Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTENDING ACROSS LOUISIANA TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into the overnight hours over much of eastern Texas, with more isolated activity into Mississippi. A few brief tornadoes may occur from eastern Texas into Louisiana, along with areas of damaging gusts and sporadic large hail. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move from the central and southern Plains today toward the MS Valley overnight, losing amplitude with time. Upper ridging will occur over the East during this time as an upper trough exits the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Mid Atlantic during the day, with southerly winds from the western Gulf of America into TX. A plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will extend as far as North TX by 00Z as a cold front approaches the I-35 corridor. A warm front will extend roughly from the Red River into southern AR at that time, with a continued northward advection of moisture overnight across MS. ...Eastern TX toward the ArkLaMiss... Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing from North TX into eastern OK and western AR through midday, with southerly 40 kt winds at 850 mb aiding moisture transport and lift north of the warm front. Given cool profiles aloft and ample deep-layer effective shear, some of this activity could produce hail at times. To the south, a weak cold front will progress across TX, as boundary layer dewpoints increase. A capping inversion will exist near 700 mb initially, but by early afternoon, the deepening moist layer as well as cooling aloft will reduce inhibition near the front, and, by late afternoon, even ahead of the cold front within the moist axis. Scattered storms are likely to form along the trailing outflow/cold front, and perhaps just east of the cold front primarily after 21Z. Sufficient cross-boundary winds aloft as well as veering winds with height will support scattered supercells. Some of these cells may produce a tornado prior to eventual merging of storms along the front. The most intense cells may also produce large hail, as mid/upper lapse rates will become steep. At least an isolated severe threat may persist as far east as MS overnight, as the warm front continues to move north, with veering wind profiles with height and generally moist conditions supporting a conditional tornado risk. However, the upper trough will continue to weaken and lift north, reducing confidence in storm coverage. ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/24/2025 Read more

MD 2220 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637... FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 2220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0835 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Areas affected...Northwest Texas to the Edwards Plateau Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637... Valid 240235Z - 240430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637 continues. SUMMARY...Sporadic severe hail and wind remains possible across portions of northwest Texas southward into parts of the Edwards Plateau through the late evening hours. DISCUSSION...A pair of strong thunderstorms continues to progress northeastward along and south of the I-20 corridor in west-central Texas. These cells have a history of producing sub-severe hail, but have shown some degree of intensification in lightning trends and cloud-top temperatures over the past 30-45 minutes. Based on recent surface obs and analyses, these cells are likely becoming elevated as they move into a more cool/stable low-level environment. The downstream 00 UTC FWD sounding shows adequate MUCAPE and effective bulk shear to maintain strong, to potentially severe, convection. As such, the relatively greatest near-term severe threat will reside downstream of the ongoing cells where sporadic instances of severe hail, and perhaps damaging winds, will be possible. Back to the south/southwest, isolated convective cells have struggled to intensify, likely owing to lingering capping within the warm sector as sampled by the 00 UTC DRT sounding. Some lifting/erosion of this warm layer is expected as lift associated with the right-entrance region of an upper-level jet overspreads the Edwards Plateau later tonight. Recent CAM guidance suggests that a second round of thunderstorms is possible between 03-07 UTC, though it remains unclear how intense/widespread this convection will be given that 00 UTC HRRR/RRFS solutions have not accurately captured the warmth/strength of the capping layer. Nonetheless, given adequate deep-layer shear an isolated severe threat may still materialize later tonight. For both regions, the overall severe threat is expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude downstream watch issuance of WW 637. ..Moore.. 11/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31010266 31610134 31790097 32090067 32900012 33359981 33609951 33669909 33629887 33429872 32879852 32439859 32139875 30880006 30560057 30400095 30260163 30220215 30220246 30290278 30390295 30630304 30850296 31010266 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W FST TO 40 SE MAF TO 45 E BGS TO 75 ESE LBB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2220 ..MOORE..11/24/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC081-095-105-151-207-235-253-353-371-383-399-413-431-435-441- 443-451-461-240440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COKE CONCHO CROCKETT FISHER HASKELL IRION JONES NOLAN PECOS REAGAN RUNNELS SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 637 SEVERE TSTM TX 232015Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 637 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next few hours from the Permian Basin into the Pecos Valley. Strong vertical shear overlapping modest buoyancy is expected to support initial supercells, with large hail as the primary risk. A few strong gusts and a brief tornado are possible as well. A trend towards a more linear mode is anticipated with time, but the threat for isolated hail and damaging gusts will likely persist through the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northeast of Big Spring TX to 75 miles east southeast of Fort Stockton TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of producing hail and locally strong gusts remains possible tonight over parts of west to west-central Texas. ...Discussion... Gradual cooling aloft will occur tonight as the upper trough moves into the central and southern Plains, with 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies maintaining deep-layer shear. At the surface, an instability axis currently exists over southwest TX, where temperatures are in the 60s with low 60s F dewpoints. While the 00Z DRT sounding was capped, the MAF soundings shows significantly cooler 700 mb temperatures. A few storms are ongoing over the South Plains and into the Pecos Valley, with new echoes developing south of FST. Given southeasterly 925 mb winds and continued cooling aloft, additional development and possibly strengthening is expected overnight. Long hodographs will favor cells producing hail, and a few strong wind gusts may also occur if bowing structures can develop. Overall, instability will be mainly elevated, except over far southern areas. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of producing hail and locally strong gusts remains possible tonight over parts of west to west-central Texas. ...Discussion... Gradual cooling aloft will occur tonight as the upper trough moves into the central and southern Plains, with 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies maintaining deep-layer shear. At the surface, an instability axis currently exists over southwest TX, where temperatures are in the 60s with low 60s F dewpoints. While the 00Z DRT sounding was capped, the MAF soundings shows significantly cooler 700 mb temperatures. A few storms are ongoing over the South Plains and into the Pecos Valley, with new echoes developing south of FST. Given southeasterly 925 mb winds and continued cooling aloft, additional development and possibly strengthening is expected overnight. Long hodographs will favor cells producing hail, and a few strong wind gusts may also occur if bowing structures can develop. Overall, instability will be mainly elevated, except over far southern areas. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook as no broad fire weather concerns are expected today across the CONUS. Please see previous discussion below. ..Williams.. 11/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... There are no fire-weather concerns forecast for Sunday. A lack of dry and windy conditions coupled with cooler temperatures and recent wetting rainfall will mitigate any threat for wildfire ignition and spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 23 16:33:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Nov 23 16:33:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas. ...West TX... Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over AZ, with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms preceding it across central/eastern NM. This low is forecast to continue northeastward throughout the day as a belt of strong mid-level flow pivots through its southern and eastern periphery across the southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains. Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward ahead of this low and associated jet streak and model consensus brings upper 50s dewpoints into the Permian Basin by this evening. This should result in a relatively confined region of surface-based buoyancy across the Permian Basin, which will combined with large-scale ascent and strong shear to support supercells. Primary threat will be large hail, although the anticipated development of surface-based buoyancy does indicate a low-probability threat for strong winds and/or a tornado. Low-level stability will increase quickly with eastward extent, as a result of both nocturnal cooling and generally cooler surface temperatures throughout the day. Even so, enough elevated buoyancy is anticipated for continued strong to occasionally severe storms throughout much of the evening and overnight, particularly in the 03Z-06Z time frame across southwest TX. Hail is the primary risk with these storms. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 11/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas. ...West TX... A large upper low currently over AZ will track northeastward into NM, with a 70+ knot mid-level speed max approaching west TX by this afternoon. Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level winds will help transport 50s dewpoints into much of west TX ahead of a diffuse dryline. Most CAM solutions suggest that scattered thunderstorms will form along this dryline and track northeastward for a few hours. Given the strength of deep-layer shear, supercell structures will be likely with a risk of a large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms should weaken by late evening as they move into a progressively less unstable air mass and diurnal cooling ensues. ..Hart/Broyles.. 11/23/2025 Read more