Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Central High Plains... An approaching mid-level wave and associated increasing northwest flow aloft, coinciding with a deepening surface low in the lee of the Southern Rockies will support downslope enhanced west/northwest surface winds across portions of the central High Plains Tuesday. Only minor changes were needed to the existing Elevated highlights across far northeastern CO, extreme southeastern WY, southwestern NE and far northwestern KS to account for recent snowfall from the CO Front Range into western KS. Farther south, downslope enhanced drying and warming should result in relative humidity as low as 10 percent Tuesday. This aligned with sustained west winds of 15-20 mph and dry fuels will support at least elevated fire weather conditions for several hours in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo Range. Locally critical conditions are possible where wind speeds of 25 mph develop in favored terrain gaps. Thus, Elevated highlights were introduced across portions of south-central CO. ..Williams.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of enhanced northwest flow aloft, a midlevel impulse and related jet streak will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. At the same time, an accompanying surface low will track southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of the central High Plains. The combination of these winds and around 15-20 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Preceding snowfall in the vicinity (especially along the southern flank of the Elevated area) does cast some uncertainty on the overall fire risk, and fuel trends will be monitored for future adjustments to these highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0028 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR PENNSYLVANIA INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0028 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Areas affected...Pennsylvania into western New York Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 191650Z - 192045Z SUMMARY...Occasional visibility reductions associated with moderate/heavy snow showers and gusty winds may spread east across parts of Pennsylvania and into western New York through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...A cluster of snow showers migrating across eastern OH and western PA over the past few hours have yielded occasional visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile per regional web cams and ASOS observations. These visibility reductions are largely being driven by moderate to heavy snowfall rates within shallow, but convectively augmented, snow showers ahead of a progressive mid-level wave evident in GOES imagery. Strong cold advection through 850 mb will continue to support 25-35 mph wind gusts, which will further contribute to periods of low visibility by blowing falling snow and the antecedent snow pack in place across western PA. As such, periods of snow squall conditions should spread east/northeast through mid-afternoon in tandem with the upper wave and the surging low-level cold air mass. ..Moore.. 01/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 40088011 40158059 40468072 41068072 41588055 41898026 42797841 42867780 42807704 42447635 42117596 41627592 41247586 40767613 40477662 40088011 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes. ..Squitieri.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Discussion... Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes. ..Squitieri.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Discussion... Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes. ..Squitieri.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Discussion... Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes. ..Squitieri.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Discussion... Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that amplified large-scale mid-level troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America during this period. However, it appears that the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within an amplifying belt, including building mid-level ridging across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a notable developing mid-level low may continue to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast. It appears that this may be accompanied by initially elevated moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, across coastal areas into the Sierra Nevada. However, the mid-level cold core, supportive of better boundary-layer destabilization and the development of thermodynamic profiles potentially more conducive to thunderstorm development, will likely remain offshore through at least this period. Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return may continue to overspread parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. It appears that weak boundary-layer destabilization, and one potential area of thunderstorm development, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of an initial perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, will remain offshore of coastal areas. However, elevated inland moistening beneath residually cold mid-level air might become sufficient for convection occasionally becoming capable of producing lightning by late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that amplified large-scale mid-level troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America during this period. However, it appears that the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within an amplifying belt, including building mid-level ridging across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a notable developing mid-level low may continue to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast. It appears that this may be accompanied by initially elevated moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, across coastal areas into the Sierra Nevada. However, the mid-level cold core, supportive of better boundary-layer destabilization and the development of thermodynamic profiles potentially more conducive to thunderstorm development, will likely remain offshore through at least this period. Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return may continue to overspread parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. It appears that weak boundary-layer destabilization, and one potential area of thunderstorm development, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of an initial perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, will remain offshore of coastal areas. However, elevated inland moistening beneath residually cold mid-level air might become sufficient for convection occasionally becoming capable of producing lightning by late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that amplified large-scale mid-level troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America during this period. However, it appears that the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within an amplifying belt, including building mid-level ridging across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a notable developing mid-level low may continue to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast. It appears that this may be accompanied by initially elevated moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, across coastal areas into the Sierra Nevada. However, the mid-level cold core, supportive of better boundary-layer destabilization and the development of thermodynamic profiles potentially more conducive to thunderstorm development, will likely remain offshore through at least this period. Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return may continue to overspread parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. It appears that weak boundary-layer destabilization, and one potential area of thunderstorm development, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of an initial perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, will remain offshore of coastal areas. However, elevated inland moistening beneath residually cold mid-level air might become sufficient for convection occasionally becoming capable of producing lightning by late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Tuesday through Tuesday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... Seasonably cold and/or dry conditions will generally persist beneath large-scale mid-level troughing encompassing much of North America (across and east of the Rockies). While little change in amplitude is forecast through this period, models continue to indicate that an initially notable ridge near/just offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast is in the process of weakening. As a developing low within splitting troughing to the south-southwest of this feature slowly digs toward the southern California coast, it appears that weak mid/upper troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific may shift inland across southern Baja and central Mexico Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/Texas coastal plain into Ark-La-Tex... It appears that the evolving pattern will allow for increasing lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return across the region by late Tuesday through Tuesday night. This is likely to mainly emanate from the subtropical eastern Pacific at mid-levels, and off a modifying southwestern Gulf boundary-layer at lower levels. While forecast soundings suggest that this may contribute to developing layers of weak conditional instability, it appears that weak to negligible forcing for ascent will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, even offshore of mid/lower Texas coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Tuesday through Tuesday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... Seasonably cold and/or dry conditions will generally persist beneath large-scale mid-level troughing encompassing much of North America (across and east of the Rockies). While little change in amplitude is forecast through this period, models continue to indicate that an initially notable ridge near/just offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast is in the process of weakening. As a developing low within splitting troughing to the south-southwest of this feature slowly digs toward the southern California coast, it appears that weak mid/upper troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific may shift inland across southern Baja and central Mexico Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/Texas coastal plain into Ark-La-Tex... It appears that the evolving pattern will allow for increasing lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return across the region by late Tuesday through Tuesday night. This is likely to mainly emanate from the subtropical eastern Pacific at mid-levels, and off a modifying southwestern Gulf boundary-layer at lower levels. While forecast soundings suggest that this may contribute to developing layers of weak conditional instability, it appears that weak to negligible forcing for ascent will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, even offshore of mid/lower Texas coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Tuesday through Tuesday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... Seasonably cold and/or dry conditions will generally persist beneath large-scale mid-level troughing encompassing much of North America (across and east of the Rockies). While little change in amplitude is forecast through this period, models continue to indicate that an initially notable ridge near/just offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast is in the process of weakening. As a developing low within splitting troughing to the south-southwest of this feature slowly digs toward the southern California coast, it appears that weak mid/upper troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific may shift inland across southern Baja and central Mexico Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/Texas coastal plain into Ark-La-Tex... It appears that the evolving pattern will allow for increasing lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return across the region by late Tuesday through Tuesday night. This is likely to mainly emanate from the subtropical eastern Pacific at mid-levels, and off a modifying southwestern Gulf boundary-layer at lower levels. While forecast soundings suggest that this may contribute to developing layers of weak conditional instability, it appears that weak to negligible forcing for ascent will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, even offshore of mid/lower Texas coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Florida Panhandle... Dry, post-frontal northerly to northeasterly surface winds of 10 mph (15 mph locally) across FL coinciding with RH reductions in the 20-30% range will yield an increased fire weather concern over the western/southwestern FL Panhandle through the afternoon. However, cooler temperatures and marginally receptive fuels should limit a more significant fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are generally low across the CONUS today. The one exception will be across parts of central into southwest FL, where dry post-frontal conditions are expected during the afternoon. A brief overlap of around 10 mph sustained northerly surface winds and 20-30 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Florida Panhandle... Dry, post-frontal northerly to northeasterly surface winds of 10 mph (15 mph locally) across FL coinciding with RH reductions in the 20-30% range will yield an increased fire weather concern over the western/southwestern FL Panhandle through the afternoon. However, cooler temperatures and marginally receptive fuels should limit a more significant fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are generally low across the CONUS today. The one exception will be across parts of central into southwest FL, where dry post-frontal conditions are expected during the afternoon. A brief overlap of around 10 mph sustained northerly surface winds and 20-30 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Florida Panhandle... Dry, post-frontal northerly to northeasterly surface winds of 10 mph (15 mph locally) across FL coinciding with RH reductions in the 20-30% range will yield an increased fire weather concern over the western/southwestern FL Panhandle through the afternoon. However, cooler temperatures and marginally receptive fuels should limit a more significant fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are generally low across the CONUS today. The one exception will be across parts of central into southwest FL, where dry post-frontal conditions are expected during the afternoon. A brief overlap of around 10 mph sustained northerly surface winds and 20-30 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Florida Panhandle... Dry, post-frontal northerly to northeasterly surface winds of 10 mph (15 mph locally) across FL coinciding with RH reductions in the 20-30% range will yield an increased fire weather concern over the western/southwestern FL Panhandle through the afternoon. However, cooler temperatures and marginally receptive fuels should limit a more significant fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are generally low across the CONUS today. The one exception will be across parts of central into southwest FL, where dry post-frontal conditions are expected during the afternoon. A brief overlap of around 10 mph sustained northerly surface winds and 20-30 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Guyer/Moore.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Guyer/Moore.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Guyer/Moore.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Guyer/Moore.. 01/19/2026 Read more