow
persisting in its wake. At the surface, a dry/breezy post-frontal
airmass will remain in place across much of the Southeast.
...Central Florida and far Southern Georgia...
A continuation of dry northerly low-level flow into the region along
with diurnal heating will result in RH values falling into the teens
during the afternoon. Despite somewhat enhanced upper-level flow,
afternoon winds may approach 15-20 mph, at least in localized areas,
resulting in Elevated fire-weather conditions. Fuels will remain
quite receptive to large-fire spread amid a few days of persistent
dry low-level advection. The Elevated area was expanded to the
northwest based on wind/RH combos depicted in the latest
high-resolution guidance and limited recent precipitation occurring
across the region.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains and lower
Missouri Valley Friday night into early Saturday morning. Severe
thunderstorms are not currently expected.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging over the central US will shift eastward behind a
departing trough over the East. A second trough will deepen over the
Rockies encouraging lee cyclogenesis over the southern Plains
Friday. As the surface low deepens, modest low-level moisture will
advect northward with a 40-60 kt southerly low-level jet. Lift from
the approaching trough and an attendant cold front will support
isolated thunderstorms from the southern Plains to the lower MO
Valley late Friday into early Saturday.
...Southern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley...
Ahead of the lee low, strong low-level warm air advection will
transport middling surface moisture northward over parts of
central/north TX into southern OK ahead of the surging cold front.
In the wake of the prior frontal passage, a persistent surface
stable layer is likely to prevent substantial northward moisture
return over the southern Plains. However, cold mid-level
temperatures (H5 temps -24C) beneath the deepening upper trough will
likely support some elevated buoyancy development late Friday,
overnight into Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within
the boarder warm advection band. While generally weak, (~250-500
J/kg MUCAPE) sufficient destabilization and strong flow aloft could
support an occasional stronger storm capable of small hail from
northeast TX into eastern OK and the Ozarks. But, given the limited
thermodynamics, a sustained severe risk appears unlikely.
..Lyons.. 11/27/2025
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the central/eastern
CONUS will develop slowly eastward through the period. Isolated
thunderstorm potential today will generally remain limited to parts
of south FL and the Keys along/ahead of a southward-moving cold
front. 11/12Z soundings from XMR/TBW/KEY show southwesterly winds
strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. While sufficient
deep-layer shear may exist to support a stronger thunderstorm or two
this afternoon, especially along the Atlantic Coast in south FL, the
presence of poor mid-level lapse rates and weak low-level winds
should hinder the risk for organized severe thunderstorms over land.
Isolated lightning flashes may also occur with snow bands occurring
in western NY off of Lake Ontario.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/27/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0934 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 271700Z - 281200Z
A slight expansion west and north was made to the Elevated area
based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast
guidance. While a few locations in southern Georgia/north Florida
within the Elevated area saw recent (last 48 hours) rainfall of
0.35-0.75", these areas have KBDI values of 600-700+ with ongoing
long-term severe to exceptional drought. Northwest winds gusts of
10-25 mph are already occurring with RH generally 35-50% in/near the
Elevated area. Locally elevated conditions remain likely farther
north/west into central Georgia, southeast Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle as well.
..Nauslar.. 11/27/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025/
...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS
will shift east throughout the day. At the surface, a dry
post-frontal airmass will continue to overspread much of the
Southeast, accompanied by breezy northwest winds.
...Portions of Southeast Georgia and North-Central Florida...
The aforementioned dry/breezy conditions will lead to Elevated
fire-weather concerns for the region, from late morning through late
afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s and lower 60s
F, with dew point temperatures in the low 20s F, resulting in RH
values into the low 20s and upper teens. Meanwhile, sustained winds
of 10-15 mph, gusting to 20-25 mph, will occur amid receptive fuels,
characterized by relatively high ERC values and limited recent
precipitation. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained
for the region, with some expansion into the Florida Panhandle and
southern Georgia based on the latest wind/RH/fuel guidance.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
southeast Texas into northern Louisiana Saturday afternoon or
evening.
...Synopsis...
A surface low will translate northeast from the southern Plains
toward the Great lakes as a broad mid-level trough overspreads the
central U.S. on Saturday. Relatively rich low-level moisture return
will occur across the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold
front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should occur
within a warm-air advection regime. Given strong vertical wind shear
in place due to a departing low-level jet, isolated strong to severe
storms are possible across the TX Coastal Plain toward the Sabine
River Valley ahead of the approaching cold front.
...Southeast Texas into northern Louisiana...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the
southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley within the warm-air
advection regime. Through the day, airmass modification will result
in some boundary layer destabilization as cloudiness and
precipitation gradually clears the warm sector over southeastern TX.
Over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may materialize if surface temperatures can
exceed 70 F given expected mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath 7-8
C/km mid-level lapse rates. A surface cold front will sweep
southeastward toward eastern TX. However, the mid-level trough
should pivot northeastward through the day. As such, the surface low
and accompanying low-level jet are poised to depart the southern
Plains and track away from the axis of greater moisture and
instability, which should limit severe potential to some degree.
Still, low-level convergence along the cold front should support
thunderstorm development by afternoon peak heating across the TX
coastal plain to the Sabine River Valley. Strong enough flow along
the western periphery of the departing low-level jet, beneath modest
westerlies, will support elongated hodographs and over 30 kts of
effective bulk shear. Given the aforementioned buoyancy, multicells
and perhaps a couple of supercells are possible. Isolated severe
gusts/hail are possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out.
..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains tomorrow
(Friday) night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are
not currently expected.
...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure across much of the Interior West, as well as
the northern and eastern CONUS, will limit thunderstorm potential in
these regions due to static stability. However, the rapid approach
of a mid-level trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis over the
southern Plains tomorrow (Friday). As the surface low materializes
over western OK during the day, modest low-level moisture will
advect northward with the aid of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet.
7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are expected to overspread the
aforementioned low-level warm-air advection, promoting
destabilization Friday night/early Saturday morning atop a stable
boundary layer. This elevated buoyancy, characterized by 500-1000
J/kg thin MUCAPE constrained above 700 mb, will support nocturnal
thunderstorm development over portions of the southern Plains, when
the primary upper support with the approaching mid-level trough
arrives. Given strong vertical wind shear (e.g. elongated
hodographs), a few of the stronger storms may produce hail. However,
given limited elevated MUCAPE, the confidence in the coverage of
more than sparse severe hail is too low for the introduction of
severe probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough over the Eastern CONUS will move offshore
throughout the day, with enhanced zonal mid/upper level flow
persisting in its wake. At the surface, a dry/breezy post-frontal
airmass will remain in place across much of the Southeast.
...Central Florida and far Southern Georgia...
A continuation of dry northerly low-level flow into the region along
with diurnal heating will result in RH values falling into the teens
during the afternoon. Despite somewhat enhanced upper-level flow,
afternoon winds may approach 15-20 mph, at least in localized areas,
resulting in Elevated fire-weather conditions. Fuels will remain
quite receptive to large-fire spread amid a few days of persistent
dry low-level advection. The Elevated area was expanded to the
northwest based on wind/RH combos depicted in the latest
high-resolution guidance and limited recent precipitation occurring
across the region.
..Karstens.. 11/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS
will shift east throughout the day. At the surface, a dry
post-frontal airmass will continue to overspread much of the
Southeast, accompanied by breezy northwest winds.
...Portions of Southeast Georgia and North-Central Florida...
The aforementioned dry/breezy conditions will lead to Elevated
fire-weather concerns for the region, from late morning through late
afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s and lower 60s
F, with dew point temperatures in the low 20s F, resulting in RH
values into the low 20s and upper teens. Meanwhile, sustained winds
of 10-15 mph, gusting to 20-25 mph, will occur amid receptive fuels,
characterized by relatively high ERC values and limited recent
precipitation. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained
for the region, with some expansion into the Florida Panhandle and
southern Georgia based on the latest wind/RH/fuel guidance.
..Karstens.. 11/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. today through tonight.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that an initially significant, and now occluding,
cyclone will gradually weaken across Quebec today through tonight,
as a weaker secondary cyclone also occludes across and
north-northeast of the Canadian Maritimes. In mid-levels, it
appears that large-scale troughing will be reinforced and undergo
amplification while progressing into and across the Atlantic
Seaboard, in response to a pair of initially digging short wave
perturbations across and east of the Mississippi Valley. As this
occurs, a notable associated surface cold front is forecast to
progress away from the Atlantic Seaboard, and through much of the
remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin.
Within split westerlies emanating from the northern and mid-latitude
Pacific, a pair of short wave impulses are forecast to dig inland
across the Cascades and Canadian Rockies, downstream of building
larger-scale mid/upper ridging. However, it appears that generally
stable conditions will be maintained across much of the West, in
addition to most areas east of the Rockies.
...Florida Peninsula...
Downstream of the amplifying large-scale mid-level trough axis,
models continue to indicate that one area of developing large-scale
forcing for ascent may overcome mid-level inhibition and support a
couple of generally weak thunderstorms across the Lower Florida Keys
into southeastern Florida coastal vicinities this morning into
afternoon. In the presence of another developing area of
large-scale ascent, weak destabilization may also support at least
lower threshold probabilities for thunderstorms, ahead of the
southward advancing cold front across interior central into east
central coastal portions of the peninsula this afternoon.
...Lower Great Lakes...
Cold air overspreading the relative warm waters of Lakes Erie and
Ontario may contribute to thermodynamic profiles increasingly
conducive to convection capable of producing occasional lightning,
particularly as temperatures cool below -20 to -25 C in the 700-600
mb layer this afternoon into tonight, based on forecast soundings.
..Kerr.. 11/27/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. today through tonight.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that an initially significant, and now occluding,
cyclone will gradually weaken across Quebec today through tonight,
as a weaker secondary cyclone also occludes across and
north-northeast of the Canadian Maritimes. In mid-levels, it
appears that large-scale troughing will be reinforced and undergo
amplification while progressing into and across the Atlantic
Seaboard, in response to a pair of initially digging short wave
perturbations across and east of the Mississippi Valley. As this
occurs, a notable associated surface cold front is forecast to
progress away from the Atlantic Seaboard, and through much of the
remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin.
Within split westerlies emanating from the northern and mid-latitude
Pacific, a pair of short wave impulses are forecast to dig inland
across the Cascades and Canadian Rockies, downstream of building
larger-scale mid/upper ridging. However, it appears that generally
stable conditions will be maintained across much of the West, in
addition to most areas east of the Rockies.
...Florida Peninsula...
Downstream of the amplifying large-scale mid-level trough axis,
models continue to indicate that one area of developing large-scale
forcing for ascent may overcome mid-level inhibition and support a
couple of generally weak thunderstorms across the Lower Florida Keys
into southeastern Florida coastal vicinities this morning into
afternoon. In the presence of another developing area of
large-scale ascent, weak destabilization may also support at least
lower threshold probabilities for thunderstorms, ahead of the
southward advancing cold front across interior central into east
central coastal portions of the peninsula this afternoon.
...Lower Great Lakes...
Cold air overspreading the relative warm waters of Lakes Erie and
Ontario may contribute to thermodynamic profiles increasingly
conducive to convection capable of producing occasional lightning,
particularly as temperatures cool below -20 to -25 C in the 700-600
mb layer this afternoon into tonight, based on forecast soundings.
..Kerr.. 11/27/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
nation tonight.
...01Z Update...
...Southern Florida/Keys...
Convection in a small cluster initially centered over interior
southern Florida, generally to the northwest of Greater Miami, has
undergone recent weakening. While occasional lightning persists in
stronger cores, guidance suggests that potential for this continuing
inland and near coastal areas will become increasingly negligible
through 02-03Z.
Otherwise, although more uncertain due to model spread, potential
for scattered convection capable of producing lightning might
increase late tonight near the lower Keys, if an increase in
large-scale ascent is able to overcome inhibition associated with
relatively warm layers aloft.
..Kerr.. 11/27/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 281200Z - 041200Z
Deep upper-level troughing will begin to weaken and move out of the
eastern US Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday. A mid-level shortwave
trough will move east-southeast out of the Rockies this weekend and
likely deepen over the Midwest/Great Lakes with another upper-level
shortwave trough likely following it but with a track more over the
Intermountain West. Ridging will establish and modulate in strength
over the northeast Pacific with generally lower heights/upper-level
troughing over much of the CONUS next week.
...Day 3/Friday: Southern Georgia through Central Florida...
Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will continue across portions of
Georgia through central Florida Day 3/Friday. RH will likely be
below critical thresholds for much of this area with winds more of
the limiting factor for critical fire weather conditions. Winds are
likely to be more northeasterly across south Florida and on the
eastern half of the Florida Peninsula, which will likely increase RH
above elevated thresholds in these areas. A 40% probability area was
added to reflect the likely elevated fire weather conditions, and it
may need to be expanded farther north-northwest into the Florida
Panhandle and southern Georgia if winds trend stronger in the
forecast and RH remains low.
...Day 4/Saturday: Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas...
Some dry/breezy conditions are likely in southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front on Day
4/Saturday. However, recent cool weather and precipitation have
mitigated fuel concerns. The marginal fuel receptiveness and
forecast of only locally elevated/elevated winds/RH preclude
introducing probabilities.
..Nauslar.. 11/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast through tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 11/26/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025/
...Synopsis...
A deep cyclone (992 mb) will occlude today over the upper Great
Lakes while a cold front moves eastward/southeastward across the
Appalachians and off the Atlantic coast/into north FL by tonight.
The threat for thunderstorms appears negligible along/ahead of the
cold front from the Carolinas into the Tidewater given only weak
forcing for ascent and poor thermodynamic profiles based on regional
12z soundings. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the
front across north FL/southeast GA greater low-level moisture and
buoyancy compared to areas farther northeast. A separate area of
sea breeze convection/isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon across southeast FL, despite relatively warm temperatures
around 600 mb.
A band of showers/shallow convection along the cold front will
spread eastward today across WV and western PA/NY with gusty winds,
but lightning and convective wind damage appear unlikely.
Overnight, a lake effect convective band is expected across eastern
Lake Erie, where buoyancy depth could become marginally sufficient
for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes, though the
threat will remain on the margins for an outlook area.
Otherwise, a few thunderstorms will linger across deep south TX
through about midday until the cold front moves southward into
Mexico.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday
night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to shift eastward
and weaken under the influence of a deepening shortwave trough over
the Rockies and High Plains Friday. As the trough to the west
deepens, stronger westerly flow will overspread the Plains states
deepening a lee cyclone across portions of eastern CO and western
KS. A strong cold front, attendant to the surface low, will sweep
southeastward, supporting isolated thunderstorms over the southern
Plains and Ozarks into early Saturday.
...Central TX into southeastern OK...
As the surface low over the southern High Plains deepens, southerly
winds will increase supporting low-level moisture advection on the
western flank of the surface high into portions of TX and southern
OK late Friday. With surface temperatures remaining relatively cool
in the wake of the prior frontal passage, most forecast soundings
show weak buoyancy developing above a surface stable layer at the
apex of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As the upper trough
moves overhead and the surface cold front approaches from the
northwest, broad ascent will support isolated thunderstorms from
central and western North TX into central/eastern OK and the western
Ozarks late Friday night into early Saturday morning. While buoyancy
is expected to remain fairly limited (~500 J/kg MUCAPE), strong flow
aloft could support occasional stronger elevated storms with the
potential for small hail. This is most likely farther south across
TX where buoyancy would be stronger, though confidence in a
sustained severe risk is low.
..Lyons.. 11/26/2025
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
An Elevated area was added for portions of southeast Georgia and
north/central Florida as dry/breezy conditions are expected behind a
cold front. Northwest sustained winds of 8-15 mph with gusts of
15-25 mph and minimum RH of 15-30% are expected across these areas
tomorrow. Some areas will have elevated fire weather conditions
beginning mid/late morning and lasting through the afternoon.
Confidence is high for RH to be low enough, but confidence is lower
regarding the coverage of sustained 10-15 mph winds. Additionally,
isolated portions of the Elevated area received rain today with
isolated showers and thunderstorms likely to continue moving
east-southeast into the evening across portions of the Elevated
area. This may help mitigate fuel concerns, but several RAWS in/near
the Elevated area are forecast to have near daily record high ERC
values tomorrow. Stronger winds are likely in the lee of the
southern Appalachians and in the vicinity of the Piedmont, but
higher RH and colder temperatures will help mitigate and thus
preclude a risk area.
..Nauslar.. 11/26/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire concerns will likely remain limited for Thursday. Widespread
rain and snowfall across the Midwest and the southern CONUS along
with weak winds across the West will mitigate fire weather concerns
for large portions of the country. Dry conditions are expected
across southern GA into the FL Peninsula in the wake of a cold
frontal passage late Wednesday into early Thursday. Drier solutions
hint that RH reductions into the 25-35% range are possible along
with 10-15 mph winds. Elevated fire weather conditions appear
probable, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may improve fuel
moisture across a region with already modest ERC values (between the
50-70th percentiles). As such, highlights are withheld for this
outlook, though fuel trends will be monitored. Breezy offshore winds
along the southern CA coast early Thursday are expected to abate
through the day as the pressure gradient weakens, but a few hours of
localized elevated conditions appear possible between 12-18 UTC.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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MD 2234 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN WI INTO WESTERN UPPER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 2234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Areas affected...Parts of northern WI into western Upper MI
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 261042Z - 261615Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow will gradually spread eastward
through the morning. Blizzard conditions are possible.
DISCUSSION...Moderate to locally heavy snow is ongoing at 10 UTC
across parts of northern WI into far western Upper MI, to the
west/northwest of a 993 mb surface low near the northeast
WI/southern Upper MI border. This surface low and the accompanying
midlevel low/trough are both forecast to strengthen as they move
eastward today. As this occurs, continued strong ascent and
low/midlevel cooling will allow for moderate to locally heavy snow
to gradually spread eastward across parts of western Upper MI
through the morning.
Snow rates of near/above 1 inch per hour will be possible, with some
potential enhancement from Lake Superior as cooler temperatures
aloft overspread the region. In addition, strong northerly low-level
flow (with 40-50 kt currently just above the surface from the KDLH
VWP) will also spread eastward with time. This strong flow combined
with increasing low-level cold advection will support strong gusts
to near/above 40 mph, resulting in reduced visibility within the
heavier snow bands and at least localized blizzard conditions.
..Dean.. 11/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...
LAT...LON 46169190 46679176 47149067 46919019 47048934 47528838
47448750 47158788 46908810 45878860 45948912 46169103
46169190
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