Storm Prediction Center

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast to develop across the U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated surface low deepens across the Great Lakes. In response, a cold front will move southeastward across the central U.S. This will reinforce cold and dry conditions over most of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected over the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast to develop across the U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated surface low deepens across the Great Lakes. In response, a cold front will move southeastward across the central U.S. This will reinforce cold and dry conditions over most of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected over the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place from the northern Rockies southeastward to the Appalachians on Monday, as a shortwave trough moves southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the south-central and southeastern U.S. keeping dry and cool conditions in place over much of the nation. This will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place from the northern Rockies southeastward to the Appalachians on Monday, as a shortwave trough moves southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the south-central and southeastern U.S. keeping dry and cool conditions in place over much of the nation. This will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place from the northern Rockies southeastward to the Appalachians on Monday, as a shortwave trough moves southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the south-central and southeastern U.S. keeping dry and cool conditions in place over much of the nation. This will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns over the US are negligible Monday. Broad troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high pressure building to the West. This will favor continued Northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. Cooler surface temperatures and recent rainfall should largely preclude fire-weather concerns. The only exception will be stronger downslope winds beneath an advancing shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft over the central High Plains D2/Monday. The dry downsloping will favor warmer and drier surface conditions with no recent precipitation in these areas. Some locally dry/breezy conditions are possible over northern CO, southern WY and western NE atop very dry, albeit seasonally limited fuels. However, cooling surface temps and only transient overlap of stronger winds should preclude more sustained elevated fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns over the US are negligible Monday. Broad troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high pressure building to the West. This will favor continued Northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. Cooler surface temperatures and recent rainfall should largely preclude fire-weather concerns. The only exception will be stronger downslope winds beneath an advancing shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft over the central High Plains D2/Monday. The dry downsloping will favor warmer and drier surface conditions with no recent precipitation in these areas. Some locally dry/breezy conditions are possible over northern CO, southern WY and western NE atop very dry, albeit seasonally limited fuels. However, cooling surface temps and only transient overlap of stronger winds should preclude more sustained elevated fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns over the US are negligible Monday. Broad troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high pressure building to the West. This will favor continued Northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. Cooler surface temperatures and recent rainfall should largely preclude fire-weather concerns. The only exception will be stronger downslope winds beneath an advancing shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft over the central High Plains D2/Monday. The dry downsloping will favor warmer and drier surface conditions with no recent precipitation in these areas. Some locally dry/breezy conditions are possible over northern CO, southern WY and western NE atop very dry, albeit seasonally limited fuels. However, cooling surface temps and only transient overlap of stronger winds should preclude more sustained elevated fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough over the eastern Great Lakes will rapidly intensify as it moves southeastward and offshore over the eastern US today and tonight. A 100+ kt mid-level jet south of the trough will eject over the Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move offshore while strong high pressure builds over the interior CONUS. This will support gusty downslope winds over parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... As the upper trough moves offshore, strong west/northwest downslope winds will develop behind the surface cold front in the lee of the Appalachians. Sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20 mph, the downslope trajectories and rapid drying should allow for widespread RH below 30% across the Piedmont and coastal plains. Given the favorable overlap of dry conditions, gusty winds and no rainfall, a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough over the eastern Great Lakes will rapidly intensify as it moves southeastward and offshore over the eastern US today and tonight. A 100+ kt mid-level jet south of the trough will eject over the Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move offshore while strong high pressure builds over the interior CONUS. This will support gusty downslope winds over parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... As the upper trough moves offshore, strong west/northwest downslope winds will develop behind the surface cold front in the lee of the Appalachians. Sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20 mph, the downslope trajectories and rapid drying should allow for widespread RH below 30% across the Piedmont and coastal plains. Given the favorable overlap of dry conditions, gusty winds and no rainfall, a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough over the eastern Great Lakes will rapidly intensify as it moves southeastward and offshore over the eastern US today and tonight. A 100+ kt mid-level jet south of the trough will eject over the Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move offshore while strong high pressure builds over the interior CONUS. This will support gusty downslope winds over parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... As the upper trough moves offshore, strong west/northwest downslope winds will develop behind the surface cold front in the lee of the Appalachians. Sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20 mph, the downslope trajectories and rapid drying should allow for widespread RH below 30% across the Piedmont and coastal plains. Given the favorable overlap of dry conditions, gusty winds and no rainfall, a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A cold front will shift south across the FL Peninsula, and well into the Gulf today. In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture and cool/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A cold front will shift south across the FL Peninsula, and well into the Gulf today. In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture and cool/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A cold front will shift south across the FL Peninsula, and well into the Gulf today. In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture and cool/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A cold front will shift south across the FL Peninsula, and well into the Gulf today. In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture and cool/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected through Sunday morning. ...01z Update... A surface cold front will continue to scoot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through early Sunday. Thunderstorm potential has largely waned ahead of the front as upper forcing weakens and any modest instability remains offshore over the eastern Gulf and/or over the Gulf Stream. As a result, the general thunderstorm area has been removed across the Southeast. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected through Sunday morning. ...01z Update... A surface cold front will continue to scoot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through early Sunday. Thunderstorm potential has largely waned ahead of the front as upper forcing weakens and any modest instability remains offshore over the eastern Gulf and/or over the Gulf Stream. As a result, the general thunderstorm area has been removed across the Southeast. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 10 22:09:01 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 10 22:09:01 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper ridge over the western U.S. will support increasing temperatures and dry conditions through midweek. A residual dry, post-frontal air mass will remain across the Southeast through Day 4/Tuesday, but overall winds should remain light. An upper-level low moving from Baja California into Southwest TX could usher in deeper Pacific moisture and rainfall into portions of Southwest TX and the Rio Grande Valley on Day 4/Tuesday. A potent upper trough and accompanying surface cold front should move through the central/eastern CONUS Day 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday, with some potential to bring fire weather concerns back into the central/southern Plains on Wednesday. ...Day 3-4/Monday-Tuesday - Central High Plains... A subtle mid-level short wave within broad northwesterly flow should pass over the Southern Rockies on Day 3/Monday supporting enhanced downslope winds across northeastern CO, southeastern WY and the NE Panhandle. An intensifying mid-level jet over the northern High Plains will similarly promote breezy northwest winds across the same, snow-free region on Day 4/Tuesday. However, limited RH reductions could mitigate a larger fire weather concern. ...Day 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday - Central/Southern Plains A strong, dry cold front moving through the central and southern Plains should bring gusty north winds and conditional fire weather concerns back into portions of TX on Day 5/Wednesday. Pacific moisture and precipitation associated with an upper-level low currently near Baja California could mitigate fire weather impacts across much of southwest TX and the Rio Grande Valley on Day 4/Tuesday, preceding the passage of the cold front on Day 5/Wednesday. 40% critical probabilities were introduced across portions of north-central TX where minimal rainfall is expected amid receptive/dormant fuels. Potential for an impactful dry return flow event is possible on Day 6/Thursday across the Southern Plains, but considerable timing/spatial uncertainty exists with the next surface cold front entering the central U.S. Therefore, critical probabilities were withheld for Thursday. ..Williams.. 01/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more