WW 640 TORNADO LA MS 250440Z - 251200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 640
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far Northeastern Louisiana
Western/Central Mississippi
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1040 PM
until 600 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across
northern LA towards western/southwestern MS. A strongly sheared and
modestly buoyant environment precedes this line from far
northeastern LA into western and central MS. These environmental
conditions support a risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts within
any stronger storms embedded within the broader convective line. A
few thunderstorms could also develop ahead of the line, with the
threat for a brief tornado and/or strong gusts accompanying these
storms as well.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Natchez MS to
100 miles east northeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 639...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Mosier
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm potential should be limited during the day on D4/Friday
with high pressure and a dry, continental polar airmass across much
of the country. By Friday night, return flow across Texas will
strengthen as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet develops. This may
result in some weak elevated thunderstorms late Friday night and
early Saturday.
...D5/Sat to D8/Tue...
Severe thunderstorms may be possible from the southern Plains to the
Gulf Coast this weekend and into early next week. Mid to upper 60s
dewpoints are expected either onshore or close to onshore by this
weekend. However, evolution of the mid-level pattern remains quite
uncertain. This mid-level pattern will largely dictate the timing
and inland penetration of richer low-level moisture and instability.
Therefore, broad severe weather potential exists Saturday to
Tuesday, but more specific timing or intensity information is not
available at his time due to the large uncertainties.
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.
...Discussion...
A large, expansive mid-level ridge will be present across the
eastern CONUS on Thursday. Offshore flow will be present across the
entire eastern half of the CONUS as high pressure builds into the
Plains. This high pressure will expand a dry, continental polar
airmass which should keep any thunderstorm chances limited.
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front across
Florida, but weak instability and modest lapse rates should keep any
severe storm threat limited.
Significant temperature differences between the Great Lakes and the
cold airmass aloft should result in some instability in the Great
Lakes. Deeper convection that can develop over the lakes with some
graupel could result in a few lightning flashes given an EL around
-20C. However, given the mostly below freezing temperature profile,
the likelihood of mixed-phase elements remains uncertain and a
general thunderstorm line has not been included at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/25/2025
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
No fire weather concerns are expected for Wednesday. A strong
cyclone that is currently developing over the northern High Plains
is expected to move into the Great Lakes region by late Wednesday.
This will support a broad swath of 15-25 mph across the Midwest and
OH Valley, but recent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire
concerns. Across southern California, a weak to moderate offshore
pressure gradient is expected to gradually become established
through Wednesday into early Thursday. While some areas may see
winds increase to 15-20 mph, widespread recent rainfall has largely
mitigated fuel concerns at this time.
..Moore.. 11/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the
country despite very strong winds across much of the central Plains.
06 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across the
northern High Plains associated with a developing cyclone. This low
will undergo rapid intensification over the next 24 hours as it
shifts east towards the Midwest. Strong, 20-30 mph northwesterly
winds will overspread much of the central and southern Plains
through late afternoon as an attendant cold front pushes southeast.
Despite the strong winds, an influx of cold air will limit RH
reductions to 35-50% over the windiest areas. This, coupled with
unreceptive fuels after recent rainfall, will limit fire weather
potential.
..Moore.. 11/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes on
Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet streak will move along the
southern extent of this trough from the Ohio Valley to the
Northeast. A surface low will move from Lake Superior to western
Quebec during the forecast period. An occluded front will extend
east from this surface low to a cold front which will start the day
near the Appalachians and move mostly into the western Atlantic by
00Z.
Some surface heating is forecast ahead of the cold front from
southeast Georgia to the Carolinas Wednesday morning and early
afternoon. While this will lead to some weak destabilization,
relatively warm 850-700mb temperatures should limit the overall
threat despite strong shear and long hodographs across the region.
..Bentley.. 11/25/2025
Read more
WW 0639 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 639
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS
TO 45 SSE LFK TO 30 NW POE TO 20 ESE IER TO 40 N ESF.
..DEAN..11/25/25
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 639
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-009-011-039-059-069-079-115-250740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
EVANGELINE LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES
RAPIDES VERNON
TXC199-241-245-351-361-457-250740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON
NEWTON ORANGE TYLER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 639 TORNADO LA TX CW 250035Z - 250700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 639
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
635 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and Central Louisiana
East-central and Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 635 PM
until 100 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms currently extends from northwest
LA through southeast TX to the Middle TX Coastal Plain. Airmass
ahead of these storms remains moist and unstable, with some increase
in southerly low-level winds expected over the next few hours.
Resulting environmental conditions will support a continued risk for
supercells embedded within the line, as well as the potential for a
few discrete cells ahead of the line. There is enough low-level
shear present for a tornado risk to accompany these supercells, with
damaging gusts possible within the line as well.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Houston TX to 50
miles east northeast of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 638...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Mosier
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are likely across parts of the
Southeast/Deep South this morning into the early evening hours. A
couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and
Alabama.
...Synopsis...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weakening upper wave over
east TX/LA translating to the east/northeast with a more compact,
amplifying upper disturbance moving into the northern High Plains.
Further de-amplification of the southern wave is anticipated over
the next 24 hours as it lifts into the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. As
this occurs, a weak surface low (analyzed over the mid-MS Valley as
of 05 UTC) will gradually lift to the northeast with a trailing cold
front extending from the TN Valley to the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm
development is anticipated by mid-afternoon along this boundary
across portions of eastern MS, AL, and into the southern
Appalachians. While buoyancy will remain somewhat modest, strong
wind shear over the region will support the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms.
...Southeast...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing by 12 UTC across portions of
central MS and northwest AL as remnants from overnight convection
begin to weaken in tandem with the early-morning maximum in
inhibition. Some re-intensification of this activity is possible by
late morning across northeast MS/northern AL as diurnal heating
increases, but confidence in the coverage/intensity is uncertain.
30-40 knot south/southwesterly flow in the 1-2 km layer will
continue to advect seasonally warm/moist air northward into central
and northeast AL by mid-afternoon. This will allow for adequate
destabilization within the warm sector for thunderstorm development
as a weak cold front begins to advance from the west. The
combination of strong, along-boundary deep-layer wind shear and weak
forcing for ascent will favor a broken line of cells/clusters by
mid-afternoon. The strong low-level winds will support a damaging
wind threat with any strong thunderstorm, and favorable low-level
helicity (especially late morning through early afternoon) will
support a tornado threat with the more intense/isolated supercells.
Through late afternoon, low-level winds veering to the southwest may
modulate the tornado threat to some degree, but damaging winds and
isolated large hail will remain possible. In general, the overall
ensemble signal for intense convection is comparatively weaker
compared to previous days, suggesting that the severe threat may be
somewhat more limited. Nonetheless, Slight-risk probabilities were
maintained for portions of southeast MS through east-central AL
where strong/severe storms appear most likely.
..Moore/Jewell.. 11/25/2025
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0852 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 241700Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous
discussion for more details.
..Nauslar.. 11/24/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today.
Widespread rainfall across the southern CONUS will limited fuel
status across a broad swath of the country where fuels had been
previously dry in recent days. Further north, an intensifying
cyclone over the northern High Plains will likely support strong
westerly downslope winds across portions of MT and WY. However, an
influx of cold air along with considerable cloud cover will limit RH
reductions. Dry conditions are expected to persist across the
Southeast, but weak winds should mitigate widespread fire concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI....
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into
the overnight hours from east Texas into central/southern
Mississippi.
...TX/LA/MS...
A large upper trough is moving eastward across the southern Plains
this morning, with an associated 60-70 knot mid level jet expected
to track into AR by evening. At the surface, a warm front currently
extends from southeast TX to just off the LA coast. This boundary
will lift northward through the day, with a moist and moderately
unstable air mass spreading inland. A combination of diurnal
destabilization and the approaching upper trough will lead to
convective intensification by early afternoon over east TX. These
initial storms will pose a risk of large hail and perhaps some gusty
winds and a tornado or two.
As the activity spreads eastward after dark, rather strong low-level
shear profiles in vicinity of the warm front will maintain a risk of
severe storms through much of the night across central LA and
southern MS. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible.
..Hart/Broyles.. 11/24/2025
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across the Deep South into the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
...Synopsis...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough across the Tennessee Valley will
dampen through the period as it advances into the western Atlantic
after 00Z. A trough across the northern Plains will amplify through
the period as it advances into the Upper Midwest and develops a
closed upper low. A surface low will develop near Wisconsin/Lake
Michigan and deepen through the day and into Tuesday night. As it
deepens, a surface cold front will sharpen and accelerate east from
the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley.
...Deep South...
A strong low-level jet will extend from northern MS/AL to southern
Ohio Tuesday morning and will quickly move northeast through the
day. This will result in weaker, more veered flow across the warm
sector during the afternoon. Rising heights in the wake of the
morning mid-level shortwave trough and weak convergence along the
front may mitigate severe storm potential during much of the day,
despite weak to moderate instability and moderate shear across much
of the uncapped warm sector. However, scattered storms, some which
could be strong, are expected along and ahead of the frontal zone
during the afternoon and early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be
the primary threat, but some isolated large hail may also occur
across portions of MS/AL where greater instability is forecast.
Overall, stronger forcing amid falling heights aloft and greater
convergence along the cold front, is anticipated Tuesday night.
However, weaker instability should mitigate the overall severe
weather threat. A few stronger storms are possible after 06Z across
the FL Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia where
upper 60s dewpoints off the Gulf should be sufficient for moderate
instability, even during the early morning hours. However, even if a
few supercells can form during this period, severe potential may be
somewhat limited given only modest mid-level lapse rates and weak
low-level flow.
..Bentley.. 11/24/2025
Read more
MD 2221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Areas affected...West-central and Southwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 240643Z - 240915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat may continue into the
overnight period across parts of west-central and southwest Texas.
Weather watch issuance will be possible.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows several small
thunderstorm clusters extending from north-central Texas
southwestward toward the Big Bend. The strongest thunderstorms are
located along a surface trough in southwest Texas along an axis of
moisture and instability. Within this airmass, the RAP shows MLCAPE
in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Storm coverage is expected to
continue as low-level flow and large-scale ascent both gradually
increase. The latest WSR-88D VWP at San Angelo has 0-6 km shear near
55 knots with some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This
environment may support rotation within the strongest storms, and
isolated supercells with large hail will be possible. RAP forecast
soundings at San Angelo have poor mid-level lapse rates suggesting
any hail threat should be marginal overnight.
..Broyles/Hart.. 11/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 32100067 31330170 30840225 30410219 30320181 30310060
30579960 30939896 31539840 31919822 32249828 32409848
32559912 32499978 32100067
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather potential will continue to be limited for Tuesday
despite widespread strong winds across the Plains. A surface cyclone
is forecast to develop today across the northern High Plains
followed by a period of steady intensification through Tuesday
evening as it shifts into the upper MS Valley/Midwest. Strong
northwesterly winds are expected to spread across much of the
central Plains behind an attendant cold front. Latest forecast
guidance suggests widespread winds of 15-25 mph (gusting to 35 mph)
are likely; however, an influx of continental air should modulate RH
reductions for most locations. Furthermore, the spatial extent of
dry fuels across NE into KS (where winds should be strongest)
appears limited due to rainfall over the past 72 hours.
..Moore.. 11/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today.
Widespread rainfall across the southern CONUS will limited fuel
status across a broad swath of the country where fuels had been
previously dry in recent days. Further north, an intensifying
cyclone over the northern High Plains will likely support strong
westerly downslope winds across portions of MT and WY. However, an
influx of cold air along with considerable cloud cover will limit RH
reductions. Dry conditions are expected to persist across the
Southeast, but weak winds should mitigate widespread fire concerns.
..Moore.. 11/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTENDING ACROSS LOUISIANA TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into
the overnight hours over much of eastern Texas, with more isolated
activity into Mississippi. A few brief tornadoes may occur from
eastern Texas into Louisiana, along with areas of damaging gusts and
sporadic large hail.
...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt upper trough will move from the central and southern
Plains today toward the MS Valley overnight, losing amplitude with
time. Upper ridging will occur over the East during this time as an
upper trough exits the Northeast.
At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Mid Atlantic
during the day, with southerly winds from the western Gulf of
America into TX. A plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will extend
as far as North TX by 00Z as a cold front approaches the I-35
corridor. A warm front will extend roughly from the Red River into
southern AR at that time, with a continued northward advection of
moisture overnight across MS.
...Eastern TX toward the ArkLaMiss...
Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing from
North TX into eastern OK and western AR through midday, with
southerly 40 kt winds at 850 mb aiding moisture transport and lift
north of the warm front. Given cool profiles aloft and ample
deep-layer effective shear, some of this activity could produce hail
at times.
To the south, a weak cold front will progress across TX, as boundary
layer dewpoints increase. A capping inversion will exist near 700 mb
initially, but by early afternoon, the deepening moist layer as well
as cooling aloft will reduce inhibition near the front, and, by late
afternoon, even ahead of the cold front within the moist axis.
Scattered storms are likely to form along the trailing outflow/cold
front, and perhaps just east of the cold front primarily after 21Z.
Sufficient cross-boundary winds aloft as well as veering winds with
height will support scattered supercells. Some of these cells may
produce a tornado prior to eventual merging of storms along the
front. The most intense cells may also produce large hail, as
mid/upper lapse rates will become steep.
At least an isolated severe threat may persist as far east as MS
overnight, as the warm front continues to move north, with veering
wind profiles with height and generally moist conditions supporting
a conditional tornado risk. However, the upper trough will continue
to weaken and lift north, reducing confidence in storm coverage.
..Jewell/Moore.. 11/24/2025
Read more
MD 2220 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637... FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 2220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0835 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Areas affected...Northwest Texas to the Edwards Plateau
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637...
Valid 240235Z - 240430Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637
continues.
SUMMARY...Sporadic severe hail and wind remains possible across
portions of northwest Texas southward into parts of the Edwards
Plateau through the late evening hours.
DISCUSSION...A pair of strong thunderstorms continues to progress
northeastward along and south of the I-20 corridor in west-central
Texas. These cells have a history of producing sub-severe hail, but
have shown some degree of intensification in lightning trends and
cloud-top temperatures over the past 30-45 minutes. Based on recent
surface obs and analyses, these cells are likely becoming elevated
as they move into a more cool/stable low-level environment. The
downstream 00 UTC FWD sounding shows adequate MUCAPE and effective
bulk shear to maintain strong, to potentially severe, convection. As
such, the relatively greatest near-term severe threat will reside
downstream of the ongoing cells where sporadic instances of severe
hail, and perhaps damaging winds, will be possible.
Back to the south/southwest, isolated convective cells have
struggled to intensify, likely owing to lingering capping within the
warm sector as sampled by the 00 UTC DRT sounding. Some
lifting/erosion of this warm layer is expected as lift associated
with the right-entrance region of an upper-level jet overspreads the
Edwards Plateau later tonight. Recent CAM guidance suggests that a
second round of thunderstorms is possible between 03-07 UTC, though
it remains unclear how intense/widespread this convection will be
given that 00 UTC HRRR/RRFS solutions have not accurately captured
the warmth/strength of the capping layer. Nonetheless, given
adequate deep-layer shear an isolated severe threat may still
materialize later tonight.
For both regions, the overall severe threat is expected to remain
sufficiently isolated to preclude downstream watch issuance of WW
637.
..Moore.. 11/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31010266 31610134 31790097 32090067 32900012 33359981
33609951 33669909 33629887 33429872 32879852 32439859
32139875 30880006 30560057 30400095 30260163 30220215
30220246 30290278 30390295 30630304 30850296 31010266
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W FST TO
40 SE MAF TO 45 E BGS TO 75 ESE LBB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2220
..MOORE..11/24/25
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC081-095-105-151-207-235-253-353-371-383-399-413-431-435-441-
443-451-461-240440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COKE CONCHO CROCKETT
FISHER HASKELL IRION
JONES NOLAN PECOS
REAGAN RUNNELS SCHLEICHER
STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR
TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more