Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough continues to deepen across much of the eastern U.S. today, while a cold front pushes southward across south TX and the southeast coastal states. This process will stabilize the air mass across the nation, precluding organized severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring over southeast GA/northern FL, and should persist for a few more hours as they spread southward into the FL Peninsula. Weak forcing and limited vertical shear suggests severe storms are unlikely. Other scattered thunderstorms have been occurring this morning over Deep South TX in vicinity of the front. This activity will also build southward and out of the CONUS during the day with little risk of severe activity. ..Hart/Dean.. 11/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms remain possible from southern Alabama into western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle through late evening, and over Deep South Texas. ...AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... A marginally unstable air mass remains ahead of a cold front this evening, extending from northwest GA across central AL. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near/ahead of the front, with minimal indications of severe potential currently. However, PWAT values up to 1.50" persist, with minimal convective inhibition especially over southern areas. Southwest 850 mb winds near 30 kt is also supporting areas of 100-150 m2/s2 effective SRH, which could aid rotation in the stronger storms. As such, will maintain the Marginal Risk, with a low-end risk of a brief tornado or locally damaging gusts over the next several hours. ...Deep South TX... Weak easterly low-level flow persists this evening south of a developing cold front, with 70s F dewpoints onshore. The 00Z CRP sounding show minimal capping, though winds are weak below 700 mb. Farther south, the 00Z BRO soundings still indicates substantial capping. Latest radar already indicates convective showers may be developing inland. Conditionally, the environment supports hail over 1.00" diameter, with MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg and deep-layer effective shear around 50 kt. The primary uncertainty is due to weak lift. However, the cold front will eventually push south into the moist and unstable air mass later tonight, and this may result in sufficient lift for a few strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms with localized hail threat. As such, 5% hail probabilities have been added. ..Jewell.. 11/26/2025 Read more

MD 2233 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2233 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Areas affected...Central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 252332Z - 260530Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall with rates upwards of 1-2 inches/hour will spread east/northeast across central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin through the evening hours. Additionally, strong winds will continue to support areas of blizzard conditions, especially in open country and under heavier snow bands. DISCUSSION...Latest radar mosaics and surface observations show an intense cyclone over the Twin Cities area. Aloft, ascent associated with a narrow, but strong, zone of warm advection between 850-700 mb is overlapping with lift within the left-exit region of a 500 mb jet, which is supporting a broad swath of moderate to heavy snowfall rates from the Sisseton hills in northeast SD into west-central MN. These ascent mechanisms will continue to be favorably phased over the next several hours, and will support 1-2 inch/hour snowfall rates across central MN to northern WI and parts of the Upper Peninsula as the cyclone and surface freezing line shift east. Given the focused corridor of mesoscale ascent, snow banding will be possible and may support locally higher snowfall rates in excess of 2 inches/hour. In addition to the potential for heavy snowfall rates, 25-35 mph surface winds on the backside of the surface low are supporting areas of blizzard conditions with visibility below 1/4 mile recently noted on several web cams across western MN. Although temperatures will remain relatively warm (30-32 F), the combination of strong winds and moderate/heavy snowfall rates will continue to promote areas of blizzard conditions, especially across open country and under any heavier snow bands that develop. ..Moore.. 11/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... LAT...LON 45009527 45909028 46048958 46278915 46658904 46938909 47138947 47339003 47489078 47479145 47369210 47139315 46369630 46169666 45909675 45029659 44919633 44949584 45009527 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Nov 25 22:33:09 UTC 2025.

WW 0641 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 641 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MOB TO 50 SSE MEI TO 10 SSE TCL TO 25 WNW BHM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2232 ..WENDT..11/25/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 641 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-013-017-021-025-027-035-037-041-047-051-065-073-081- 085-087-091-099-101-105-111-117-121-123-129-131-252240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BUTLER CHAMBERS CHILTON CLARKE CLAY CONECUH COOSA CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE HALE JEFFERSON LEE LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY RANDOLPH SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 641 TORNADO AL MS 251805Z - 260000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 641 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and southern Alabama Extreme southeast Mississippi * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 600 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A few supercells will be possible through this afternoon/evening from extreme southeast Mississippi northeastward into central Alabama. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage with thunderstorms gusts to 60 mph, and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter are the main threats. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles east northeast of Tuscaloosa AL to 50 miles west southwest of Evergreen AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z Deep upper-level troughing is expected over the eastern US with well below normal temperatures amid a dry post-frontal airmass through the end of the week and into Day 5/Saturday. An upper-level short wave trough is likely to track from the northern Rockies into the central US before strengthening over the Midwest/Great Lakes this weekend. Deeper upper-level troughing is likely to develop over the West this weekend and early next week, but forecast uncertainty remains regarding the location and magnitude of this troughing. ...Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday: Portions of the Southeast... Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are likely along/east of the Piedmont and into southern Georgia and north Florida Day 3/Thursday. RH is expected to dip below elevated/critical criteria across these areas with 8-15 mph northwest-northerly winds overlapping. RH will likely be lower on Day 4/Friday in portions of southern/central Georgia into central/north Florida and possibly portions of South Carolina. Mitigating factors will be cooler temperatures, especially at higher elevations and farther north, and the potential for rainfall today/tomorrow. Locally elevated conditions are likely with portions of southern Georgia and north Florida currently favored, but given the forecast uncertainty, probabilities of critical fire weather conditions were not introduced. ...Day 5/Saturday: Southwest Texas... Dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of southwest Texas Day 5/Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. However, given the forecast uncertainty with track of the upper-level shortwave trough, frontal timing, and the overlap of critical winds/RH coincident with receptive fuels, probabilities were not introduced. ..Nauslar.. 11/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z Deep upper-level troughing is expected over the eastern US with well below normal temperatures amid a dry post-frontal airmass through the end of the week and into Day 5/Saturday. An upper-level short wave trough is likely to track from the northern Rockies into the central US before strengthening over the Midwest/Great Lakes this weekend. Deeper upper-level troughing is likely to develop over the West this weekend and early next week, but forecast uncertainty remains regarding the location and magnitude of this troughing. ...Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday: Portions of the Southeast... Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are likely along/east of the Piedmont and into southern Georgia and north Florida Day 3/Thursday. RH is expected to dip below elevated/critical criteria across these areas with 8-15 mph northwest-northerly winds overlapping. RH will likely be lower on Day 4/Friday in portions of southern/central Georgia into central/north Florida and possibly portions of South Carolina. Mitigating factors will be cooler temperatures, especially at higher elevations and farther north, and the potential for rainfall today/tomorrow. Locally elevated conditions are likely with portions of southern Georgia and north Florida currently favored, but given the forecast uncertainty, probabilities of critical fire weather conditions were not introduced. ...Day 5/Saturday: Southwest Texas... Dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of southwest Texas Day 5/Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. However, given the forecast uncertainty with track of the upper-level shortwave trough, frontal timing, and the overlap of critical winds/RH coincident with receptive fuels, probabilities were not introduced. ..Nauslar.. 11/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2230 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2230 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...southeast North Dakota...west-central Minnesota Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 251649Z - 252145Z SUMMARY...Potential for moderate to heavy (around 1 inch per hour rates) snowfall is expected to increase through the afternoon as the upper trough intensifies and the surface low deepens in the Upper Midwest. DISCUSSION...An amplifying trough is evident on water vapor imagery in the northern Plains. As this features continues into the Upper Midwest, a surface low now analyzed in eastern South Dakota should deepen and generally shift eastward. Ascent from low to mid levels will promote a region of heavier precipitation. Recent observations from northeast South Dakota showed heavy snow occurring. Temperatures farther east are currently above freezing, but between low-level cold air advection and diabatic cooling within the heavier precipitation bands, moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall rates (around 1 inch per hour) are probable into the mid/late afternoon. ..Wendt.. 11/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45219667 45239786 45379822 45479836 45579847 46039827 46349762 46619644 46459568 46279519 45809528 45609558 45439591 45219667 Read more

WW 0641 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 641 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..11/25/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 641 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-013-021-023-025-027-035-037-041-047-051-063-065-073- 085-091-099-101-105-117-119-121-123-125-129-131-252040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BUTLER CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY CONECUH COOSA CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE GREENE HALE JEFFERSON LOWNDES MARENGO MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX MSC041-111-153-252040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREENE PERRY WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on Thursday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the northeastern US and southern Canada will further amplify Thursday as ridging builds to the west ahead of a weaker shortwave trough over the Pacific. Broad and strong cyclonic flow aloft will overspread the eastern half of the US extending northwestward over the northern Rockies. At the surface, a strong low will occlude over eastern Canada while a cold front moves offshore over the east coast. In the wake of the front, high pressure will intensify as it moves southward into the central US. With surface high pressure and offshore flow expected in the wake of the departing cold front, thunderstorm potential over the US will be limited to far southern FL. Here, isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. However, weak lapse rates and buoyancy should limit the severe threat. Occasional lightning is also possible over portions the eastern Great Lakes owing to warm water temps and cold air advection behind the upper low Thursday and Thursday evening. But, with cold thermodynamic profiles only modest supportive of mixed-phase precipitation, any lightning flashes should be sporadic and tied to deeper and more persistent lake-effect bands. ..Lyons.. 11/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on Thursday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the northeastern US and southern Canada will further amplify Thursday as ridging builds to the west ahead of a weaker shortwave trough over the Pacific. Broad and strong cyclonic flow aloft will overspread the eastern half of the US extending northwestward over the northern Rockies. At the surface, a strong low will occlude over eastern Canada while a cold front moves offshore over the east coast. In the wake of the front, high pressure will intensify as it moves southward into the central US. With surface high pressure and offshore flow expected in the wake of the departing cold front, thunderstorm potential over the US will be limited to far southern FL. Here, isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. However, weak lapse rates and buoyancy should limit the severe threat. Occasional lightning is also possible over portions the eastern Great Lakes owing to warm water temps and cold air advection behind the upper low Thursday and Thursday evening. But, with cold thermodynamic profiles only modest supportive of mixed-phase precipitation, any lightning flashes should be sporadic and tied to deeper and more persistent lake-effect bands. ..Lyons.. 11/25/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...20z Update.. Only minor adjustments were made to extend the Slight Risk further southeast across southern Alabama with this update in alignment with recent trends. Occasional rotating cells are noted on radar across central/southern Alabama over the last couple of hours. Daytime heating will continue across this region with occasional stronger cell development expected through the afternoon. VAD profiles from BMX, MXX continue to show favorable low-level curvature of hodographs, indicative of SRH rich environments supporting rotating cells. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage, and isolated large hail remain possible. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/ ...MS/AL/GA through late evening... A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the upper MS Valley. An associated/weak surface cold front will move southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from east central MS into central AL. Low-level recovery into northeast AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which is uncertain. Along and south of this boundary, that is being loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for a couple of supercells. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP) through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this evening. A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail will be possible this afternoon into this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...20z Update.. Only minor adjustments were made to extend the Slight Risk further southeast across southern Alabama with this update in alignment with recent trends. Occasional rotating cells are noted on radar across central/southern Alabama over the last couple of hours. Daytime heating will continue across this region with occasional stronger cell development expected through the afternoon. VAD profiles from BMX, MXX continue to show favorable low-level curvature of hodographs, indicative of SRH rich environments supporting rotating cells. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage, and isolated large hail remain possible. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/ ...MS/AL/GA through late evening... A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the upper MS Valley. An associated/weak surface cold front will move southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from east central MS into central AL. Low-level recovery into northeast AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which is uncertain. Along and south of this boundary, that is being loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for a couple of supercells. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP) through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this evening. A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail will be possible this afternoon into this evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 11/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected for Wednesday. A strong cyclone that is currently developing over the northern High Plains is expected to move into the Great Lakes region by late Wednesday. This will support a broad swath of 15-25 mph across the Midwest and OH Valley, but recent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire concerns. Across southern California, a weak to moderate offshore pressure gradient is expected to gradually become established through Wednesday into early Thursday. While some areas may see winds increase to 15-20 mph, widespread recent rainfall has largely mitigated fuel concerns at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 11/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected for Wednesday. A strong cyclone that is currently developing over the northern High Plains is expected to move into the Great Lakes region by late Wednesday. This will support a broad swath of 15-25 mph across the Midwest and OH Valley, but recent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire concerns. Across southern California, a weak to moderate offshore pressure gradient is expected to gradually become established through Wednesday into early Thursday. While some areas may see winds increase to 15-20 mph, widespread recent rainfall has largely mitigated fuel concerns at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...Southeast... A shortwave trough over the southeastern US will move eastward quickly as a second, more intense perturbation, deepens and expands from the southern Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley. As the secondary shortwave intensifies, broad and strong southwesterly flow aloft will envelop much of the eastern US, as ridging builds over the West. While the upper-level system matures, a surface low should also deepen, moving from the western Great Lakes into southern Canada by 00z Thursday. A cold front associated with the low will sweep east/southeastward across the Southeast before moving offshore early Thursday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing ahead of the front early Wednesday associated with the prior day's convective cycle. The impact of these storms on the increasingly narrow warm sector is uncertain, but may tend to limit destabilization in their wake. Some heating of a remnant moist (60s F dewpoints) air mass could support weak buoyancy and redevelopment of a few thunderstorms in the afternoon, mostly likely from southern GA and southwestern SC into northern FL. However, weak buoyancy and poor mid-level lapse rates south of the primary ascent tied to the upper trough should limit the severe threat. The cold front will then move offshore Wednesday evening into early Thursday, ushering in cooler and drier conditions. ...Eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast/mid Atlantic Coasts... Closer to the cold core of the upper trough, isolated low-topped convection is possible along the cold front Wednesday afternoon. However, surface moisture and resulting buoyancy will be quite limited. This suggests only sporadic potential for lightning. Still, strong flow aloft (1-3km AGL 40-50 kt) could support a stray convectively augmented wind gust near the coast and in the lee of lakes Erie/Ontario, where weak elevated buoyancy will be present. ..Lyons.. 11/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 11/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country despite very strong winds across much of the central Plains. 06 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across the northern High Plains associated with a developing cyclone. This low will undergo rapid intensification over the next 24 hours as it shifts east towards the Midwest. Strong, 20-30 mph northwesterly winds will overspread much of the central and southern Plains through late afternoon as an attendant cold front pushes southeast. Despite the strong winds, an influx of cold air will limit RH reductions to 35-50% over the windiest areas. This, coupled with unreceptive fuels after recent rainfall, will limit fire weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...MS/AL/GA through late evening... A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the upper MS Valley. An associated/weak surface cold front will move southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from east central MS into central AL. Low-level recovery into northeast AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which is uncertain. Along and south of this boundary, that is being loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for a couple of supercells. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP) through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this evening. A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail will be possible this afternoon into this evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 11/25/2025 Read more

WW 0640 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 640 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ESF TO 70 NE HEZ TO 40 SE GWO. ..DEAN..11/25/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 640 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC023-029-049-061-065-069-075-077-079-085-089-099-101-121-123- 127-129-251040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE COPIAH HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN MADISON NESHOBA NEWTON RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more