Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 11/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country despite very strong winds across much of the central Plains. 06 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across the northern High Plains associated with a developing cyclone. This low will undergo rapid intensification over the next 24 hours as it shifts east towards the Midwest. Strong, 20-30 mph northwesterly winds will overspread much of the central and southern Plains through late afternoon as an attendant cold front pushes southeast. Despite the strong winds, an influx of cold air will limit RH reductions to 35-50% over the windiest areas. This, coupled with unreceptive fuels after recent rainfall, will limit fire weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...MS/AL/GA through late evening... A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the upper MS Valley. An associated/weak surface cold front will move southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from east central MS into central AL. Low-level recovery into northeast AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which is uncertain. Along and south of this boundary, that is being loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for a couple of supercells. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP) through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this evening. A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail will be possible this afternoon into this evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 11/25/2025 Read more

WW 0640 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 640 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ESF TO 70 NE HEZ TO 40 SE GWO. ..DEAN..11/25/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 640 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC023-029-049-061-065-069-075-077-079-085-089-099-101-121-123- 127-129-251040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE COPIAH HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN MADISON NESHOBA NEWTON RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 640 TORNADO LA MS 250440Z - 251200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 640 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Northeastern Louisiana Western/Central Mississippi * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1040 PM until 600 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across northern LA towards western/southwestern MS. A strongly sheared and modestly buoyant environment precedes this line from far northeastern LA into western and central MS. These environmental conditions support a risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts within any stronger storms embedded within the broader convective line. A few thunderstorms could also develop ahead of the line, with the threat for a brief tornado and/or strong gusts accompanying these storms as well. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Natchez MS to 100 miles east northeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 639... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorm potential should be limited during the day on D4/Friday with high pressure and a dry, continental polar airmass across much of the country. By Friday night, return flow across Texas will strengthen as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet develops. This may result in some weak elevated thunderstorms late Friday night and early Saturday. ...D5/Sat to D8/Tue... Severe thunderstorms may be possible from the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast this weekend and into early next week. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints are expected either onshore or close to onshore by this weekend. However, evolution of the mid-level pattern remains quite uncertain. This mid-level pattern will largely dictate the timing and inland penetration of richer low-level moisture and instability. Therefore, broad severe weather potential exists Saturday to Tuesday, but more specific timing or intensity information is not available at his time due to the large uncertainties. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on Thursday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... A large, expansive mid-level ridge will be present across the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Offshore flow will be present across the entire eastern half of the CONUS as high pressure builds into the Plains. This high pressure will expand a dry, continental polar airmass which should keep any thunderstorm chances limited. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front across Florida, but weak instability and modest lapse rates should keep any severe storm threat limited. Significant temperature differences between the Great Lakes and the cold airmass aloft should result in some instability in the Great Lakes. Deeper convection that can develop over the lakes with some graupel could result in a few lightning flashes given an EL around -20C. However, given the mostly below freezing temperature profile, the likelihood of mixed-phase elements remains uncertain and a general thunderstorm line has not been included at this time. ..Bentley.. 11/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected for Wednesday. A strong cyclone that is currently developing over the northern High Plains is expected to move into the Great Lakes region by late Wednesday. This will support a broad swath of 15-25 mph across the Midwest and OH Valley, but recent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire concerns. Across southern California, a weak to moderate offshore pressure gradient is expected to gradually become established through Wednesday into early Thursday. While some areas may see winds increase to 15-20 mph, widespread recent rainfall has largely mitigated fuel concerns at this time. ..Moore.. 11/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country despite very strong winds across much of the central Plains. 06 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across the northern High Plains associated with a developing cyclone. This low will undergo rapid intensification over the next 24 hours as it shifts east towards the Midwest. Strong, 20-30 mph northwesterly winds will overspread much of the central and southern Plains through late afternoon as an attendant cold front pushes southeast. Despite the strong winds, an influx of cold air will limit RH reductions to 35-50% over the windiest areas. This, coupled with unreceptive fuels after recent rainfall, will limit fire weather potential. ..Moore.. 11/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet streak will move along the southern extent of this trough from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. A surface low will move from Lake Superior to western Quebec during the forecast period. An occluded front will extend east from this surface low to a cold front which will start the day near the Appalachians and move mostly into the western Atlantic by 00Z. Some surface heating is forecast ahead of the cold front from southeast Georgia to the Carolinas Wednesday morning and early afternoon. While this will lead to some weak destabilization, relatively warm 850-700mb temperatures should limit the overall threat despite strong shear and long hodographs across the region. ..Bentley.. 11/25/2025 Read more

WW 0639 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 639 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS TO 45 SSE LFK TO 30 NW POE TO 20 ESE IER TO 40 N ESF. ..DEAN..11/25/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 639 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-009-011-039-059-069-079-115-250740- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD EVANGELINE LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES VERNON TXC199-241-245-351-361-457-250740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON NEWTON ORANGE TYLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 639 TORNADO LA TX CW 250035Z - 250700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 639 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 635 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and Central Louisiana East-central and Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 635 PM until 100 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms currently extends from northwest LA through southeast TX to the Middle TX Coastal Plain. Airmass ahead of these storms remains moist and unstable, with some increase in southerly low-level winds expected over the next few hours. Resulting environmental conditions will support a continued risk for supercells embedded within the line, as well as the potential for a few discrete cells ahead of the line. There is enough low-level shear present for a tornado risk to accompany these supercells, with damaging gusts possible within the line as well. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Houston TX to 50 miles east northeast of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 638... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe storms are likely across parts of the Southeast/Deep South this morning into the early evening hours. A couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and Alabama. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weakening upper wave over east TX/LA translating to the east/northeast with a more compact, amplifying upper disturbance moving into the northern High Plains. Further de-amplification of the southern wave is anticipated over the next 24 hours as it lifts into the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. As this occurs, a weak surface low (analyzed over the mid-MS Valley as of 05 UTC) will gradually lift to the northeast with a trailing cold front extending from the TN Valley to the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid-afternoon along this boundary across portions of eastern MS, AL, and into the southern Appalachians. While buoyancy will remain somewhat modest, strong wind shear over the region will support the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. ...Southeast... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing by 12 UTC across portions of central MS and northwest AL as remnants from overnight convection begin to weaken in tandem with the early-morning maximum in inhibition. Some re-intensification of this activity is possible by late morning across northeast MS/northern AL as diurnal heating increases, but confidence in the coverage/intensity is uncertain. 30-40 knot south/southwesterly flow in the 1-2 km layer will continue to advect seasonally warm/moist air northward into central and northeast AL by mid-afternoon. This will allow for adequate destabilization within the warm sector for thunderstorm development as a weak cold front begins to advance from the west. The combination of strong, along-boundary deep-layer wind shear and weak forcing for ascent will favor a broken line of cells/clusters by mid-afternoon. The strong low-level winds will support a damaging wind threat with any strong thunderstorm, and favorable low-level helicity (especially late morning through early afternoon) will support a tornado threat with the more intense/isolated supercells. Through late afternoon, low-level winds veering to the southwest may modulate the tornado threat to some degree, but damaging winds and isolated large hail will remain possible. In general, the overall ensemble signal for intense convection is comparatively weaker compared to previous days, suggesting that the severe threat may be somewhat more limited. Nonetheless, Slight-risk probabilities were maintained for portions of southeast MS through east-central AL where strong/severe storms appear most likely. ..Moore/Jewell.. 11/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0852 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 11/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today. Widespread rainfall across the southern CONUS will limited fuel status across a broad swath of the country where fuels had been previously dry in recent days. Further north, an intensifying cyclone over the northern High Plains will likely support strong westerly downslope winds across portions of MT and WY. However, an influx of cold air along with considerable cloud cover will limit RH reductions. Dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southeast, but weak winds should mitigate widespread fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 24 14:55:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Nov 24 14:55:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into the overnight hours from east Texas into central/southern Mississippi. ...TX/LA/MS... A large upper trough is moving eastward across the southern Plains this morning, with an associated 60-70 knot mid level jet expected to track into AR by evening. At the surface, a warm front currently extends from southeast TX to just off the LA coast. This boundary will lift northward through the day, with a moist and moderately unstable air mass spreading inland. A combination of diurnal destabilization and the approaching upper trough will lead to convective intensification by early afternoon over east TX. These initial storms will pose a risk of large hail and perhaps some gusty winds and a tornado or two. As the activity spreads eastward after dark, rather strong low-level shear profiles in vicinity of the warm front will maintain a risk of severe storms through much of the night across central LA and southern MS. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ..Hart/Broyles.. 11/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough across the Tennessee Valley will dampen through the period as it advances into the western Atlantic after 00Z. A trough across the northern Plains will amplify through the period as it advances into the Upper Midwest and develops a closed upper low. A surface low will develop near Wisconsin/Lake Michigan and deepen through the day and into Tuesday night. As it deepens, a surface cold front will sharpen and accelerate east from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Deep South... A strong low-level jet will extend from northern MS/AL to southern Ohio Tuesday morning and will quickly move northeast through the day. This will result in weaker, more veered flow across the warm sector during the afternoon. Rising heights in the wake of the morning mid-level shortwave trough and weak convergence along the front may mitigate severe storm potential during much of the day, despite weak to moderate instability and moderate shear across much of the uncapped warm sector. However, scattered storms, some which could be strong, are expected along and ahead of the frontal zone during the afternoon and early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but some isolated large hail may also occur across portions of MS/AL where greater instability is forecast. Overall, stronger forcing amid falling heights aloft and greater convergence along the cold front, is anticipated Tuesday night. However, weaker instability should mitigate the overall severe weather threat. A few stronger storms are possible after 06Z across the FL Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia where upper 60s dewpoints off the Gulf should be sufficient for moderate instability, even during the early morning hours. However, even if a few supercells can form during this period, severe potential may be somewhat limited given only modest mid-level lapse rates and weak low-level flow. ..Bentley.. 11/24/2025 Read more

MD 2221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Areas affected...West-central and Southwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 240643Z - 240915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat may continue into the overnight period across parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Weather watch issuance will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows several small thunderstorm clusters extending from north-central Texas southwestward toward the Big Bend. The strongest thunderstorms are located along a surface trough in southwest Texas along an axis of moisture and instability. Within this airmass, the RAP shows MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Storm coverage is expected to continue as low-level flow and large-scale ascent both gradually increase. The latest WSR-88D VWP at San Angelo has 0-6 km shear near 55 knots with some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This environment may support rotation within the strongest storms, and isolated supercells with large hail will be possible. RAP forecast soundings at San Angelo have poor mid-level lapse rates suggesting any hail threat should be marginal overnight. ..Broyles/Hart.. 11/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 32100067 31330170 30840225 30410219 30320181 30310060 30579960 30939896 31539840 31919822 32249828 32409848 32559912 32499978 32100067 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will continue to be limited for Tuesday despite widespread strong winds across the Plains. A surface cyclone is forecast to develop today across the northern High Plains followed by a period of steady intensification through Tuesday evening as it shifts into the upper MS Valley/Midwest. Strong northwesterly winds are expected to spread across much of the central Plains behind an attendant cold front. Latest forecast guidance suggests widespread winds of 15-25 mph (gusting to 35 mph) are likely; however, an influx of continental air should modulate RH reductions for most locations. Furthermore, the spatial extent of dry fuels across NE into KS (where winds should be strongest) appears limited due to rainfall over the past 72 hours. ..Moore.. 11/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today. Widespread rainfall across the southern CONUS will limited fuel status across a broad swath of the country where fuels had been previously dry in recent days. Further north, an intensifying cyclone over the northern High Plains will likely support strong westerly downslope winds across portions of MT and WY. However, an influx of cold air along with considerable cloud cover will limit RH reductions. Dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southeast, but weak winds should mitigate widespread fire concerns. ..Moore.. 11/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more