SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook were needed.
Accelerating northwest flow aloft over the Four Corners region along
with a deepening lee trough across the central and southern High
Plains will support increased westerly downslope winds and drying
across east-central NM and TX Permian Basin through today. Greatest
RH reductions to around 15 percent are expected across the Permian
Basin vicinity by the afternoon. Although dry conditions will be
coupled with sustained westerly winds of 10-15 mph (locally 20 mph
with higher gusts), fuels remain largely unreceptive to significant
wildfire spread, mitigating the overall fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 12/06/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern/central
Rockies, with a lee cyclone developing across the central Plains.
The resulting increase in surface pressure gradient will support
enhancement of westerly downslope flow across portions of east
central New Mexico into the Texas Permian Basin. While some overlap
of dry and breezy conditions is likely, fuels in this region are not
receptive to spread after recent cool and wet conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Synopsis...
A progressive flow pattern will remain over the Lower 48 states
today. In the low levels, a front will reside over the Gulf and
extend east-northeastward across the northern half of the FL
Peninsula and east of the Carolina coast. The 12 UTC Tampa, FL raob
showed poor lapse rates. Limited buoyancy coupled with
weak/negligible low-level convergence/large-scale ascent will act to
limit convective coverage and intensity across the central FL
Peninsula today.
..Smith/Barnes.. 12/06/2025
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Synopsis...
A progressive flow pattern will remain over the Lower 48 states
today. In the low levels, a front will reside over the Gulf and
extend east-northeastward across the northern half of the FL
Peninsula and east of the Carolina coast. The 12 UTC Tampa, FL raob
showed poor lapse rates. Limited buoyancy coupled with
weak/negligible low-level convergence/large-scale ascent will act to
limit convective coverage and intensity across the central FL
Peninsula today.
..Smith/Barnes.. 12/06/2025
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Synopsis...
A progressive flow pattern will remain over the Lower 48 states
today. In the low levels, a front will reside over the Gulf and
extend east-northeastward across the northern half of the FL
Peninsula and east of the Carolina coast. The 12 UTC Tampa, FL raob
showed poor lapse rates. Limited buoyancy coupled with
weak/negligible low-level convergence/large-scale ascent will act to
limit convective coverage and intensity across the central FL
Peninsula today.
..Smith/Barnes.. 12/06/2025
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Broadly cyclonic flow will be maintained over much of the central
and eastern CONUS today. Appreciable low-level moisture to support
thunderstorms will remain generally confined along/south of a cold
front extending from the Gulf northeastward across the central FL
Peninsula and into the western Atlantic. Large-scale ascent and
low-level convergence along this boundary are both forecast to
remain weak, with poor lapse rates aloft also contributing to
limited instability over land. While an occasional shower may reach
sufficient height to support charge separation and lightning across
parts of the central FL Peninsula, the overall coverage of
thunderstorms over land should remain quite isolated.
..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/06/2025
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Broadly cyclonic flow will be maintained over much of the central
and eastern CONUS today. Appreciable low-level moisture to support
thunderstorms will remain generally confined along/south of a cold
front extending from the Gulf northeastward across the central FL
Peninsula and into the western Atlantic. Large-scale ascent and
low-level convergence along this boundary are both forecast to
remain weak, with poor lapse rates aloft also contributing to
limited instability over land. While an occasional shower may reach
sufficient height to support charge separation and lightning across
parts of the central FL Peninsula, the overall coverage of
thunderstorms over land should remain quite isolated.
..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/06/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high evolving near
and to the north of the Aleutians, it appears that the large-scale
mid/upper flow pattern may not appreciably change, aside from
perhaps some amplification, across North America into next weekend.
Models indicate that large-scale mid/upper ridging will generally be
maintained across the Pacific Coast through Rockies, with downstream
troughing across the Mississippi Valley into western Atlantic.
Short wave developments within this regime are forecast to lead to
another notable intrusion of cold/dry air to the lee of the Rockies,
through much of the Southeast and Gulf Basin, late this coming week
into next weekend. It appears that this will occur before Gulf
boundary-layer modification, in the wake of the prior cold/dry
intrusion, can become potentially supportive of a substantive moist
return flow.
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high evolving near
and to the north of the Aleutians, it appears that the large-scale
mid/upper flow pattern may not appreciably change, aside from
perhaps some amplification, across North America into next weekend.
Models indicate that large-scale mid/upper ridging will generally be
maintained across the Pacific Coast through Rockies, with downstream
troughing across the Mississippi Valley into western Atlantic.
Short wave developments within this regime are forecast to lead to
another notable intrusion of cold/dry air to the lee of the Rockies,
through much of the Southeast and Gulf Basin, late this coming week
into next weekend. It appears that this will occur before Gulf
boundary-layer modification, in the wake of the prior cold/dry
intrusion, can become potentially supportive of a substantive moist
return flow.
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Monday through Monday night.
...Discussion...
It appears that the center of a prominent mid-level vortex emerging
from the Hudson Bay vicinity during the next day or two will
continue redeveloping east-southeastward into and across the
Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity through this period. To the
southwest and south of this feature, broad mid-level troughing is
forecast to be maintained east of the Rockies through the western
Atlantic, as far south as the northern and central Gulf Basin,
downstream of persistent broad ridging across the eastern
mid-latitude Pacific through Pacific Coast and Intermountain West.
Models indicate some amplification of the mid-level troughing across
the northwestern Gulf coast and Gulf Basin, and perhaps some
downstream suppression of subtropical ridging across the Caribbean
and Bahamas, as a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air
contributes to the southward advancement of the primary cold front
through much of the remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf
Basin.
At the same time, it appears that a short wave impulse progressing
through the crest of the larger-scale ridge will contribute to
fairly significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian
and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night. This likely will be
accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high
plains, but dry stable conditions will be maintained there and
across much of the remainder of the U.S.
...Florida...
It appears that weak forcing for ascent and instability will tend to
limit the risk for thunderstorm development along/ahead the
southward advancing front, but NAM forecast soundings suggest at
least some potential for thunderstorm development near southeast
coastal areas Monday afternoon into evening.
..Kerr.. 12/06/2025
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS on
D2/Sunday. A cold front will usher in cooler and drier conditions
across the Plains with lighter winds amid building surface high
pressure. Upper level ridging will continue across the western US,
with warming and dry conditions but light winds. Overall, overlap of
receptive fuels and breezy/dry conditions is not expected.
..Thornton.. 12/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern/central
Rockies, with a lee cyclone developing across the central Plains.
The resulting increase in surface pressure gradient will support
enhancement of westerly downslope flow across portions of east
central New Mexico into the Texas Permian Basin. While some overlap
of dry and breezy conditions is likely, fuels in this region are not
receptive to spread after recent cool and wet conditions.
..Thornton.. 12/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Aside from the possibility of a couple of thunderstorms across the
central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears
negligible across much of the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.
...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that mid/upper ridging may rebuild
offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, while
being maintained across and inland of coastal areas through this
period. Downstream flow may not change appreciably on the
larger-scale, but one embedded vortex emerging from the Hudson Bay
vicinity may redevelop southeastward through central Quebec, while
at least a couple of short wave perturbations consolidate within
another branch of cyclonic flow across the central/southern Great
Plains through Southeast.
This latter development may be accompanied by modest mid-level
height falls as far south as the central Florida Peninsula by late
Sunday night, along with a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air
across the Gulf coast into northwestern Gulf Basin. Downstream, a
weak low may begin to develop along the initial stalled/slow moving
frontal zone, east of the Florida Peninsula.
...Florida...
Relatively warm layers in mid/upper levels, associated with
subtropical ridging centered over the Caribbean and adjacent western
Atlantic, may tend to suppress convective potential, particularly
across the southern into central peninsula through at least Sunday
evening. However, beneath a belt of modest west-southwesterly
low-level flow (20-30 kt around 850 mb), an initially drier boundary
layer over the interior into eastern peninsula may moisten and
become potentially unstable by late Sunday afternoon into evening.
It is possible that this could become supportive of a period of
thunderstorm development, mainly focused along/ahead of the cold
front as it advances into and across the Interstate 4 corridor.
At least some machine learning guidance suggests that the
environment could become supportive of low probabilities for severe
weather, mainly in the form of a generally brief, weak tornado or
two. With sufficient boundary-layer moistening, forecast soundings
do depict the development of modest low-level hodographs, and strong
deep-layer shear beneath 40-50+ kt flow around 500 mb. At this
point, however, this potential still appears too conditional to
introduce a categorical severe risk, based on latest HREF and other
model guidance. But trends will continue to be monitored.
..Kerr.. 12/06/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Discussion...
Mean long-wave trough is expected to remain centered across the
eastern Plains/MS Valley through the day1 period. Negligible height
changes are expected across lower latitudes which will result in a
synoptic front oscillating across the northern/central FL Peninsula.
This boundary will serve as the primary focus for the potential for
isolated thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance is not
particularly aggressive in air mass destabilization across the
Peninsula, but showers and a few thunderstorms should develop
along/north of the boundary as deep westerly flow provides weak lift
atop the frontal zone. While deep-layer shear is strong, weak
buoyancy and poor lapse rates do not support robust or organized
severe updrafts.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/06/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible tonight.
...01 Update...
Surface front has advanced across the northern FL Peninsula early
this evening. Weak convection is noted along/behind this boundary,
but the more robust updrafts are now offshore where isolated flashes
of lightning are noted off the GA Coast. Latest diagnostic data does
not appear particularly favorable for deep convection along the wind
shift tonight, and post frontal elevated buoyancy is expected to
remain quite weak. Current thinking is the primary risk for isolated
thunderstorms will be well off the GA/SC Coasts.
..Darrow.. 12/06/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Model guidance consensus indicates little deviation in the overall
upper-level pattern across CONUS through next week. Ridging nudges
further into CA and the Southwest while troughing persists across
the eastern U.S. A warming and drying trend under the ridge should
continue across the much of the Southwest, CA and Southern Plains
through much of next week while colder/wetter conditions exist
across the eastern U.S., largely mitigating fire weather threats. A
dry cold front will initially shutter fire weather concerns across
the Southern Plains Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday, with relatively warm
temperatures returning midweek contributing to drying of fuels
across the region. A strengthening polar jet across the Northern
Rockies and central/northern Plains and subsequent stronger surface
cyclogenesis in the Central Plains could promote dry and breezy
conditions across eastern NM/West TX vicinity on Day 7/Thursday.
However, uncertainty in fuels and relative humidity reductions
limits confidence in introducing critical fire weather probabilities
at this time.
..Williams.. 12/05/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook. Deep layer
west-northwest flow over the central/southern Rockies increases
through Day 2/Saturday as an upstream mid-level short wave
approaches the Great Plains. A strengthening lee trough across the
central/southern Plains combined with the broad northwesterly flow
aloft should promote a dry and breezy downslope regime across
southeastern NM and TX Permian Basin region Saturday. A few hours of
sustained west to southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity
below 15% are likely, although fuels will remain largely unreceptive
to wildfire spread, limiting the fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 12/05/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Saturday.
Strengthening westerly flow aloft will overspread the
northern/central Rockies as the next mid-level wave shifts out of
the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A stronger lee
cyclone is progged to develop across the central Plains. This will
likely develop areas of overlap of dry/windy conditions across the
southern High Plains. However, a lack of receptive fuels with recent
wet/cool conditions precludes the need to include any areas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook. Deep layer
west-northwest flow over the central/southern Rockies increases
through Day 2/Saturday as an upstream mid-level short wave
approaches the Great Plains. A strengthening lee trough across the
central/southern Plains combined with the broad northwesterly flow
aloft should promote a dry and breezy downslope regime across
southeastern NM and TX Permian Basin region Saturday. A few hours of
sustained west to southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity
below 15% are likely, although fuels will remain largely unreceptive
to wildfire spread, limiting the fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 12/05/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Saturday.
Strengthening westerly flow aloft will overspread the
northern/central Rockies as the next mid-level wave shifts out of
the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A stronger lee
cyclone is progged to develop across the central Plains. This will
likely develop areas of overlap of dry/windy conditions across the
southern High Plains. However, a lack of receptive fuels with recent
wet/cool conditions precludes the need to include any areas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Within a broad, large-scale trough covering much of the
central/eastern CONUS, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move
from the southern Great Plains into the Southeast on Sunday. In
response to this system, some low-level moisture return is possible
into parts of the upper TX coast and southern LA, in advance of an
approaching cold front. However, persistent surface ridging will
tend to keep the richer Gulf moisture mostly suppressed offshore.
Early-day elevated convection will be possible across parts of the
Gulf Coast, to the north of the primary baroclinic zone. Convective
showers may develop later in the day across parts of LA and southern
MS along/ahead of the approaching cold front, though forecast
soundings currently suggest that this convection may not be
sufficiently deep for lightning production.
Farther east, thermodynamic profiles may become at least marginally
supportive of thunderstorm development across parts of the FL
Peninsula and Keys. Isolated diurnal storm development cannot be
ruled out near any sea breeze boundaries and a remnant baroclinic
zone across the peninsula, though large-scale forcing will be
limited. Late in the period, thunderstorms over the Gulf may
approach parts of the FL Panhandle and Keys. While some increase in
deep-layer shear is possible with time, generally weak lapse rates
and modest buoyancy are currently expected to limit the
organized-severe threat.
..Dean.. 12/05/2025
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