Storm Prediction Center

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026/ ...Discussion... A prominent longwave trough will continue to prevail from the Rockies eastward, with related continental low-level trajectories. Lingering thunderstorm potential off the coast of southern Florida in vicinity of the Florida Straits will continue to diminish as a cold front progresses southeastward. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. ...Southeast FL and the Keys... A broad large-scale trough will amplify over the eastern half of the CONUS through the period. In response, a weak warm front/surface wave and attendant moisture will overspread southeastern FL during the overnight hours. Related destabilization will support isolated thunderstorms along the immediate coastal areas and the Keys. Modest strengthening of low/deep-layer shear within the weak warm-advection regime may favor an isolated strong storm or two, though the stronger activity should generally remain offshore. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Discussion... Embedded within a large-scale trough encompassing the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, a shortwave trough will overspread the mid-Mississippi Valley into the lower Great Lakes during the afternoon. Strengthening large-scale ascent and steepening of deep-layer lapse rates may yield weak and shallow buoyancy. However, thermodynamic profiles appear insufficient to support deep convection or lightning at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Discussion... Embedded within a large-scale trough encompassing the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, a shortwave trough will overspread the mid-Mississippi Valley into the lower Great Lakes during the afternoon. Strengthening large-scale ascent and steepening of deep-layer lapse rates may yield weak and shallow buoyancy. However, thermodynamic profiles appear insufficient to support deep convection or lightning at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The forecast remains unchanged. The lowest RH is expected to remain near the terrain/foothills in Colorado where downslope flow will be greatest. However, there may be a small zone in northeast Colorado along the fringe of lower RH that will observe a couple hours of critical conditions this afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 01/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will continue to deepen over the eastern US as a second trough begins to move out of southern Canada. A strong jet streak and reinforcing cold front will approach from the north bolstering strong surface winds. With dry conditions already in place, the strong winds will likely support increasing fire-weather potential Thursday. ...Central and southern High Plains... As the strong trough moves southeast over the US, lee troughing will promote stronger westerly downslope surface flow over parts of the central High Plains. With a dry air mass in place behind the prior cold font afternoon RH values of 15-25% are expected across parts of southeastern WY into northern CO and western KS/NE. Surface winds of 25-40 mph overlapped with the low humidity will likely favor sustained elevated fire-weather conditions for several hours given very dry fine fuels. A couple of hours of near-critical fire-weather concerns are also possible across the region through the afternoon. The strongest gusts (30-40 mph) will likely not overlap with the lowest humidity, and some light precipitation has tempered the driest fuels. This lower confidence precludes the inclusion of a critical area for now. However, with strong gusts in proximity to RH in the 20-30% range and fuels abnormally dry, brief critical fire-weather conditions are possible. A west/northwesterly flow regime is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle and eastern NM with similar dry/breezy conditions. Lee troughing will promote afternoon winds of 15-20 mph amid RH below 20%. With dry fuels in place, and recent fire activity, several hours of enhanced fire-weather conditions appear probable over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon. ..Southeast... Very dry surface conditions are expected over the Southeast in the wake of the strong frontal passage. Northwest winds of 10-20 mph are likely over portions of southern GA into the carolinas and northern FL. Afternoon RH values will likely be below 30%, before much cooler surface temperatures and light precipitation arrive behind the front. This should mitigate fire-weather concerns to some degree, though localized elevated conditions are possible given the dry state of areas fuels and the overlap with breezy offshore winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... A prominent longwave trough will continue to prevail from the Rockies eastward, with related continental low-level trajectories. Lingering thunderstorm potential off the coast of southern Florida in vicinity of the Florida Straits will continue to diminish as a cold front progresses southeastward. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0615 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may affect south Florida this morning. ...South FL... Morning water vapor imagery shows a persistent large upper trough over the eastern states, with a significant shortwave trough digging southeastward over LA/MS. This feature will quickly rotate across the Gulf and approach FL by early afternoon. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the feature could be sufficient for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the moist and marginally unstable airmass along/ahead of a cold front over far southern FL, the Straits, and near-shore waters. This threat will end by early afternoon as the front moves off the east coast. Poor mid-level lapse rates and marginal instability should limit any severe threat. ..Hart/Kerr.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0615 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may affect south Florida this morning. ...South FL... Morning water vapor imagery shows a persistent large upper trough over the eastern states, with a significant shortwave trough digging southeastward over LA/MS. This feature will quickly rotate across the Gulf and approach FL by early afternoon. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the feature could be sufficient for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the moist and marginally unstable airmass along/ahead of a cold front over far southern FL, the Straits, and near-shore waters. This threat will end by early afternoon as the front moves off the east coast. Poor mid-level lapse rates and marginal instability should limit any severe threat. ..Hart/Kerr.. 01/15/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that highly amplified mid-level troughing will persist across much of North America (to the east of the Rockies) and the Gulf Basin through this coming weekend into early next week, when an initially prominent ridge near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast begins to weaken and perhaps redevelop to the west/northwest. Thereafter, sizable spread remains evident within and among the various model output concerning shorter wavelength developments and blocking within the larger-scale split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and the impacts on the downstream flow remain unclear. In general, it still appears that the Gulf Coast states and Gulf Basin may come under the increasing influence of a strengthening belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, and troughing may tend to dig within the mid-latitude westerlies near and inland of the Pacific coast through mid to late next week. However, even with guidance indicating potential for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by the end of the period, it does not appear that moist return flow off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer will yet become supportive of appreciable inland destabilization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that highly amplified mid-level troughing will persist across much of North America (to the east of the Rockies) and the Gulf Basin through this coming weekend into early next week, when an initially prominent ridge near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast begins to weaken and perhaps redevelop to the west/northwest. Thereafter, sizable spread remains evident within and among the various model output concerning shorter wavelength developments and blocking within the larger-scale split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and the impacts on the downstream flow remain unclear. In general, it still appears that the Gulf Coast states and Gulf Basin may come under the increasing influence of a strengthening belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, and troughing may tend to dig within the mid-latitude westerlies near and inland of the Pacific coast through mid to late next week. However, even with guidance indicating potential for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by the end of the period, it does not appear that moist return flow off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer will yet become supportive of appreciable inland destabilization. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... A stronger mid-level trough will dig into the southern Plains as broader troughing becomes established over the eastern half of the CONUS. A reinforcing cold front will move south into OK/TX early Friday. This will support strong northwesterly gusts over much of the Plains and some fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front moves south temperatures will be cooler, but the coldest air should lag behind the front. With the air mass already dry from the prior frontal intrusion, dry downsloping should result in low RH of 10-20% over much of the Plains. Strong northwesterly winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are likely from western KS into OK/TX. Fuels remain very dry despite light precipitation and cooler temperatures over the preceding days. This should support widespread elevated and some critical fire-weather conditions Friday afternoon. A couple hours of critical conditions appear most likely beneath and just south of the strong 700 mb jet across northern and western OK Friday afternoon. Here, a few gusts to 40+ mph are possible overlapped with fuels in the 90-95th seasonal percentile. ...Central High Plains... Much cooler surface temperatures (30s and 40s F) are expected farther north into KS and eastern CO behind the front. However, very dry conditions, single digit to below zero dewpoints and strong winds of 20-30 mph may still pose a brief locally elevated fire-weather threat where fuels are the most receptive. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... A stronger mid-level trough will dig into the southern Plains as broader troughing becomes established over the eastern half of the CONUS. A reinforcing cold front will move south into OK/TX early Friday. This will support strong northwesterly gusts over much of the Plains and some fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front moves south temperatures will be cooler, but the coldest air should lag behind the front. With the air mass already dry from the prior frontal intrusion, dry downsloping should result in low RH of 10-20% over much of the Plains. Strong northwesterly winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are likely from western KS into OK/TX. Fuels remain very dry despite light precipitation and cooler temperatures over the preceding days. This should support widespread elevated and some critical fire-weather conditions Friday afternoon. A couple hours of critical conditions appear most likely beneath and just south of the strong 700 mb jet across northern and western OK Friday afternoon. Here, a few gusts to 40+ mph are possible overlapped with fuels in the 90-95th seasonal percentile. ...Central High Plains... Much cooler surface temperatures (30s and 40s F) are expected farther north into KS and eastern CO behind the front. However, very dry conditions, single digit to below zero dewpoints and strong winds of 20-30 mph may still pose a brief locally elevated fire-weather threat where fuels are the most receptive. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will continue to deepen over the eastern US as a second trough begins to move out of southern Canada. A strong jet streak and reinforcing cold front will approach from the north bolstering strong surface winds. With dry conditions already in place, the strong winds will likely support increasing fire-weather potential Thursday. ...Central and southern High Plains... As the strong trough moves southeast over the US, lee troughing will promote stronger westerly downslope surface flow over parts of the central High Plains. With a dry air mass in place behind the prior cold font afternoon RH values of 15-25% are expected across parts of southeastern WY into northern CO and western KS/NE. Surface winds of 25-40 mph overlapped with the low humidity will likely favor sustained elevated fire-weather conditions for several hours given very dry fine fuels. A couple of hours of near-critical fire-weather concerns are also possible across the region through the afternoon. The strongest gusts (30-40 mph) will likely not overlap with the lowest humidity, and some light precipitation has tempered the driest fuels. This lower confidence precludes the inclusion of a critical area for now. However, with strong gusts in proximity to RH in the 20-30% range and fuels abnormally dry, brief critical fire-weather conditions are possible. A west/northwesterly flow regime is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle and eastern NM with similar dry/breezy conditions. Lee troughing will promote afternoon winds of 15-20 mph amid RH below 20%. With dry fuels in place, and recent fire activity, several hours of enhanced fire-weather conditions appear probable over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon. ..Southeast... Very dry surface conditions are expected over the Southeast in the wake of the strong frontal passage. Northwest winds of 10-20 mph are likely over portions of southern GA into the carolinas and northern FL. Afternoon RH values will likely be below 30%, before much cooler surface temperatures and light precipitation arrive behind the front. This should mitigate fire-weather concerns to some degree, though localized elevated conditions are possible given the dry state of areas fuels and the overlap with breezy offshore winds. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. A broad upper trough will prevail across most of the CONUS on Saturday, with dry/stable conditions inhibiting thunderstorms in most areas. A few afternoon storms are possible over south FL, but weak CAPE and limited vertical shear should preclude severe storms. ..Hart.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A series of disturbances will move cyclonically through a longwave mid-level trough over eastern North America. Farther west, a mid-level anticyclone will be stationary to the west of the Pacific Northwest coast. A surface ridge will extend southward along the spine of the Rockies/High Plains and cool/stable conditions will prove hostile for thunderstorm development across the Lower 48 states on Friday. ..Smith.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A series of disturbances will move cyclonically through a longwave mid-level trough over eastern North America. Farther west, a mid-level anticyclone will be stationary to the west of the Pacific Northwest coast. A surface ridge will extend southward along the spine of the Rockies/High Plains and cool/stable conditions will prove hostile for thunderstorm development across the Lower 48 states on Friday. ..Smith.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ...South Florida... Midlevel short-wave trough is digging southeast across the northern Gulf basin late this evening. As this feature digs toward the FL Peninsula, strong cold front will surge to near the southern tip of the Peninsula by 18z, then across the straights by late afternoon. Latest radar data exhibits shallow convection across the eastern Gulf basin, but minimal lighting has been noted with this activity. HREF guidance suggests scattered convection will develop along the boundary as it surges southeast, but forecast instability is not particularly noteworthy, and lapse rates will remain poor. Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for thunderstorms continues. While a flash of lightning can not be ruled out, most updrafts will remain too weak/shallow to justify a 10 percent probability of thunder during the day1 period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ...South Florida... Midlevel short-wave trough is digging southeast across the northern Gulf basin late this evening. As this feature digs toward the FL Peninsula, strong cold front will surge to near the southern tip of the Peninsula by 18z, then across the straights by late afternoon. Latest radar data exhibits shallow convection across the eastern Gulf basin, but minimal lighting has been noted with this activity. HREF guidance suggests scattered convection will develop along the boundary as it surges southeast, but forecast instability is not particularly noteworthy, and lapse rates will remain poor. Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for thunderstorms continues. While a flash of lightning can not be ruled out, most updrafts will remain too weak/shallow to justify a 10 percent probability of thunder during the day1 period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/15/2026 Read more

MD 0022 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0022 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Areas affected...Northern Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 142301Z - 150500Z SUMMARY...A lake effect snow band will likely support heavy snowfall rates in excess of 2 inches/hour across portions of northern Indiana through the evening and into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...A lake effect snow band has been steadily organizing over the past couple of hours across far southwest lower MI and northern/northwest IN amid strengthening cold advection on the backside of a passing upper disturbance. Surface observations under the band report quarter-mile visibility with heavy snowfall, and these observations are supported by live web cams in the South Bend, IN area that show significant visibility reductions indicative of heavy snowfall rates. Recent surface observations and 925 mb analyses show a subtle confluence axis established across southeastern Lake Michigan that is forecast to persist and shift to the southwest over the next several hours. Latest forecast soundings depict 6.5 C/km lapse rates and saturated profiles from the surface through roughly 3 km. Additional deepening/saturation of this layer possible as ascent within the left-exit region of an approaching upper jet (currently noted upstream across portions of MN/WI in water-vapor imagery) overspreads the region heading into the evening/overnight hours. Maintenance of a favorable low to mid-level thermodynamic profile, steady low-level confluence, and relatively warm water temperatures (approximately 35-40 F per recent analyses) along the southeastern shore of Lake MI should all contribute to robust lake effect snow band capable of heavy snowfall rates potentially exceeding 2 inch/hour. Strong winds within the lowest few kilometers, gusting to 30-40 mph at times, may support periods of blizzard conditions under the band. ..Moore.. 01/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT... LAT...LON 41638720 41698702 41828675 42008656 42218640 42118627 41518579 41338576 41208584 41038613 40978632 40908658 40908680 40918701 40988722 41098723 41638720 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southwestern Florida coast late tonight. ...01z Update... Deep upper trough is settling across the eastern CONUS early this evening. As heights fall across the northern Gulf basin, surface front is forecast to surge across the central FL Peninsula by 12z. Just ahead of this boundary, low-level moistening is expected into the western portions of the southern Peninsula such that weak buoyancy is expected to develop. Forecast soundings continue to suggest isolated thunderstorms could develop late tonight, but most of this activity should remain offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/15/2026 Read more