WW 637 SEVERE TSTM TX 232015Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 637
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
215 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
West Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until
1000 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next few
hours from the Permian Basin into the Pecos Valley. Strong vertical
shear overlapping modest buoyancy is expected to support initial
supercells, with large hail as the primary risk. A few strong gusts
and a brief tornado are possible as well. A trend towards a more
linear mode is anticipated with time, but the threat for isolated
hail and damaging gusts will likely persist through the evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northeast
of Big Spring TX to 75 miles east southeast of Fort Stockton TX. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Mosier
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of producing hail and locally strong
gusts remains possible tonight over parts of west to west-central
Texas.
...Discussion...
Gradual cooling aloft will occur tonight as the upper trough moves
into the central and southern Plains, with 50-60 kt midlevel
southwesterlies maintaining deep-layer shear. At the surface, an
instability axis currently exists over southwest TX, where
temperatures are in the 60s with low 60s F dewpoints. While the 00Z
DRT sounding was capped, the MAF soundings shows significantly
cooler 700 mb temperatures. A few storms are ongoing over the South
Plains and into the Pecos Valley, with new echoes developing south
of FST. Given southeasterly 925 mb winds and continued cooling
aloft, additional development and possibly strengthening is expected
overnight.
Long hodographs will favor cells producing hail, and a few strong
wind gusts may also occur if bowing structures can develop. Overall,
instability will be mainly elevated, except over far southern areas.
..Jewell.. 11/24/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of producing hail and locally strong
gusts remains possible tonight over parts of west to west-central
Texas.
...Discussion...
Gradual cooling aloft will occur tonight as the upper trough moves
into the central and southern Plains, with 50-60 kt midlevel
southwesterlies maintaining deep-layer shear. At the surface, an
instability axis currently exists over southwest TX, where
temperatures are in the 60s with low 60s F dewpoints. While the 00Z
DRT sounding was capped, the MAF soundings shows significantly
cooler 700 mb temperatures. A few storms are ongoing over the South
Plains and into the Pecos Valley, with new echoes developing south
of FST. Given southeasterly 925 mb winds and continued cooling
aloft, additional development and possibly strengthening is expected
overnight.
Long hodographs will favor cells producing hail, and a few strong
wind gusts may also occur if bowing structures can develop. Overall,
instability will be mainly elevated, except over far southern areas.
..Jewell.. 11/24/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 231700Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook as no broad fire
weather concerns are expected today across the CONUS. Please see
previous discussion below.
..Williams.. 11/23/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025/
...Synopsis...
There are no fire-weather concerns forecast for Sunday. A lack of
dry and windy conditions coupled with cooler temperatures and recent
wetting rainfall will mitigate any threat for wildfire ignition and
spread.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX....
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas.
...West TX...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over AZ,
with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms preceding it
across central/eastern NM. This low is forecast to continue
northeastward throughout the day as a belt of strong mid-level flow
pivots through its southern and eastern periphery across the
southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains. Low-level
moisture will continue to advect northwestward ahead of this low and
associated jet streak and model consensus brings upper 50s dewpoints
into the Permian Basin by this evening. This should result in a
relatively confined region of surface-based buoyancy across the
Permian Basin, which will combined with large-scale ascent and
strong shear to support supercells. Primary threat will be large
hail, although the anticipated development of surface-based buoyancy
does indicate a low-probability threat for strong winds and/or a
tornado.
Low-level stability will increase quickly with eastward extent, as a
result of both nocturnal cooling and generally cooler surface
temperatures throughout the day. Even so, enough elevated buoyancy
is anticipated for continued strong to occasionally severe storms
throughout much of the evening and overnight, particularly in the
03Z-06Z time frame across southwest TX. Hail is the primary risk
with these storms.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 11/23/2025
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 231300Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX....
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas.
...West TX...
A large upper low currently over AZ will track northeastward into
NM, with a 70+ knot mid-level speed max approaching west TX by this
afternoon. Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level winds will
help transport 50s dewpoints into much of west TX ahead of a diffuse
dryline. Most CAM solutions suggest that scattered thunderstorms
will form along this dryline and track northeastward for a few
hours. Given the strength of deep-layer shear, supercell structures
will be likely with a risk of a large hail and perhaps a tornado.
Storms should weaken by late evening as they move into a
progressively less unstable air mass and diurnal cooling ensues.
..Hart/Broyles.. 11/23/2025
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