Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe storms are likely across parts of the Southeast/Deep South this morning into the early evening hours. A couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and Alabama. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weakening upper wave over east TX/LA translating to the east/northeast with a more compact, amplifying upper disturbance moving into the northern High Plains. Further de-amplification of the southern wave is anticipated over the next 24 hours as it lifts into the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. As this occurs, a weak surface low (analyzed over the mid-MS Valley as of 05 UTC) will gradually lift to the northeast with a trailing cold front extending from the TN Valley to the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid-afternoon along this boundary across portions of eastern MS, AL, and into the southern Appalachians. While buoyancy will remain somewhat modest, strong wind shear over the region will support the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. ...Southeast... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing by 12 UTC across portions of central MS and northwest AL as remnants from overnight convection begin to weaken in tandem with the early-morning maximum in inhibition. Some re-intensification of this activity is possible by late morning across northeast MS/northern AL as diurnal heating increases, but confidence in the coverage/intensity is uncertain. 30-40 knot south/southwesterly flow in the 1-2 km layer will continue to advect seasonally warm/moist air northward into central and northeast AL by mid-afternoon. This will allow for adequate destabilization within the warm sector for thunderstorm development as a weak cold front begins to advance from the west. The combination of strong, along-boundary deep-layer wind shear and weak forcing for ascent will favor a broken line of cells/clusters by mid-afternoon. The strong low-level winds will support a damaging wind threat with any strong thunderstorm, and favorable low-level helicity (especially late morning through early afternoon) will support a tornado threat with the more intense/isolated supercells. Through late afternoon, low-level winds veering to the southwest may modulate the tornado threat to some degree, but damaging winds and isolated large hail will remain possible. In general, the overall ensemble signal for intense convection is comparatively weaker compared to previous days, suggesting that the severe threat may be somewhat more limited. Nonetheless, Slight-risk probabilities were maintained for portions of southeast MS through east-central AL where strong/severe storms appear most likely. ..Moore/Jewell.. 11/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0852 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 11/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today. Widespread rainfall across the southern CONUS will limited fuel status across a broad swath of the country where fuels had been previously dry in recent days. Further north, an intensifying cyclone over the northern High Plains will likely support strong westerly downslope winds across portions of MT and WY. However, an influx of cold air along with considerable cloud cover will limit RH reductions. Dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southeast, but weak winds should mitigate widespread fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 24 14:55:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Nov 24 14:55:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into the overnight hours from east Texas into central/southern Mississippi. ...TX/LA/MS... A large upper trough is moving eastward across the southern Plains this morning, with an associated 60-70 knot mid level jet expected to track into AR by evening. At the surface, a warm front currently extends from southeast TX to just off the LA coast. This boundary will lift northward through the day, with a moist and moderately unstable air mass spreading inland. A combination of diurnal destabilization and the approaching upper trough will lead to convective intensification by early afternoon over east TX. These initial storms will pose a risk of large hail and perhaps some gusty winds and a tornado or two. As the activity spreads eastward after dark, rather strong low-level shear profiles in vicinity of the warm front will maintain a risk of severe storms through much of the night across central LA and southern MS. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ..Hart/Broyles.. 11/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough across the Tennessee Valley will dampen through the period as it advances into the western Atlantic after 00Z. A trough across the northern Plains will amplify through the period as it advances into the Upper Midwest and develops a closed upper low. A surface low will develop near Wisconsin/Lake Michigan and deepen through the day and into Tuesday night. As it deepens, a surface cold front will sharpen and accelerate east from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Deep South... A strong low-level jet will extend from northern MS/AL to southern Ohio Tuesday morning and will quickly move northeast through the day. This will result in weaker, more veered flow across the warm sector during the afternoon. Rising heights in the wake of the morning mid-level shortwave trough and weak convergence along the front may mitigate severe storm potential during much of the day, despite weak to moderate instability and moderate shear across much of the uncapped warm sector. However, scattered storms, some which could be strong, are expected along and ahead of the frontal zone during the afternoon and early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but some isolated large hail may also occur across portions of MS/AL where greater instability is forecast. Overall, stronger forcing amid falling heights aloft and greater convergence along the cold front, is anticipated Tuesday night. However, weaker instability should mitigate the overall severe weather threat. A few stronger storms are possible after 06Z across the FL Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia where upper 60s dewpoints off the Gulf should be sufficient for moderate instability, even during the early morning hours. However, even if a few supercells can form during this period, severe potential may be somewhat limited given only modest mid-level lapse rates and weak low-level flow. ..Bentley.. 11/24/2025 Read more

MD 2221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Areas affected...West-central and Southwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 240643Z - 240915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat may continue into the overnight period across parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Weather watch issuance will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows several small thunderstorm clusters extending from north-central Texas southwestward toward the Big Bend. The strongest thunderstorms are located along a surface trough in southwest Texas along an axis of moisture and instability. Within this airmass, the RAP shows MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Storm coverage is expected to continue as low-level flow and large-scale ascent both gradually increase. The latest WSR-88D VWP at San Angelo has 0-6 km shear near 55 knots with some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This environment may support rotation within the strongest storms, and isolated supercells with large hail will be possible. RAP forecast soundings at San Angelo have poor mid-level lapse rates suggesting any hail threat should be marginal overnight. ..Broyles/Hart.. 11/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 32100067 31330170 30840225 30410219 30320181 30310060 30579960 30939896 31539840 31919822 32249828 32409848 32559912 32499978 32100067 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will continue to be limited for Tuesday despite widespread strong winds across the Plains. A surface cyclone is forecast to develop today across the northern High Plains followed by a period of steady intensification through Tuesday evening as it shifts into the upper MS Valley/Midwest. Strong northwesterly winds are expected to spread across much of the central Plains behind an attendant cold front. Latest forecast guidance suggests widespread winds of 15-25 mph (gusting to 35 mph) are likely; however, an influx of continental air should modulate RH reductions for most locations. Furthermore, the spatial extent of dry fuels across NE into KS (where winds should be strongest) appears limited due to rainfall over the past 72 hours. ..Moore.. 11/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today. Widespread rainfall across the southern CONUS will limited fuel status across a broad swath of the country where fuels had been previously dry in recent days. Further north, an intensifying cyclone over the northern High Plains will likely support strong westerly downslope winds across portions of MT and WY. However, an influx of cold air along with considerable cloud cover will limit RH reductions. Dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southeast, but weak winds should mitigate widespread fire concerns. ..Moore.. 11/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTENDING ACROSS LOUISIANA TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into the overnight hours over much of eastern Texas, with more isolated activity into Mississippi. A few brief tornadoes may occur from eastern Texas into Louisiana, along with areas of damaging gusts and sporadic large hail. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move from the central and southern Plains today toward the MS Valley overnight, losing amplitude with time. Upper ridging will occur over the East during this time as an upper trough exits the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Mid Atlantic during the day, with southerly winds from the western Gulf of America into TX. A plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will extend as far as North TX by 00Z as a cold front approaches the I-35 corridor. A warm front will extend roughly from the Red River into southern AR at that time, with a continued northward advection of moisture overnight across MS. ...Eastern TX toward the ArkLaMiss... Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing from North TX into eastern OK and western AR through midday, with southerly 40 kt winds at 850 mb aiding moisture transport and lift north of the warm front. Given cool profiles aloft and ample deep-layer effective shear, some of this activity could produce hail at times. To the south, a weak cold front will progress across TX, as boundary layer dewpoints increase. A capping inversion will exist near 700 mb initially, but by early afternoon, the deepening moist layer as well as cooling aloft will reduce inhibition near the front, and, by late afternoon, even ahead of the cold front within the moist axis. Scattered storms are likely to form along the trailing outflow/cold front, and perhaps just east of the cold front primarily after 21Z. Sufficient cross-boundary winds aloft as well as veering winds with height will support scattered supercells. Some of these cells may produce a tornado prior to eventual merging of storms along the front. The most intense cells may also produce large hail, as mid/upper lapse rates will become steep. At least an isolated severe threat may persist as far east as MS overnight, as the warm front continues to move north, with veering wind profiles with height and generally moist conditions supporting a conditional tornado risk. However, the upper trough will continue to weaken and lift north, reducing confidence in storm coverage. ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/24/2025 Read more

MD 2220 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637... FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 2220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0835 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Areas affected...Northwest Texas to the Edwards Plateau Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637... Valid 240235Z - 240430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637 continues. SUMMARY...Sporadic severe hail and wind remains possible across portions of northwest Texas southward into parts of the Edwards Plateau through the late evening hours. DISCUSSION...A pair of strong thunderstorms continues to progress northeastward along and south of the I-20 corridor in west-central Texas. These cells have a history of producing sub-severe hail, but have shown some degree of intensification in lightning trends and cloud-top temperatures over the past 30-45 minutes. Based on recent surface obs and analyses, these cells are likely becoming elevated as they move into a more cool/stable low-level environment. The downstream 00 UTC FWD sounding shows adequate MUCAPE and effective bulk shear to maintain strong, to potentially severe, convection. As such, the relatively greatest near-term severe threat will reside downstream of the ongoing cells where sporadic instances of severe hail, and perhaps damaging winds, will be possible. Back to the south/southwest, isolated convective cells have struggled to intensify, likely owing to lingering capping within the warm sector as sampled by the 00 UTC DRT sounding. Some lifting/erosion of this warm layer is expected as lift associated with the right-entrance region of an upper-level jet overspreads the Edwards Plateau later tonight. Recent CAM guidance suggests that a second round of thunderstorms is possible between 03-07 UTC, though it remains unclear how intense/widespread this convection will be given that 00 UTC HRRR/RRFS solutions have not accurately captured the warmth/strength of the capping layer. Nonetheless, given adequate deep-layer shear an isolated severe threat may still materialize later tonight. For both regions, the overall severe threat is expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude downstream watch issuance of WW 637. ..Moore.. 11/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31010266 31610134 31790097 32090067 32900012 33359981 33609951 33669909 33629887 33429872 32879852 32439859 32139875 30880006 30560057 30400095 30260163 30220215 30220246 30290278 30390295 30630304 30850296 31010266 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W FST TO 40 SE MAF TO 45 E BGS TO 75 ESE LBB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2220 ..MOORE..11/24/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC081-095-105-151-207-235-253-353-371-383-399-413-431-435-441- 443-451-461-240440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COKE CONCHO CROCKETT FISHER HASKELL IRION JONES NOLAN PECOS REAGAN RUNNELS SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 637 SEVERE TSTM TX 232015Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 637 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next few hours from the Permian Basin into the Pecos Valley. Strong vertical shear overlapping modest buoyancy is expected to support initial supercells, with large hail as the primary risk. A few strong gusts and a brief tornado are possible as well. A trend towards a more linear mode is anticipated with time, but the threat for isolated hail and damaging gusts will likely persist through the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northeast of Big Spring TX to 75 miles east southeast of Fort Stockton TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of producing hail and locally strong gusts remains possible tonight over parts of west to west-central Texas. ...Discussion... Gradual cooling aloft will occur tonight as the upper trough moves into the central and southern Plains, with 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies maintaining deep-layer shear. At the surface, an instability axis currently exists over southwest TX, where temperatures are in the 60s with low 60s F dewpoints. While the 00Z DRT sounding was capped, the MAF soundings shows significantly cooler 700 mb temperatures. A few storms are ongoing over the South Plains and into the Pecos Valley, with new echoes developing south of FST. Given southeasterly 925 mb winds and continued cooling aloft, additional development and possibly strengthening is expected overnight. Long hodographs will favor cells producing hail, and a few strong wind gusts may also occur if bowing structures can develop. Overall, instability will be mainly elevated, except over far southern areas. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of producing hail and locally strong gusts remains possible tonight over parts of west to west-central Texas. ...Discussion... Gradual cooling aloft will occur tonight as the upper trough moves into the central and southern Plains, with 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies maintaining deep-layer shear. At the surface, an instability axis currently exists over southwest TX, where temperatures are in the 60s with low 60s F dewpoints. While the 00Z DRT sounding was capped, the MAF soundings shows significantly cooler 700 mb temperatures. A few storms are ongoing over the South Plains and into the Pecos Valley, with new echoes developing south of FST. Given southeasterly 925 mb winds and continued cooling aloft, additional development and possibly strengthening is expected overnight. Long hodographs will favor cells producing hail, and a few strong wind gusts may also occur if bowing structures can develop. Overall, instability will be mainly elevated, except over far southern areas. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook as no broad fire weather concerns are expected today across the CONUS. Please see previous discussion below. ..Williams.. 11/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... There are no fire-weather concerns forecast for Sunday. A lack of dry and windy conditions coupled with cooler temperatures and recent wetting rainfall will mitigate any threat for wildfire ignition and spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 23 16:33:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Nov 23 16:33:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas. ...West TX... Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over AZ, with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms preceding it across central/eastern NM. This low is forecast to continue northeastward throughout the day as a belt of strong mid-level flow pivots through its southern and eastern periphery across the southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains. Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward ahead of this low and associated jet streak and model consensus brings upper 50s dewpoints into the Permian Basin by this evening. This should result in a relatively confined region of surface-based buoyancy across the Permian Basin, which will combined with large-scale ascent and strong shear to support supercells. Primary threat will be large hail, although the anticipated development of surface-based buoyancy does indicate a low-probability threat for strong winds and/or a tornado. Low-level stability will increase quickly with eastward extent, as a result of both nocturnal cooling and generally cooler surface temperatures throughout the day. Even so, enough elevated buoyancy is anticipated for continued strong to occasionally severe storms throughout much of the evening and overnight, particularly in the 03Z-06Z time frame across southwest TX. Hail is the primary risk with these storms. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 11/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas. ...West TX... A large upper low currently over AZ will track northeastward into NM, with a 70+ knot mid-level speed max approaching west TX by this afternoon. Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level winds will help transport 50s dewpoints into much of west TX ahead of a diffuse dryline. Most CAM solutions suggest that scattered thunderstorms will form along this dryline and track northeastward for a few hours. Given the strength of deep-layer shear, supercell structures will be likely with a risk of a large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms should weaken by late evening as they move into a progressively less unstable air mass and diurnal cooling ensues. ..Hart/Broyles.. 11/23/2025 Read more