Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With large-scale upper troughing remaining dominant over the central/eastern CONUS today, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will prove hostile to thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Gleason.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With large-scale upper troughing remaining dominant over the central/eastern CONUS today, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will prove hostile to thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Gleason.. 01/19/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to be low during the Day 4-8 period. Some modest Gulf moisture will impinge on the coastal regions from TX into MS/AL/FL beginning Day 4/Thu. Warm advection will allow for showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, but weak forcing for ascent and only very minor instability will preclude severe potential. By Day 5-6/Fri-Sat, a deepening upper trough over the western U.S. will develop east across portions of the Plains and Midwest. A strong arctic cold front will move across the middle of the country, ushering in another punch of cold to very cold air and once again shunting Gulf moisture offshore. Some thunderstorm activity could occur ahead of this front across the Gulf coast states, but deeper moisture return is not expected and will be insufficient for severe storms. Surface high pressure and a cold/stable airmass will persist over much of the CONUS behind the arctic cold front on Days 7-8/Sun-Mon. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to be low during the Day 4-8 period. Some modest Gulf moisture will impinge on the coastal regions from TX into MS/AL/FL beginning Day 4/Thu. Warm advection will allow for showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, but weak forcing for ascent and only very minor instability will preclude severe potential. By Day 5-6/Fri-Sat, a deepening upper trough over the western U.S. will develop east across portions of the Plains and Midwest. A strong arctic cold front will move across the middle of the country, ushering in another punch of cold to very cold air and once again shunting Gulf moisture offshore. Some thunderstorm activity could occur ahead of this front across the Gulf coast states, but deeper moisture return is not expected and will be insufficient for severe storms. Surface high pressure and a cold/stable airmass will persist over much of the CONUS behind the arctic cold front on Days 7-8/Sun-Mon. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... The base of a trough oriented over the middle of the CONUS will swing eastward across TX into the Lower MS Valley on Wednesday. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across the TX coastal plain toward the Sabine Valley ahead of a surface cold front. Shallow convection/showers will be possible ahead of the front from coastal and east TX into the Mid-South. However, instability will be very weak inland and thunderstorm potential appears too low to include a general thunderstorm area. ..Leitman.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... The base of a trough oriented over the middle of the CONUS will swing eastward across TX into the Lower MS Valley on Wednesday. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across the TX coastal plain toward the Sabine Valley ahead of a surface cold front. Shallow convection/showers will be possible ahead of the front from coastal and east TX into the Mid-South. However, instability will be very weak inland and thunderstorm potential appears too low to include a general thunderstorm area. ..Leitman.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of enhanced northwest flow aloft, a midlevel impulse and related jet streak will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. At the same time, an accompanying surface low will track southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of the central High Plains. The combination of these winds and around 15-20 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Preceding snowfall in the vicinity (especially along the southern flank of the Elevated area) does cast some uncertainty on the overall fire risk, and fuel trends will be monitored for future adjustments to these highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of enhanced northwest flow aloft, a midlevel impulse and related jet streak will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. At the same time, an accompanying surface low will track southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of the central High Plains. The combination of these winds and around 15-20 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Preceding snowfall in the vicinity (especially along the southern flank of the Elevated area) does cast some uncertainty on the overall fire risk, and fuel trends will be monitored for future adjustments to these highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are generally low across the CONUS today. The one exception will be across parts of central into southwest FL, where dry post-frontal conditions are expected during the afternoon. A brief overlap of around 10 mph sustained northerly surface winds and 20-30 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are generally low across the CONUS today. The one exception will be across parts of central into southwest FL, where dry post-frontal conditions are expected during the afternoon. A brief overlap of around 10 mph sustained northerly surface winds and 20-30 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are generally low across the CONUS today. The one exception will be across parts of central into southwest FL, where dry post-frontal conditions are expected during the afternoon. A brief overlap of around 10 mph sustained northerly surface winds and 20-30 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... The next in a series of upper shortwave troughs will migrate from the Rockies toward the Upper Midwest and Plains on Tuesday. Surface cyclogenesis will occur across the northern and central High Plains as a result. This area of low pressure will lift northeast overnight toward the Great Lakes. Southerly surface winds will develop in response to these features across the western Gulf Basin, allowing for meager airmass modification and northward transport of minor boundary layer moisture across portions of South TX and the coastal plain vicinity by early Wednesday. However, poor instability and weak forcing for ascent will preclude thunderstorm potential. Elsewhere, a cold, dry, and stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... The next in a series of upper shortwave troughs will migrate from the Rockies toward the Upper Midwest and Plains on Tuesday. Surface cyclogenesis will occur across the northern and central High Plains as a result. This area of low pressure will lift northeast overnight toward the Great Lakes. Southerly surface winds will develop in response to these features across the western Gulf Basin, allowing for meager airmass modification and northward transport of minor boundary layer moisture across portions of South TX and the coastal plain vicinity by early Wednesday. However, poor instability and weak forcing for ascent will preclude thunderstorm potential. Elsewhere, a cold, dry, and stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... The next in a series of upper shortwave troughs will migrate from the Rockies toward the Upper Midwest and Plains on Tuesday. Surface cyclogenesis will occur across the northern and central High Plains as a result. This area of low pressure will lift northeast overnight toward the Great Lakes. Southerly surface winds will develop in response to these features across the western Gulf Basin, allowing for meager airmass modification and northward transport of minor boundary layer moisture across portions of South TX and the coastal plain vicinity by early Wednesday. However, poor instability and weak forcing for ascent will preclude thunderstorm potential. Elsewhere, a cold, dry, and stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... The next in a series of upper shortwave troughs will migrate from the Rockies toward the Upper Midwest and Plains on Tuesday. Surface cyclogenesis will occur across the northern and central High Plains as a result. This area of low pressure will lift northeast overnight toward the Great Lakes. Southerly surface winds will develop in response to these features across the western Gulf Basin, allowing for meager airmass modification and northward transport of minor boundary layer moisture across portions of South TX and the coastal plain vicinity by early Wednesday. However, poor instability and weak forcing for ascent will preclude thunderstorm potential. Elsewhere, a cold, dry, and stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the Gulf Coast region, as another cold front advances southeastward into the Southeast. Behind this front, a large surface high will settle into the central states. This will reinforce a cold and dry airmass, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the continental U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the Gulf Coast region, as another cold front advances southeastward into the Southeast. Behind this front, a large surface high will settle into the central states. This will reinforce a cold and dry airmass, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the continental U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the Gulf Coast region, as another cold front advances southeastward into the Southeast. Behind this front, a large surface high will settle into the central states. This will reinforce a cold and dry airmass, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the continental U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the Gulf Coast region, as another cold front advances southeastward into the Southeast. Behind this front, a large surface high will settle into the central states. This will reinforce a cold and dry airmass, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the continental U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. this evening and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will move across the east-central U.S. tonight, as a cyclonic flow pattern remains in place over much of nation. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located over the Great Plains and Southeast. This dry and cold airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms today and tonight across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 01/19/2026 Read more