Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook were needed. A surface trough across the Central Plains and surface anticylone over southern TX will promote dry, west-southwest flow across portions of the Southern Plains through this afternoon. Clear skies will allow for more efficient mixing of a very dry, albeit shallow boundary layer through the afternoon resulting in sustained west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity falling into the 10-20% range over central/northwestern TX and southern OK. Model guidance continues to suggest a locally critical fire weather threat evolving across northwest TX this afternoon, but sustained 20 mph winds should be transitory limiting a broader impact. ..Williams.. 01/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions with winds out of the west-southwest owing to a surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast will support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions of Central Texas into southern Oklahoma. ...Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma... Downslope west-southwesterly surface winds across western and central Texas will reach 15-20 MPH in a dry post-frontal airmass characterized by relative humidity of 10-20%. With fuels sufficiently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread, Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast. Locally Critical conditions may occur where winds exceed 20 MPH for short periods of time, though 00Z HREF guidance suggests low confidence in 3+ hours sustained winds of 20 MPH which would preclude additional highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook were needed. A surface trough across the Central Plains and surface anticylone over southern TX will promote dry, west-southwest flow across portions of the Southern Plains through this afternoon. Clear skies will allow for more efficient mixing of a very dry, albeit shallow boundary layer through the afternoon resulting in sustained west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity falling into the 10-20% range over central/northwestern TX and southern OK. Model guidance continues to suggest a locally critical fire weather threat evolving across northwest TX this afternoon, but sustained 20 mph winds should be transitory limiting a broader impact. ..Williams.. 01/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions with winds out of the west-southwest owing to a surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast will support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions of Central Texas into southern Oklahoma. ...Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma... Downslope west-southwesterly surface winds across western and central Texas will reach 15-20 MPH in a dry post-frontal airmass characterized by relative humidity of 10-20%. With fuels sufficiently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread, Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast. Locally Critical conditions may occur where winds exceed 20 MPH for short periods of time, though 00Z HREF guidance suggests low confidence in 3+ hours sustained winds of 20 MPH which would preclude additional highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0026 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0026 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Areas affected...Portions of far southeast AL and the western FL Panhandle into southwest and central GA Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 181206Z - 181700Z SUMMARY...Rain will transition to snow this morning, with snowfall rates around 0.5 to locally 1 inch per hour possible for a few hours before diminishing. DISCUSSION...A secondary surface cold front will continue to advance southeastward across AL, GA, and the FL Panhandle this morning. A plume of precipitation is ongoing ahead of/near the front across southern/southeast AL into much of southern/central GA and parts of the FL Panhandle. This activity is being aided by large-scale ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across the Southeast and the entrance region of a pronounced southwesterly mid/upper-level jet. Recent RAP/NAM forecast soundings suggest that additional modest low/mid-level cooling of already saturated profile will support a quick rain to snow transition this morning across parts of southeast AL into southwest/central GA and the FL Panhandle. Latest (12Z) surface observations show this transition already occurring across southeast AL, west-central GA, and the western FL Panhandle, where temperatures have fallen into the low to mid 30s. Expect this trend to continue farther east in southwest/central GA through the remainder of the morning. While snowfall rates are not forecast to be overly high, most guidance suggests that 0.5 to locally 1 inch per hour rates may occur within the most intense portion of the precipitation band. These enhanced snowfall rates should not last more than a few hours in any given location, as rapidly drying low/mid-levels on the back side of the shortwave trough will quickly erode precipitation from west to east through about 17Z (11 AM CST/Noon EST). ..Gleason.. 01/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 30938620 32248492 33078410 33188303 32838259 32218282 31528361 31058440 30698525 30518585 30658622 30938620 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion including South Florida... A longwave trough will remain prominent east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough crossing the Southeast, in addition to multiple clipper-type troughs over the Upper Midwest. The potential for isolated thunderstorms will exist across the far southern Florida Peninsula and near the Keys to the south of a cold front, somewhat enhanced by diurnal heating and a moist pre-frontal air mass with lower 70s F surface dewpoints. However, most of the thunderstorm potential should focus offshore, and that will particularly be the case by late today as low-level winds veer and the front progresses offshore. ..Guyer/Moore.. 01/18/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion including South Florida... A longwave trough will remain prominent east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough crossing the Southeast, in addition to multiple clipper-type troughs over the Upper Midwest. The potential for isolated thunderstorms will exist across the far southern Florida Peninsula and near the Keys to the south of a cold front, somewhat enhanced by diurnal heating and a moist pre-frontal air mass with lower 70s F surface dewpoints. However, most of the thunderstorm potential should focus offshore, and that will particularly be the case by late today as low-level winds veer and the front progresses offshore. ..Guyer/Moore.. 01/18/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion including South Florida... A longwave trough will remain prominent east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough crossing the Southeast, in addition to multiple clipper-type troughs over the Upper Midwest. The potential for isolated thunderstorms will exist across the far southern Florida Peninsula and near the Keys to the south of a cold front, somewhat enhanced by diurnal heating and a moist pre-frontal air mass with lower 70s F surface dewpoints. However, most of the thunderstorm potential should focus offshore, and that will particularly be the case by late today as low-level winds veer and the front progresses offshore. ..Guyer/Moore.. 01/18/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist today over the central and eastern CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will pivot quickly east-northeastward across the Deep South and Atlantic Seaboard through this evening as a secondary/reinforcing cold front advances southeastward across the remainder of the central Gulf Coast states and FL Peninsula. Low-topped convection ongoing this morning over the east-central Gulf will struggle to attain sufficient height to support charge separation and lightning as it approaches the west-central FL Peninsula (Tampa vicinity), especially given the poor lapse rates and multiple stable layers aloft observed in the 12Z TBW sounding. Generally 60s surface dewpoints are in place this morning ahead of the front across south FL and the Keys. As daytime heating occurs, adequate instability should develop to support isolated thunderstorms over these areas. Low-level flow will veer through the afternoon with the approach of the cold front, and greater thunderstorm potential should eventually focus offshore. With poor lapse rates aloft limiting updraft strength, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason.. 01/18/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist today over the central and eastern CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will pivot quickly east-northeastward across the Deep South and Atlantic Seaboard through this evening as a secondary/reinforcing cold front advances southeastward across the remainder of the central Gulf Coast states and FL Peninsula. Low-topped convection ongoing this morning over the east-central Gulf will struggle to attain sufficient height to support charge separation and lightning as it approaches the west-central FL Peninsula (Tampa vicinity), especially given the poor lapse rates and multiple stable layers aloft observed in the 12Z TBW sounding. Generally 60s surface dewpoints are in place this morning ahead of the front across south FL and the Keys. As daytime heating occurs, adequate instability should develop to support isolated thunderstorms over these areas. Low-level flow will veer through the afternoon with the approach of the cold front, and greater thunderstorm potential should eventually focus offshore. With poor lapse rates aloft limiting updraft strength, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason.. 01/18/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist today over the central and eastern CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will pivot quickly east-northeastward across the Deep South and Atlantic Seaboard through this evening as a secondary/reinforcing cold front advances southeastward across the remainder of the central Gulf Coast states and FL Peninsula. Low-topped convection ongoing this morning over the east-central Gulf will struggle to attain sufficient height to support charge separation and lightning as it approaches the west-central FL Peninsula (Tampa vicinity), especially given the poor lapse rates and multiple stable layers aloft observed in the 12Z TBW sounding. Generally 60s surface dewpoints are in place this morning ahead of the front across south FL and the Keys. As daytime heating occurs, adequate instability should develop to support isolated thunderstorms over these areas. Low-level flow will veer through the afternoon with the approach of the cold front, and greater thunderstorm potential should eventually focus offshore. With poor lapse rates aloft limiting updraft strength, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason.. 01/18/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist today over the central and eastern CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will pivot quickly east-northeastward across the Deep South and Atlantic Seaboard through this evening as a secondary/reinforcing cold front advances southeastward across the remainder of the central Gulf Coast states and FL Peninsula. Low-topped convection ongoing this morning over the east-central Gulf will struggle to attain sufficient height to support charge separation and lightning as it approaches the west-central FL Peninsula (Tampa vicinity), especially given the poor lapse rates and multiple stable layers aloft observed in the 12Z TBW sounding. Generally 60s surface dewpoints are in place this morning ahead of the front across south FL and the Keys. As daytime heating occurs, adequate instability should develop to support isolated thunderstorms over these areas. Low-level flow will veer through the afternoon with the approach of the cold front, and greater thunderstorm potential should eventually focus offshore. With poor lapse rates aloft limiting updraft strength, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason.. 01/18/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist today over the central and eastern CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will pivot quickly east-northeastward across the Deep South and Atlantic Seaboard through this evening as a secondary/reinforcing cold front advances southeastward across the remainder of the central Gulf Coast states and FL Peninsula. Low-topped convection ongoing this morning over the east-central Gulf will struggle to attain sufficient height to support charge separation and lightning as it approaches the west-central FL Peninsula (Tampa vicinity), especially given the poor lapse rates and multiple stable layers aloft observed in the 12Z TBW sounding. Generally 60s surface dewpoints are in place this morning ahead of the front across south FL and the Keys. As daytime heating occurs, adequate instability should develop to support isolated thunderstorms over these areas. Low-level flow will veer through the afternoon with the approach of the cold front, and greater thunderstorm potential should eventually focus offshore. With poor lapse rates aloft limiting updraft strength, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason.. 01/18/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and severe potential is low. Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the end of the forecast period. However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and severe potential is low. Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the end of the forecast period. However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and severe potential is low. Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the end of the forecast period. However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and severe potential is low. Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the end of the forecast period. However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave embedded within broader-scale upper troughing will move southeast across the Rockies into the Plains on Tuesday. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected over the central High Plains. This low will develop south/southeast into TX overnight and ensuing low-level south/southeasterly winds will transport modest Gulf moisture northward into portions of south TX late in the period. Forecast soundings suggest moisture will be relatively shallow and warmer midlevel temperatures will limit instability. While some warm advection showers could occur over TX Tuesday night into early Wednesday ahead of an southeastward advancing cold front, thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 01/18/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave embedded within broader-scale upper troughing will move southeast across the Rockies into the Plains on Tuesday. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected over the central High Plains. This low will develop south/southeast into TX overnight and ensuing low-level south/southeasterly winds will transport modest Gulf moisture northward into portions of south TX late in the period. Forecast soundings suggest moisture will be relatively shallow and warmer midlevel temperatures will limit instability. While some warm advection showers could occur over TX Tuesday night into early Wednesday ahead of an southeastward advancing cold front, thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 01/18/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave embedded within broader-scale upper troughing will move southeast across the Rockies into the Plains on Tuesday. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected over the central High Plains. This low will develop south/southeast into TX overnight and ensuing low-level south/southeasterly winds will transport modest Gulf moisture northward into portions of south TX late in the period. Forecast soundings suggest moisture will be relatively shallow and warmer midlevel temperatures will limit instability. While some warm advection showers could occur over TX Tuesday night into early Wednesday ahead of an southeastward advancing cold front, thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 01/18/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave embedded within broader-scale upper troughing will move southeast across the Rockies into the Plains on Tuesday. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected over the central High Plains. This low will develop south/southeast into TX overnight and ensuing low-level south/southeasterly winds will transport modest Gulf moisture northward into portions of south TX late in the period. Forecast soundings suggest moisture will be relatively shallow and warmer midlevel temperatures will limit instability. While some warm advection showers could occur over TX Tuesday night into early Wednesday ahead of an southeastward advancing cold front, thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 01/18/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing and expansive surface high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS on Monday. Continental low-level trajectories and cold temperatures will result in a dry and stable boundary layer, precluding thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/18/2026 Read more