SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Nov 23 16:33:02 UTC 2025
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Nov 23 16:33:02 UTC 2025.
SPC Nov 23, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas. ...West TX... Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over AZ, with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms preceding it across central/eastern NM. This low is forecast to continue northeastward throughout the day as a belt of strong mid-level flow pivots through its southern and eastern periphery across the southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains. Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward ahead of this low and associated jet streak and model consensus brings upper 50s dewpoints into the Permian Basin by this evening. This should result in a relatively confined region of surface-based buoyancy across the Permian Basin, which will combined with large-scale ascent and strong shear to support supercells. Primary threat will be large hail, although the anticipated development of surface-based buoyancy does indicate a low-probability threat for strong winds and/or a tornado. Low-level stability will increase quickly with eastward extent, as a result of both nocturnal cooling and generally cooler surface temperatures throughout the day. Even so, enough elevated buoyancy is anticipated for continued strong to occasionally severe storms throughout much of the evening and overnight, particularly in the 03Z-06Z time frame across southwest TX. Hail is the primary risk with these storms. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 11/23/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas. ...West TX... Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over AZ, with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms preceding it across central/eastern NM. This low is forecast to continue northeastward throughout the day as a belt of strong mid-level flow pivots through its southern and eastern periphery across the southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains. Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward ahead of this low and associated jet streak and model consensus brings upper 50s dewpoints into the Permian Basin by this evening. This should result in a relatively confined region of surface-based buoyancy across the Permian Basin, which will combined with large-scale ascent and strong shear to support supercells. Primary threat will be large hail, although the anticipated development of surface-based buoyancy does indicate a low-probability threat for strong winds and/or a tornado. Low-level stability will increase quickly with eastward extent, as a result of both nocturnal cooling and generally cooler surface temperatures throughout the day. Even so, enough elevated buoyancy is anticipated for continued strong to occasionally severe storms throughout much of the evening and overnight, particularly in the 03Z-06Z time frame across southwest TX. Hail is the primary risk with these storms. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 11/23/2025 Read more
SPC Nov 23, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas. ...West TX... A large upper low currently over AZ will track northeastward into NM, with a 70+ knot mid-level speed max approaching west TX by this afternoon. Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level winds will help transport 50s dewpoints into much of west TX ahead of a diffuse dryline. Most CAM solutions suggest that scattered thunderstorms will form along this dryline and track northeastward for a few hours. Given the strength of deep-layer shear, supercell structures will be likely with a risk of a large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms should weaken by late evening as they move into a progressively less unstable air mass and diurnal cooling ensues. ..Hart/Broyles.. 11/23/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas. ...West TX... A large upper low currently over AZ will track northeastward into NM, with a 70+ knot mid-level speed max approaching west TX by this afternoon. Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level winds will help transport 50s dewpoints into much of west TX ahead of a diffuse dryline. Most CAM solutions suggest that scattered thunderstorms will form along this dryline and track northeastward for a few hours. Given the strength of deep-layer shear, supercell structures will be likely with a risk of a large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms should weaken by late evening as they move into a progressively less unstable air mass and diurnal cooling ensues. ..Hart/Broyles.. 11/23/2025 Read more
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