SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid/upper ridging may rebuild offshore of the
British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, while being maintained
across and inland of coastal areas through this period. Downstream
flow may not change appreciably on the larger-scale, but one broad
embedded cyclonic circulation may redevelop southeast of the
Hudson/James Bay vicinity through central Quebec, while a
consolidating perturbation within another stream digs across the
central/southern Great Plains toward the Southeast.
The latter feature is forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing
cold intrusion across the Gulf coast into northwest Gulf Basin by
late Sunday night. Downstream, a weak low may begin to develop
along the initially stalled/slow moving frontal zone, east of the
Florida Peninsula.
...Florida...
Forecast soundings indicate that relatively warm layers aloft will
continue to hinder potential for deep convective development over
the interior central and southern peninsula Sunday through Sunday
night. In general, guidance suggests that better coupling of
mid/upper forcing for ascent and higher boundary-layer moisture
content may be confined to areas along/ahead of the front across the
northeastern into central Gulf Basin and offshore western Atlantic.
..Kerr.. 12/05/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Aside from a possible isolated weak thunderstorm or two across parts
of the central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears
negligible across much of the nation Saturday through Saturday
night.
...Discussion...
Models indicate little change to the large-scale pattern across much
of North America through this period. Downstream of lingering
mid/upper ridging just inland of the Pacific coast, flow will
continue to split into broad troughing centered within one branch,
across Hudson Bay through portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast,
and another, across the central/southern Great Plains through
Southeast. Weak, positively-tilted troughing is also forecast to
linger across and southwest of southern Baja, between an
increasingly suppressed high over the southern mid-latitude to
subtropical eastern Pacific and ridging across the Caribbean through
western subtropical Atlantic.
In lower levels, the primary surface front may advance a bit farther
offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into the central
Florida Peninsula, but models suggest it will stall across the
northwestern Gulf Basin and perhaps redevelop northward toward
northeastern Gulf coastal areas Saturday night.
...Northeastern Gulf coast/Florida Peninsula...
Low-level moistening and insolation may contribute to boundary-layer
destabilization in a corridor near/just ahead of the front across
the central Florida Peninsula during the day Saturday. While this
could become supportive of at least attempts at deepening convective
development by late Saturday afternoon, relatively warm mid-level
temperatures and weak mid/upper forcing for ascent seem likely to
limit thunderstorm development to perhaps a weak thunderstorm or
two.
Better potential for thunderstorms may develop by late Saturday
night across the northeastern Gulf, aided by forcing for ascent
downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the southern Great
Plains, perhaps preceded by a perturbation emerging from the
subtropics. This might include convection rooted with lift
associated with lower/mid-troposphere warm advection, as far north
as coastal southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Big Bend vicinity.
..Kerr.. 12/05/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Aside from a possible isolated weak thunderstorm or two across parts
of the central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears
negligible across much of the nation Saturday through Saturday
night.
...Discussion...
Models indicate little change to the large-scale pattern across much
of North America through this period. Downstream of lingering
mid/upper ridging just inland of the Pacific coast, flow will
continue to split into broad troughing centered within one branch,
across Hudson Bay through portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast,
and another, across the central/southern Great Plains through
Southeast. Weak, positively-tilted troughing is also forecast to
linger across and southwest of southern Baja, between an
increasingly suppressed high over the southern mid-latitude to
subtropical eastern Pacific and ridging across the Caribbean through
western subtropical Atlantic.
In lower levels, the primary surface front may advance a bit farther
offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into the central
Florida Peninsula, but models suggest it will stall across the
northwestern Gulf Basin and perhaps redevelop northward toward
northeastern Gulf coastal areas Saturday night.
...Northeastern Gulf coast/Florida Peninsula...
Low-level moistening and insolation may contribute to boundary-layer
destabilization in a corridor near/just ahead of the front across
the central Florida Peninsula during the day Saturday. While this
could become supportive of at least attempts at deepening convective
development by late Saturday afternoon, relatively warm mid-level
temperatures and weak mid/upper forcing for ascent seem likely to
limit thunderstorm development to perhaps a weak thunderstorm or
two.
Better potential for thunderstorms may develop by late Saturday
night across the northeastern Gulf, aided by forcing for ascent
downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the southern Great
Plains, perhaps preceded by a perturbation emerging from the
subtropics. This might include convection rooted with lift
associated with lower/mid-troposphere warm advection, as far north
as coastal southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Big Bend vicinity.
..Kerr.. 12/05/2025
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Saturday.
Strengthening westerly flow aloft will overspread the
northern/central Rockies as the next mid-level wave shifts out of
the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A stronger lee
cyclone is progged to develop across the central Plains. This will
likely develop areas of overlap of dry/windy conditions across the
southern High Plains. However, a lack of receptive fuels with recent
wet/cool conditions precludes the need to include any areas.
..Thornton.. 12/05/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Saturday.
Strengthening westerly flow aloft will overspread the
northern/central Rockies as the next mid-level wave shifts out of
the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A stronger lee
cyclone is progged to develop across the central Plains. This will
likely develop areas of overlap of dry/windy conditions across the
southern High Plains. However, a lack of receptive fuels with recent
wet/cool conditions precludes the need to include any areas.
..Thornton.. 12/05/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. A period of westerly downslope flow can be expected across
eastern New Mexico into western Texas as a weak lee-side low
develops. Some overlap of relative humidity reductions around 15-20
percent will be possible for a couple of hours in the afternoon.
However, recent cool and wet conditions across the southern High
Plains have improved status of fuels and will mitigate any
widespread fire weather concerns.
..Thornton.. 12/05/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. A period of westerly downslope flow can be expected across
eastern New Mexico into western Texas as a weak lee-side low
develops. Some overlap of relative humidity reductions around 15-20
percent will be possible for a couple of hours in the afternoon.
However, recent cool and wet conditions across the southern High
Plains have improved status of fuels and will mitigate any
widespread fire weather concerns.
..Thornton.. 12/05/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast
today.
...Southeast...
Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably over the
next 24hr as strong west-southwesterly flow will extend across the
Gulf States. Broad weak height falls are expected across much of the
central/eastern CONUS as the mean upper trough position should
remain centered over the MS Valley. Given this flow regime, surface
cold front over GA/AL/FL Panhandle is expected to advance slowly
into the northern FL Peninsula where it will encounter somewhat
higher moisture content. Even so, convection is expected to struggle
to develop ahead of the wind shift, so the primary concern for
lighting will be with post frontal elevated convection. Forecast
soundings do not exhibit appreciable instability across this region,
and the midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep. At this
time it appears the risk of severe is too marginal to warrant severe
probabilities.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/05/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast
today.
...Southeast...
Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably over the
next 24hr as strong west-southwesterly flow will extend across the
Gulf States. Broad weak height falls are expected across much of the
central/eastern CONUS as the mean upper trough position should
remain centered over the MS Valley. Given this flow regime, surface
cold front over GA/AL/FL Panhandle is expected to advance slowly
into the northern FL Peninsula where it will encounter somewhat
higher moisture content. Even so, convection is expected to struggle
to develop ahead of the wind shift, so the primary concern for
lighting will be with post frontal elevated convection. Forecast
soundings do not exhibit appreciable instability across this region,
and the midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep. At this
time it appears the risk of severe is too marginal to warrant severe
probabilities.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/05/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are expected near/along the northern Gulf Coast
tonight.
...01z Update...
Low-amplitude short-wave trough is advancing east-northeast across
the lower MS Valley early this evening. A corridor of weak
convection is noted ahead of this feature from southeast LA into
southwest AL. The deepest, more robust updrafts over southeast LA
are generating a few flashes of lightning. Surface-based buoyancy is
not expected to materialize inland through sunrise, and any
thunderstorm activity near the Gulf Coast will be driven in large
part by warm advection, and should remain elevated. Midlevel
instability appears too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for
severe.
..Darrow.. 12/05/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are expected near/along the northern Gulf Coast
tonight.
...01z Update...
Low-amplitude short-wave trough is advancing east-northeast across
the lower MS Valley early this evening. A corridor of weak
convection is noted ahead of this feature from southeast LA into
southwest AL. The deepest, more robust updrafts over southeast LA
are generating a few flashes of lightning. Surface-based buoyancy is
not expected to materialize inland through sunrise, and any
thunderstorm activity near the Gulf Coast will be driven in large
part by warm advection, and should remain elevated. Midlevel
instability appears too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for
severe.
..Darrow.. 12/05/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
The upper-level pattern over the next 8 days will generally feature
a trough in the East with ridging in the West. This will favor
repeated cold air intrusions east of the Divide. Within the
upper-level ridging, temperatures will be warmer within the
Southwest into parts of the southern Plains. This could lead to
areas of modest fuel drying, though current fuel states are not
receptive given recent cool/cold temperatures and precipitation. As
surface cyclones/lee troughs develop in the southern High Plains,
some dry and breezy conditions will be possible. As noted, fuels are
not receptive and confidence in more than localized concerns is
quite low at this time.
..Wendt.. 12/04/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
The upper-level pattern over the next 8 days will generally feature
a trough in the East with ridging in the West. This will favor
repeated cold air intrusions east of the Divide. Within the
upper-level ridging, temperatures will be warmer within the
Southwest into parts of the southern Plains. This could lead to
areas of modest fuel drying, though current fuel states are not
receptive given recent cool/cold temperatures and precipitation. As
surface cyclones/lee troughs develop in the southern High Plains,
some dry and breezy conditions will be possible. As noted, fuels are
not receptive and confidence in more than localized concerns is
quite low at this time.
..Wendt.. 12/04/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
The upper-level pattern over the next 8 days will generally feature
a trough in the East with ridging in the West. This will favor
repeated cold air intrusions east of the Divide. Within the
upper-level ridging, temperatures will be warmer within the
Southwest into parts of the southern Plains. This could lead to
areas of modest fuel drying, though current fuel states are not
receptive given recent cool/cold temperatures and precipitation. As
surface cyclones/lee troughs develop in the southern High Plains,
some dry and breezy conditions will be possible. As noted, fuels are
not receptive and confidence in more than localized concerns is
quite low at this time.
..Wendt.. 12/04/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight.
...Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previously issued outlook.
..Smith.. 12/04/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025/
...Synopsis...
16 UTC surface observations along the Gulf Coast show a stalling
frontal boundary draped from the MS Delta region to just off the TX
Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along
and north of this boundary as modest isentropic ascent within the
925-850 mb layer continues ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave
currently over the central Plains. The combination of diabatic
cooling and building surface high pressure to the north of the
boundary should keep the frontal boundary, and any surface-based
buoyancy, offshore through much of the forecast period. While
elevated thunderstorms will likely continue across the central Gulf
Coast region through the day and into tonight, buoyancy profiles
will remain too limited to support robust convection. Sporadic
lightning strikes are noted across the Texarkana region, but latest
forecast soundings suggest that EL levels should remain near or
below -20 C, which limits confidence in lightning production beyond
the next couple of hours.
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight.
...Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previously issued outlook.
..Smith.. 12/04/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025/
...Synopsis...
16 UTC surface observations along the Gulf Coast show a stalling
frontal boundary draped from the MS Delta region to just off the TX
Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along
and north of this boundary as modest isentropic ascent within the
925-850 mb layer continues ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave
currently over the central Plains. The combination of diabatic
cooling and building surface high pressure to the north of the
boundary should keep the frontal boundary, and any surface-based
buoyancy, offshore through much of the forecast period. While
elevated thunderstorms will likely continue across the central Gulf
Coast region through the day and into tonight, buoyancy profiles
will remain too limited to support robust convection. Sporadic
lightning strikes are noted across the Texarkana region, but latest
forecast soundings suggest that EL levels should remain near or
below -20 C, which limits confidence in lightning production beyond
the next couple of hours.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast on
Saturday. Severe storms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
Diffuse mid-level troughing over the eastern US is again expected
Saturday as a secondary shortwave trough moves out of the Rockies
and over the Plains. Ahead of the western trough, a lee low will
deepen over parts of the central Plains, north of a stalled front
along the Gulf Coast. High pressure over the southeastern US will
weaken as a cool polar air mass slowly modifies.
As the surface low moves south toward the Gulf Coast late Saturday,
weak inland moisture advection is expected over parts of coastal
southeast TX and southern LA into early Sunday. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible given the ascent and weak buoyancy that
develops. However, most if not all of the convection should remain
offshore. Thus, while some elevated storms are possible inland, the
severe risk appears low.
..Lyons.. 12/04/2025
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast on
Saturday. Severe storms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
Diffuse mid-level troughing over the eastern US is again expected
Saturday as a secondary shortwave trough moves out of the Rockies
and over the Plains. Ahead of the western trough, a lee low will
deepen over parts of the central Plains, north of a stalled front
along the Gulf Coast. High pressure over the southeastern US will
weaken as a cool polar air mass slowly modifies.
As the surface low moves south toward the Gulf Coast late Saturday,
weak inland moisture advection is expected over parts of coastal
southeast TX and southern LA into early Sunday. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible given the ascent and weak buoyancy that
develops. However, most if not all of the convection should remain
offshore. Thus, while some elevated storms are possible inland, the
severe risk appears low.
..Lyons.. 12/04/2025
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