Storm Prediction Center

MD 1033 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 287... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1033 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0602 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Kansas...and far southern Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 287... Valid 082302Z - 090030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 287 continues. SUMMARY...Severe storms ongoing within Tornado Watch 287 are likely to remain severe this evening with a threat for all hazards. Additional development and upscale growth is possible but uncertain. Regardless, the threat for severe weather should increase farther east this evening. A downstream watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Several robust supercells have matured along the frontal boundary this afternoon from southern NE into northern KS across Tornado Watch 287. The environment remains hot and extremely unstable with dewpoints in the 70s F supporting MLCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg. This, along with deep-layer shear of 35-40 kt will continue to support a robust severe environment favorable for large to very large hail. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are also possible with more persistent supercell structures despite modest low-level shear. Vigorous new storm development over northern KS suggests the potential for storm clustering and upscale growth this evening. As convective coverage increases, cold pool consolidation may eventually favor the development of an organized cluster or bowing segment. This would increase the threat for damaging winds as the system moves southeastward this evening. The larger buoyancy could potentially support some significant gusts and the potential for QLCS tornadoes as well. While the exact convective evolution is uncertain, the environment downstream of WW287 is supportive of a severe weather threat. This threat should increase over the next hour or so as storms spread eastward. A downstream Watch is likely this evening, though uncertainty on the type and timing remains. ..Lyons/Gleason.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 40489919 39789635 39449617 38959602 38399621 37979639 37959703 38319834 38549935 38739975 38979996 39830015 40489919 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A large scale upper trough will gradually shift eastward from the Northern Rockies on Day 3/Wednesday into the Great Lakes by Day 5/Friday. A troughing pattern will likely remain entrenched across Ontario Canada and northeastern U.S. with another possible short wave pushing southeastward into the Northern Rockies early next week. The departing trough and accompanying stronger mid-level flow will subdue broader fire weather concerns across the West later this week as the amplifying ridge promotes a warming and drying trend across the region. ...Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday... ...Eastern Great Basin, Colorado Plateau and central High Plains... Stronger westerly surface winds in the wake of a cold front below a pronounced 80-90 knot mid-level jet, will likely bring an enhanced fire weather concern to portions of southeastern WY and western NE Panhandle on Day 3/Wednesday. 70% critical probabilities have been introduced where west winds of 25-30 mph and RH as low as 15% align with pockets of dry fuels. Weaker but still impactful westerly flow will bring a fire weather concern to much of the eastern Great Basin, Colorado Plateau and Four corners regions where 40% probabilities remain. The broader fire weather threat contracts towards the Four Corners and adjacent southern CO Rockies by Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday as influence from the departing upper trough and surface pressure features begins to wane. ...Sacramento Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly flow funneling into the Sacramento Valley will likely promote an enhanced fire weather threat for this region and adjacent valley foothills beginning Day 3/Wednesday, lingering into Day 4/Thursday. North winds of 10 to locally 20 mph, RH at or below 15% are expected to combine with receptive fuels to support fire spread. 40% critical probabilities were added for Day 4/Thursday accounting for latest model guidance and duration of event. ...Day 6/Saturday... ...Northern Arizona and Southern Utah... A weak upper trough west of Baja Peninsula will aid in northward transport of deeper Pacific moisture from Tropical Storm Boris through the week, reaching the lower desert areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Friday. Precipitable water values of one inch or more should stay south of the Mogollon Rim region through the weekend. A dry thunderstorm concern will likely exist on the fringes of the deeper moisture across northern AZ into southern UT. A 10% probability dry thunderstorm area was introduced, although some modifications may be needed in subsequent outlooks as forecast certainty increases. ..Williams.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1030 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1030 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...parts of east central Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 081929Z - 082200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development increasingly probable by 2-4 PM MDT, including an evolving supercell or two accompanied by the risk for a tornado, in addition to sizable hail. DISCUSSION...Surface ridging nosing southward through northeastern Colorado is beginning to weaken, with 2-hourly surface pressure falls around 2 mb sampled in 19Z surface observations to the immediate lee of the Colorado Front Range. Near-surface flow is veering to an east/southeasterly component, leading to moistening upslope flow north of the Palmer Ridge into the Greater Denver area. Beneath modest (around 20 kt), but strongly sheared, southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, the environment appears likely to become increasingly conducive to supercell development during the next few hours, as the boundary layer destabilizes with continuing insolation. Though mid-level heights are tending to rise, it appears that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. Strongest storms along the northern slope of the Palmer Ridge may be accompanied by potential for a tornado or two, in addition to sizable hail. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 40220492 39730257 38580344 39240493 40220492 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 1031 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN COLORADO/SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1031 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Wyoming and adjacent northeastern Colorado/southwestern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081951Z - 082145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Renewed isolated supercell development possible through late afternoon. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...Isolated vigorous thunderstorm development is already underway near/north of the Cheyenne Ridge, likely supported by inflow emanating from a narrow corridor of low-level moistening along the Front Range into southeastern Wyoming. Although warming mid-levels and slower low-level moisture to the east of the higher terrain may initially inhibit eastward propagation of stronger convection, upslope flow into the higher terrain near/east of Cheyenne may provide a focus for renewed strong to severe thunderstorm development through late afternoon. Beneath modest, but strongly sheared, southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, this may include an evolving supercell or two accompanied by the risk for large hail. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 42410493 41880380 40920382 41010469 41980529 42410493 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1032 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1032 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...portions of the southern High Plains and central Great Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082012Z - 082215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated, high-based thunderstorms will pose a risk for large hail and damaging/severe wind gusts this through this evening. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a surface low located in southwestern Kansas, with a trailing dryline extending southwestward through the Texas Panhandle and into far southeastern New Mexico. A weak cold front/surface trough was also analyzed, trailing southwestward from the low into the Oklahoma Panhandle before extending into Colorado. Latest guidance continues to suggest that isolated, high-based thunderstorms will develop along/west of this dryline and south of the surface trough through the late afternoon/early evening. Recent satellite/observational data supports this, with deepening cumulus noted along and west of the dryline within the plume of steep low-level lapse rates and a modified 18z observed AMA sounding suggesting minimal remaining inhibition. Weak mid-level flow and effective shear (less than 20 kts per latest mesoanalysis) will largely inhibit updraft organization. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers west of the dryline (dewpoint depressions exceeding 40-50 F) and steep low-level lapse rates will promote the potential for isolated damaging/severe wind gusts. Despite weak effective shear, steep mid-level lapse rates (9+ C/km as sampled by the AMA/DDC/LMN 18z observed soundings) and a modest strengthening of upper-level flow through the evening will also support isolated large hail, particularly with any storm that can interact with greater moisture along/east of the dryline (although, low-level capping within the moist air mass east of the dryline will likely yield short longevity for any storms that cross the dryline). Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time owing to the expectations for limited storm organization and only an isolated severe threat. ..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 34110064 32330249 32090284 31970337 32090385 32410397 32960379 33680344 35030247 35140242 35970178 36240171 36560173 36890184 37060195 37320196 37660191 37840173 37960145 37990089 37929995 37779939 37499886 36999869 36329894 35459952 34110064 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1029 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1029 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...parts of southwestern into south central Nebraska and northwestern into north central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081849Z - 082145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development, including a couple of evolving supercells, appears increasingly probable by 3-5 PM CDT. A severe weather watch is likely to be issued at some point, through timing remains a bit uncertain. DISCUSSION...In the wake of a subtle, weakening short wave perturbation, stronger warm advection (based around the 700 mb level) is focused along the western Nebraska/Kansas state border vicinity. This is near the northern periphery of a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air, and likely to persist into late afternoon, based on latest Rapid Refresh output. Associated forcing for ascent has been supporting thunderstorm development in an arcing band across the North Platte toward Imperial NE vicinities, but inflow of air emanating from a seasonably moist low-level environment to its southeast has not been sufficient to maintain particularly vigorous convection. Closer to the state border vicinity, moistening associated with a gradual veering of low-level flow from a general northeasterly to east-southeasterly component, coupled with continued insolation, appears likely to contribute to weakening inhibition for boundary-layer parcels increasingly characterized by CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. As this occurs, perhaps as early as 20-22Z, potential for strong to severe thunderstorm development may begin to more notably increase. Due to veering of winds with height, deep-layer mean flow is southerly and rather light, around 10-15 kts, so storms likely will be initially slow moving. But deep-layer shear appears more than sufficient for supercells, which should tend to propagate sharply to the right (southeastward) through late afternoon. These may be accompanied by potential for very large hail, perhaps some risk for a tornado, and locally strong downbursts, before activity tends to grow upscale. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40480001 40349910 39819833 39269894 39500024 40240075 40480001 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0289 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0289 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0289 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0289 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 289 SEVERE TSTM NE WY 082055Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 289 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop through the remainder of the afternoon and persist into the evening as this activity moves generally west to east over the Watch area. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary severe hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of Torrington WY to 25 miles south of Alliance NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 287...WW 288... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26010. ...Smith Read more

WW 0288 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0288 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0288 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0288 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 288 TORNADO CO KS NE 082030Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 288 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Far Northwest Kansas Far Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening. The stronger storms will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to giant hail (1 to 4 inches in diameter), and severe gusts. Some clustering of storms is possible later this evening with the severe wind threat becoming more prevalent, but a lingering risk for large hail and a tornado may continue with any surface-based supercell. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles northwest of Denver CO to 25 miles north northeast of Goodland KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 287... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0287 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0287 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0287 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0287 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 287 TORNADO KS NE 082010Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 287 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern into Central Kansas Southern Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered supercells are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon into the early evening. Large to giant hail will be possible with the supercells. A tornado risk with the possibility for a couple of tornadoes will seemingly develop later this afternoon into the early evening coincident with perhaps some enhancement of low-level shear. Upscale growth into a severe linear cluster is forecast to eventually evolve this evening with severe gusts becoming more prevalent. Significant severe gusts ranging from 75-90 mph are possible this evening as this storm evolution occurs. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south of Mccook NE to 55 miles east northeast of Russell KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28010. ...Smith Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms potentially capable of large to giant hail and a couple of tornadoes are still possible over the plains of eastern Colorado. Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected farther east over northern Kansas late this afternoon through the late evening. Very large to giant hail and severe gusts ranging from 60-100 mph are possible along with a risk for a couple of tornadoes. ...20Z Update... Hail conditional intensity level 2, and tornado conditional intensity level 1 were added to portions of northern into central KS. Some of the latest high-resolution guidance depicts supercells potentially remaining discrete or semi-discrete for a couple more hours longer compared to earlier CAM runs. Given anticipated strong low-level shear along the terminus of the low-level jet/baroclinic boundary intersection, and over 40 kts of effective bulk shear likely, any supercells that remain discrete could become quite intense given strong to locally extreme buoyancy. Very large hail approaching 4 inches in diameter may occur with longer-lived supercells. Furthermore, RAP forecast soundings show appreciably large and curved low-level hodographs this evening (given low-level jet intensification). As such, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, either with discrete supercells or with a well-defined mesovortex as storms merge into an intense cold-pool-driven bow echo MCS later this evening. A Category 4/Moderate risk was considered for this outlook. However, it remains unclear whether supercells will rapidly grow upscale into a bow echo, or maintain discrete structures for a longer period of time. It therefore remains questionable whether significant-severe hail or wind will dominate long enough to warrant Moderate risk coverage of a specific hazard. Nonetheless, very intense and damaging storms capable of a combination of all significant-severe hazards are expected across portions of northern into eastern KS this afternoon into the evening hours. Otherwise, the rest of the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 06/08/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026/ ...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS... A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained over the central High Plains to the downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. A surface low near Dodge City, KS and moist easterly low-level flow to its north, will contribute to upslope flow into eastern CO and the CO Front Range. Strong heating and 50s to lower 60s deg F dewpoints and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will result in moderate to large buoyancy by mid afternoon. Elongated hodographs will favor supercells with the more intense updrafts. Some increase in low-level hodographs towards early evening coupled with a moist boundary layer may aid in the risk for supercell tornadoes, in addition to the risk for hail. Some of the latest model forecast soundings suggest giant hail (3.0-4.5 inches in diameter) with the more intense supercells over eastern CO late this afternoon into the early evening. Severe gusts will also be possible with the stronger storms with this activity diminishing by late evening. ...KS vicinity... A very moist surface was analyzed this morning across the central Great Plains to the south of a front across central and northern KS to the east of a triple point. Model guidance shows lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios of 16-18 g/kg later this afternoon. This very rich moisture coupled with heating to the south of the front and early day outflow from storm activity over southwest NE, will result in a very unstable airmass by late afternoon. Model guidance has trended towards a severe MCS developing across northern KS and moving east-southeastward into the lower MO Valley by late evening. Although it remains unclear exactly how this will evolve, confidence has increased with regard to a storm cluster and upscale growth occurring on the northern rim of very rich moisture and a modest southerly LLJ. Some indication exists for a couple of supercells to develop ahead of the evolving cluster and eventual squall line. Large hail and perhaps a tornado risk could accompany this activity. Have increased severe-wind probabilities and intensity levels, with the most intense phase of the squall line likely where the overlap of greater effective shear (30-35 kt) and the large buoyancy resides. A bow potentially capable of a swath of 60-80 mph gusts (locally peaking 80-100 mph) is forecast, along with the possibility for a couple of mesovortices capable of these locally higher gusts and/or tornadoes. A gradual weakening is expected as this MCS moves into western parts of MO late. ...Southern KS/Northwest OK... A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX Panhandle into south-central KS. Hot conditions along/west of the dryline will help to initiate isolated thunderstorms. These high-based supercells could pose an occasional threat of hail and damaging winds for a few hours. ...Southern IL/Western KY... An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms potentially capable of large to giant hail and a couple of tornadoes are still possible over the plains of eastern Colorado. Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected farther east over northern Kansas late this afternoon through the late evening. Very large to giant hail and severe gusts ranging from 60-100 mph are possible along with a risk for a couple of tornadoes. ...20Z Update... Hail conditional intensity level 2, and tornado conditional intensity level 1 were added to portions of northern into central KS. Some of the latest high-resolution guidance depicts supercells potentially remaining discrete or semi-discrete for a couple more hours longer compared to earlier CAM runs. Given anticipated strong low-level shear along the terminus of the low-level jet/baroclinic boundary intersection, and over 40 kts of effective bulk shear likely, any supercells that remain discrete could become quite intense given strong to locally extreme buoyancy. Very large hail approaching 4 inches in diameter may occur with longer-lived supercells. Furthermore, RAP forecast soundings show appreciably large and curved low-level hodographs this evening (given low-level jet intensification). As such, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, either with discrete supercells or with a well-defined mesovortex as storms merge into an intense cold-pool-driven bow echo MCS later this evening. A Category 4/Moderate risk was considered for this outlook. However, it remains unclear whether supercells will rapidly grow upscale into a bow echo, or maintain discrete structures for a longer period of time. It therefore remains questionable whether significant-severe hail or wind will dominate long enough to warrant Moderate risk coverage of a specific hazard. Nonetheless, very intense and damaging storms capable of a combination of all significant-severe hazards are expected across portions of northern into eastern KS this afternoon into the evening hours. Otherwise, the rest of the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 06/08/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026/ ...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS... A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained over the central High Plains to the downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. A surface low near Dodge City, KS and moist easterly low-level flow to its north, will contribute to upslope flow into eastern CO and the CO Front Range. Strong heating and 50s to lower 60s deg F dewpoints and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will result in moderate to large buoyancy by mid afternoon. Elongated hodographs will favor supercells with the more intense updrafts. Some increase in low-level hodographs towards early evening coupled with a moist boundary layer may aid in the risk for supercell tornadoes, in addition to the risk for hail. Some of the latest model forecast soundings suggest giant hail (3.0-4.5 inches in diameter) with the more intense supercells over eastern CO late this afternoon into the early evening. Severe gusts will also be possible with the stronger storms with this activity diminishing by late evening. ...KS vicinity... A very moist surface was analyzed this morning across the central Great Plains to the south of a front across central and northern KS to the east of a triple point. Model guidance shows lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios of 16-18 g/kg later this afternoon. This very rich moisture coupled with heating to the south of the front and early day outflow from storm activity over southwest NE, will result in a very unstable airmass by late afternoon. Model guidance has trended towards a severe MCS developing across northern KS and moving east-southeastward into the lower MO Valley by late evening. Although it remains unclear exactly how this will evolve, confidence has increased with regard to a storm cluster and upscale growth occurring on the northern rim of very rich moisture and a modest southerly LLJ. Some indication exists for a couple of supercells to develop ahead of the evolving cluster and eventual squall line. Large hail and perhaps a tornado risk could accompany this activity. Have increased severe-wind probabilities and intensity levels, with the most intense phase of the squall line likely where the overlap of greater effective shear (30-35 kt) and the large buoyancy resides. A bow potentially capable of a swath of 60-80 mph gusts (locally peaking 80-100 mph) is forecast, along with the possibility for a couple of mesovortices capable of these locally higher gusts and/or tornadoes. A gradual weakening is expected as this MCS moves into western parts of MO late. ...Southern KS/Northwest OK... A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX Panhandle into south-central KS. Hot conditions along/west of the dryline will help to initiate isolated thunderstorms. These high-based supercells could pose an occasional threat of hail and damaging winds for a few hours. ...Southern IL/Western KY... An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN... ...Southwest, eastern Great Basin and Central Rockies... An upper-level trough over the Northwest CONUS and attendant stronger mid-level flow atop a well mixed boundary layer, will support a broad fire weather concern across the eastern Great Basin, Southwest, Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A corridor of stronger southwesterly flow ahead of an advancing cold front will set up across the CO Plateau where sustained southwest winds of 20 mph to locally 30 mph are expected. The winds coupled with RH at or below 10% and receptive fuels will sustain several hours of critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon. Expanded Elevated highlights into the central CO and adjacent high plains. Lee surface troughing across the central High Plains will bolster southwest winds of 15-20 mph and enhance downslope drying across the Front Range, where RH reductions of 15-20% will likely align with pockets of receptive fuels. ...Northwestern New Mexico and far southern Colorado... An approaching upper-level trough, associated accelerating mid-level flow and existing mid-level moisture should support a thunderstorm threat for Tuesday for northwestern NM into far southern CO. Nocturnal convection is possible through tonight into Tuesday morning across northwestern NM although primary period of concern remains Tuesday afternoon where daytime instability will be maximized. Thunderstorms will quickly translate northeastward through the period owing to increasing flow aloft, limiting wetting rain potential. A deep, dry boundary layer will further inhibit surface rainfall from isolated thunderstorms. Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights have been added to northwestern NM and far southern CO given receptive fuels and potential for lightning ignitions. ..Williams.. 06/08/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026/ ...Synopsis... A longwave trough will remain in place over the northwestern CONUS through the day on Tuesday with a strong jet max moving in across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. This will result gusty winds across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rockies, and central High Plains. ...Southwest and Great Basin... Diurnal mixing with strong (for the season) flow aloft will result in winds of 20-30 mph across much of the region along with RH of 5-15% in the afternoon. Continued poor overnight RH recovery means fuels in this area are critically dry. Therefore, have introduced a Critical fire weather risk area here. ...Central High Plains and Foothills... Strong winds (20-30 mph and locally higher) are expected to overspread the region along with RH values in the 10-15% range west of a dryline. The primary uncertainty in this region is with the fuels, as many areas have received precipitation recently, and some may receive additional precipitation on Monday. Therefore, will add an Elevated risk in this area, though there may be some localized areas of Critical fire weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN... ...Southwest, eastern Great Basin and Central Rockies... An upper-level trough over the Northwest CONUS and attendant stronger mid-level flow atop a well mixed boundary layer, will support a broad fire weather concern across the eastern Great Basin, Southwest, Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A corridor of stronger southwesterly flow ahead of an advancing cold front will set up across the CO Plateau where sustained southwest winds of 20 mph to locally 30 mph are expected. The winds coupled with RH at or below 10% and receptive fuels will sustain several hours of critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon. Expanded Elevated highlights into the central CO and adjacent high plains. Lee surface troughing across the central High Plains will bolster southwest winds of 15-20 mph and enhance downslope drying across the Front Range, where RH reductions of 15-20% will likely align with pockets of receptive fuels. ...Northwestern New Mexico and far southern Colorado... An approaching upper-level trough, associated accelerating mid-level flow and existing mid-level moisture should support a thunderstorm threat for Tuesday for northwestern NM into far southern CO. Nocturnal convection is possible through tonight into Tuesday morning across northwestern NM although primary period of concern remains Tuesday afternoon where daytime instability will be maximized. Thunderstorms will quickly translate northeastward through the period owing to increasing flow aloft, limiting wetting rain potential. A deep, dry boundary layer will further inhibit surface rainfall from isolated thunderstorms. Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights have been added to northwestern NM and far southern CO given receptive fuels and potential for lightning ignitions. ..Williams.. 06/08/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026/ ...Synopsis... A longwave trough will remain in place over the northwestern CONUS through the day on Tuesday with a strong jet max moving in across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. This will result gusty winds across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rockies, and central High Plains. ...Southwest and Great Basin... Diurnal mixing with strong (for the season) flow aloft will result in winds of 20-30 mph across much of the region along with RH of 5-15% in the afternoon. Continued poor overnight RH recovery means fuels in this area are critically dry. Therefore, have introduced a Critical fire weather risk area here. ...Central High Plains and Foothills... Strong winds (20-30 mph and locally higher) are expected to overspread the region along with RH values in the 10-15% range west of a dryline. The primary uncertainty in this region is with the fuels, as many areas have received precipitation recently, and some may receive additional precipitation on Monday. Therefore, will add an Elevated risk in this area, though there may be some localized areas of Critical fire weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan and northern MT Wednesday morning. One upper shortwave trough associated with this system will be oriented over the northern High Plains Wednesday morning, and will spread eastward through the period into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. A second upper shortwave trough will deepen and develop southeast from the northern Rockies to the central High Plains by Thursday morning. At the surface, a cold front will initially be located from eastern ND toward the central High Plains. The northern portion of this front will develop east across the Upper Midwest, while the southwestern extension of the front stalls from the Mid-MO Valley into the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over NE/KS overnight. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity... Remnant convection from the Day 2/Tuesday period may be ongoing/decaying across parts of the region Wednesday morning. Furthermore, convective outflow could be positioned somewhere across the Upper Midwest. As a result, evolution of convection from the Day 2 period will likely have some impact on where corridors of greater severe potential develop on Wednesday. Regardless, rich boundary layer moisture will spread across parts of MN/WI/IA/IL as a warm front retreats northward across the Great Lakes and ahead of the advancing surface cold front. This will foster strong destabilization across the region as vertical shear increases with time. Numerous organized severe thunderstorms, possibly both supercells and bowing segments, are expected with an accompany all-hazards severe risk, particularly across parts of MN/WI and possibly IA into northern IL. With southwest extent into the Mid/Lower MO Valley, effective shear magnitudes will decrease. However, a very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the stalled surface boundary across KS to western IA. A dryline will also extend into the southern High Plains, though boundary layer moisture will also become more modest with southwest extent. Both of these boundaries will serve as a focus for a second area of severe thunderstorm potential during the late afternoon/evening, with both large hail and damaging gusts possible. Additional severe thunderstorms may develop overnight as a low-level jet strengthens and overspreads the stalled surface boundary across KS. Large hail could accompany this activity later in the forecast period. ..Leitman.. 06/08/2026 Read more